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Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BOX NWS Office
FXUS61 KBOX 242341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
741 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

High pressure is bringing more seasonable and less humid
conditions continue into Wednesday. Along with gradual warming
the weather becomes more unsettled Friday through the Memorial
Day weekend, with a chance of showers or thunderstorms each day.


8PM update...

Forecast remains on track for the most part. Noting that
afternoon mixing not as deep as previously forecast. Given that
dewpoints are a bit higher at this time, even with early
decoupling mins may be a little bit warmer. Still plenty of room
for radiational cooling though, so did not stray too far from
the coolest guidance. Clouds not an issue, upper lvl moisture
remains mostly SW until close to sunrise.


The center of this high pressure shifts slowly southward
tomorrow with light winds during the day becoming southeast as
the afternoon progresses. Seabreeze has a good chance again
tomorrow. Dry and cool into tomorrow night though some increase
in mid level clouds may start to come into play as return flow
becomes more established as the axis of the surface ridge shifts
southeast away from the area.



* Turning more unsettled with a chance of showers or a
  thunderstorm Friday through Sunday.

Overnight and 24.12Z model coming to better agreement with the
large scale amplification expected late week. Temporal issues
from previous runs are largely become resolved as Pacific wave
energy is now being better sampled. ECMWF/UKMET now in fairly
good agreement on the timing of the mid-CONUS cutoff development
late tonight into Wed and its much slower progress toward the E
into the memorial day weekend. GFS is now a fast outlier, so
will lean more heavily on the international guidance this run.
As expected there are still some issues resolving the gradual
reopening to an open wave late weekend, but this can be captured
with a blend.


Thu and Thu night
Continued mid lvl height rises thanks to upstream warm
advection will help keep convective activity at bay through the
period. Meanwhile, sfc warm front will be shifting N into Canada
during the period allowing for S-SW return flow. Modified
airmass will allow for some mid-upper 70s by day away from the S
coast where the on-shore return flow will keep temps a bit
lower. Overnight, with dewpoints rising to the mid-upper 50s
will also likely see some marine enhanced stratus and fog as
offshore SSTs remain in the low/mid 50s. S coastal regions will
be most likely to see this.

Fri and Fri night
Continued warming outside of marine/cloud debris as return flow
continues. Should see enough breaks of sun for interior
locations to once again approach 80F by day with low-mid 70s
near shore. Height falls and MUCAPE values peak mainly W of S
New England, so its likely most convective activity will remain
W, although gradual eastward shift and some upper lvl support
could lead to overnight showers and TSRA, especially W MA/CT.
Continued lower lvl moisture increase suggests another night
contending with some fog/stratus.

Memorial Day Weekend
Convective debris/SHRA/TSRA continues as upper lvl cutoff
pushes toward the mid-Atlantic. Clouds, thanks to column PWATs
up to around 1.5 and upper lvl cyclonic curvature, will be
persistent threat throughout the weekend so will keep temps down
to about the mid 70s inland, and cooler near the coastlines.
Mid lvl lapse rates are modest, with some MUCAPE could yield a
diurnal risk of afternoon SHRA and TSRA Sat and Sun, but this
will be moderated by clouds or any marine influence. Not
expecting a washout, but will have to dodge some precipitation,
potentially heavy in spots.

Early next week
Although timing uncertainties remain, a gradual opening and
eastward shift of the cutoff is expected, along with some
ridging upstream allowing for a return to more zonal flow.
Warmer and drier temps expected, especially as S-SW flow returns
again Tue.


Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight and Wednesday...High confidence.
Sea breezes will recede overnight with light to calm winds. Not
anticipating fog at interior sites overnight.

VFR conditions prevail tomorrow. Sea breezes likely get a
slightly earlier start Wednesday, but southerly flow will begin
to develop very late tomorrow or overnight Wednesday night.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Friday Night: Areas MVFR and IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely,
chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.


Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High pressure maintains a firm grip through tomorrow night.
This will maintain relatively light winds and seas with good

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.




SHORT TERM...Manning

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion


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