Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 051806
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: 
The tight pressure gradient between a well established high
pressure ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure
over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale-force NE to
E winds, and rough to very rough seas across much of the central 
and southeastern Caribbean sea. After diminishing to 25 to 30 kt 
during late morning to early afternoon hours. Winds may remain 
just below gale force Thursday night but gales are expected to 
resume offshore NW Colombia on Friday night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and tried 06N
http://www.nhc.noaa.gove/text/marine/offshores.php. for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Sirrea Leone
coastal border, then extends southwestward to 06N17W. An ITCZ 
continues southwestward from 06N17W across 00N60W to just north 
Sau Luis, Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 00N to 04N between 18W and 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are causing widely scattered moderate
convection just south of New Orleans and at the east-central
Gulf. Otherwise, a broad surface extends southwestward from
central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico is dominating much of the
Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found for
the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist through early next week.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure over 
Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds Gulf- 
wide. Seas will be slight to moderate through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered moderate
convection at the northwestern basin, including waters near the
Cayman Islands. Fresh to strong ENE to E trades with 7 to 10 ft
seas dominate the central basin and parts of the southwestern
basin, while moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are 
seen at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will prevail north of 
the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force 
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds
offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight
hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in 
the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba through early Sat evening.
In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will pulse at 
night through Sun night. Rough seas in easterly trade wind swell 
over the tropical north Atlantic will continue through Tue. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Convergent trades are coupling with divergent flow aloft to
produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from the
coast of Brazil to 02N between 44W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

A 1038 mb Azores High along with a 1028 mb Bermuda High are
dominating much of the Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen north of 28N between 35W and
the Georgia/northeast Florida coast. For the remainder of the
Atlantic from 00N to 28N and west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to
E winds with 7 to 10 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 25N through Mon night, becoming strong 
north of Hispaniola into the Windward Passage. Rough seas will 
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southern 
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected 
elsewhere across the region. 

$$

Chan