Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 291008
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jul 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the far E Atlantic with axis near 
20W, extending from 04N to 19N, and moving westward around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 
18W and 22W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 40W, 
extending from 06N to 15N, and moving westward at around 15-20 kt.
Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 65W, 
extending from 10N to 19N or from northern Venezuela to near the
Anegada Passage, and is moving westward at around 10-15 kt. No 
significant convection is depicted at the moment in association 
with this wave. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 86W, south 
of 20N and into the far eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, and is 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen S of 16N and W of 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of
Mauritania at 19N16W and continues to 08N45W. The ITCZ begins 
near 08N45W and continues to 07N57W. Other than the convection 
associated with the tropical waves as described above, scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm on either side of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed from north of Tampa Bay into the NE
Gulf, with scattered showers near the trough axis. The remainder
of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak 1013 mb high 
centered near 26N90W, which is supporting light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds from the Yucatan Channel to the high to near 
Galveston Bay, Texas. Moderate anticyclonic winds are closer to 
all coastal locations around the periphery of the high. Seas are 
mainly 1 to 3 ft, except locally higher near NE Mexico and SE 
Texas. 

For the forecast, surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula
nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf
due to the presence of a frontal boundary north of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on associated convection. Scattered thunderstorms are also occurring
nearshore western Jamaica.

The pressure gradient between relatively low pressure over South 
America and the ridge is supporting fresh to strong trades over 
the central to SW Caribbean along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Winds are 
moderate to fresh across the eastern Caribbean and remainder of 
the SW Caribbean, where seas are moderate. Gentle to moderate or 
weaker winds prevail across the remainder of basin, with slight to
moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aerial extent and strength of the trade winds
will increase from tonight into Thu as the pressure gradient 
between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low increases. By 
that time, expect fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas
across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with the 
strongest winds and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh to 
strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through
Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough reaches from north of the discussion waters
from 31N70W to 28N80W. Fresh SW winds are found north of 25N and 
east of the boundary to near 60W, along with 6-9 ft seas. Nearby 
scattered moderate convection is found east of the trough to near 
65W to the north of 27N. A 1024 mb high pressure near 30N47W and 
an associated ridge dominate the remainder of the subtropical 
Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh trades can be found north of 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ to about 22N around the high, with 
moderate to fresh return flow west of 55W and elsewhere southeast
of the frontal trough. Fresh to strong winds are near Africa to 
the Canary Islands from 17N to 27N to the east of 20W. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the 
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This, 
in combination with a frontal boundary over the W Atlantic, will 
support fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several 
days. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola 
from tonight through Sat. 

$$
ERA