Area Forecast Discussion

617 FXUS61 KBOX 141916 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 316 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather overspreads the region tonight, as high pressure builds into the area. Maritime high provides dry but cool temperatures Sunday, along with mostly cloudy conditions. Cool weather lingers into Monday, followed by a warming trend, with heat and humidity peaking Thursday, highs 85-90. Mainly dry weather next week, except Thu, with the risk of thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Lingering showers push offshore this evening * Cloudy, overnight temps in the mid 50s Today: A few showers across RI, South Coast, Cape and Islands linger through the early evening as a surface high pressure sits over our southern waters. Light NE winds remain through the night as onshore flow continues. Predominately cloudy skies as temperatures drop into the low to mid 50s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Drier, but still cool for Sunday Dry conditions are expected Sunday while still under the influence of the surface high. It will be another cool day, especially along the east coast, with cool temperatures aloft and partly cloudy skies. Sunday`s temps in the mid 60s across the eastern coast, Cape and Islands, and upper 60s to low 70s for the interior. A weak wave moves across Sunday night, keeping shower chances confined to the southern waters. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 235 PM update... Key Points * Seasonably cool Mon, then a warming trend Tue & Wed w/heat & humidity peaking Thu (85-90). More comfortable Fri & next Sat * Dry weather much of next week, except Thu, chance of thunderstorms (possibly severe) with approaching cold front Temperatures...robust northern stream across southeast Canada yields WNW flow over New England early next week, suppressing frontal boundary south of the region. This yields cool maritime high into New England. Very comfortable conditions to begin the week Monday, with highs in the 70s (near 80 in the CT River Valley). Dew pts in the 50s will yield comfortable humidity and overnight temps. By Tue, mid/upper flow becomes more SW, supporting a warming trend with heat and humidity peaking Thu. Highs surging to 85-90 and dew pts in the low 70s, definitely a true summer/warm sector airmass! EC & CMC ensembles support 20-40% probs of 90+ away from the south coast, while the GEFS indicate up to 50-60% probs! FROPA sometime late Thu/Thu night yields more comfortable conditions Friday (highs 80- 85, with dew pts in the 50s and 60s), possibly lingering into next Sat. That would be quite the switch from previous Saturdays. Precipitation...mainly a dry week ahead (discounting the somewhat wet NAM Mon & Tue) with the main risk of precip being Thursday, with potential thunderstorms ahead of a FROPA. In fact, taking a closer look, ensembles offer impressive shear/cape setup, with 40-45 kt of 500 mb flow across New England, fairly strong for late June. Also, with highs 85-90 combined with dew pts in the low 70s, robust capes will develop ahead of the front. Machine learning (ML) probs from NSSL guidance for severe weather are fairly high for a day 6 forecast. Something to watch as we approach Thu. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Tonight...Moderate confidence. Lingering showers across the South Coast, Cape, and Islands push offshore later this evening. MVFR cigs continuing through the evening, lifting around 02Z-03Z, except the Cape and Islands lifting early Sunday morning. Sunday...Moderate Confidence MVFR/VFR. Dry with light NE winds. Sunday Night...Moderate Confidence VFR. Light ESE winds. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs should maintain VFR despite the onshore flow as high pressure to the north brings in drier air. ENE winds slowly shifts ESE throughout Sunday. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Lower confidence on cigs, but should stay between MVFR and VFR through the night. VFR cigs for Sunday. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Monday Night through Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Juneteenth: Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday night... SCA is effect across the southern waters with ENE winds around 25 kts and brief 3-5 ft seas. Seas and winds trend downward into early Sunday morning. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McMinn/RM/Nocera NEAR TERM...McMinn/RM SHORT TERM...McMinn/RM LONG TERM...Nocera AVIATION...McMinn/RM/Nocera MARINE...Belk/McMinn/RM/Nocera NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion