Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 240544
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Feb 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Western Atlantic Northwest Swell:
A large set of NW swell has been generated by a deep low pressure
area (previously a hurricane force low; now a storm force low)
over the NW Atlantic. This NW swell is propagating across the NW
discussion waters, with very rough seas of 12-16 ft over the
waters W of a line from 31N62W to 26N71W. These very rough seas 
will shift eastward over the waters N of 26N, reaching as far east
as 46W through midweek before subsiding below 12 ft. 

Large Central Atlantic Northwest Swell: A large set of NW swell, 
generated by a former storm force low N of the area (currently a 
gale force low) is bringing very rough seas of 12-16 ft over the 
waters N of a line from 30N45W to 26N41W to 30N30W. These very 
rough seas will shift SE through midweek to cover the waters N of 
20N and E of 30W before subsiding below 12 ft Thu. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N21W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 00N33W and to 02S45W. A few 
showers are noted near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1033 mb high pressure system over the Mississippi Valley extends
into the Gulf of America, resulting in fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas east of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds and rough seas are found in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. The
dry and cold continental airmass moving across the basin sustain
widespread stratocumulus clouds south of 25N, while generally
clear skies prevail north of 25N. Moisture banking along the
eastern flanks of the Sierra Madre Oriental may result in locally
heavy rainfall.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually subside from NW 
to SE tonight into Tue as the high pressure shifts E-SE and into 
the Atlantic by early Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow 
will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and expand across the SW
and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front 
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening. This next front is 
expected to stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican 
coastal waters late Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A cold front eastern from eastern Cuba to Central America. A few
showers are noted near the front. Moisture banking against the
mountainous terrain in Central America may result in locally 
heavy rainfall across Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. A pre-
frontal trough is producing some showers over Hispaniola. Fresh to
locally near gale-force northerly winds and rough seas are 
occurring behind the front. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh 
easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present in the 
remainder of the basin south of 15N. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent north of 15N. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will slide southeastward,
reaching NW Hispaniola to SE Nicaragua Tue before stalling Wed 
from eastern Hispaniola to near the Nicaragau-Costa Rica border. 
The strong winds and rough seas will gradually diminish Tue night 
through Wed as the front weakens. Broad high pressure will develop
across the central and western Atlantic Thu and Fri and bring a 
return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
Significant Swells in the western and central Atlantic. 

A strong cold front enters the basin near 31N62W and continues
southwestward to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Strong to near-
gale NW winds and very rough seas are N of 25N and W of the 
front. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas are 
elsewhere W of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas 
are N of 26N and E of the front to 53W. Farther east, a 1025 mb 
high is centered near 29N45W. Light to gentle winds are in the 
vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 
the high center due to the pressure gradient between this high and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate 
winds are noted elsewhere. Moderate to rough seas are elsewhere 
across the discussion waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front is expected
to move southeastward and reach from 31N60W to the NW Dominican 
Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will then stall 
from near 31N53W to the NE Dominican Republic early Wed, then 
drift W and dissipate through Thu. High pressure will shift into 
the Atlantic behind the front Tue night through Wed, and develop a
broad ridge across the region Thu and Fri. 

$$
Delgado