Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151034
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 20W-21W, south 
of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 03.5N to 12.5N between 14W and
28W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N, moving 
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 
03N to 07N and between 31W and 39W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 16N, moving 
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is present from 05.5N to 08.5N from 50W to 58.5W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 18N, moving 
westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers dot the waters behind 
the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06.5N30W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06.5N30W to 05.5N36W and then resumes from 
05.5N38W to 05.5N52W. Beyond convection described above in the  
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the eastern Gulf 
waters near 26N86.5W and extends a broad ridge westward to near
92W. Meanwhile, elongated low pressure persists across
northeastern Mexico and extends into S Texas. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds 
and moderate seas to 5 ft across the western Gulf and off the NW 
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is across the central Texas coastal
waters, and shifting southeastward into the coastal waters from SE
Louisiana to south of Mobile Bay.

For the forecast, the trough of low pressure located over 
northeastern Mexico and into S Texas will remain inland and drift 
northward through midweek. New low pressure may develop late Tue 
across S Texas and move NE across coastal Texas through Wed. This 
system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf Wed, where 
environmental conditions may support some development. Expect 
active showers and thunderstorms across the NW Gulf during this 
time. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge into the 
eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the low pressure and 
the ridge will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the 
western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and moderate to fresh 
winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

1023 mb high pressure is centered across the Atlantic near 26N62W
and extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into
the eastern Gulf of America. A tropical wave is moving quickly
into the central Caribbean along 70W, with scattered showers
behind the wave south of 14N, between 67W and 70W. The pressure
gradient south of the Atlantic ridge is producing a large area of
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central basin
between 65W and 80W, highest off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 7
to 10 ft across these waters. Fresh winds prevail across the
remainder of the eastern basin, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate
E to SE winds prevail across the rest of the basin W of 80W,
becoming gentle between Jamaica and the Yucatan Channel, with
moderate seas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
along the monsoon trough between 80W and the E coast of Nicaragua.
Fair skies prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will reorganize E of 60W 
today through Wed, then drift N to along 28N Thu through Fri. A 
large area of fresh to strong trade winds across the central 
Caribbean this morning will gradually retreat to the south-central
basin tonight through Tue, then persist through the end of the 
week. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. 
Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf 
of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere across the NW Caribbean will become SE at fresh to 
strong speeds Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
extending from 1024 mb high pressure S of the Azores to 1023 mb
high pressure near 26N62W then westward through the central 
Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. A low level trough 
extends along 80W across the coastal waters of central and NE 
Florida. Fresh S to SW winds to the east of the feature are 
forcing a cluster of scattered moderate convection N of 29N 
between the trough and 77W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area. 
Another surface trough is along about 46W to the N of 27N. Low 
level convergence ahead of this trough is producing scattered 
moderate convection from 28N to 32N between the trough and 40W. 
The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh to 
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 
22N and between 50W and 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
seas of 5-8 ft are found elsewhere south of 20N and west of 35W. 
In the far east, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6-8 
ft are found north of 16N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent within the ridge. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will reorganize E of 60W 
today through Wed, then drift N to along 28N Thu through Fri. This
pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade 
winds S of 22N throughout the week. Fresh SW winds are expected 
across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W this morning, then will
expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system
moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each 
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto 
Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Stripling