Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 100610
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W, S of 14N, moving west at
around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W, S of 15N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 18N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. There is no significant convection
associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W 
and extends SW to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 
05N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 04N to 11N between 09W and 19W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 31W and 57W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge associated with a 1021 mb high over northern 
Georgia extends southwestward across the north-central and eastern  
Gulf. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure 
around TS Cristina and the eastern Pacific monsoon circulation is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds over the SE Gulf
as well as the western half of the Gulf. Seas are 3-7 ft across
these waters, with the highest seas of 5 to 7 ft being across the
Yucatan adjacent waters and the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere in the
NE Gulf, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight. Otherwise, 
scattered to isolated showers are ongoing across the waters from 
the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Panhandle and south of the
Florida Big Bend.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
Gulf region the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate east 
to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh 
winds in the western Gulf through much of this week. Slight to 
moderate seas will also prevail. The exception will be off the 
Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will support fresh E winds
pulsing to strong speeds during the evenings through Wed. A 
trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan 
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu through Fri night, 
accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh
to strong winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. 
Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of Nicaragua supports 
moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas in the north-central 
and NW Caribbean W of 75W. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere.  

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will strengthen slightly 
the next few days as high pressure moves into the W Atlantic, 
leading to widespread moderate to fresh trades with fresh to 
strong E winds in the south-central and NW Caribbean, including 
the Gulf of Honduras. These conditions will prevail through the 
forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly 
moderate seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 29N70W to 31N78W. 
Thunderstorms persist east of the southern Bahamas near the 
southern end of a surface pre-frontal trough extending from 
30N55W to 22N65W. With these features, there is a weak pressure
gradient over the SW N Atlantic waters, which is resulting in
mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas, except for moderate
winds and moderate seas to 5 ft in the vicinity of the front.  
The Azores High dominates the remainder of the discussion waters 
N of 17N. A strong pressure gradient between the High and lower
pressure over NW Africa continue to support fresh to strong NE
winds and moderate to rough seas N of 20N and E of 35W. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere in the
subtropical Atlantic. In the tropical Atlantic, the passage of two
tropical waves is supporting moderate to fresh trades between 40W
and the Lesser Antilles along with 7 to 8 ft seas.  

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure may form along 
the surface trough Wed near 25N65W, which will then dissipate 
through Thu as it moves to the northeast along with the trough. 
Meanwhile, the cold front will stall along 30N east of 75W 
through late Wed, then will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak 
low pressure. The Atlantic ridge will build across the region late
Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern 
will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola 
at night from Fri night through Sun night.

$$
Ramos