Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 201617
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Feb 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1615 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to
near 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 02N30W to the coast 
of Brazil near the Equator along 47W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed south of 04N and between 12W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure system
centered southeast of Bermuda and lower pressures across eastern 
Mexico support moderate to fresh S to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas across the basin. The southerly wind flow in the 
western Gulf waters is lifting smoke northward from agricultural 
fires in southeastern Mexico, producing hazy skies west of 92W. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending westward from a 
1019 mb high pressure southeast of Bermuda will maintain moderate
basin to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas at the 
central and western Gulf through Sat night. Locally strong E to SE
winds will pulse north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon 
and night as a trough develops daily over the region. A strong 
cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat night and shift 
across the basin through early Mon, bringing fresh to strong 
northerly winds and rough seas. Gale-force winds and very rough 
seas are probable offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sat night 
through Sun night. Both winds and seas should gradually subside 
early next week in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the basin is  
supporting strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough 
seas in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong E to SE 
winds and moderate seas to 8 ft are found in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are 
occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and much of 
the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are basin
evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1019 mb 
Atlantic high near 27N56W and the Colombian low, will support 
fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat 
night, and south-central Caribbean through this weekend. Winds may
reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, 
with rough seas expected within and to the west of these winds. 
Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the 
rest of the Caribbean basin through Sun night. Rough seas will 
linger east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night as N swell 
progresses through the central tropical Atlantic. In the long 
term, a strong cold front will move through the Gulf of America 
this weekend and move into the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, 
reaching from western Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica 
border Tue morning. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic, west of 50W, is under the influence of a
broad subtropical ridge, centered on 1019 mb high pressure near
27N56W. This pattern is maintaining moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas across the region. A trough is analyzed 
from 31N39W to 26N54W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas 
are found ahead of the trough to 35W and north of 28N. Decaying 
NW swell is also producing rough seas in the central Atlantic 
between 25W and 50W and north of 20N. South of 20N, moderate to 
fresh trades prevail, with rough seas present west of 43W and 
moderate seas east of 43W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas are occurring east of 25N and north
of 22N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas north of 29N and east of
65W in N swell will subside from west to east through Sat. 
Elsewhere, 1019 mb high pressure located south of Bermuda will 
shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate to 
locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida through 
Sat evening. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere 
through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the 
southeastern U.S. on Sun, with strong NW winds and rapidly 
building seas behind the front through early next week. The front 
is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon 
morning, and from 31N60W to northwest Haiti Tue morning. 

$$
Nepaul