Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 232301
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite images indicate that 
showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
associated with an area of low pressure located about 400 miles 
southeast of Bermuda. Further development of the low is possible,
and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression 
or storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward 
and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system 
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 
hours and 7 days. A band-like of moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted E of the low center from 20N to 30N between
51W and 56W.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 35W south of 19N, moving quickly
westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 04N to 13N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 54W south of 20N, moving westward
at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern
portion of the wave axis. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift
associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 67W south of 20N extending from western Puerto Rico to 
north-central Venezuela, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt.
the wave is enhancing some convective activity over parts of
Puerto Rico and northern Venezuela. 

Another tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
along 87W, moving westward at around 10 kt. The wave appears to 
support some convective activity over parts of Nicaragua, 
Honduras and Costa Rica.

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west 
coast of Africa on Monday, and an area of low pressure could form
in association with the wave early this week. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter 
portions of the week while the system moves generally westward at
15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. In
fact, a cluster of moderate to strong convection, possibly associated
with the next tropical wave, is about to emerge off the west coast
of Africa.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 12N16W and continues westward to 12N30W, then SW to
07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to near Trinidad and Tobago.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between
40W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center 
located near 26N92W, is generally allowing for anticyclonic 
light to gentle winds across the basin. Slight seas are present 
throughout the Gulf waters per buoy observations and altimeter 
data. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are 
active over the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the Mexican coast 
between Veracruz and Tampico where a surface trough is analyzed. 
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are also present 
over the NE Gulf, and over most of Florida. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over central 
Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge building 
westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to 
locally moderate winds and slight seas through the week. A surface
trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please,
see the Tropical Wave section above for more details.

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the 
south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these 
trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere,
except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, 
where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are 
present. Convection has flared-up over the Greater Antilles due
to daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope
lifting. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
northern Colombia.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high
pressure and low pressure in northern South America will continue 
to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over 
the south- central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light
to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW basin. Winds will pulse
at times through the week following passages of a series of relatively
weak tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low 
pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A trough is analyzed E of Florida and runs from 31N76W to 25N80W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted N of 
25N W of 74W in association with this trough. A 1019 mb high 
pressure situated near 28N70W dominates the remainder of the SW N
Atlantic, including the Bahamas and W of 60W. A stationary front
crosses between the Madeira and the Canary Islands. A few 
showers are along the frontal boundary. Rough seas are found 
north of the front. A ridge dominates much of the area between 
30W and 60W, with a 1028 high pressure located north of area near
35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 20N north
of the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde Islands and 42W, 
and in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95. 
Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. 
Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across
the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low (AL95) is 
forecast to move northward and out of the forecast region tonight
into Mon. Increasing winds and seas are possible tonight over 
the far NE waters, with conditions then improving Mon. Elsewhere,
high pressure will maintain mainly gentle winds N of 23N through
the period, with moderate to fresh trades to the south, with 
slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of 
tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters this 
week. 

$$
GR