Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 272322
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between 
Atlantic high pressure and relatively low pressure over Colombia 
will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela to peaking at gale-force speeds again tonight into 
Sun morning. These winds are forecast to sustain seas in the 
range of 9 to 14 ft northwest through north of Colombia as latest
altimeter satellite data is already revealing seas greater than 
10 ft. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale-
force trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore 
northern Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters 
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic short-amplitude tropical wave has its axis 
extending from 10N35W to 02N41W. It is moving westward at about 15 
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 
nm either side of the wave from 06N to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 20N51W to 14N56W 
to 07N59W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is east of the wave within 60 nm of 12.5N54W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 13N 
between 50W and 59W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is just inland Belize and
Guatemala, or near 88W south of 19N. It is moving westward near
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
within 120 nm west of the wave from 15N to 17N. Isolated showers 
and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the wave from 16N 
tom 18N. For future information on this wave please refer to the
eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 10N21W
and to 09N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N30W to
08N36W. It resumes at 04N41W to 02N47W and to 01N51W. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 11N 
between the coast of Africa and 21W. A squall line emerging off
the coast is contributing to this activity. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high center, part of the western extension of Atlantic
high pressure, is located over the NE Gulf. A ridge extends from
the high west-southwestward to central Texas. The related gradient 
is generally allowing for moderate to locally fresh southeast to 
south winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft west of 90W and 2 to 3 ft east of 
90W as indicated by recent altimeter satellite data and from recent 
buoy observations. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist into early next week
providing for a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the 
basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong
northeast to east winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan 
Peninsula nightly through Thu, and moderate to locally fresh 
southeast to south winds across the northwestern Gulf through Sun
night. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink 
southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night into Tue and 
gradually dissipate. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding 
upcoming gale conditions for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the expected gale conditions, the pressure gradient 
between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and 
adjacent areas is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over much 
of the central Caribbean, and westward from there to the Gulf of 
Honduras as seen in the latest scatterometer satellite data. Fresh 
to strong northeast winds are in the Windward Passage as also seen 
in the latest scatterometer satellite data. Moderate seas are with 
the aforementioned winds. Moderate to fresh trade winds and slight 
seas are over the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds 
and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central 
Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force
offshore of Colombia tonight into early Sun morning. Elsewhere, 
pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas 
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras this evening and tonight. Fresh 
to strong northeast winds and moderate to locally rough seas will 
briefly affect the Windward Passage this evening and tonight. 
Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast 
across the remainder of the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is analyzed from 31N64W to 25N67W and to the eastern tip 
of the Dominican Republic while another trough is analyzed from 
26N56W to near 18N60W. Meanwhile, a couple of upper-level lows 
within the general area of these troughs are seen in water vapor 
imagery, with the first one near 28N61W and the second one, less 
defined, near 28N48W. Instability created by these features has 
produced an area of scattered moderate convection from 20N to 27N
between 44W and 49W, and scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are present from 24N to 28N between 55W and 65W. A 
very moist and unstable easterly wind flow around the southern 
periphery of high pressure ridging that is roughly along 28N has
lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms 
over and near the northern and central Bahamas extending south 
and southwest to the eastern part of the Straits of Florida. High
pressure generally covers the basin north of about 15N east of 
the Lesser Antilles, and elsewhere north of the Greater Antilles.
The related gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds
south of about 24N and east of 72W, and also between the Bahamas
and Cuba. In the far eastern part of the basin, fresh to strong 
north winds are present from 18N to 29N east of 22W to along the 
coast of Africa. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are over these waters. Otherwise, 
seas of moderate state are over the majority of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging will be the 
main feature controlling the general wind flow pattern over the 
area through Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds along with locally
rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola this evening and 
tonight. The trough that is along the position from 31N64W to 
25N67W and to the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic will
continue to shift westward across the western portion of the 
basin tonight, reaching near 70W by Sun morning while 
dissipating. This will slightly weaken the ridge. Looking ahead, 
a low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the 
southeastern coast of the United States along the western end of 
a frontal system early next week. Slow development of this system
will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward.

$$
Aguirre