Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 291515
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jul 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1505 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is present from 04N to 13N and between 18W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed from 04N to 15N and between 38W and
56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is evident from 10N to 19N and between 81W and 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the border of 
Mauritania and Senegal at 16N16W and continues to 09N22W and then
to 12N36W. The ITCZ extends from 12N36W to 09N44W and then from
09N46W to 06N58W. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for
information on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are noted over the eastern Gulf waters associated
with low-level convergence and an upper-level trough north of the
area. The remainder of the basin is under fairly tranquil weather
conditions in the westernmost portion of the subtropical ridge.
The weak pressure gradient results in moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas over much of the Gulf waters. However, stronger winds
and higher seas are likely occurring near the stronger convection.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula
nightly into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale-force 
easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 10 ft 
occurring off NW Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured winds up to 29 kt. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes 
and moderate seas are found in the north- central and eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate easterly winds and slight to 
locally moderate seas prevail. Aside from the convection described
in the Tropical Waves section above, no other significant 
convection is occurring in the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, the coverage area and strength of the trades will
increase into Thu as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian Low increases. By that time, expect fresh 
to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the 
eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and 
highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas.
Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of
our waters supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 120 nm of the trough axis. The remainder of the basin in
under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a
1025 mb high pressure system near 29N49W. 

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and frontal
trough support fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft north
of 28N and west of 64W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be
occurring near the stronger convection. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough to 24N and west of 35W. In the far eastern 
Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident 
north of 18N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds
and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a
ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This,
in combination with a frontal boundary over the W Atlantic, will 
support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several 
days. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola 
from tonight through Sat. 

$$
Delgado