Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 041750
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Mar 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between 
strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low
pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale- 
force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions
of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at 
least Sat night. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due 
to the enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W to 05N18W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil 
near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing off the
coast of Brazil near the end of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends across the basin with generally 
quiet weather. Winds are moderate from the E to SE and seas are
mainly slight, except for fresh E winds and moderate seas in the 
SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend
a broad ridge southwestward into the SE U.S. into the weekend. 
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf, pulsing to 
fresh to strong each night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

Surface ridging from strong high pressure centered N of the area 
is supporting fresh to strong winds over the eastern and central 
Caribbean where seas are moderate to rough, except very rough 
offshore Colombia. In the Windward Passage, winds are fresh to 
strong from the NE while moderate to fresh NE winds remain across 
the lee side of Cuba and the remainder NW Caribbean along with 
moderate seas.

For the forecast, a broad ridge of high pressure will prevail N 
of the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale- force
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun. 
Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the 
overnight hours through Fri night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will pulse through the 
forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds 
will pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very
rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N 
Atlantic will continue through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

High pressure prevails across the subtropical and tropical 
Atlantic basin. The tail end of a stalled front weakens the 
ridge, entering the area near 31N54W and extending to 25N65W. 
Scattered showers are ahead of the front and north of 25N. Seas 
are elevated to 10 ft across much of the eastern and central 
Atlantic due to long period NE to E swell propagating from a 
former gale- force low near Morocco. Elsewhere over the SW N 
Atlantic waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the east, 
except fresh to locally strong S of 24N W of 55W, including the 
approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas within these winds are 
moderate to rough.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will prevail S of 24N 
and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas N 
of 27N and E of 72W will subside today. Moderate to fresh winds 
will prevail S of 25N through the period, reaching strong speeds N
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage. Gentle to moderate winds
can be expected N of 25N.

$$
Mora