Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;510237
AXNT20 KNHC 021747
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to 
support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very 
rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW 
Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force 
over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal 
drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous
gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE
swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has 
propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas 
currently over the waters from 08N to 23N between 35W and 55W. 
The rough to very rough seas, currently peaking near 12-13 ft, 
will gradually subside from east to west through Tue night. Rough
seas are then forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles later
this week. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Liberia near
05N09W and continues southwestward to 01N13W. The ITCZ extends 
from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate convection is noted S of 10N and E of 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf along 86W.
Moderate to fresh E winds are east of the trough, with gentle to
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere across the Gulf. Slight seas
prevail basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the N central 
Atlantic southwestward across the region through the week, with 
the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh east 
to southeast winds across the Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche 
where winds will be mostly moderate northeast to east. Fresh to 
strong winds will occur nocturnally off the northern Yucatan 
Peninsula starting Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

Surface ridging from strong high pressure over the E CONUS and
also the Azores High extends across the northern Caribbean, thus
supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds over the 
eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in
the lee side of Cuba. Seas in the regions of highest winds are
moderate, except for rough seas offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, a broad area of high pressure over the central 
Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force trades along with 
moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean 
through Fri night. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force 
during the nocturnal hours for the next few days. Fresh to strong 
northeast winds in the Windward Passage will continue through the 
end of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds will 
pulse in the lee of Cuba at night and into the mornings also 
through the end of the week. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to 
strong winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. 
Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in wind generated east swell 
over the tropical N Atlantic will begin to slowly subside on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Please see Special Features above for information on a significant
swell event.

A strong Azores high extending a ridge into the deep tropical
waters continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to
E winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa 
all the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 27N. 
Northwest of the Canary Islands, a cold front brings fresh to 
strong N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell. Lastly, a weak 
stationary front extends from 31N63W to near 26N73W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms prevail ahead of the front and a pre-
frontal trough to about 57W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas 
follow the front. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas will weaken further as it slowly 
moves southeastward before becoming diffuse tonight. Elsewhere, 
high pressure over the central Atlantic will prevail over much of 
the western Atlantic while rough seas will continue over the 
southeastern waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to 
very rough seas are forecast behind the remnants of the 
aforementioned front through Tue night north of 27N. An expansive 
area of strong high pressure will build across the north-central 
Atlantic by the middle of the week resulting in moderate to fresh 
winds and rough seas over much of the basin. 

$$
Adams