|
|
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date
Expires:No;;204808
AXNT20 KNHC 190014
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin roughly
along 27N-28N and the Colombian low will continue to support
pulsing northeast to east winds to gale force over the waters
north of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon before becoming confined to
south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas, in the 12 to 14 ft range,
will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (Invest AL91): Satellite
images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is
located over the eastern Gulf of America. Within this area of broad
low pressure, a 1015 mb low is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near
27N84.5W. Presently, winds are light. Satellite imagery shows
disorganized moderate to isolated strong convection from 26N to 28N
between 85W and 88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are elsewhere from 23N to 29N east of 90W. This activity may produce
gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should
exercise caution across this area. Gradual development of this
system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few
days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. This system has a medium chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane
Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from
03N to 20N moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are
near axis from 04N to 10N and from 15N to 20N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south
of 18N to inland South America. It is moving westward around
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between
52W and 58W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and
continues southwestward to 16N23W and to 07N42W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 07N45W and to 07N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is south of the trough from 09N to 13N
between 19W-24W. A 1012 low is near 12N20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad
low pressure area over the eastern section of the Gulf that has a
medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours.
Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high center that is located south-southwest of
Louisiana continues to basically control the wind regime throughout
the basin generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds. Slight to
moderate seas pretty much prevail.
For the forecast, the low pressure will slowly move northward
or north-northwestward during the next few days bringing heavy
rain to the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern
Georgia. There is a medium chance of tropical formation with this
system through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas through early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Winds are expected to peak to gale force
tonight.
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure to its south is generally sustaining
strong to near gale-force trades over the central Caribbean, with
the strongest winds of near gale force noted offshore Colombia
per latest satellite scatterometer data passes. Latest satellite
altimeter data passes indicate rough to very rough seas to 14 ft
over these same waters. Meanwhile, the latest satellite
scatterometer data passes show mostly fresh trades south of about
18N and east of 82W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over these waters. Light
to gentle trades along with slight to moderate seas are present
elsewhere.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southeastern
part of the basin, and also from 10N to 14N west of 82W to
inland Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge axis oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low
will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of
Colombia early tonight. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each this
evening and on Sun evening in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 28N35W. Another
weak trough is from 31N37W to 26N40W. Isolated weak showers are
seen north of 25N between 30W and 50W. Otherwise, broad high
pressure, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N56W,
covers the central Atlantic and reaches westward to near 76W. The
related gradient is generally allowing for moderate to fresh
trades south of about 25N and west of 46W, and from 15N to 24N
east of 35W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over these waters, except for
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 20N between 54W and the
Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are
north of 20N and east of 20W to along the coast of Africa.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Latest satellite scatterometer
data passes reveal south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt south
of the monsoon trough, and east to southeast winds of 10 to 15
kt south of the ITCZ. Seas are mostly 4 to 6 ft over these
waters. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western periphery of the
Atlantic high pressure will gradually weaken and drift northward
through the rest of the weekend as a broad surface trough forms
E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail south of 24N, with gentle
winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the
evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage.
$$
Aguirre
|
