Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 091612
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Mar 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to 
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through the early part of the week. Winds 
offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force Tue night. Seas of 
8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 01N24W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil at 
02S42W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends across the basin from the W-central 
Atlantic. Gentle winds are found N of 25N along with slight seas, 
with gentle to moderate E-SE winds and moderate seas prevailing 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will prevail through 
midweek. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern
Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker
winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to 
moderate through Wed. A cold front may impact the northwestern 
Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the basin through 
Fri night with winds increasing to fresh to strong speeds and seas
building to 9 ft behind it. A brief period of gale force winds 
may be possible offshore of Veracruz early on Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a developing
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. 

A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high
pressure to the north is supporting fresh to strong trade winds 
over the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds are moderate to 
fresh across much of the remaining basin. Rough seas prevail in 
the central Caribbean. Seas are moderate in the eastern and SW 
Caribbean, except locally rough near Atlantic passages, while 
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed
night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to
gale-force during the night-time hours Tue night. Fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward
Passage through mid-week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large
easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will
keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed night.
Marine conditions will improve slightly by the end of the week
as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front
approaching the NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical 
Atlantic, supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds 
south of 27N. Rough seas in E swell are noted in this region as 
well as east of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, the remnants of a 
frontal boundary are analyzed as a surface trough, extending from 
31N37W to 25N41W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring N of 27N
between the trough and 37W. Associated remnant rough seas are 
found N of 28N between 27W and 47W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are possible N of 22N between 33W and 42W. Farther 
east, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail 
off the coast of northwest Africa, supported by a strong pressure 
gradient between a high to the north over the Azores and lower 
pressures over northwest Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest of the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 27N through midweek, reaching strong north 
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will 
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast 
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected 
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may 
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold 
front. That front may move offshore Thu with fresh to strong winds
and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near 
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night.

$$
ERA