Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 201743
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then
runs southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from 
07N21W across 06N35W to 09N52W. Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon 
trough and part of the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between the Sierra 
Leone/Liberia coast and 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen near and up to 120 nm north of the rest of the ITCZ.

Enhanced by an upper-level trough, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa
Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the central Gulf.
Otherwise, a surface ridge related to a 1022 mb high over the
Florida Panhandle continues to dominate the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf.
Moderate to fresh SSE winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present off
the southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ESE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse 
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche 
each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough develops 
each day and moves westward. Elsewhere in the Gulf, moderate to 
occasionally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are 
expected through Fri as ridging prevails over the southeastern 
United States. Looking ahead, fresh SE winds will develop in the 
northwestern Gulf Sun into next week as a low pressure system 
moves through the southern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers near and
south of Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are coupling with
divergent flow aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Trinidad and Tobago, and near the southern
Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and seas at 5 to 9 ft are found across the western
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to 
E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted in the central and eastern 
basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over 
the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south- 
central basin and high pressure prevails north of the region. 
Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected offshore 
of northern Colombia each night and morning from Sat into next 
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1016 mb low near
33N54W across 31N56W to 28N68W. A surface trough extends southward
from this low across 31N54W to 21N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident near and up to 150 nm north of the front,
and near and up to 175 nm east of the trough. A surface trough is
bringing similar convection near the southeast Bahamas, and Turks
and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. 

Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft
are found north of 20N between 55W and the Florida/southern
Georgia coast. To the east, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and
seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For
the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate ESE to E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are
found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle
with locally moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will 
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and 
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the 
north and low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are expected 
north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern 
Florida, by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast of the 
U.S. The front is slated to enter the Atlantic waters east of
Florida on Sun, leading to moderate N to NE winds and building 
seas in the wake of the front.

$$

Chan