Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 020345
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Apr 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 13N17W to 00N24W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted in the vicinity of the boundaries and E of 32W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends toward the NE 
Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate 
seas. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers over the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, surface ridge will dominate the Gulf through Sat,
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with occasional strong
north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the northwestern Gulf and 
Florida Straits. Seas are expected to be moderate during this 
period. On Sun, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf and 
then move southeastward through early next week, bringing strong 
winds and rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E trades dominate waters offshore Colombia
and in the Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh winds over
most of the rest of the basin, except for the eastern Caribbean
where gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft,
except rough seas in N swell are spilling through Atlantic
passages E of 70W. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a surface ridge 
near 30N and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat 
night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE to E 
winds along with moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, 
the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough that extends roughly along 60W from 18N to 
27N is inducing scattered moderate convection from 17N to 28N 
between 52W and 63W. In the far eastern Atlantic, a 1016 mb low 
pressure is analyzed near 26N23W. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas prevail in the vicinity of the low. A relatively tight 
pressure gradient between subtropical ridging with an axis along 
35 to 40N and lower pressure toward the Equator is inducing 
widespread fresh to strong trades between 20N and 30N, with 
associated rough seas. To the south, moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure at the north 
Atlantic will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
mainly south of 28N, including the central and southeast Bahamas 
through this weekend. Afterward, the high is going to weaken which
should allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next 
week. On Mon night and Tue, a cold front exiting the southeastern 
U.S. will cause building winds and seas off northeastern Florida. 

$$
ERA