Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;604244
AXNT20 KNHC 270947
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and 
continues southwestward to near 03N20W and to 00S39W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between
16W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
within 60 nm of the trough between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N to 09N between 14W-16W, within 60 nm south 
of the trough between 28W-34W and within 60 nm north of the trough
between 31W-35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1015 mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 27N86W 
maintains a weak pressure pattern over the eastern and central 
Gulf. A trough extends from Tampico, Mexico southeastward along 
the coast to Veracruz. The gradient in place is allowing for 
moderate to fresh east winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula and 
west of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds east of 90W. 
Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the basin.

Patches of low stratus-type clouds and fog producing visibility of 
3 to 5 nm are seen over the far western Gulf and lifting to the 
northwest with the moderate to fresh southeasterly flow over that
is occurring over that part of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the interaction between weak high pressure over
the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends from along the coast 
of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh 
southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the 
Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas 
over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere,
a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the 
Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking 
ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into 
Thu and reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of 
Venezuela in combination with a broad upper-level trough is 
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the 
eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure across the basin is 
keeping moderate to fresh trades offshore NW Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds 
elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide per latest altimeter 
satellite data passes and recent buoy observations.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute 
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and 
eastern Caribbean Sea today resulting in mostly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through the week. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh 
speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu 
as high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a 
cold front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N37W to 27N42W, where it becomes 
a trough to 22N50W and a dissipating warm front to 24N60W and 
to 24N65W. A trough extends from 24N65W to eastern Cuba. A trough
is analyzed from near 31N40W to 27N50W and northwestward to
29N60W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long-period northwest swell follow 
the trough. Patches of rain along with isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 28N between 49W and 62W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 24N to 29N between 
64W and 68W. A cold front moved off the southeastern United States
coast during the overnight hours, and is along a position from 
near 31N73W to inland to the extreme northeast part of northern 
Florida. A trough is to its south from 30N78W to just east of the 
upper Florida Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen 
from 27N to 30N between 74W and 77W and north of 30N between 70W 
and 74W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the front 
along with seas of up to around 7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure is
the main feature over the eastern part of the basin as a 1020 mb 
high center is analyzed near 30N26W. The related gradient is 
keeping moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south 
of about 20N and east of 60W, as well as north of 20N and east 
of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker 
winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly 
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 26N between 39W and
56W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening remnant frontal trough 
lingering north of the Greater Antilles will dissipate this 
morning. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N 
east of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead 
of a cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front extending from 31N76W to northeast Florida will reach from 
near Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before 
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold 
front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or 
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W 
and stationary to South Florida late Fri. 

$$
Aguirre