Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 181736
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
A cold front extending from northern Florida through the central 
Bay of Campeche will progress southeastward today and exit the 
basin this evening. Gale force NW winds and very rough seas will 
immediately follow the front over the central and eastern Gulf 
this afternoon, with gale force winds continuing offshore of 
Veracruz into this evening. Winds will diminish below gale force 
by tonight, with rough seas subsiding from north to south tonight 
through Mon morning. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore 
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through
northern Central America:
Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through 
midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal
trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching 
the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected 
to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into 
northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be 
possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological 
services for additional information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14.5W and extends 
to 01.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01.5N20W to 01.5S42W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N east of 
23W, and within 250 NM of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the 
Gale Warning, valid into this evening. 

A cold front extends from northern Florida near 29N83W 
southwestward through the central Bay of Campeche near 19N95.5W. 
Gale force N to NW winds are noted via scatterometer satellite 
data along and up to 75 NM behind the front from the northeastern 
through southwestern Gulf, including strong gales offshore of 
Veracruz. North of the gale force winds, widespread fresh to 
strong N winds prevail. Very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are 
occurring in tandem with the gales, as observed via recent 
altimeter satellite data and buoy data, with widespread rough seas
of 8 to 11 ft noted elsewhere behind the front. South and east of
the front, moderate to fresh NW winds and slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE and 
out of the basin tonight. Strong to gale-force NW to N winds and 
rough to very rough seas follow the front. Gale conditions are 
expected to end early this evening. High pressure will build 
southward into the region by Mon with improving marine conditions 
from N to S. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of 
the United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
particularly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of 
Florida Tue and Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek.

A surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean, extending from 
19.5N86W to 15.5N84W, is supporting scattered showers and 
thunderstorms in the region. Gusty and erratic winds and rapidly 
building seas can be expected near this activity. Elsewhere, 
widespread fresh to strong trade winds are noted via scatterometer
data over the central and eastern Caribbean as a moderate 
pressure gradient prevails between low pressure offshore of
northern Colombia and high pressure to the north. Recent 
altimeter data show rough seas cover the southwestern through 
eastern basin, with locally very rough seas to 12 ft noted 
offshore of northwestern Colombia. Farther east, rough seas in E 
swell prevail over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles and 
through the passages into the eastern basin. 

For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central 
Caribbean today, before diminishing some tonight into mid-week as 
a cold front enters the NW part of the basin. The front will move 
through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall from eastern Cuba 
to the coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating. 
This will lead to showers and thunderstorms and likely heavy 
rainfall over Honduras and adjacent waters through mid-week, with 
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front through 
Tue night. Offshore Colombia, the trade winds will pulse to near 
gale force each night through Tue night, then fresh to strong 
winds will persist the remainder of the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front entering the northwest tropical Atlantic is 
supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas offshore of 
northern Florida. Farther east, recent scatterometer data show 
fresh to locally strong S to SE winds are occurring as the 
pressure gradient increases between the front and a strong 1036 mb
Azores high pressure. This ridge is dominating much of the open 
tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds east 
of 65W. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted via altimeter and buoy 
data over the open waters, with very rough seas of 12 to 13 ft 
occurring from 18N to 25N between 28N and 43W. Elsewhere, a cold 
front extending from northwest Africa to 31N20W is supporting
strong to near-gale force N winds and 12 to 15 ft seas near and 
north of the front. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Atlantic high pressure 
will enhance the trades up to strong speeds east of 65W through 
Thu. A cold front moving off the SE of the United States this 
morning will bring fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas north 
of 27N through tonight. In addition, the pressure gradient between
the Atlantic high pressure and the front will also support fresh 
to strong southerly winds N of 27N and ahead of the front through 
tonight. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas 
by Mon morning, then stall from near Bermuda to the central 
Bahamas on Tue before dissipating on Wed. High pressure building 
over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to fresh to 
strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits 
into the middle of the week. 

$$
ADAMS