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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;262791
AXNT20 KNHC 240602
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Showers and thunderstorms
are slowly getting better organized in association with a low
pressure area centered about 400 miles southeast of Bermuda near
29N62W, 1016 mb. Further development of the low is possible, and
this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or
storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and
north- northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system has
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours
and 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more
details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis along 36W south of 19N, moving
quickly westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 13N between 35W and 41W.
A tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 20N, moving
westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
N of 18N between 51W-55W.
A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean, with axis
along 68W, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers
are noted in the wave environment and N of 17N.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along
90W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. The wave appears to
support convective activity over the Yucatan peninsula.
Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west
coast of Africa on Monday, and an area of low pressure could form
in association with the wave early this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter portions of the week while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation
in 7 days.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N16W and continues westward to 07N50W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N50W to 07N53W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is noted along the monsoon trough E of 21W, and between 35W and
48W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak surface ridging, anchored by a 1016 mb high center located
near 27N93W, is generally allowing for anticyclonic light to
gentle winds across the basin. Slight seas are present throughout
the Gulf waters per buoy observations and altimeter data.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active
over the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the Mexican coast between
Veracruz and Tampico where a surface trough is analyzed. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are also present over the
NE Gulf, and over most of Florida.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge
building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through the week. A
surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of
the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please,
see the Tropical Wave section above for more details.
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-
central Caribbean. Seas up o 6 ft are with these trades. Moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the
northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, where light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to maintain
fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-
central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle
winds and slight seas in the NW basin. Winds will pulse at times
through the week following passages of a series of relatively weak
tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low
pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.
A trough is analyzed E of Florida and runs from 31N76W to 25N80W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted N of
25N W of 74W in association with this trough. A 1019 mb high
pressure situated near 29N68W dominates the remainder of the SW N
Atlantic, including the Bahamas and W of 60W. A stationary front
crosses between the Madeira and the Canary Islands. A few showers
are along the frontal boundary. Rough seas are found north of the
front. A ridge dominates much of the area between 30W and 60W,
with a 1028 high pressure located north of area near 35N47W.
Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 20N north of the
monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde Islands and 42W, and in a
belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are
slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across the
remainder of the waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low (AL95) will
continue developing as it moves northward and north-
northeastward well to the northeast of Bermuda. Increasing winds
and seas are possible tonight over the far NE waters, with
conditions then improving Mon. Elsewhere, high pressure will
maintain mainly gentle winds N of 23N through the period, with
moderate to fresh trades to the south, with slightly higher winds
pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most
westward across the far southern waters this week.
$$
ERA
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