Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;046654
AXNT20 KNHC 220431
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Feb 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0415 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front has entered 
the NW Gulf, extending from 30N92W to 26N97W. The front will 
continue moving quickly across the basin through Sun night, 
producing strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to very 
rough seas behind it. Gale-force winds are expected offshore of 
Tampico Sun morning, and offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon and 
night. Seas offshore Tampico are expected to build to 12 to 14 ft,
while seas offshore Veracruz are forecast to build to 14 to 16 
ft. A Gale Warning is also in effect for the coastal waters from 
the western Florida Panhandle all the way to south Texas. Gusty 
winds of 35 to 40 kt are expected in these waters in the wake of 
the front. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE 
Mon through Tue as high pressure builds across the Gulf region 
behind the cold front.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: The same strong cold front described 
above currently moving through the Gulf of America will push 
offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun. Strong to gale force NW 
winds and rapidly building seas will prevail behind the front 
from Sun evening through early Mon. Seas during this time will 
build to 12-15 ft. The front is expected to reach from near 
Bermuda to eastern Cuba Mon, and from 31N60W to the Dominican 
Republic Tue, while weakening. The front will stall from 29N55W to
the Mona Passage Wed. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
W Gulf Gale Warning.

A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf, extending from 
30N92W to 26N97W. High pressure centered over the western 
Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf region. 
Under this weather pattern, a gentle to moderate SE return flow 
across is noted ahead of the front. Seas are in general 3 to 6 ft,
except 1 to 3 ft offshore Florida to about 85W. The SE return 
flow is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico 
northward, producing hazy skies W of 90W. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of
America will bring strong to gale-force winds and very rough 
seas. Please, see the Special features section for more 
information.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and 
lower pressure over Colombia is currently supporting strong to 
near-gale force tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean. These
winds were well-sampled by the most recent satellite derived 
wind data. The persistence of these wind speeds and fresh to 
strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean has resulted 
in 8 to 11 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 4 to 7 ft with 
moderate to fresh trades, except in the Gulf of Honduras where 
fresh to strong SE winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these 
winds.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support 
fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean 
through Sun, before diminishing. Winds will pulse to near-gale 
force tonight offshore of Colombia. Farther east, rough seas will 
linger E of the Lesser Antilles through morning as N swell 
progresses across the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold 
front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Sun night, reach from 
NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua- Costa Rica border by late Mon 
night, then stall and weaken from central Dominican Republic to NE
Costa Rica Wed morning. Expect strong N winds and rapidly 
building seas behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
the W Atlantic Gale warning.

A surface ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with 1020
mb high pressure centered near 26N72W and a 1021 mb high pressure
located near 24N53W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 
moderate seas are noted around the southern periphery of the ridge
W of 45W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the tropical 
Atlantic, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Decaying NW swell is 
producing seas to 9 ft north of 20N and east of 35W. The pressure
gradient tightens between the ridge and frontal boundaries 
located just N of 31N resulting in fresh westerly winds and seas 
to 9 ft N of 26N between 30W-60W. Farther E, fresh NE winds are 
seen between the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient 
between a 1032 mb high pressure situated W of Portugal and a 
trough over NW Africa. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge will shift
slowly eastward through the weekend, allowing a strong cold front
will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sun, with strong to 
gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front 
through early Mon. The front is expected to reach from near 
Bermuda to eastern Cuba Mon, and from 31N60W to the Dominican 
Republic Tue, while weakening. The front will stall from 29N55W to
the Mona Passage Wed. 

$$
ERA