Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;930344
AXNT20 KNHC 031017
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 
03N27W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N27W to 05N43W to 04N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and east
of 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Venice, Florida to 25N87W, where it 
becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate
to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are found behind the
front, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail ahead
of the front. No significant showers or thunderstorms are active 
across the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slow down
this morning, while the stationary front lifts northward as 
another low pressure system forms over South Texas and the NW 
Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop this 
afternoon in W Gulf and spread eastward tonight into Thu. Then, 
another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend 
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall 
and gradually dissipate. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is 
likely to sweep across the Gulf late Sun into Mon, bringing strong
N winds over much of the basin. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft supports a few showers over the Lesser Antilles
and nearby waters. Strong showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring in the SW Caribbean off Panama and Costa Rica. A weak
pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate to locally
fresh NE winds and moderate seas in the south-central and SW
Caribeban, while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of 
the basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week. 
Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will 
persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into
the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the NW 
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh
to strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted within 
180 nm east of the front, with fresh NW winds and 5 to 9 ft 
following the front. Another surface trough extends along 68W 
south of 28N to Puerto Rico. A few showers and thunderstorms are 
noted east of the trough near 23N60W. A ridge axis is noted 
between the front and this trough, from Bermuda to central Cuba. 
Fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 11 ft seas cover the 
remainder of the North Atlantic south of 31N and east of the 
trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will extend from near 
Bermuda to South Florida later this morning, and from 31N70W to 
the Straits of Florida by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to strong 
easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently 
located just N of Puerto Rico. The trough will continue to move 
westward passing N of Hispaniola today and Thu. Winds and seas in 
the wake of the trough are gradually diminishing. Looking ahead, a
cold front will reach the waters off NE Florida Fri resulting in 
fresh to locally strong winds N of 29N and west of 75W by Fri 
afternoon. These winds and locally rough seas will then shift 
eastward into the weekend.

$$
Delgado