Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 030436
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0435 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is added to the 0000 UTC analysis/surface map 
along 18W/19W south of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 14N E of 20W to the coast of W Africa.

A tropical wave is along 44W, south of 20N, moving westward at
around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is on either side of
the trough axis from 12N to 17N between 40W and 48W. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds are from 15N to 20N between 40W and 48W. 

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is
along 59W south of 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave 
is interacting with an upper-level trough to its west, and 
producing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 24N between 
54W and 61W. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong
winds near the northern end of the wave axis, particularly from
19N to 21N between 55W and 59W. Moisture associated with the wave
will increase the probability of rain across the Lesser Antilles 
today. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 17N16W and continues westward to 14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N48W to 11N57W. In addition to the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 08N between 20W and 35W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1016 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf near 29N87W
dominates the basin, and is supporting light to gentle winds and 
slight seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE
winds over the west-central waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are affecting the western Florida peninsula and coastal waters. 
Meanwhile, the remnants of Edouard continue to add heavy rainfall 
to flooded areas across east Texas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure in place over the region will
generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas across the Gulf through the next few days. The presence of 
abundant tropical moisture will favor scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf through the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the central Bahamas and central 
Cuba generating scattered to numerous showers, with embedded 
thunderstorms, over most of Cuba and the Cayman Islands. An
upper-level low over the SE Gulf of America and the Yucatan 
peninsula is also helping to induce this convective activity. 
The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area 
and the Colombian Low supports fresh to locally strong trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela.
Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the central 
Caribbean while mainly moderate trades are noted over the eastern 
part of the basin. Gentle to locally moderate winds are occurring 
in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with the strongest winds, 
and 3 to 5 elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where seas are 1 
to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, the trough will continue moving WNW through Thu
night while becoming diffuse. Elsewhere across the basin, the 
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure
in northern South America will maintain mostly fresh trades along
with moderate seas over the central Caribbean, and over the western
portion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat night. These trades 
are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds while expanding
in coverage over the south-central portion of the basin on Sun. 
Winds reaching near gale are expected Mon night and Tue night near
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong east winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Mon night. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
will continue across the remainder of the basin during the period.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As previously mentioned, a surface trough extends over the central
Bahamas and central Cuba, and is generating some shower and
thunderstorm activity over the Bahamas and regional waters. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence 
of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1026 mb located 
NE of the Azores near 41N19W. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and a surface trough over Morocco and Western Sahara is 
promoting fresh to locally strong N to NE winds N of 20N and E of 
22W, including the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range
with this winds. Moderate to fresh winds are just offshore 
Hispaniola with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the waters W of about 70W through the rest of 
the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift 
westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains
in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW Sat through
Sun night enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms
over the NW portion of the area. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge
will provide for generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas over the forecast waters. 

$$
GR