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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;491656
AXNT20 KNHC 020957
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the wave axis.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 73.5W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring near the Windward Passage and over the waters between
Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti as well as in the lee of Cuba.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and dives
southwestward to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 10N51W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ, as well as
from 07N to 10N between 30W and 37W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the eastern Gulf. A 1015 mb surface
high pressure is centered near 25N85W. This pattern is supporting
fresh to locally strong W to SW winds and 3-6 ft seas off the
northern Gulf coast, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds and
1-3 ft seas elsewhere.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in
control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle
to moderate winds for the next several days. The exceptions will
be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan
peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern
Gulf, where an inland cold front will induce moderate to fresh W
to SW winds through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue over much of the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W into
the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front
approach the Gulf coast.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over Costa Rica,
Panama, and southern Nicaragua. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient
between the subtropical ridge situated in the central Atlantic and
lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong E
winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. Winds are near
gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela, confirmed by scatterometer
data from earlier this evening. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, an enhanced pressure gradient across the
Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin
through much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave,
currently over the central Caribbean near 73W, is accompanied by
scattered moderate convection near the Windward Passage and the
nearby waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola as well as in
the lee of Cuba. The wave will continue quickly moving westward
across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs
result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much
of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the
subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high
pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of
the basin. Fresh to strong trades continue pulsing along the
northern coast of Hispaniola. In the waters offshore the SE US
coast, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring in advance of a cold
front currently inland.
For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending
from the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will change
little through Tue, then lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the
forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds
ahead of the front, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to
strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through
the period.
$$
Adams
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