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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 132220
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
along 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. The tightening pressure
gradient will increase winds in the south central Caribbean, with
winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela on Friday night. Very rough seas to 13 ft will build
near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri
night into early Sat. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind
data indicate that the system does not have a closed circulation.
This system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-
level winds and dry air, and the development chances appear to be
decreasing. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are
possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development.
There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the
next 48 hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 02N to 20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 29W and 36W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
There is a low chance for tropical development of this system in
the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next
7 days.
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
wave with axis near 46W.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
southwestward to 10N33W to 14N44W then to 06.5N56W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES
section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 15N between 13W and 22W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across
Florida and into the Gulf region will change little through Sat
before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of
fresh winds are expected north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal
surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across
the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the
forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning
that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin
effective Fri night.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas are over
the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to
moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.
For the forecast, tradewinds will increase over the central
Caribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale force
just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into
Sat morning. A strong tropical wave- Invest AL92 - should start
impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow evening. Strong
to near gale force along with areas of heavy rain are expected Fri
night and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward
toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including
the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards the
tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.
A surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to
the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 28N47W. Light to gentle
winds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center,
mainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and
rough seas, generated by AL92 are from 12N to 17N between 41W and
50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary Islands
SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds, and moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected south of 22N tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere, winds
are expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days.
A weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border
east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little
change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N.
$$
AL
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