Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;414967
AXNT20 KNHC 290441
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Dec 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the 
NW Gulf waters early Mon. The front will move quickly 
southeastward, departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale- 
force winds will follow the front, along with rough seas. Gale- 
force N winds and rough to very rough seas will develop off 
Tampico Mon. These winds and seas will reach the waters off 
Veracruz Mon night and persist until Tue night. Seas may peak 
around 20 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. Conditions will 
improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A couple of cold 
fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold
front extends from 31N47W to 27N76W. The second cold front enters
the waters near 31N51W to 27N63W to 31N75W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that strong to locally gale-force cyclonic
winds are occurring north of 25N and between 40W and 60W. Fresh 
to strong W to NW winds and very rough seas will continue over the
central tropical Atlantic, north of 22N and east of 65W, through 
Mon morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will impact the waters 
north of 29N and east of 60W through late tonight. Large N swell 
from both fronts is leading to very rough seas greater over the 
forecast waters N of 23N between 37W and 68W. Widespread rough 
seas associated with this storm system will prevail east of 75W 
through tonight before briefly subsiding from west to east early 
this week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues 
from 04N20W to 02N33W and to 00N48W. A few showers are noted near
the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming 
Gale Warning.

A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters ahead of an
approaching cold front, currently over the southern United 
States. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 24N. 
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf
late tonight. The front will rapidly shift across the Gulf 
waters, moving SE of the area Tue. Gale force winds and rough seas
are expected in the wake of the front off the coast of Texas and 
Louisiana by early Mon morning, and offshore of Tampico and 
Veracruz by Mon afternoon and night. Prolonged gale force winds 
and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay 
of Campeche through late Tue night. Widespread strong to near-gale
force winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere behind the 
front. Winds and seas will diminish from north to south through 
midweek. High pressure will build over the basin following the 
front with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through late
this week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient persist across the central Caribbean
Sea between the subtropical ridge centered north of the islands
and lower pressures associated with the Colombian low. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force 
easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 8-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are noted in the north- central Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. 
Low-level convergence is producing a few showers in the NW 
Caribbean and off NE Nicaragua. In the meantime, a surface trough 
near the Windward Islands is generating scattered showers in the 
SE Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds and rough
seas are expected over the central Caribbean through the middle
of the week as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the 
Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach 
near-gale force offshore of northern Colombia tonight and again 
Mon night. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate
seas are expected over the rest of the basin through midweek. 
Elsewhere, a long period N to NW swell will bring rough seas over 
the Atlantic waters this week. A cold front will move into the 
northwestern basin late Tue into Wed, and weaken as it moves 
southeastward and dissipates on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on gale force 
winds and the ongoing significant swell in the central Atlantic.

In the north-central tropical Atlantic, the aforementioned cold 
fronts are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially east of the fronts to 40W and north of 25N. Rough seas
are evident High pressure dominates the SW North Atlantic, 
supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-9 ft west of 
65W. A surface trough is analyzed just east of the Lesser 
Antilles, producing a few showers and thunderstorms near and east 
of the archipelago. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, a weak 
subtropical ridge maintains moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
to locally rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds and
very rough seas will continue over the central tropical Atlantic,
north of 22N and east of 65W, through Mon morning as a strong 
storm system and a series of cold fronts move over the region. 
Near- gale to gale force winds will impact the waters north of 29N
and east of 60W through late tonight. Widespread rough seas 
associated with this storm system will prevail east of 75W through
tonight before briefly subsiding from west to east early this 
week. Farther west, fresh to locally strong W to SW winds will 
develop offshore of Florida on Mon ahead of a cold front moving 
through the southern U.S. The front will move offshore by late 
Mon, supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas in 
the wake of the front. These winds and seas will expand eastward 
toward the central Atlantic through midweek as the front moves 
eastward. Another cold front is expected to enter the northwest 
tropical Atlantic late this week, supporting increasing winds and 
building seas near and behind the front. 

$$
Delgado