Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 050538
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between 
a well established high pressure ridge over the northwestern 
Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support 
strong to gale-force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas 
across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through
Friday night. Winds offshore of Colombia are expected to pulse, 
increasing to gale force overnight then diminishing to 25 to 30 kt
during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Winds may 
remain just below gale force Thursday night but gales are expected
to resume offshore NW Colombia on Friday night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N12W and extends to
04.5N16W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 00N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 00N to 06N between 14W and 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward
into the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail
across much of the Gulf, except for the NE Gulf where winds are
gentle or weaker and seas are 1-3 ft, and the FL Straits where 
seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge
southwestward into the SE U.S. into the weekend. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf, pulsing to fresh to
strong each night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

The pressure difference between high pressure well north of the
area and the Colombia low maintains fresh to strong trades across
much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere. Rough seas are analyzed in the central
Caribbean, with moderate seas in the eastern Caribbean and seas of
3-6 ft prevailing in the NW basin. 

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will prevail N of the 
area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades 
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds 
offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight
hours through Fri night while fresh to strong NE winds in the 
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will pulse through Sat 
evening. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will pulse
at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough 
seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic 
will continue through early Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1039 mb high near 40N34W extends a ridge across much of the
Atlantic, also supported by a 1028 mb high near 34N61W. As a
result, fresh to strong trades and rough seas cover much of the
Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and 60W between the
Equator and 29N. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevail W of 60W and S of 27N. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will prevail S of 24N 
and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas N 
of 27N and E of 65W will subside tonight. Moderate to fresh winds 
will prevail S of 25N through the period, reaching strong speeds N
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage. Gentle to moderate winds
can be expected N of 25N. 

$$
Adams