Area Forecast Discussion

000 FXUS61 KBOX 030556 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 156 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A strong backdoor cold front moves south across the region tonight, followed by unseasonably cool weather this weekend with gusty NE winds and periods of showers, especially eastern New England. Unsettled weather may linger into early next week, depending on the location of where low pressure sets up. A drying trend with moderating temperatures are possible mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 150 AM update... What`s left from evening convection is just a few showers moving south across SE MA and W CT. These showers will dissipate across Cape Cod, then expect additional showers to develop and move south across northern and eastern MA toward daybreak. These showers are expected to develop ahead of a strong shortwave moving south across northern New Eng. Backdoor front has pushed through CT valley with N/NE winds across the region. NE winds will increase through daybreak with gusts 25-35 mph developing along the eastern MA coast. Lows by morning will be 50-55. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... * Strong backdoor front yields dramatic temp drop and accompanied by a chilly and gusty NE wind Saturday... Good column drying as short wave trough moves across the area. However low level NE jet may produce scattered showers coming onshore into eastern MA. Elsewhere, cold pool aloft will maintain lots of clouds along with the chance of a few light scattered showers. By no means a washout. The bigger story tomorrow will be the cold air behind the departing short wave. 925 mb temps fall to +3C to +5C across eastern MA, not as cold westward into CT and western MA. This combined with lots of clouds will limit highs to the mid to upper 50s across eastern MA, but with a gusty NE wind it will feel closer to 50! Dramatic temp change with two seasons in 24 hrs. Not as chilly westward with highs in the low 60s across the CT River Valley, but still cooler than normal. Given the building seas/rough surf we issued a high surf advisory for eastern MA. We realize not an ideal beach day tomorrow, but dangerous conditions for anyone observing the rough surf from jetties given large breaking waves onto rocks and other near shore structures. Saturday night... Mainly dry but chilly, with lows in the 40s, however feeling much cooler across southeast MA given gusty NNE winds. This onshore flow will continue to offer a risk for scattered showers over southeast MA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some improvement in the agreement among model guidance for late this weekend into early next week, but that is not to say the details are locked in. The main driver of our forecast will be our location relative to a mid level cutoff over the North Atlantic. Expecting this cutoff to eventually rotate offshore towards Tuesday, only to be replaced by another cutoff rotating into our region from southeast Canada. This second cutoff then becomes the dominant feature through the end of the next work week. Precipitation chances will be highest towards the east coast into Monday, then transition to a more widespread risk mid week. This is not to say every day will be a total washout through this portion of the forecast. The greatest daily risk for showers and possible thunderstorms will be more towards the late morning into the afternoon hours. Temperature-wise, looking at near to below normal high temperatures across southern New England. Trending warmer though the work week. Near normal low temperatures expected. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z... Widespread MVFR/IFR. Scattered showers redeveloping and moving south into northern and eastern MA toward daybreak. Increasing NE winds overnight with gusts to 25 kt developing along the coast and 15-20 kt elsewhere. Today...Moderate confidence. IFR cigs improving to MVFR in the afternoon. Scattered showers, mainly across eastern MA. NE gusts to 25 kt BOS-PVD corridor and up to 30 kt Cape/Islands. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Cigs improving to VFR in the CT valley, but MVFR persisting across the coastal plain. Scattered showers in eastern MA. NE wind gusts 25-30 kt near the coast gradually diminishing overnight. Sunday...Moderate confidence. Widespread MVFR cigs with increasing showers across eastern MA, possibly reaching central MA and RI. Mainly VFR CT valley. Increasing N winds with 25-30 kt gusts developing along the coast and up to 20 kt further inland. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR cigs this morning should improve to MVFR. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday night... Passage of backdoor front this evening, increasing NE winds will develop with gusts 25-30 kt later tonight through Sat. May even see a few marginal gale force gusts approaching 35 kt. Small craft advisories are in effect for all waters. Low risk of a few early evening thunderstorms near shore. Areas of fog around Nantucket have thinned at 4 pm but will return after sunset, before moving offshore with the wind shift to NE late tonight with the backdoor passage. Scattered showers Sat and Sat night, but the bigger story will be the NNE winds 20-30 kt and large/rough seas. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astro tides this weekend (11+ ft MLLW for Boston) combined with strong NE flow may yield minor coastal flooding for the eastern MA coastline. The tides of greatest concern are the Saturday night and Sunday night tides around midnight. There could be three night tides (Sat night/Sun night and possibly Mon night) with minor coastal flooding. && .CLIMATE... Below are record highs for June 2nd. June 2nd... BOS...96/1895 PVD...91/1918 BDL...91/1961 - new record today of 94 ORH...89/1892, 1895 and 1920. - tied the record today at 89. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Surf Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ230-231-250- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ236. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Nocera NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/KJC MARINE...Belk/Nocera TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion