Area Forecast Discussion

219 FXUS61 KBOX 260818 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 318 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves across the region this morning. Other than a few snow showers in the Berkshires this morning, dry and seasonable conditions are expected today through Monday with blustery to windy conditions at times. The wind peaks on Tuesday with potential for strong winds as a strong cold front moves through, which may also be accompanied by a few snow squalls in the morning. Colder temperatures return late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A fast moving clipper system could bring light snow Wednesday followed by a period of arctic air Thursday and Thursday night. Low pressure may impact the region next weekend with wintry precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level shortwave and cold front moves across New Eng this morning. Expecting a mainly dry fropa, but a few snow showers are possible in the northern Berkshires which could bring a coating to 1/2" of snow. Mostly cloudy skies to start the day will give way to increasing sunshine as excellent mid level drying moves into the region. Moderating airmass will bring milder temps with highs ranging from mid 30s to around 40 degrees. The milder air will be accompanied by gusty winds as soundings show a well mixed boundary layer supporting 25-35 mph westerly wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Tonight and Monday... Another weak shortwave moves through late tonight and early Mon before moving offshore, but moisture is non existent with PWATs down near 0.10". Other than a few high clouds, mainly clear skies are expected tonight with lots of sunshine Monday. Gusty winds diminish tonight but ramp up again on Monday as a strong pressure gradient is in place. SW winds expected to gust to 20-30 mph. Lows will drop into the teens tonight, but low 20s near the coast. There is not much change in low level temps Monday so expect highs in the mid- upper 30s, a bit cooler higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry Monday, a robust cold front early Tuesday brings strong wind gusts and the chance of squalls. * Light snow on Wednesday as a weak clipper system moves through southern New England. * High pressure builds in to our south, northwesterly gusts and below normal temperatures round out this week, along with potential of sub-zero wind chills. A strong cold front pushes into southern New England into the early morning hours on Tuesday, as mentioned by the previous forecaster it is possible this dynamic front may lead to snow squalls which has support from the CIPS snow squall parameter. Pressure falls on average of 12mb in 12 hours, steep low-level lapse rates greater than 8C/km, and modest PWATs of 0.3 to 0.4 inch. Snowfall will be minimal, a quick striking 1/2" to 1" of snow in 25 minutes is impactful. As this time frame is covered by the high-res guidance will be able to iron-out any remaining concerns. Time-wise, the front looks to move through early to mid Tuesday morning, possibly coinciding with the commute. Stronger winds accompany this front, as the 850mb jet strengthens, winds aloft are in the neighborhood of 60 knots. Southwest wind becomes northwest with the frontal passage with gusts 20-30 knots. Given this is a robust front, it`s possible there could be stronger gusts of 40+ knots. At this time confidence is not high enough in the areal coverage of those gusts to issue a `Wind Advisory`. Although it may be considered in subsequent forecasts. A weak clipper system moves out of the Great Lakes region into southern New England on Wednesday. There is still a level of uncertainty with respect to the track of the clipper/low pressure system. The main axis of moisture is focused on the northern side of the system. There remains uncertainty, GEM and ECMWF show the low passing though northern New England, leading to less QPF and warmer temperatures, while the GFS shows a passage further south, mainly over southern New England and leads to widespread QPF and colder temperatures. Have gone slightly in the middle of the deterministic runs, which would support minor accumulation for northern MA with less in the way of snow for RI, CT, and southeast MA. Still time for adjustments, so stay tuned! Relatively quiet weather Thursday and Friday, surface high pressure noses in from the south west. PWATs fall to less than 20 percent of normal for late January as colder Arctic air returns. Temperatures for both these days are below normal, in fact, sub-freezing highs are possible both days. In addition, will have the potential for gusty winds resulting in sub-zero wind chills Thursday night into early Friday. Given this is still a week out there is "pounds of time" for things to change. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Monday...High confidence. VFR through the period. Increasing W wind today with gusts to 25-30 kt developing, diminishing tonight. SW wind gusts to 25 kt developing again Monday afternoon. KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, chance RA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Today through Monday...High confidence. An extended period of gusty winds expected with strong pressure gradient in place and well mixed boundary layer over the waters. W winds will gust up to 30 kt today, then temporarily diminish a bit tonight with gusts dropping to around 20 kt overnight. Winds increase again Monday with SW gusts to 25-30 kt and approaching gale force toward evening. Gale watches have been issued starting Mon evening. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow, freezing spray, slight chance of rain. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for ANZ250-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dooley NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Dooley AVIATION...KJC/Dooley MARINE...KJC/Dooley NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion