Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221629
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1629 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has it axis along 16.5W, south 
of 17N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 11.5N and 
east of 25.5W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, 
south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 07N to 10N and between 
35.5W and 40.5W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of
16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
observed near this tropical wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W, south 
of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is
observed near the tropical wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N17W and continues 
southwestward to 05N30W and to 04N46.5W. Please read the Tropical
Waves section for information about convection near the area.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores extends a
ridge to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin this 
week. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will pulse off the 
Yucatan peninsula nightly during the first half of the week. A 
moderate pressure gradient will maintain mostly fresh southerly 
winds over the western and central Gulf through late tonight 
before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to 
moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with 
slight seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf through the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The aforementioned subtropical ridge supports fresh to strong
easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the 
Caribbean, especially south of 18N. The strongest winds and 
highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present in the SW 
Caribbean in association to the end of the Eastern Pacific 
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will prevail 
north of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade 
winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through 
the forecast period. The trade winds are expected to increase to 
near gale across the central portion of the basin over a large 
area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in 
the Gulf of Venezuela tonight through Tue night. Seas are expected
to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Pulsing fresh to 
strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf 
of Honduras nightly. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over 
much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores 
dominates the tropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to 
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 
23N and west of 35W. Farther east, fresh to strong N-NE winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are found from 14N to 27N and east of 35W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure 
will dominate the region through the forecast period. Winds will 
pulse nightly fresh to locally strong speeds off northern 
Hispaniola and seas may build up to 8 ft. Moderate or lighter 
winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 

$$
KRV