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Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BOX NWS Office
FXUS61 KBOX 030556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
156 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

A strong backdoor cold front moves south across the region
tonight, followed by unseasonably cool weather this weekend with
gusty NE winds and periods of showers, especially eastern New
England. Unsettled weather may linger into early next week,
depending on the location of where low pressure sets up. A
drying trend with moderating temperatures are possible mid to
late next week.


150 AM update...

What`s left from evening convection is just a few showers
moving south across SE MA and W CT. These showers will dissipate
across Cape Cod, then expect additional showers to develop and
move south across northern and eastern MA toward daybreak. These
showers are expected to develop ahead of a strong shortwave
moving south across northern New Eng.

Backdoor front has pushed through CT valley with N/NE winds
across the region. NE winds will increase through daybreak with
gusts 25-35 mph developing along the eastern MA coast. Lows by
morning will be 50-55.


* Strong backdoor front yields dramatic temp drop and
  accompanied by a chilly and gusty NE wind


Good column drying as short wave trough moves across the area.
However low level NE jet may produce scattered showers coming
onshore into eastern MA. Elsewhere, cold pool aloft will
maintain lots of clouds along with the chance of a few light
scattered showers. By no means a washout. The bigger story
tomorrow will be the cold air behind the departing short wave.
925 mb temps fall to +3C to +5C across eastern MA, not as cold
westward into CT and western MA. This combined with lots of
clouds will limit highs to the mid to upper 50s across eastern
MA, but with a gusty NE wind it will feel closer to 50! Dramatic
temp change with two seasons in 24 hrs. Not as chilly westward
with highs in the low 60s across the CT River Valley, but still
cooler than normal.

Given the building seas/rough surf we issued a high surf
advisory for eastern MA. We realize not an ideal beach day
tomorrow, but dangerous conditions for anyone observing the
rough surf from jetties given large breaking waves onto rocks
and other near shore structures.

Saturday night...

Mainly dry but chilly, with lows in the 40s, however feeling
much cooler across southeast MA given gusty NNE winds. This
onshore flow will continue to offer a risk for scattered showers
over southeast MA.


Some improvement in the agreement among model guidance for late this
weekend into early next week, but that is not to say the details are
locked in. The main driver of our forecast will be our location
relative to a mid level cutoff over the North Atlantic. Expecting
this cutoff to eventually rotate offshore towards Tuesday, only to
be replaced by another cutoff rotating into our region from
southeast Canada. This second cutoff then becomes the dominant
feature through the end of the next work week.

Precipitation chances will be highest towards the east coast into
Monday, then transition to a more widespread risk mid week. This is
not to say every day will be a total washout through this portion of
the forecast. The greatest daily risk for showers and possible
thunderstorms will be more towards the late morning into the
afternoon hours.

Temperature-wise, looking at near to below normal high temperatures
across southern New England. Trending warmer though the work week.
Near normal low temperatures expected.


Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12z...

Widespread MVFR/IFR. Scattered showers redeveloping and moving
south into northern and eastern MA toward daybreak. Increasing
NE winds overnight with gusts to 25 kt developing along the
coast and 15-20 kt elsewhere.

Today...Moderate confidence.

IFR cigs improving to MVFR in the afternoon. Scattered showers,
mainly across eastern MA. NE gusts to 25 kt BOS-PVD corridor
and up to 30 kt Cape/Islands.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Cigs improving to VFR in the CT valley, but MVFR persisting
across the coastal plain. Scattered showers in eastern MA. NE
wind gusts 25-30 kt near the coast gradually diminishing

Sunday...Moderate confidence.

Widespread MVFR cigs with increasing showers across eastern MA,
possibly reaching central MA and RI. Mainly VFR CT valley.
Increasing N winds with 25-30 kt gusts developing along the
coast and up to 20 kt further inland.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR cigs this
morning should improve to MVFR.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.


Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday night...

Passage of backdoor front this evening, increasing NE winds
will develop with gusts 25-30 kt later tonight through Sat. May
even see a few marginal gale force gusts approaching 35 kt.
Small craft advisories are in effect for all waters. Low risk of
a few early evening thunderstorms near shore. Areas of fog
around Nantucket have thinned at 4 pm but will return after
sunset, before moving offshore with the wind shift to NE late
tonight with the backdoor passage.

Scattered showers Sat and Sat night, but the bigger story will
be the NNE winds 20-30 kt and large/rough seas.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.


High astro tides this weekend (11+ ft MLLW for Boston) combined
with strong NE flow may yield minor coastal flooding for the
eastern MA coastline. The tides of greatest concern are the
Saturday night and Sunday night tides around midnight. There
could be three night tides (Sat night/Sun night and possibly Mon
night) with minor coastal flooding.


Below are record highs for June 2nd.

June 2nd...

BDL...91/1961 - new record today of 94
ORH...89/1892, 1895 and 1920. - tied the record today at 89.


MA...High Surf Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ230-231-250-
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237-
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ236.



NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion


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