Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 092207
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A
993 mb low pressure is centered well northeast of Bermuda near 38N52W.
Earlier scatterometer satellite passes showed a broad swath of 
gale force winds across much of the western Atlantic associated 
with the low pressure, with near-gale to gale force winds 
extending into the discussion area as far south as 27N between 55W
and 65W. Concurrent Sofar buoys showed wave heights as high as 25
ft this area, combined seas in excess reaching as far south as 
20N between 55W and 75W. The area of gale force winds will lift 
north of the area overnight as the low pressure shifts 
northeastward. This will leave the area combined seas in excess of
12 ft subsiding through mid week from west to east, but not 
before reaching as far east as 30W north of 28N. Mariners are 
urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building
southeastward across the western Atlantic and toward the Greater 
Antilles early this week will tighten the pressure gradient across
the Caribbean, to produce increasing NE tradewinds. This will result
in gale force winds pulsing tonight and again Tue night offshore
of NW Colombia, mainly within about 90 nm from the coast. Seas 
will build to 9 to 11 ft in association with these gales.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W to 06N15W to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from
02N30W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 02N
to 04N east of 15W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, anchored by a
1026 mb high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf. This
pattern is maintain light to gentle breezes and slight across the
basin this afternoon.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters 
through late week, bringing a gentle to moderate mainly southerly 
flow. Locally fresh winds are expected, mainly at night, just west
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the far western waters. Slight
to moderate seas will prevail. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in effect for waters offshore Colombia.

A cold front extending from the Anegada Passage to 15N76W is
starting to dissipate. High pressure is building from the
northeast Gulf of America southeastward to 65W behind the 
front, and is acting to produce fresh to locally strong NE winds
and 5 to 8 ft seas from the south coast of the Dominican Republic
to the coastal waters of northwest Colombia. Gentle to moderate 
NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to 
strong winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the 
Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica through 
mid- week, Winds are likely to pulse to minimal gale-force tonight
and again Tue night offshore Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW to N 
swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical 
N Atlantic waters into Wed creating hazardous marine conditions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale 
warning and significant swell in the western and central 
Atlantic.

Hazardous marine conditions dominate much of the basin, as
described in the Special Features section, in association with a 
large and deep low pressure system moving northeastward across the
northwest Atlantic. A cold front extends from the northwest Azores
to the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong SW winds and 8 to
12 ft seas are noted ahead of the front, north of 27N. Farther
east, 1024 mb high pressure is centered west of the Canary Islands
near 28N22W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure
southwestward toward 18N55W. Gentle breezes are noted along the
ridge axis, with moderate to fresh trade winds farther south. 
Seas elsewhere are 5 to 7 ft primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will slide east, 
with the southern end of the front remaining in the vicinity of 
the Leeward Islands through Wed. Gale-force winds behind it, N of 
29N and E of 66W, will continue into tonight, with a broader area 
of strong W to NW winds N of 25N and E of 72W continuing. Very 
rough seas impacting waters E of 74W will only slowly subside from
W to E, decaying below 12 ft region-wide by Wed. High pressure in
the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through 
Thu, leading to mainly improving conditions. Another frontal 
boundary will reach the N waters on Thu. Fresh to strong SW winds 
and building seas are expected S of the front, over the waters N 
of 28N- 29N, Wed through Thu. 

$$
Christensen