Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 291033
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends 
from E Cuba to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary,
along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture 
to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu, 
with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern 
Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+ 
inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast
of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in 
the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today. 
Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: Another cold front is expected to  
move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N 
winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from 
Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.
An associated complex area of low pressure will rapidly deepen 
Fri through Sat as it moves from the SE U.S. into the western 
Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of
the Gulf basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air 
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near 
Veracruz early Sat morning through midday Sat, and across the 
eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening. Very large seas are expected
to build behind this front Fri night through Sun, reaching 15 to
18 ft across eastern portions of the basin and into the western
Florida coastal waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 11N14.5W and continues southwestward to 04.5N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 04.5N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5S to 05N between
19W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
01.5S to 03N E of 14W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin in 48 hours.

1028 mb high pressure has drifted southeastward into the NW Gulf
tonight, centered offshore the Louisiana coast near 29N92.5W. A 
surface trough in the central Gulf to near the Yucatan coast, and
a coastal trough in the SW Gulf support some cloudiness in the 
basin, although any shower activity associated with this 
convection is very light. The pressure gradient between the high,
the central Gulf trough, and a lingering front in the NW Caribbean
is producing mostly fresh N winds across the SE Gulf and into the
NW Caribbean this morning, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in 
the Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE winds prevail across the Bay of 
Campeche to the west of the coastal trough, with seas of 4 to 5 
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh N winds across the SE Gulf will 
gradually diminish through morning, as the front in the NW
Caribbean drifts southward. High pressure over the southern 
Plains will shift east today ahead of a low pressure area moving 
into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front 
moving off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N 
winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from 
Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.
The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the 
western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves 
southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air 
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near 
Veracruz early Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat 
through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the 
basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to 
east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE 
into the northern Gulf following the front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall
even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.

A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the east coast of Cuba
to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua, where it has been drifting
southward overnight. Stratocumulus clouds and light showers cover
much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure 
gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern 
United States and Gulf of America supports fresh to strong 
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary.
Seas remain 7 to 10 ft across much of this area. In the south- 
central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured 
fresh to strong NE winds S of 13.5N to the coast of Colombia. 
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front has begun to drift 
southward across the western Caribbean, as high pressure across 
the NW Gulf of America is starting to shift eastward. Fresh to 
strong N winds will prevail across NW portions behind the front 
through this evening, and force it slowly southward, reaching E 
Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, where it will stall 
and begin to weaken this evening through Fri. An unusually strong 
cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move 
southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to
western Panama Sat evening, from eastern Hispaniola to the NW 
coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern 
Puerto Rico to NW Colombia Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force 
N winds are expected behind this front, generating very rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic front is stationary from 31N48W to 1014 mb low 
pressure near 25N67W to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered light to
moderate showers are evident along the front and E through NE of
the low. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
occurring behind the boundary and south of 27N, except seas of 9 
to 10 ft within 120 nm N of the front due to fresh winds. Moderate
to fresh SW winds and seas of 8-14 ft in NW swell are found north
of 27N and east of the front to 35W. North of the stalled front, 
a reinforcing front is moving southeast of Bermuda, with fresh to 
locally strong westerly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft 
in W-NW swell occurring north of 30N and west of 65W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb
high pressure near 27N27W that extends west-southwestward to
Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to
locally very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of
24N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are 
found in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads 
across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well 
north of the area. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are 
found north of 24N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will 
meander across this area through tonight. High pressure across 
the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and 
freshen winds behind the lingering front today and tonight, and 
nudge the front southward to near the Atlantic approach to the 
Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the 
western Atlantic waters Sat morning. Associated complex low 
pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat 
through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force 
winds covering the local waters N of 23.5N, and the central 
Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun
night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba
Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then 
begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon 
evening.

$$
Stripling