Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;517556
AXNT20 KNHC 061629
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jul 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 39W, S of 18N. This is an 
adjustment from previous analyses and combined two analyzed wave 
to better reflect current and forecast conditions. The combined 
wave is moving W at 10 kt, and is inducing scattered moderate 
convection from 05N to 10N between 33W and 43W. 

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W, S of 17N, moving W at
around 20N. Scattered moderate convection associated with this
wave is noted S of 12N between 51W and 59W. 

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 81W, south of 18N, moving 
W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted S of 15N and W of 80W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N17W and continues
to 11N19. The ITCZ stretches from 09N22W to 07N33W and from 07N41W
to 07N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
waves, described above, scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm of the segment of the ITCZ that extends from 22W to
33W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Subtropical ridging continues to be the dominant feature over the
basin, with the axis extending into the central Gulf from the 
east. A surface trough that extends from near Tampa Bay to Mobile 
Bay is generating scattered moderate convection across the 
northern Gulf. Winds are moderate or weaker, mainly anticyclonic, 
through the basin, with generally slight seas, with the except of 
some 3 to 5 ft seas in the Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the basin 
through the forecast period, thus supporting gentle to moderate 
winds over the western half of the Gulf, except for fresh to 
strong ENE winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Moderate
or weaker winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Gulf 
while slight seas are forecast basin-wide. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower
pressure over northern South America continue to support fresh to
strong trades over the central basin, with moderate to fresh E
winds elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are present in the central
basin, with slight seas in the NW basin, and 5 to 7 ft seas
elsewhere. Convection in the far SW basin is associated with a
tropical wave and is described in the above section. Scattered
moderate convection is noted between the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba, being induced by upper-level divergence. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge
north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
over the central Caribbean through the week. The aerial extent of
these winds will continue to increase today as the Atlantic ridge
continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds 
are expected to extend across most of the east, central and SW 
Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri. Moderate or
weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except 
in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are 
forecast at night through the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 
20N, and is anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 
29N39W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 
3-5 ft seas for waters N of 22N, with mainly fresh trades and 5 to
7 ft seas to the south. Upper level divergence to the east of a
trough aloft is leading to scattered moderate convection N of 23N
and W of 65W, including in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will
stay in place through the forecast period, developing a center of
high pressure E of the Bahamas by Fri. This pattern will continue
to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 23N, and 
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Strong winds, with moderate to
rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including 
approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night

$$
Konarik