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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;876631
AXNT20 KNHC 091016
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb
Bermuda High and lower pressure in northern South America will
continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central
and portions of the SW Caribbean through the middle of next week,
with gale-force winds occurring through this morning offshore of
Colombia, and near gale-force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. The
ridge N of the region will shift southward to along 28N through
Tue and maintain strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas to 13 ft are expected
during the time of the gale-force winds, and then peak at 10 to
11 ft each of the next few nights.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is near 37W from 08N to 17N, moving west near 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between
32W-44W.
A tropical wave is along 46W from 13N to 24N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant
convection currently accompanies the wave.
A tropical wave is along 64W and S of 20N, moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis and N
of 14N.
Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west
coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will
be possible during the middle to latter part of the week while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17N and continues
southwestward to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 12N64W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted alond the ITCZ between 48W
and 54W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A low level trough over the northeastern Gulf extends from the
Florida panhandle area to near 26N92W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with this trough. A 1023 mb Bermuda High
extends a weak ridge westward along 32N and inland across the
northern Gulf states, and drapped across the trough. This weak
pressure pattern across the Gulf is supporting mostly light to
gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are occurring across the western coastal waters of the
Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a thermal trough there. Diffluent flow
aloft is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across the central portions of the basin, and along the Mexican
coast between Cabo Rojo and Veracruz.
For the forecast, the surface trough will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms through today as the trough moves
inland. Similar activity is noted in the Bay of Campeche and SW
Gulf with the passage of a diurnal surface trough. The surface
ridge will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will
support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight
seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and
night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan
Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect
for the waters north of Colombia and the tropical wave moving
across the basin.
The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located just west
of Bermuda and a 1008 mb Colombian low continues to support fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean south of 16N
and between 68W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 11 ft across much of this
area. Fresh to strong trade accompany a tropical wave across the
eastern Caribbean, to the N of 14N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.
Active weather near the wave is described above. Moderate to fresh
trades are over the remainder of the E Caribbean while gentle to
moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 5 ft with
these winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and regional
waters, including the Yucatan Channel, and are supported by upper
level troughing extending from the NE Caribbean west-
northwestward to the Yucatan channel.
For the forecast, the ridge N of the basin will gradually shift
southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near
gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
each night. Winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds during the
evenings and nights in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage
through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades
will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther
southward later this week, which may combine with an approaching
tropical wave to increase easterly trade winds again across the
basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
Scattered showers continue off northeast Florida, N of 29N and W
of 80W, to the east of a low level trough moving across the NE
Gulf of America and extending into SE Georgia. A broad ridge
dominates the waters north of 25N across the basin, broken only by
a trough reaching from 31N49W to 27N56W. Saharan air and
suspended dust is evident east of this trough, north of 13N. The
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N
and west of 55W into the E Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 7 ft.
South of 22N and east of 55W gentle to moderate trades prevail to
the Cabo Verde Islands, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Fresh to strong
NE winds and 5-8 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands
southwestward to 20N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to
moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers across the NW
zones off of Florida will diminish today as the surface trough
over the northeastern Gulf of America, continues to move NW away
from the area. The Bermuda High will shift southward to along 28N
through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in
the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing
to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic ridge will
drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in
stronger easterly winds.
$$
ERA
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