Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;991579
AXNT20 KNHC 111020
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 05N to 17N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 13N between 23W and 31W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is along 51W from 06N to 18N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N 
to 15N between 50W and 55W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W from 13N to 23N, moving 
west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W S of 20N, moving west at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection are noted from 10N to
17N and W of 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
southwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N29W to 12N49W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N53W to 12N61W. Aside from the convection 
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are
noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High near 29N71W westward
across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, 
and slight seas prevail across the Gulf waters. Typical moderate 
to fresh NE winds are occurring along the N and W coastal waters 
of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to 
fresh easterly winds are blowing through the Straits of Florida, 
producing seas to 4 ft. A low level trough continues to drift 
westward across the east central Gulf and is yielding a small 
cluster of moderate convection well offshore of the mouth of the 
Mississippi River. Afternoon convection across central Florida has
shifted westward over the waters SW of the entrance to Tampa Bay,
and is quickly weakening.
 
For the forecast, the current ridge surface ridge will dominate 
the general wind flow pattern across basin through Sat night. 
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the basin, 
with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and 
west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each 
evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the 
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate 
seas are expected through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1021 mb Bermuda High near 29N68W 
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is supporting fresh to strong winds, 
and moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean S of 17.5N 
between 67W and 79W. Scatterometer data depict winds near gale- 
force off the northern coast of Colombia, where seas are estimated
at around 10 ft. Fresh NE winds prevail through the Windward 
Passage and across the Gulf of Honduras, while moderate to fresh 
trade winds prevail across the NE Caribbean to the Mona Passage in
advance of an approaching tropical wave. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across SE and
NW portions. Ahead of the tropical wave along 80W scattered 
moderate convection is noted between the Cayman Islands and the 
east coast of the Yucatan, across the Gulf of Honduras, and along 
most of the coast of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support 
fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin 
through Wed night. The ridge will gradually shift southward to 
near 26N by Thu allowing for the trades to significantly expand in
coverage to cover the eastern portion of the basin into early 
Sat. Winds are expected to reach near-gale force offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night, except Wed night. Winds 
will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at
night in the the Windward Passage through the forecast period. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a
1021 mb Bermuda High centered near 29N68W, and a 1022 mb high 
centered near 27N50W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail 
over the waters N of 24N and west of 30W, with slight to moderate 
seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 24N and west 
of 30W, and moderate seas to 6 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds 
continues from the Canary Islands to 19N to the east of 25W, where
seas are 5 to 8 ft. Saharan Air dominates most of the basin N of 
15N from Africa through the southern Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current Atlantic will shift 
southward to along 28N today and to near 26N by Thu and change 
little into Sat. The gradient will tighten over the southern 
portion leading to an increase of the trades from the Bahamas 
eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the 
approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to 
strong speeds each night. Of note, an area of low pressure is 
located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more 
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a 
tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of 
this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward 
across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for 
tropical formation of this system within the next 7 days. 

$$
ERA