Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 270402
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of 
11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within
60 nm on either side of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 74W south of 
15N to inland South America, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave portion that
remains over South America.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa 
near 17N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N25W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 02N45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergent flow aloft attributed to a deep upper-level trough,
combined with abundant tropical moisture pulled northward from 
the Caribbean, results in numerous showers and thunderstorms 
south of 28N and E of 91W. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail 
across the basin, with moderate seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sustain moderate to  
fresh SE to S winds through the weekend. The exception will be 
evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan through Thu
night. The upper-level trough across the central Gulf should 
continue to couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce 
scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central 
and eastern Gulf through Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of 
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and
locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with 
the latest forecast. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction between strong high pressure over the central 
Atlantic and lower pressure to its south related to low pressure 
over northern S America has created a tight pressure gradient over
the central part of the basin. This is inducing strong to near-
gale trade winds along with rough seas across the central 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas 
are over the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Long-period E
swell is creating rough seas in the Atlantic water passages of 
the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

The southeastern periphery of a well pronounced upper-level 
trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over 
the Yucatan Channel and waters adjacent to the northeast portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba. Similar 
activity is inland over some sections of Cuba, and over the 
southwestern Caribbean S of 14N and W of 78W. This activity 
extends to inland Central America. 

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central 
Caribbean with rough seas through Thu. These winds are expected to
pulse to near-gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during 
night-time and morning hours through Thu morning. Trades in the 
Gulf of Honduras and just north of Jamaica will reach fresh to 
strong each evening through the same period. By Fri night, most of
the basin should experience moderate with locally fresh winds and
moderate seas, except the south-central basin in which fresh to 
strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is analyzed from near 31N28W southwestward to 
28N30W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 25N37W. To
the W of the front, a 1023 mb low pres is analyzed near 26N55W. 
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad and 
strong area of high pressure centered over the central Atlantic. 
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively 
lower pressure in the deep tropics is sustaining fresh to strong E
to SE winds and rough seas south S of 25N between 67W-74W. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh easterly winds along with seas of about 6-8 ft 
are south of 20N and west of 30W, and moderate or weaker winds and
moderate are over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate
to rough seas are will prevail south of 25N and west of 68W 
through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as the Atlantic high
pressure shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. 
The high will weaken on Wed night, allowing winds and seas to 
diminish from east to west. A weakening stationary front from 
25N35W to 24N41W will dissipate tonight. In the longer term, two 
cold fronts passing across the north Atlantic might cause 
increasing winds and seas north of 28N and east of 70W from Thu 
night through Fri, and again from Sat night through Sun.

$$
ERA