Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;028353
AXNT20 KNHC 200452
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0452 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced into the 00Z analysis. 
This wave is along 26W, south of 18N. Scattered moderated 
convection is depicted from 07N to 12N between 24W and 30W. 

A tropical wave is along 37.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed from 07N to 14N and between 30W and 43W.

A tropical wave is near 58.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at 
10 to 15 kt. Isolated convection is depicted from 12N to 14N
between 55W and 61.5W. 

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean along 74W,
south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection extends northeastward across 
western Hispaniola. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends
southwestward to 11N24W and to 10N52W. Beyond convection 
described above with the tropical waves, numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14N and east of 
18W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by 1017 mb high 
pressure located near 25N87W. This pattern supports a gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic wind flow across the basin, except for fresh
to locally strong W winds over the NE Gulf and NE winds west of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. Slight to moderate seas of generally 3 ft 
or less prevail across the basin. An upper level low center 
across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters is supporting 
scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions north of Tampa 
that are shifting westward to the NE Gulf. Another cluster of 
moderate to strong convection is noted north of 28.5N between 87W 
and 39W. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast 
period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of 
the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh 
to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in
the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from 
the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean, 
and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the central 
part of the basin. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle to 
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring across 
the SW Caribbean and into coastal portions of southern Nicaragua, 
Costa Rica and western Panama. Shallow moisture, embedded in the 
trade wind flow ahead of an approaching tropical wave, is 
producing isolated showers across the Lesser Antilles, south 
of 14N.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force
fresh to locally near gale-force trades along with rough seas 
across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast 
period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail 
over the north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend 
and into early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the 
tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a 
tropical wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 1017 mb low pressure near 
32N48.5W to 30N48.5W to a 1017 mb low pressure center located 
near 29.5N60.5W, then continues as a trough to just east of the 
SE Bahamas near 23.5N70W. Middle level troughing overhead of the 
stationary front is supporting clusters of scattered moderate 
isolated strong showers and thunderstorms S of the front and low 
between 47W and 60W. Moderate SW winds prevail south of the front.  
Seas area 4 to 6 ft within these winds. The remainder of the 
Atlantic is dominated by the Azores High centered near 42N29W, 
that extends southwestward across 30N and then a narrow ridge 
south of the front to near 74W. Under the influence of this 
system, mainly gentle to moderate trade winds are occurring S of 
22N E of 40W, and S of 27N W of 40W. However, small areas of 
fresh winds are noted approaching the Lesser Antilles, while 
moderate to fresh NE winds prevail from 17N to 24N E of 35W. Seas
across these areas are 6 to 8 ft. Otherwise, seas are generally 
moderate E of 63W, and slight to moderate W of 63W. Saharan Air 
continues to dominate the Tropical Atlantic N of 13N between 
Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will weaken to a trough tonight into Thu. Elsewhere, a weak 
pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over 
most of the waters north of 23N going into the upcoming weekend 
and into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh 
trades are expected south of about 22N, especially off northern 
Hispaniola through the period. 


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KRV