Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 190547
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Dec 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: 
A broad 1013 mb low is located near 30N55W with a weakening cold
front extending southwestward to 24N60W. NE gales are occurring
within 75-100 NM in the NW and NE semicircles, while strong gales
are occurring within 40 NM in the NW semicircle of the low, per a
2351 UTC Metop-B ASCAT pass. Seas of 12 to 18 ft (3.5 to 5.5 m) 
are found north of 27N between 52W and 59W. Very rough seas are 
expected across the W semicircle of the low center through Fri 
morning, before the low begins to slowly weaken and gradually 
exits the forecast area Sat morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information
this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near
06N11W and extends to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues westward from 
05N15W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along
and within 150 nm of these features between the W coast of Africa
and 30W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the 
Caribbean waters near Panama and NW Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A new cold front is entering the basin from the TX and LA coasts.
A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the front, with moderate
to fresh NW winds following both of these features. Another
surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf, with moderate to
fresh S winds seen near and to the east of the trough. Scattered
showers are seen near the south end of the trough and through the
Florida Straits. The remainder of the Gulf is seeing gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, winds across the basin are veering to the S and
SW ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf tonight. The front 
will reach from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Fri morning, 
from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri evening, then begin to lift 
northward and dissipate through Sat. Then, a ridge will dominate 
the Gulf waters this upcoming weekend into early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the far NW Caribbean near the western tip of Cuba, likely
enhanced by a surface trough in the region. Refer to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ section for details on other convection in the basin.
Otherwise, a trade wind regime prevails across the Caribbean with
fresh to strong trades occurring offshore NW Colombia, along with
seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft 
prevail in the central and eastern basin. The remainder of the 
Caribbean is seeing moderate or weaker winds and slight seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean 
through most of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
winds are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds
over the NW Caribbean. Large E swell will persist over the 
tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into 
the eastern part of the basin through Fri. High pressure will 
strengthen north of the basin this upcoming weekend into early 
next week to bring fresh to strong winds across the central 
Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in 
the western and central Atlantic.

A broad 1013 mb low is located near 30N55W with a weakening cold
front extending southwestward to 24N60W. This front then
transitions to a shear line from 24N60W to 22N68W to 25N76W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 27N between 50W 
and 56W. Away from the areas of gales, fresh to strong SSE winds
are seen ahead of this system N of 26N and W of 52W to the front 
and low. Fresh to strong NE to E winds also follow these features,
covering much of the waters north of the shear line. In the far W
Atlantic and N of the Bahamas, a swath of fresh to near-gale force
winds is seen via scatterometer data ahead of a frontal boundary
moving eastward across the US. Scattered moderate convection
producing gale force winds is seen generally N of 20N and W of
76W.

In the east Atlantic, a broad upper trough is causing scattered
showers and thunderstorms across a large area from 13N to 25N and
E of 30W. Surface ridging prevails across much of the basin 
otherwise. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 7-10 ft cover much 
of the Atlantic S of 25N and E of 45W. Moderate to fresh trades 
and seas of 6-9 ft are observed S of 20N between 45W and the 
Lesser Antilles. The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure of 1014 mb is located 
near 30N55W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward 
through 24N59W. The low pressure is expected to become better 
organized and deepen tonight into early Fri as it moves slowly 
E-NE across the far NE zones. Ongoing strong gale-force winds 
within 90 nm NW semicircle of the low center and very rough seas 
associated with this system are expected to continue through early
Fri afternoon. The low will gradually weaken and exit the 
forecast area Sat morning. The next cold front will move into the 
NW waters Fri afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the NW 
Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front is forecast to move into 
the NW waters Sun night, and reach from 31N60W to central Florida 
by Mon evening, and from 29N55W to SE Florida Tue morning while 
dissipating. 

$$
Adams