Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;015790
AXNT20 KNHC 192252
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 27W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed from 07N to 12N and between 21W and 30W.

A tropical wave is near 58W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 
to 15 kt. Convection is isolated along the ITCZ near the wave at 
this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean along 73W,
south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection extends northeastward across Hispaniola,
the Mona Passage and into the Atlantic N of Puerto Rico, as the 
wave interacts with an upper level trough across this area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N26W and 
to 10.5N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N51W to NE Venezuela near 
10N62W. Beyond convection described above with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N
to 13.5N between 30W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by 1019 mb high 
pressure located near 27N89.5W. This pattern supports a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic wind flow across the basin with slight to 
moderate seas of generally 3 ft or less. An upper level low center
across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms across large portions of the
interior that are shifting eastward toward the Atlantic coast.
Another large cluster of moderate to strong convection is across
much of the Florida Panhandle and extends across the nearshore
coastal waters between Apalachicola and Mobile Bay. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the central 
Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast period. This 
weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to locally moderate seas. A diurnally induced surface 
trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west 
of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will 
shift westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough 
migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong 
winds across the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh 
winds across the remainder of the central part of the basin. Seas 
are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and 
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection extends northeastward across Hispaniola,
the Mona Passage and into the Atlantic N of Puerto Rico. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring across the SW
Caribbean and into coastal portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and western Panama. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade 
wind flow ahead of an approaching tropical wave, is producing 
scattered showers across the Lesser Antilles and SE Caribbean S 
of 16N.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a subtropical 
ridge north of the basin and relatively lower pressure in 
northern South America will generally support fresh to strong 
trades along with rough seas across the south-central Caribbean 
through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and eastern 
Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week, and 
increase in coverage over the tropical Atlantic and eastern 
Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical wave moves across those
waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 1018 mb low pressure near 33N48.5W
to 30N50W to a 1016 mb low pressure center located near 29N61W,
then continues as a dissipating frontal trough to just east of 
the SE Bahamas near 24N73W. Middle level troughing overhead of the
stationary front is supporting clusters of scattered moderate
isolated strong showers and thunderstorms within 180 nm S of the
front and low between 46W and 62W. Satellite scatterometer data 
shows moderate to fresh S to SW winds within about 150 nm south of
the front between 46W and 64W. Seas area 4 to 5 ft within these
winds. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the Azores 
High centered near 38N30W, that extends southwestward across 30N
and then a narrow ridge south of the front to near 70W. Under the
influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate trade winds 
are occurring S of 24N E of 40W, and S of 22N W of 40W. However, 
small areas of fresh winds are noted approaching the Lesser
Antilles, while moderate to fresh NE winds prevail from 18N to 
25N E of 30W. Seas across these areas are 6 to 7 ft. Otherwise, 
seas are generally moderate E of 70W, and slight to moderate W of
70W. Saharan Air continues to dominate the Tropical Atlantic N of
13N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will begin to 
weaken tonight through Thu, and drift northward as high pressure
builds modestly westward into the Bahamas through Fri. Elsewhere,
a weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle 
winds over most of the waters north of 23N going into the upcoming
weekend and into early next week. Moderate to locally fresh 
trades are expected south of about 22N, especially off the coast
of Hispaniola throughout the period. 

$$
Stripling