Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;191542
AXNT20 KNHC 042315
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1030 
mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower
pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- 
force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones.
Scatterometer data from 1014 UTC today showed strong to near gale
force winds occurring off the coast of Morocco. Gale-force winds 
are expected to occur through 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These
winds will produce rough seas 10 ft and higher. Similar 
conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer 
to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 18W south of 
14N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
active from 06N to 10N between 15W and 21W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 12N, moving 
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is seen from 01N to 07.5N between 37W and 46W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W-53W, south of 14N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 13N between 48W and 57W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the
Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing shower and thunderstorm 
activity across NE South America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 06N27W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 04N39W where it is broken by a 
tropical wave, then resumes from 02N43W to the coast of Brazil
near 01.5N50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front and frontal remnant trough extend 
through the Florida Straits to offshore of SW Louisiana near
27N93W. A tight pressure gradient north of the front is forcing 
fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft
to the N of 27N across much of the NE and north-central Gulf. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are 
present across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. 
Divergence aloft and plenty of low-level tropical moisture are
resulting in numerous moderate and isolated strong convection 
over the Gulf waters from 23N to 27N and E of 91W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds and moderate to 
rough seas persist north of a weakening stationary front over the 
SE waters. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening over
the south- central and southeast Gulf. Winds and seas will 
diminish starting Fri as a ridge builds from the western Atlantic 
into the eastern Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas into early next
week, except for occasionally fresh to strong pulses off 
northwest Yucatan during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure system centered 
SW of the Azores southwestward to near 25N70W. This pattern is 
supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central 
and eastern Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, 
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, 
along the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough and
extends inland across Nicaragua.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate
seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic
ridge NE of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exceptions 
will be fresh to strong pulses off Venezuela tonight, and in the 
Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds 
and building are possible over the northwest and north-central 
Caribbean late Sat through early next week as the Atlantic ridge 
rebuilds north of area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the far northeast Atlantic.

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic through 31N66W to 
the central Bahamas then become stationary westward through the 
Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
present along and just ahead of the front, and are most numerous over
the central and northern Bahamas to 80W. Moderate to fresh N-NE 
winds and rough seas in NE swell to 8 ft along 31N are found 
behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate 
seas are evident N of 27N and W of 60W to the front. Across the 
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated 
by ridging centered around a 1030 mb high located SW of the 
Azores, leading to moderate to fresh easterly trade winds S of 
22N and moderate to locally rough seas. Saharan air dominates the
deep tropics S of 24N and E of 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary reaches from 
31N66W to the central Bahamas then through the Florida Straits. 
The front will dissipate Fri into Sat, as high pressure builds
from the SE U.S. into the western Atlantic. This pattern will 
allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next 
week. 

$$
Stripling