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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;131693
AXNT20 KNHC 101050
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
West Atlantic Significant Swell: Strong high pressure over s the
NW Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward and across the local
western Atlantic waters, to the north of a stalled cold front
lingering from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas. A very
tight pressure gradient north of this front is producing a long
and sustained fetch of strong northeast winds that is generating
very rough seas in the Atlantic waters north of the front.
Overnight SoFar Ocean buoys and recent altimeter data show a
large area of 11 to 15 ft seas persisting north of the front to
31N, and extending westward to just offshore of the east coast of
Florida. Strong northeast winds and very rough seas will prevail
for the next few hours before winds gradually diminish late
tonight, as the front weakens. Large northeast swell at 12-13
seconds will maintain rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas
into the start of next week, but are expected to subside below 12
ft this morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to return Sat
night into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens
again.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both areas of significant swell.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea near 10.5N14.5W and extends southwestward to 03.5N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to NE Brazil near
01.5S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 19W and 24W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between
16W-20.5N
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Broad ridging extends from the eastern U.S southwestward to
across the Gulf region. A lingering frontal boundary is weakening
from the central Bahamas to along the NW coast of Cuba. The
associated pressure gradient north of this boundary is leading to
fresh to strong northeast to east winds across the eastern and north-
central Gulf along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, northeast to
east winds are moderate or weaker, with seas 3 to 5 ft, except for
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 23N.
A mid-level disturbance moving across South Texas as seen in
water vapor imagery is triggering off a large area of light to
moderate rain, with embedded scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the interior of South Texas. This activity also
extends into northeastern Mexico, and east from there to the
offshore waters near 96W from 25N to 26N. This activity may hold
together as it generally moves eastward across the western Gulf
through this afternoon.
For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will
support strong northeast winds and rough seas across the
northeast Gulf through early this morning. Moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds and moderate seas elsewhere across basin will
change little through the middle of next week, except for occasional
strong east winds off western Cuba and off the northwest Yucatan.
Locally rough seas will continue in the Straits of Florida into
early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weaker pressure gradient over the area is allowing for fresh to
strong trades to be confined to the south-central portion of the
basin, south of about 15N. Seas with these winds are in the range
of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere across the Caribbean winds are moderate or
weaker along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for 1 to 3 ft seas in
the northwestern section of the basin.
Shallow moisture in the form of scattered to broken low clouds
embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern basin. Brief passing showers are
possible within this area of moisture.
For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from
the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and
increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the
south- central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next
week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will
commence south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of
Hispaniola starting Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
western Atlantic significant swell offshore Florida.
A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low near 32N66W southwestward
to 30N67W, where it becomes a nearly stationary front to near
23N75W. Strong high pressure is building southward north of the
front. A surface trough is analyzed out ahead of the frontal
boundary from near 31N64W to 27N69W and to 24N73W. Meanwhile, an
upper shortwave trough shifting eastward is noted on water vapor
imagery just east of surface trough, and is helping to sustain
scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 60W and 65W, and
from 23N to 25N between 65W and 71W. Similar activity is seen within
60 nm east of the cold front. Overnight scatterometer satellite data
indicates fresh to strong northeast winds and rough to very rough
seas of 11 to 15 ft north the front, while gentle to moderate winds
and rough seas in long-period north swell are up to around 240 nm
ahead of the front. Elsewhere, a strong 1034 mb Azores High is
centered north of the discussion area near 35N37W, with a ridge
stretching southwestward to near 21N62W. Broad anticyclonic flow
related to this feature covers the area north of about 15N and
between Africa and 64W. The large pressure gradient between the high
pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting fresh to strong trades from 10N to 26N and east of
50W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft east of 52W, and 5 to 8 ft east of the
front to 52W. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 13N along with
seas of 7 to 10 ft in long-period north to northeast swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure difference between
the aforementioned frontal boundary and the strong high pressure
to its north will maintain mostly strong northeast winds for a few
more hours before they diminish to mostly fresh speeds. Rough
seas from large northeast swell will linger into this afternoon
and into the start of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas.
Fresh to strong northeast winds are likely to return Sat night
into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.
$$ Aguirre
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