Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;186985
AXNT20 KNHC 072253
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A new cold front is expected to 
enter the NW Gulf early tonight, followed by fresh to strong 
northwest to north winds and building seas. Gale-force NW to N 
winds are expected to briefly occur off Veracruz Mon afternoon 
through evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the
front stalls across the entrance to the Yucatan Channel and 
Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across the central 
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist late Wed
through Fri.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia
near 06N11W and continues SW to near extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N17W to 03N30W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 10W and 20W, and from
02N to 09N between 25N and 40W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on 
upcoming gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.

A frontal boundary persists over the northern Gulf producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh, with 
pockets of locally strong, N to NE winds are occurring north of 
this front as observed via recent scatterometer satellite data. 
Within about 90 nm SE of the front, fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are noted. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas dominate the Gulf region. 

For the forecast, the above mentioned frontal boundary will 
weaken and drift northeastward this evening. A new cold front is 
expected to enter the NW Gulf early tonight and overtake the 
current front on Mon, while sweeping southeastward across the 
basin through Tue. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW 
winds and building seas in the wake of this front. Please, see
the Special Features section for more details. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure N of the basin 
and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trades over the 
east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate E to SE winds
are noted over the western Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are 
prevalent E of 80W, with seas of 2 to 5 ft W of 80W. Scattered 
showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed over NE 
Honduras and northern Nicaragua. A narrow band of similar 
convective activity extends from northern Nicaragua to eastern 
Panama. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this 
convective activity. Elsewhere low-topped trade wind showers are 
observed on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the basin along about 
25N will support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 
moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through at 
least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Fresh to locally 
strong trade winds and persistent NE to E swell will support 
rough seas across the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser 
Antilles through next Fri. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front 
will approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across
the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed night 
before dissipating. High pressure will build across the eastern 
Gulf of America by the middle of next week, leading to strong 
winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean into late 
next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N60W to just offshore of 
the NW Bahamas, where it has become nearly stationary. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are noted on either
side of the front E of 65W. In the central Atlantic, a frontal 
trough persists, and extends from near 30N36W to 26N50W. A narrow 
band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers, is associated 
with the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is
under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure
located NW of the Canary Islands near 29N20W. Moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 
Broken to overcast mostly mid and high-level clouds are being 
steered northeastward by strong winds aloft from the central 
tropical Atlantic to W Africa. These clouds are now crossing 
south of the Cabo Verde Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas associated with the
weakening cold front will shift eastward tonight as the front 
dissipates. A complex low pressure system and strong cold front 
will move into the northwestern tropical Atlantic waters tonight 
through Mon, supporting widespread strong to near gale-force 
winds N of 27N, and building seas ahead of and behind the front 
Mon through Tue evening. The cold front will reach from near 
Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue afternoon, 
then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed as the 
low pressure shifts well NE of the area. Large N swell will move 
into the regional waters Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night.

$$
GR