Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 040941
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W from 05N to 16N, 
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 14N between 15W and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 05N to 19N,
moving west at around 10 kt. There is no convection in association
with this wave at this time. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W, from
Haiti to Colombia, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the Windward Passage. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues 
southwestward to 10N32W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W 
to 08N59W. Convection in the vicinity is primarily associated with
the eastern Atlantic tropical wave and is described in the above
section.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 24N87W, supporting light
to gentle winds across most of the basin. Convection has
dissipated in association with a surface trough in the Bay of 
Campeche, but moderate E to SE winds continue E of the boundary in
the eastern Bay. Seas are slight to 3 ft basin-wide. 
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting
gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses
of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night,
locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb, centered near 
34N57W, and lower pressure over southern Caribbean due to the 
passage of a tropical wave and a low center over NW Colombia is 
supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin. 
Seas in this region are rough to 10 ft. Over the E and NW basin, 
moderate to fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. Broad
lift associated with an upper level trough and deep tropical 
moisture are aiding in the development of scattered moderate
convection on the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters and the 
Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central 
basin into the weekend, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally 
strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward 
Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will
prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft supports scattered moderate convection over the 
SW N Atlantic, including the Florida seaboard, Great Bahama Bank, 
and Bahamas offshore waters W of 73W. Scattered moderate
convection has also developed farther east from 24N to 27N between
50W and 60W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge.

Fresh SW winds are offshore northern Florida to the SE of a
stalled front. Fresh trades are present offshore Hispaniola, and
in a zone from 22N to 28N between 50W and 65W. In the far NE 
Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are 
evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary 
Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds offshore NE Florida
will diminish today as high pressure builds west toward the 
region. A mid- and upper-level trough along the SE U.S. coast will
keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the 
vicinity of the Bahamas into Wed. Locally strong trades will 
continue pulsing offshore Hispaniola. A westward moving trough 
will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into mid-week, then 
approach the Bahamas by late week, bringing fresh to locally 
strong winds and locally rough seas. 

$$
Konarik