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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221033
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.4N 88.3W at 22/0900 UTC
or about about 45 nm ENE of the mouth of the Mississippi River and
140 nm west-southwest of Panama City Florida, moving W at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows
that the Bertha remains a heavily sheared system, with its low-
level center clearly exposed to the north of its deep convective
activity that consists of numerous moderate to strong convection
from 26N to 28N between 84W and 88W, and from 25N to 29N between
88W and 92W. Bertha is forecast to continue its current motion
through through Fri with a little acceleration. On the forecast
track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast
during the next couple of days. Bertha is expected to produce
total rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher
totals to 6 inches through Thursday along the central to the
western Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern Texas. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban
areas. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde
Islands with its axis along 33W from 09N to 19W, moving westward
around 20 kt. Dry air surrounds this wave. Only isolated showers
are seen near the southern part of the wave between 34W and 35W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from 08N
to 24N moving westward near 15 kt. An area of moderate convection
is present from 21N to 24N between 51W and 57W. Otherwise, a
few showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the
southern part of the wave from 08N to 10N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N25W and to 08N38W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Guyana near
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the
trough between 35W-38W. Similar activity is from 05N to 09N
between 29W-34W, and just offshore the coast of Africa from
14N to 18N between 17W-19W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Bertha located about 45 nm ENE of the mouth of
the Mississippi River.
Aside from conditions related to Bertha, moderate or weaker winds
are noted W of 90W and over the southeastern Gulf waters under a
weak ridge.
For the forecast, Bertha will begin top gradually weaken as it
moves inland to near 29.4N 89.4W this afternoon, inland to 29.3N
91.4W late tonight, to near 29.3N 93.9W Thu afternoon, then weaken
to a remnant low near 29.5N 96.3W late Thu night and dissipate
Fri afternoon. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading
westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days.
In the wake of Bertha, weak high pressure centered over the south-
central Gulf will be replaced by ridging associated to a new high
center that forms over the NE Gulf providing for a light to
gentle anticyclonic wind flow pattern across the basin, except for
pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and
near NE Mexico and the Texas coast. These conditions are expected
through the weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trade
winds over most of the central and SW Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage, and near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. Gentle
to moderate winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Buoy 42058
located near 14N76W continues to report seas of 8 to 9 ft. For
the remainder of the basin, winds are moderate or weaker along
with slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough
seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Windward
Passage will diminish this morning, and may briefly pulse back up
tonight. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras from
this afternoon into tonight. Moderate or weaker winds with slight
to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from near 29N65W to 24N66W and to the
Mona Passage. A large area of increasing numerous moderate
convection is seen from 22N to 29N between 61W and 71W, and also
from 24N to 28N between 47W and 57W. Overnight satellite scatterometer
data confirmed the presence of this trough and indicated fresh to
locally strong winds on either side of the trough north of about
23N. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region supporting mainly gentle to moderate
winds, with the exception of fresh to strong north to northeast
winds near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh northeast
winds north of the tropical wave near 35W, and fresh to strong
northeast winds between Haiti and eastern Cuba, including in
the Windward Passage. Seas are generally of moderate state, with
locally rough seas east of about 35W as noted in overnight
satellite altimeter data passes.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will
move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to near 75W
by Thu morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany
the trough. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected
on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to
the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or
weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere E of
the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N E of about 77W where
mostly fresh trades are expected into Sun.
$$
Aguirre
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