Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191050
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Dec 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: 

Low pressure of 1014 mb is located near 30N55W with a weakening 
cold front extending southwestward through 24N56W. NE gales are 
occurring within 90 nm in the NW semicircle, while strong strong
to near gale force winda are occurring in the remainder vicinity
of the low. Seas of 12 to 17 ft (3.5 to 5.0 m) are found north of
27N between 53W and 59W. Very rough seas are expected across the 
W semicircle of the low center through this afternoon, before the
low begins to slowly weaken and gradually exits the forecast area
Sat morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information
this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near
07N11W and extends to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues westward from 
06N15W to 01N32W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is occurring along and within 150 nm of these features
between 15W and 36W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the 
offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface high pressure is starting to build over the far NW Gulf in
the wake of a cold front that this morning extends from the
Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the front is currently supporting fresh to strong
northerly winds behind the front while seas remain moderate to 6
ft. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weakers and seas are
slight. Otherwise, isolated showers preceed the front, affecting
the SE and SW basin.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the 
cold front moving across the northern Gulf waters this morning. 
The front is forecast to move out of the basin during the 
afternoon today and winds will diminish to moderate or weaker 
speeds. Afterward, a ridge will build, dominating the Gulf waters 
this upcoming weekend into early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trade wind regime prevails across the Caribbean with fresh to 
strong trades occurring offshore NW Colombia, along with seas of 
6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the
central and eastern basin. The remainder of the Caribbean is 
seeing moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean 
through most of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
winds are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds
over the NW Caribbean. Large E swell will persist over the 
tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into 
the eastern part of the basin through Fri night. High pressure 
will strengthen north of the basin this upcoming weekend into 
early next week to bring fresh to strong winds across the central 
Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in 
the western and central Atlantic.

Low pressure of 1014 mb is located near 30N55W with a weakening 
cold front extending southwestward through 24N56W followed by a
shear line that continues to 22N65W to the southern Bahamas
offshore waters. Scattered heavy showers are in the vicinity of
the low and ahead of the cold front to 49W. Scattered showers are
also across the northern Bahamas and offshore waters of central
and NE Florida ahead of the cold front that is moving across the
Gulf of America. Aside from the shower activity, a tight pressure
gradient support fresh to strong southerlies and rough seas to 10
ft N of 28N to near 71W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic waters. Farther east, a cold front
extends from 30N17W to 30N35W with moderate to fresh winds and
rough seas to 11 ft. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across 
much of the remainder basin with fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds S of 24N between the coast of W Africa and 50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, ongoing strong gale-force winds within
90 nm NW semicircle of the aforementioned low center and rough 
seas associated with this system are expected to continue through 
early this afternoon. The low will gradually weaken as it moves 
slowly E-NE across the far NE zones and exit the forecast area Sat
morning. The next cold front will move into the NW waters this 
afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat 
morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas Sat 
evening. Another cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters
Sun night, and reach from 31N60W to central Florida by Mon 
evening, and from 29N55W to SE Florida Tue morning while 
dissipating. 

$$
Ramos