Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 070532
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Mar 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to 
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will 
pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night.
A Metop-B ASCAT pass from 0118 UTC confirmed gale-force winds 
near the NW coast of Colombia. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected 
with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
near 09N13W, then extends southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N17W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 
01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 05N 
between 15W and 38W, and also S of 04N and W of 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 
moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, including the 
Straits of Florida. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. A few
showers are developing over the far western Gulf.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward 
from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek next
week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure 
over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds 
basin-wide, pusling to between fresh and strong near the northern 
Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker 
in the NE Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean,
with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. The most recent scatterometer data provide observations
of fresh to strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, 
in the Gulf of Honduras, and also through the Windward Passage. 
Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range in the central to SW Caribbean. 
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere 
across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High 
and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades 
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds 
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during 
the overnight hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E 
winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras 
through Sun night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Large 
easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will 
keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A surface trough analyzed over the Lesser Antilles is helping to
generate scattered showers between the northern end of the trough
axis and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Otherwise, a ridge 
dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1031 mb high 
pressure located E of the Azores, and a 1029 mb high pressure 
situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. Under the influence of this 
ridge, strong to near-gale- force NE winds and very rough seas are
observed N of 25N and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands, 
with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt between the Canary Islands
and the coast of Morocco. Fresh to locally strong trades are 
blowing S of 25N and E of 70W along the southern periphery of the 
ridge. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast 
Bahamas through Mon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected 
elsewhere across the region. 

$$
Adams