Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;696856
AXNT20 KNHC 300514
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 16N17W, and 
continues southwestward to 03N32W. The ITCZ then continues from 
03N32W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
200 nm on either side of the boundaries. 


GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A 1027 mb high pressure extends a ridge from offshore the Mid- 
Atlantic states southwestward into the northern Gulf. Mostly dry 
and stable conditions remain in place over the basin. Moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds prevail across most of the Gulf. The
exception is over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where the diurnal
thermal trough is exiting the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing strong winds
in the area. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except less than
3 ft NE portions, and up to 6 ft in the Florida Current north of 
Cuba.
 
For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the basin will 
maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the basin 
for the next few days. E winds will pulse to strong north of the 
Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche nightly through Thu
night in association with a diurnal trough. Additionally, E winds
will pulse to strong over the Florida Straits tonight and 
tomorrow night. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri into the 
weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the NE Gulf 
Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean,
S of 11.5N between the coasts of Colombia and southern Nicaragua,
and in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered
passing showers dot the waters of the central and eastern 
Caribbean to the north of 14N. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are
occurring across much of the central, SW and NW Caribbean, where 
seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are found offshore of
NW Colombia to eastern Panama where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds 
across the E Caribbean are gentle to moderate with seas around 3 
ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the basin combined 
with the Colombian Low will support pulsing fresh to strong trades
at night over the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu 
night. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions should prevail over the 
forecast waters through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N54W to 24N76W. Scattered 
showers are along the northern portion of the front. A 1027 mb 
high behind the front is offshore of Cape Hatteras, promoting 
fresh N to NE winds behind the front and into the Bahamas and 
well offshore of NE Florida. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in N swell except 
4 to 5 ft offshore of NE Florida. A persistent trough resides east
of the front, from 27N56W to 20N66W. Light to gentle winds are 
generally on either side of the trough. Scattered showers are to 
the east of the front/trough, N of 20N and between 48W and 56W. 
This activity is supported by convergent surface winds occurring 
ahead of a broad upper-level trough across the western Atlantic. 
Farther east, a cold front is moving across NW Africa and extends
from 31N10W to 24N15W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
occurring ahead of the front. A 1029 mb high is centered over the
eastern Atlantic between the two frontal systems, near 35N34W. 
The pressure gradient between the high and the eastern front is 
producing an area of fresh to strong N to NE winds from 19N to 
26N E of 40W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft in N swell. Another area 
of fresh to strong NE winds prevails N of 30N and E of 26W, with 
seas of 10 to 12 ft. Across the Atlantic waters S of 19N, the 
associated ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
between 25W and 55W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually weaken 
through Thu and dissipate afterward. High pressure behind the 
front will shift eastward through Fri. Fresh northeast to east 
winds currently behind the front should continue through Thu, then
to the south of 28N west of 55W through late Thu before 
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds for the rest of the 
forecast period. Remnants of the front that should develop into a 
trough northeast of the Leeward Islands will force fresh northeast
winds north of 27N and east of 65W from Fri morning into the 
weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off the U.S. 
southeastern coast late Sat night into Sun.

$$
ERA