Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 250609
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Dec 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gales and Significant Swell: 
A strong cold front curves west-southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N62W to beyond 31N77W. It will bring W to NW near-gale to
gale-force winds across the central Atlantic, north of 29N between
56W and 62W tonight through early Thu morning. In addition, large
NW swell behind the cold front will cause 12 to 15 ft seas north
of 30N between 57W and 67W late tonight. Seas are expected to
build higher to between 12 and 20 ft and spread to 27N between 
53W and 69W by early Thu morning. Then these seas will gradually 
subside to between 12 and 17 ft but shift to north of 25N between 
49W and 64W Thu evening. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near
Conakry, then curves southwestward to 04N19W. An ITCZ continues 
from 04N19W through 03N35W to just north of Belem, Brazil at
0.5N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted near and north of the ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 43W and 
the Brazil/French Guiana coast. Widely scattered moderate
convection is found south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 06N
west of 15W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
strong thunderstorms at the central Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, A
1027 mb high at the northeastern Gulf is dominating the rest of
the Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
are present at the south-central and southeastern Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3
to 5 ft seas are noted at the north-central Gulf. Light to gentle
winds with seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1027 mb high will continue to support 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas across 
the south-central and southeastern Gulf through tonight. Areas of
fog are possible across the northern Gulf into Thu. A ridge will 
remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region 
the remainder of the week, with a high pressure center located 
over the northeastern Gulf Thu through Sat. This system will 
produce mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow with slight to 
moderate seas. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to 
enter the northwestern Gulf on Mon, followed by fresh to strong 
northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions will be 
possible in the far west-central Gulf, and in the northwest part 
of the southwestern Gulf Mon night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean
Sea. Convergent trades are creating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and south of Haiti. Fresh
to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident at the
south-central basin, lee of Cuba, near the Windward Passage
and near Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are seen at the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western 
Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support 
fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, 
and the central Caribbean through Thu night, except through Mon 
off Colombia. Long-period northerly swell moving into the 
northeastern passages will gradually subside Thu. This will be 
followed by additional northerly swell arriving into northeastern 
passages late Fri into Sat before subsiding Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features at the beginning about Gales and Significant
Swell.

A strong cold front curves west-southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N62W to beyond 31N77W. Patchy showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 50 nm north of the
front. Convergent SE to SW winds farther east are causing
scattered to numerous showers and isolated strong thunderstorms
north of 27N between 56W and 63W. At the central Atlantic, a
weakening stationary front reaches southwestward from the north- 
central Atlantic across 31N37W to 23N57W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring up to 150 nm along either side of this 
boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional 
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft dominate
north of 27N between 52W and 72W. Gentle to moderate N to NE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N and west of 72W.
From 20N to 27N between 52W and 72W, gentle to moderate N to NE
winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large northerly swell exist.
Farther east, north of 20N between 35W and 52W, gentle to moderate
SE to S winds with 6 to 10 ft seas in large NW swell are noted.
For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate
swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate tonight. The aforementioned strong cold front is
anticipated to move across the Atlantic waters east of the 
Bahamas through early Thu while weakening. Large swell continues 
to impact the region east of the Bahamas. Strong winds and a new 
set of large reinforcing swell will follow this front, mainly over
the waters east of 70W through Thu. Another cold front will move 
over the waters between northeastern Florida and Bermuda Fri 
before moving east of the area Sat. It will be followed by 
additional reinforcing swell east of 70W. Looking ahead, yet 
another front will move off northeastern Florida coast Sat, and 
move east of the region through Mon. 

$$

Chan