Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;412722
AXNT20 KNHC 312304
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Aug 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave was added to the surface
analysis near 20W from 04N to 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 13N between 
16W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 05N to 10N between 42W and 48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 12N to 16N between 62W and 68W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Western Sahara near 23N15W and dives southward to a 1009 mb low
pres near 15N21W and then continues southwestward to 07N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 14N to 17N between
55W and 60W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends into the 
Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
locally moderate seas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-
level trough north of the area is producing a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, mainly along the
coast, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula
nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend and into next
week as an upper-level trough drops southward toward the Gulf
states as a very moist and unstable airmass prevails over
region. In addition, a cold front will move across the southern 
U.S. Sat night through Sun night, with fresh southwest winds 
developing ahead of it over the northern portion of the NE Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin forces fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas across 
much of the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest 
seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly 
breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail, 
except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, very rough seas offshore of Colombia left 
behind the recent gale winds will slowly subside through Sat. 
Elsewhere across the central Caribbean, fresh to strong trades 
will begin to diminish in coverage beginning and through the 
weekend. Fresh trades elsewhere south S of about 18N will also 
diminish in coverage through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then to fresh speeds 
for the remainder of the period. A tropical wave, currently over 
the eastern Caribbean near 66W, is accompanied increasing showers 
and thunderstorms along with gusty winds. The wave will quickly 
move through the rest of the eastern Caribbean tonight and Sun 
morning, and across the remainder of the basin through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active north of 24N and
west of 65W, along a deep layer trough reaching from 31N75W to 
South Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are evident within 120 nm
east of this feature, with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, the remainder 
of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 
mb high pressure area centered near 32N52W. This pattern is 
supporting mostly moderate NE to E winds and 4-6 ft seas across
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will persist along 28N 
into next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal 
boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support 
fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 65W through the weekend. 
Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at 
night through the period. 

$$
Christensen