Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 282200
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jul 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa in the far E
Atlantic with axis near 18W, extending from 03N to 18N, and moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 10N between 15W and 27W.

A tropical wave is in moving from the E to the central Atlantic 
with axis near 38W, extending from 06N to 16N, and moving 
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the
wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 65W, 
extending from 10N to 19N or from northern Venezuela to near the
Anegada Passage, and moving westward at around 15 kt. No 
significant convection is depicted at the moment in association 
with this wave. 

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis along 83W, south
of 18N along the eastern coast of Nicaragua to across the border
of Costa Rica and Panama and into the far eastern Tropical Pacific
Ocean, and moving westward at around 10 kt. A cluster of 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16.5N between
79W and 89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of
Mauritania at 18N16W and continues to across the southern Cabo
Verde Islands to 08N42W. The ITCZ begins near 08N42W and 
continues to 07N48W to 09.5N57W. Scattered moderate convection is
present offshore Africa, from 04N to 10.5N between the African 
coast and 20W. Other than the convection associated with the
tropical wave near 18W as described above, a small cluster of 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 42W
and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is ongoing over 
the E Gulf, from 25.5N to 29N between Florida and 88W in 
associated with low level convergence occurring near a surface 
trough that extends across central Florida to near Tampa Bay. 
Similar convection is depicted near the coast of NW Cuba. The 
remainder Gulf is under the influence of a 1014 mb high centered 
near 28N93W, which is supporting light to gentle anticyclonic
winds along a ridge from the Yucatan Channel to the high to near
Galveston Bay, Texas. Moderate anticyclonic winds are closer to
all coastal locations around the periphery of the high. Seas are
mainly 1 to 3 ft, except locally higher near NE Mexico and SE
Texas. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds 
for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds 
off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the 
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during 
the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to the presence of a 
frontal boundary over north- central Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on associated convection. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring
over and nearshore western Jamaica.

Atlantic ridging dominates the region north of the basin, 
extending W-SW along 24N and across the central Bahamas. The 
pressure gradient between relatively low pressure over South 
America and the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trades over 
the Caribbean from 11N to 18N along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Winds 
are moderate or weaker across the remainder of basin, with slight 
to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aerial extent and strength of the trade 
winds will increase from late Wed into Thu as the pressure 
gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombia Low 
increases. By that time, expect fresh to strong winds and moderate
to rough seas across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, 
with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh
to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly from
Wed through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough reaches from north of the discussion waters
through 31N72W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida continuing across
Central Florida to near Tampa Bay. Fresh to strong SW winds are
found north of 27N and east of the boundary to near 63W, along
with 5 to locally 8 ft seas, highest near 31N. Nearby scattered
moderate convection is found east of the trough to near 63W to the
north of 23N. A 1025 mb high pressure near 29N47W and a 1021 mb
high pressure near 32.5N22W dominates the remainder subtropical 
Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh trades can be found north of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ to about 22N around the high, with
moderate to locally fresh return flow west of 55W and elsewhere
southeast of the frontal trough. Fresh to locally strong winds are
near Africa to the Canary Islands from 17N to 30N to the east of
20W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the
remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This 
in combination with a stationary frontal boundary off NE Florida 
will force fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several 
days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from Wed through Sat. 

$$
Lewitsky