Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 170409
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0405 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic
along 17W, south of 20N, based on satellite data and tropical 
wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 18N and east
of 22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 37W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near
this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 10N to 14N between 51W and 61W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 11N40W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N40W to 11N54W and then from 11N56W to 10N62W. No significant
convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the 
Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to
fresh NE-E winds and seas of 2-4 ft south of 25N and east of 95W.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few
showers are seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche and western Gulf
waters, while dry conditions are prevalent elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters
through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally
induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally
strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening.
These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night
as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas
are expected through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Favorable upper level conditions and tropical moisture combine to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW 
Caribbean and off central Cuba. Meanwhile, a tight pressure
gradient supports fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in
the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. This was confirmed by
a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are
7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
noted in the eastern Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the 
area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean though Mon. Fresh to strong winds over the 
central basin will resume Wed night through Fri night as high 
pressure redevelops E of the Bahamas. A tropical wave in the 
central Caribbean will move across the western Caribbean through 
Tue before moving W of the region. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure system near
33N56W to 29N63W and to 31N71W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present north of 25N and between 51W and 72W.
Moderate to locally strong SW-W winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found
north of 26N and between 50W and 65W. The remainder of the SW
North Atlantic is dominated by a ridge that supports moderate to
locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 24N
and west of 60W. 

The central and eastern tropical Atlantic is under the influence
of a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near the Azores.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
noted north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Similar winds and seas
are present south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 31W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a
ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central 
Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds 
south of 22N through tonight. A cold front extending from 31N56W 
to 30N70W will continue to move across the northern forecast 
waters on Mon then stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to
strong SW to W winds are ahead of the front along with scattered 
showers and tstms. 

$$
Delgado