Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 091654
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical
high pressure north of the Caribbean and low pressure over 
northern Colombia will lead to gale force winds pulsing tonight 
and Sun night offshore Colombia, along with very rough seas. This 
gradient will weaken some early next week as a cold front moves 
into the western Atlantic, and the pulsing gales will end Mon. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 09N 
with axis near 47W, moving west at around 10 kt. There is no deep
convection associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined inland over Africa. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N16W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed south of 10N between 16W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from near Appalachicola, Florida,
to Lake Ponchatrain. A surface trough has developed from offshore
Corpus Christi Bay southward to near Tampico, Mexico. These two
features are inducing scattered moderate convection within about
120 nm of the northern Gulf coast. Away from convection, most of
the basin has moderate or weaker SE winds, with slight to moderate
seas. 

For the forecast, scattered showers and strong thunderstorms near
the stationary front along the northern Gulf coast will 
eventually weaken Sun night as the front slowly dissipates. 
Farther south, winds will pulse to strong near the Yucatan 
Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, 
another cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters early 
Mon morning, and reach from northern Florida to the Bay of 
Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to locally strong N to 
NE winds. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected off Veracruz Mon 
night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the 
basin Tue night into Wed as the front weakens. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features for information on a Gale 
Warning offshore Colombia.

High pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in the 
deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade 
winds and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the broad subtropical ridge north of the 
Caribbean will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds with 
rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through midweek next 
week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong with 
locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in 
the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades 
are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central 
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has stalled from 31N62W near St. Augustine, Florida.
Convection associated with this feature is now confined to its
north and N of our area. For waters N of 21N, an overall weak
pressure gradient, mainly influenced by subtropical ridging from
high pressure N of the region, is leading to moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas. The exception is the far NE Atlantic,
where rough seas are present N of the Canary Islands and E of 25N.
To the S of 21N, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevail.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
weaken tonight and Sun. A cold front is expected reach a similar 
location as the stationary front Mon through Tue, followed by 
fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are 
possible near second front. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge over 
the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong winds 
off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. 

$$
Konarik