Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;110838
AXNT20 KNHC 211414
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 19W/20W 
based on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show an ill-
defined mid- level cyclonic circulation near 12N19W. Increasing 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the wave from 09N to
12N between 19W and 21W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W south of
20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of 
20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W south of 20N. It 
is moving westward at about 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are active
near 15N76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues 
southwestward to 14N20W, then to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from
11N55W to 11N63W. Outside of convection associated with tropical 
wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
60 nm south of the trough between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 10N to 12N between 31W and 38W, and from 09N to
12N between 45W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A mid to upper-level trough stretches from Georgia southward along
the Florida peninsula. Associated showers and thunderstorms are
active over the north-central Gulf and off far southwest Florida
along a surface trough. Another surface trough is analyzed over
the far southwest Gulf off Veracruz. A 1018 mb high pressure area
is centered over the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting
moderate SE winds over the southwest where seas are 3-5 ft. Light
to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail through early next week. A weak
pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A
surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These
winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as
the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection 
across the basin.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of 
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting 
fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin, with 
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW 
basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central 
portion and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to sustain fresh to 
strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central 
Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and 
eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. A 
tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic and into the 
far eastern Caribbean early next week enhancing the trade wind 
flow across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1018 mb low is about 480 nm east-southeast of Bermuda near
30N56W, connected by a trough to another low pressure area farther
to the northeast. A second trough is southeast of the first,
extending from 30N49W to 26N65W. Scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms are active near these features under diffluent
flow aloft between an upper low to the southeast and an upper
ridge to the northwest. Farther west, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active north of 25N east of an upper trough
extending across the Florida peninsula. Elsewhere west of 55W, the
subtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure
between Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 26N68W. Fresh E to SE
winds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south of
the ridge, supporting 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere west of 55W, the 
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 2-4 ft.
Farther east, 1028 mb high pressure is centered over southwest of
the Azores, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7 ft
seas, except fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas off the 
coast of Mauritania and Senegal.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will 
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are 
expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola 
through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong 
speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the 
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical 
wave is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area 
early next week enhancing the trades some. 

$$
Christensen