Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 201708
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.5N 85.6W at 20/1500
UTC or 100 nm S of Panama City Florida, moving NW at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 9 ft in the
NE quadrant, where strong winds are present. Numerous strong
convection is noted N of 24N and E of 92W. On the forecast track,
the system will approach SE Louisiana in two to three days.
Gradual strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm by tonight. The combination of storm 
surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the 
immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from 
the shoreline. Swells generated by the depression are affecting 
portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread 
westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Eastern Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde 
Islands along 21W, from 04N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N E of 24W. 

A well-defined Central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south
of 19N, moving W at around 10 kt. Abundant dry Saharan air
encompasses this wave, precluding any convection. 

A Caribbean tropical wave extends southward from Haiti along 72W,
moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Depression Two in the NE Gulf.

Away from the influence of Tropical Depression Two, 1016 mb high 
pressure centered near 25N92W dominates, leading to gentle winds
and slight seas. 

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two will strengthen to a 
tropical storm near 28.6N 86.0W this evening, move to 28.9N 86.5W 
Tue morning, 29.2N 87.2W Tue evening, 29.4N 88.2W Wed morning, 
29.5N 89.5W Wed evening, and inland to 29.5N 90.8W Thu morning. 
Two will weaken to a tropical depression near 29.4N 93.3W early 
Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure over South America is resulting in 
fresh easterly trade winds over most of the central and southwest
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with locally strong 
winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 7 to
9 ft are noted in these waters. Moderate winds and seas are found
in the eastern Caribbean. in the NW basin, light to gentle winds 
and slight seas are prevalent. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of 12N in the SW basin, in association with a 1009 mb low
pressure centered near 10N78W.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian 
low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas
across the south-central Caribbean through Thu. During the same 
period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the 
Windward Passage, mainly at night. Pulsing winds to fresh speeds 
are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. 
Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An broad upper-level low has two surface trough reflections, along
45W N of 25N, and from 18N55W to 22N51W, respectively. These
features are inducing scattered moderate convection from 20N to
29N between 45W and 60W. NW of these trough axes, moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are being generated in the tighter pressure
gradient between the features and the 1021 mb subtropical ridge
centered near 30N60W. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate
waters between 15N and 30N, E of 45W, otherwise winds in the basin
are moderate or weaker. Moderate seas dominate the entire basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, surface trough located over the 
central Atlantic near 52W will move westward reaching near 60W by 
Tue morning, and near 65W by Wed morning. Moderate to fresh winds 
are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally 
strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including 
approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. 
Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas E of the Bahamas are 
forecast elsewhere through Fri.

$$
Konarik