Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;035764
AXNT20 KNHC 120414
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of
organization along a tropical wave located along 38W, around 700
nm SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development over the next few days
and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days
will the system moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt across the central
tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical formation
in the next 48 hours and a high chance of development over the
next 7 days. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging off the African coast along 18W,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
ahead of this wave from 10N to 13N between 18W and 23W. 

See the Special Features section above for information on a
tropical wave, Invest AL92, that is likely to develop into a
tropical depression.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W extending southward from
18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 14N between 56W and 60W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W S of 22N, crossing
portions of Hispaniola, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is confined to waters within about 90 nm of 
the coast of Hispaniola. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, S of 21N, extending
through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern
Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 20N and W of 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues 
southwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N32.5W to 11N52W. Aside 
from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, 
scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 08N to 13N and east of 21W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 
mb high centered near 28N84W. A surface trough has moved westward
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and is inducing scattered moderate
convection in the central Bay of Campeche. Light winds and slight
seas encompass the NE basin closest to the high, with gentle to
moderate SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends westward 
across the northern Gulf, and will change little through Sat 
before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh 
winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into 
the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface 
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW 
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
impacting the basin. 

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
the Colombian low is supporting strong winds over the central 
Caribbean, with associated rough seas. Fresh NE winds are also
funnelling through the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate winds and
seas prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western 
Atlantic ridge along 27N-28N and lower pressure in northern South 
America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the 
central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge will 
shift southward to near 26N by Thu and combine with a passing 
tropical wave, and allow strong trades to significantly expand in 
coverage over the central and eastern portions of the basin into 
early Sat. Winds will pulse up to strong speeds during the 
evenings and at night in the the Windward Passage through the 
forecast period. Looking ahead, sowers and thunderstorms 
associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are 
showing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development 
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will 
likely form during the latter half of this week while the system 
moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic, and approaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL91
located well SW of the Cabo Verde Islands.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 
1021 mb high centered near 27N50W. Mainly gentle winds prevail 
over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate
seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N, with 
moderate seas. Offshore Africa, NE of the Cabo Verde Islands,
including the Canary Islands, fresh to locally strong NE winds
with moderate to locally rough seas dominate. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central 
Atlantic along 50W extends westward along 27N-28N to Florida, and 
will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu, then change 
little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds
will freshen S of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical 
wave moving across the region. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in
the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds 
each night. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical 
wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved 
organization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
become more conducive for development during the next couple of 
days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter
half of this week while the system moves westward to west- 
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and approaches
the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. 

$$
Konarik