Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 201500
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed May 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W, south
of 15N, and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection
is noted near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa 
near 12N16W and extends southwestward to near 06N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N20W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted within 150 nm N of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous moderate to isolated scattered moderate convection 
generated from outflow boundaries associated with earlier 
thunderstorms over Texas, is impacting waters within 90 nm of the 
Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. This activity is bringing 
locally higher winds and seas. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails
across the Gulf waters. Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft
range over the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western 
Atlantic to the north-central Gulf will change little during the 
next few days. The pressure gradient between it and relatively 
lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally 
maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across 
the basin through the weekend, with the exception of winds pulsing
to fresh to strong speeds from the late afternoons and into the 
night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very 
moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled 
weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms in the NW Gulf for the next few days. Mariners 
transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for 
rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high centered near 32N60W
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds
over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds over over
the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the south central 
Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South
America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- 
central portion of the Caribbean through the weekend. These trades
will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. 
Fresh trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of 
Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the waters NE of the Bahamas. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the
Bahamas. A cold front extends from 31N32W to 26N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail over the waters S of 25N and west of 60W.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 6-8
ft range S of 25N and W of 60W, as well as S of 20N and W of 50W.
Rough seas follow the cold front mentioned above that has ushered
in a set of NW swell. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low and 
accompanying surface trough northeast of the Bahamas will continue
to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over 
most of the waters roughly between the Bahamas and 70W through at 
least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty 
winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will 
pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons
and evenings through Fri. Otherwise, high pressure centered just 
north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions 
through the period.

$$
AL