Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 091711
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jul 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into the weekend. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- 
force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela Fri 
night and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft
off Colombia Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W south of 
15N moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is 
occurring near the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W south of 18N 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are occurring from the Mona Passage south to about 14N between 64W
and 70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 76W from 19N
southward. It is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Numerous strong
and large convective clusters have recently formed over Colombia
and the offshore waters S of 11N and E of 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N24W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N37W. It resumes at 08N42W 
to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 08N and W of 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing along a surface
trough running from the Bay of Campeche to the W Gulf. Upper 
level troughing N of the region as well as convergent surface 
winds in the E Gulf also support widely scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms across portions of the Gulf N of 24N 
between 85W and 90W. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate or 
weaker E to SE winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the 
Atlantic across central Florida and over the Gulf will change 
little through Sat, then shift slightly southeastward afterward. 
The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds south of 26N east of 94W, and light to gentle 
southeast to south-southwest winds north of 26N into the weekend. 
Light and variable winds are south of 26N west of 94W. These winds
will gentle to moderate east to southeast winds tonight and 
change little into next week. The exception will be occasional 
fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan 
peninsula at night. A mid-level trough combined with a very moist 
and unstable environment is generating scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are elsewhere south of about 28N. This activity is 
expected to persist into tonight as it lifts north. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
later this week and weekend.

The pressure gradient between ridging over the Atlantic and lower
pressures over northern South America continues to support fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across much of the central to SW
Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage. An altimeter 
pass from early this morning confirmed seas of 13-15 ft occurring 
offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
prevail in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle 
to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. 
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing across the SW Caribbean, 
enhanced by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon 
trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also 
occurring over the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will 
support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for 
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force Fri night, 
and Sat night off Colombia. Gale-force winds are also expected in 
the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the 
Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late 
afternoons and evenings through early next week. A tropical wave 
in the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms. This activity will continue near the 
tropical wave as it moves rapidly across the central and western 
Caribbean the next couple of days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front segment runs along 30/31N between 34W and
44W. No notable convection or changes in marine conditions are
occurring. Ridging prevails across much of the tropical and
subtropical Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas prevailing across areas S of 22N and W of 35W. Locally
strong trades are seen along the northern coast of Hispaniola and
into the Windward Passage, as well as from 02N to 08N between 40W
and the Lesser Antilles. Another area of fresh to strong winds 
from the NE is occurring N of 22N and E of 35W between a stronger 
pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower 
pressures over Africa. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 
ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will
change little through the period. The weather pattern will 
generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light
to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate 
to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night. 
Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at 
night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through early next week. 

$$
Adams