Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 131744
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Mar 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 05N19W. 
Farther south, the ITCZ extends from 03N20W to W to 01S33W to the
coast of Brazil near 02.5S43W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted S of 06N and E of 22W, and also S of 02N between 31W and
39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is analyzed from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas at 4 to
6 ft are noted at the Bay of Campeche and the northeastern Gulf. 
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front extends from the Straits
of Florida to inland the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong N 
to NE winds and rough seas are expected behind the front. The 
front will stall and lift back to the N as a warm front on Sat as 
high pressure over the region begins to shift eastward. A strong 
cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf late Sun night, 
quickly reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as 
it moves into the northwestern Caribbean by late Tue. Strong to 
near gale- force N winds will follow the front along with seas 
rapidly becoming rough. Gale force winds will be possible in the 
NW Gulf, and offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night
and Mon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build 
across the region into midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weaker pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the 
Colombian low supports fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds 
and seas at 5 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades
and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the central and eastern 
basin. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere in the
SW and NW Caribbean, where seas are 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central 
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia 
will support pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central 
basin through the morning hours. The high pressure will shift 
eastward through tonight, leading to fresh to strong winds 
becoming confined to the south-central Caribbean S of 13N during 
that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area-wide as 
the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will build across the
Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to 
strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N 
Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front continues to move E across the W Atlantic, analyzed 
from 31N69W through a 1015 mb low pres near 26N78W to the Florida
Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and
within 150 nm of the front. Strong to near-gale NW to N winds are
in its wake, mainly N of 27N and W of 72W. Rough seas will 
prevail with these winds. To the SE, a surface trough is analyzed 
along 59W from 21N to 30N, and is supporting the development of 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the trough axis 
out to about 50W. Elsewhere, ridging from the 1034 mb Azores high 
expands across much of the basin, supporting fresh to strong 
trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the Atlantic E of 55W. 
Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front extends from
near 31N69W to low pressure near 26N78W 1015 mb and to the 
Straits of Florida. This front will become stationary from near 
31N68W to 28N74W and to S Florida this afternoon and dissipate 
Sat. Atlantic high pressure will build west-southwestward toward 
the Bahamas through the weekend before it will retreat eastward 
early next week in response to the next cold front. This front 
will move off the U.S. southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow 
down and stall from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to 
central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and 
rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting Sun 
afternoon ahead of the front. These conditions will shift eastward
to the north- central waters by late Tue. Fresh to strong 
northwest to north winds will follow the front. To the S, rough 
seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of 
the Bahamas early next week. 

$$
Adams