Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221639
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and 
continues southwestward to 09N18W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 09N30W to 07N40W to 09N50W and to 07N58W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N
between 10W and 20W, and from 04N to 12N between 20W and 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic 
to across Florida into the Gulf region. Its related pressure 
gradient is generally allowing for mostly light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas 
are in general 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. A 
frontal boundary is near the coast of Texas generating scattered 
showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the northern 
Gulf late today, stall late Sun and Mon, then lift northward Tue. 
Patchy fog over the northwest Gulf ahead of the front will 
dissipate later today. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas 
coast Sun night through Mon night between low pressure over 
northeast Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. These winds
will diminish Tue ahead of another front moving across the southern
Plains. Looking ahead, this stronger front will move into the 
northwest Gulf Wed, followed by fresh NE winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the 
western Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to 
strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured
by a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these 
winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are noted
over the remainder of the basin. 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over 
the southwestern section of the sea, where the East Pacific 
monsoon trough extends across the region. Low-topped trade wind 
showers are seen elsewhere, with some thunderstorm activity
offshore NE Honduras. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will 
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through
the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south- 
central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters
near northwest Colombia. Elsewhere, high pressure centered over 
the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds 
and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next 
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N59W southwestward to 26N67W.
No significant convection is seen in association with this front.
Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are on 
either side of the front. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the 
remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1021 mb high pressure 
situated near the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer satellite data
passes depict moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds 
south of about 23N west of 71W, including through the passages of
the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba 
and through the Straits of Florida. 
 
Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N50W to a
1015 mb low pressure located near 27N53W to 19N55W. An upper-level
low dropping southward is near 26N53W. This feature is providing 
upper support for the low/trough. Scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms are E of the trough axis to about 44W. The 
pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1034 mb situated 
to the northeast of the Azores and lower pressures over NW Africa 
is producing an area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds N 
of 27N and east of 30W, including the N waters of the Canary 
Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell are over 
this area. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of
25N between 40 and 45W or between the the trough and the SW 
periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with 
these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with 
moderate seas are present over the rest of the tropical Atlantic.
 
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front southeast of Bermuda 
will shift eastward today, then stall and dissipate through Sun. 
High pressure over the northern Bahamas will dissipate through 
Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will move off the 
northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will reach from 
Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern 
portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W 
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to 
lift northward. High pressure will build north of the front off 
the Carolina coast, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
moderate seas across the region, with large NW swell following 
the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of an approaching front over 
the southeast U.S. 

$$ 
GR