Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 061007
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1005 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 
05N35W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 02N to 11N and between 13W and 29W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from near Yankeetown, Florida to 
26N90W, then becomes a stationary front to near Veracruz, Mexico.
A few showers are noted behind the front. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail across the basin and these marine conditions will persist 
into Sun afternoon. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW 
Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin into early next week, 
leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the 
wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may develop off Veracruz 
Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into 
Wed as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cluster of showers associated with a weak surface trough are
moving into the NW Caribbean, extending from 14N to 18N and 
between 79W and 84W. Pockets of low-level moisture are also 
bringing isolated showers to the eastern and central Caribbean. 
High pressure north of the area continues to support moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas in 
the eastern and central Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central
and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere. A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in
the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles through the
forecast period. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may
approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the
area through Wed. High pressure will build in by the middle of 
next week, leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south-
central Caribbean into late next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N77W to Palm Coast, Florida. Fresh to
locally strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are
noted ahead of the front to 70W and north of 30N. Meanwhile,
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
found south of 23N and west of 55W. Elsewhere west of 55W, light
to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

A frontal trough extends from 31N47W to 24N61W and moderate to
locally strong SW winds and seas of 6-10 ft are found east of the
trough to 35W and north of 27N. A broad subtropical ridge extends
southwestward from a 1025 mb high pressure in the far eastern 
Atlantic to the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge 
and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and rough seas south of 22N and between
Africa and Lesser Antilles. In the remainder of the basin, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the winds and seas associated with
the front off NE Florida will push eastward quickly today into 
Sun. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida by
early Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Looking ahead, a 
complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move 
through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week, 
supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas 
ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. Conditions will 
improve late Tue into Wed. 

$$
Delgado