Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141055
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic 
along 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in 
the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas
to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the 
southwest Caribbean tonight and Sat night. Please see the latest 
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles or near 50W have
continued to become less organized. This system is moving into a
region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the
possibility of development is decreasing. Regardless of
development, interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
monitor the progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of
heavy rain are possible across these islands Friday night and
Saturday. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development 
in the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 06N to 20N, moving 
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 13N between 33W and 41W. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or this weekend while the 
wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical 
development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium 
chance for development in the next 7 days.

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
wave with axis near 50W. 

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W, moving 
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Most of the convection associated
with the wave has dissipated.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends 
southwestward to 11N30W to 11N50W to 09N56W. Aside from 
convection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES 
section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 07N to 16N between 13W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1019 mb high near 27N85W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough
are ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6
ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging will change little through Sat 
before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of 
fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and 
into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface 
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW 
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast 
period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning 
in effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and 
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds 
over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are
ongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail over the remaining 
waters.

For the forecast, a tropical wave along 74W combined with the 
Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the 
central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force 
just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and 
Sat night. A second tropical wave along 50W, Invest AL92, should 
start impacting the Leeward Islands this evening. Strong to near 
gale-force winds along with areas of heavy rain are expected 
tonight and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward 
toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including 
the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the 
tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. Note
that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds and 
waves expected may be higher than indicated here. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the
entire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E
to SE winds S of 25N W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of 25N,
winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate.
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary 
Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with 
two tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause 
fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. 
Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the 
next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push 
across our northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift 
to northeast but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon 
north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday before 
dissipating by midweek. 

$$
Ramos