Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141020
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning:
Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine zone
until 14/09Z. Please visit website:
https://wwwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more
detail.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf by Sun 
night. As the front moves across the basin through early next 
week, gale-force NW winds will develop in the wake of the front 
mainly W of 94W. Rough seas are expected with these winds. These 
conditions will dissipate by late Mon. 

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 04N19W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 03S42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 270 nm on either side of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends southwestward from Cape Sable in 
southwest Florida to beyond Cancun, Mexico. Gentle to moderate NE
to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present near the aforementioned
front, and along the Mexico and Texas coastline. Surface ridging 
prevails across the basin in the wake of the front, anchored by a 
high pressure centered N of the area with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the front will lift back to the N today as high
pressure over the region begins to shift eastward. A strong cold 
front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun night, quickly 
reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it 
moves into the northwestern Caribbean by late Tue. Strong to near 
gale-force N winds will follow the front along with seas rapidly 
becoming rough. Gale-force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, 
and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. 
The winds offshore Veracruz may attain brief gusts to storm-force.
In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the 
region into midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia is supporting pulsing 
fresh to strong trades across the south-central basin. Rough seas
are expected with these winds. Fresh E trade winds and moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere E of 83W, while moderate E winds and slight
seas are noted W of 83W. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong trades will prevail across
the south-central basin through the morning hours. The high 
pressure will shift eastward today, with a brief weakening of the
gradient allowing for fresh to strong trades to be confined to 
south of 13N between 72W and 76W. Afterward, new high pressure 
will build westward across the central Atlantic next week, with 
the resulting pressure gradient leading to fresh to strong trades 
and building seas extending from the Tropical North Atlantic to 
the eastern and central Caribbean, including through passages.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A stationary front meanders southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N69W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond the southern tip of 
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
occurring near and up to 50 nm on either side of the front. Farther
east, a surface trough embedded within the trade winds is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the Windward
Islands from 10N to 16N between 51W and 54W. 

Gentle with moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
evident north of 23N between 55W and the Florida/southern Georgia 
coast. To the east and southeast, moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 05N between 35W and 
55W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 23N between 55W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist. 
For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate 
NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure will build west- 
southwestward toward the Bahamas through the weekend before it 
will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold
front. The front will move off the U.S. southeastern coast Mon 
evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N72W to the central 
Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly
winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters 
starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. Fresh to strong 
northwest winds will follow the front through Tue. To the south, 
rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters 
E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during 
midweek.

$$
ERA