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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 142342
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Dec 15 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force northwest to north
winds and rough seas of 10 to 15 ft (3 to 4.5 M) in north swell
are expected over some portions of the waters east of northern
Florida this evening and into Mon morning in the wake of an
arctic cold front that has recently moved over the waters east of
northeast Florida along a position from near 31N78W to inland
northern Florida near Saint Augustine. Widespread strong to near-
gale force northerly winds along with rough seas in northwest to
north swell are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas
northward and west of a line from 31N50W to 22N72W through early
on Tue. The swell will reach the islands of the northeast
Caribbean late Tue night into early Wed as it merged with east
swell. Seas will begin to gradually subside from NW to SE Wed
through Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.
East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period north
to northeast swell continues to affect most of the eastern
tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Seas 12 ft or greater are
currently from 10N to 19N between 26W and 45W, and from 10N to
30N east of 26W along with peak seas to 13 ft (4 M)just southwest
of the Canary Islands. The swell direction is from the N to NE
winds at a period of 10-16 seconds. With persistent fresh to
strong northeast northeast trade winds, the area of 12 ft (4 M)
or greater seas will expand westward to near 50W by early Mon
before they slowly subside from NE to SW going into Tue. For
information east of 35W please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2. For
information west of 35W, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and
continues southwestward to 05N19W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 04N30W to 02N40W and to inland South America near 01N52W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
120 nm south of the trough and ITCZ between 16W-22W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between
the coast of Africa and 16W and within 30 to 60 nm of the ITCZ
between 22W-27W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
An arctic cold front extends from near Apalachicola to the
northeast Mexico-Texas border as strong high pressure builds in
over the basin behind it. The very tight pressure gradient
between the front and the high pressure is bringing strong to
near-gale force northeast winds, with frequent gusts to gale
force over Gulf coastal waters and occasional gusts to gale-force
just east of these waters as indicated in the latest buoy
observations and by a 1620Z Ascat pass. Seas with these winds are
in the range 8 to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 M). Scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving southward are present south of the front to
near 22N and west of 96W to just inland the coast of Mexico. The
latest Ascat satellite data shows gentle to moderate north to
northeast winds elsewhere across the basin along with seas of 4
to 6 ft. Lower seas of 3 to 4 ft are over the extreme eastern Bay
of Campeche.
For the forecast, the cold front will sweep across the rest of the
Gulf reaching south of the basin Mon night. Winds will become fresh
to strong in speeds and northeast in direction across just about the
entire Gulf on Mon, except for mostly strong northerly winds along
the coast of Mexico near Tampico and Veracruz. By late Mon night,
gentle to moderate east winds are expected north of 26N, and mostly
fresh northeast to east winds are expected south of 26N. Seas at
that time are expected to be 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6
to 9 f t in north to northeast swell south of 26N. Afterward, seas
will slowly subside during the middle portion of the week as high
pressure dominates the region.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Atlantic high pressure has shifted eastward to the central
Atlantic. As as result, the trade winds over the eastern
Caribbean have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds, but
continue at fresh to strong speeds across the central Caribbean
waters. Gentle to moderate trade winds are over the western
Caribbean. Latest satellite altimeter data passes indicate seas
of 5 to 8 ft over most of the basin east of about 81W, with the
exception of higher seas of 7 to 9 ft from 11N to 16N between 72W
and 80W. Lower seas of 4 to 5 ft are west of 81W. Seas may be
locally higher in Atlantic Passages of the Lesser Antilles due to
arriving east swell. Otherwise, a trough is analyzed over the
northwestern Caribbean along a position from near 20N84W to
18N86W and to near 16N 87W. An area of scattered to numerous
moderate convection is east of the trough from 16N to 18N between
84W and 86W as an upper-level impulse rides along a subtropical
jet stream present over the western Caribbean. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 19N between 80W and 88W.
Mostly overcast low and mid- level clouds are present north of
16N between 78W and 84W. Patches of light to moderate rain along
with isolated showers are embedded within this area of
cloudiness.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean will continue
to diminish as Atlantic high pressure shifts well to the
northeast of the region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trade winds and rough seas in large east swell will prevail over
the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and
into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold
front will enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon, followed
by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This
front is expected to reach from central Cuba to northern Belize
Tue morning, then will stall and gradually dissipate through Wed.
High pressure will build over the western Atlantic Wed night
through Thu night to bring a return to fresh to strong trades
across the central Caribbean.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for more information on
a gale warning for the western Atlantic waters offshore northern
Florida, and for a significant swell event in the eastern
Atlantic.
An arctic cold front is just inland the Georgia coast. A trough
is analyzed from near 31N73W southwestward to central Bahamas and
to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W while at the same time a rather
broad upper-level trough is advancing eastward over the eastern
United States. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are
between the trough and 63W while light and variable winds are
west of the trough, except for gentle to moderate northwest winds
from 27N to 29N and moderate to fresh northwest winds north of
29N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft west of the trough, except for lower seas
of 3 to 4 ft south of about 25N. A well pronounced jet stream
branch rounds the base of the trough from near 31N79W to the
eastern Gulf of America near 26N87W. Abundant overcast multilayer
cloudiness is evident between 67W and 79W, and mostly mid to
upper broken to overcast clouds shifting eastward are north of
21N between 55W and 67W. Satellite imagery also shows scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 21N between 67W
and 73W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving northeast
around 10 kt are north of 27N between 73W and 78W. Isolated
showers are south of 27N between 73W and 79W.
A 1028 mb high center is analyzed at 31N43W as a dissipating
stationary extends from 31N41W to 31N55W. Isolated showers
are possible north of 30N between 35W and 40W. A tight pressure
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure
to its south is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over
the waters south of about 25N and east of 62W. Seas are 8 to 11
ft with these trade winds, except as noted above in the Special
Features section.
For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned arctic cold front
will move to over the far northwest waters east of northern
Florida early this evening, followed by strong to near gale-
force northerly winds and rapidly building seas through
Mon morning. Gale-force winds are expected behind the front this
evening through early Mon. The front will reach from just east
of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida by Mon
morning, then stall from near 29N55W to the southeastern Bahamas
and central Cuba by Tue morning. Large north swell will build
across the regional waters behind the front tonight through Tue
before subsiding.
$$
Aguirre
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