Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 232014
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues 
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 10N35W to the coast of northern South America at 
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 07N
between 11W and 26W, from 11.5N to 19N between Africa and 30W, and
from 07N to 10.5N between 43W and 58W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to offshore
SW Louisiana where it becomes stationary to the central Texas
coast. A weak ridge is noted S of the front with a 1020 mb high at
27N89W per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate 
winds dominate the basin both N and S of the front. Seas are 2 to 
locally 4 ft S of 24N and 1-3 ft elsewhere, locally to 4 ft off 
the Texas coast N of the front. Scattered showers are noted near 
and offshore the central and northern Texas coast with the front.

For the forecast, the weak stationary front will lift 
northeastward as a warm front later today as low pressure develops
near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Expect fresh southerly 
flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by 
the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high 
pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of
a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A 
stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary
early Wed while emerging out over the northwest Gulf. The cold 
front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, 
followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas 
through Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
initial frontal boundary. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the 
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern 
Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of 
the S-central Caribbean as noted in earlier scatterometer data. 
The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are offshore Colombia where 
seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the basin. 
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring near
the coast and offshore Central America from Belize southward.
Gusty winds and locally higher winds and seas are possible with 
this activity and it may linger into late tonight. Abundant 
tropical moisture in place, combined with an upper-level low 
spinning over Nicaragua supports this convection.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds and 
rough seas will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and
morning through mid week between high pressure over the western 
Atlantic and relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and
the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere, the pattern will also 
support moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas 
over the remainder of the basin through the period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1018 mb is N of the area over eastern North
Carolina with a cold front to the SE and just N of 31N reaching to
SE Georgia. S of the front, a broad ridge reaches from near 31N52W
to near the northern Bahamas. An elongated surface trough is over
the central Atlantic, reaching from N of 31N48W to 20N52W. A weak
pressure pattern is between the trough and the Greater Antilles to
Florida. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across this region,
locally moderate N of 29N and W of 70W closer to the front. Seas
are mainly 2-4 ft except locally 5 ft near the front and trough.

An upper-level trough is providing upper support for the feature.
An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms nearby. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure N of 31N and E of the
surface trough is sustaining mostly fresh northeast to east winds
N of about 28N and E of 30W, including the waters near the Canary
Islands. Seas of 8-10 ft in NE swell are over this area based on
earlier altimeter data. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across
the remainder of the basin along with 4-7 ft seas in mainly N to
NE swell.
 
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight and reach from near Bermuda to 
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the 
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by 
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina 
coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast 
to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, 
winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a 
stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast 
Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of 
Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and 
building seas through Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky