Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 120445
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to 
near gale-force trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, 
including the Gulf of Venezuela, into early next week. Early this
afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed minimal gale- force
winds off the north coast of Colombia, where satellite altimeter 
data showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. Winds are forecast to pulse to 
gale- force off the coast of Colombia again tonight through Sun 
morning. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected with
these winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 69W
south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are depicted from 11N to 14.5N between
61.5W and the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N37W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 07N57W. Scattered convection is
depicted from 07N to 09N between 45W and 57W. Isolated convection
is depicted from 08N to 10N between 20W and 38W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward
across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly 
low level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture
into the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
noted over the central Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting 
light to gentle winds east of 88W. Gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds generally prevail west of 88W, except for moderate to fresh 
winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail 
across the basin.

For the forecast, a cold front will become stationary just N of 
the area early next week, enhancing thunderstorms across the far 
northern Gulf. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent 
lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger 
thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting 
gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will 
pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. A Gale Warning is
in effect.  

As previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over 
the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal 
gale-force offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with
these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate
the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds
in the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin 
where moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with 
embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean. For convection
information over the eastern Caribbean, please read the Tropical
Waves section above. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between 
high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern
South America supports gale-force NE winds and rough seas over 
the south central Caribbean tonight, and strong to near-gale trade
winds across the central portion of the basin through the 
weekend. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong 
each evening through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers 
and thunderstorms across the waters N of 24N between 53W and 64W.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 
broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to locally fresh 
winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for locally strong
winds north of the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades 
south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing 
strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in 
the Windward Passage. 

$$
KRV