Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;057537
AXNT20 KNHC 201659
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderated convection 
is present from 06N to 14N and between 25W and 32W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south from the
Virgin Islands, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 59W and 65W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed from 11N to 14N W of 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to 
10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N49W to 10N60W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 
17N and east of 23W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Outflow from overnight convection in the southeastern U.S. has
moved southward into the far NE Gulf and is inducing scattered
moderate convection offshore the Florida Panhandle. Scattered 
moderate convection is also noted in the western Bay of Campeche, 
aided by the northern extent of an eastern Pacific tropical wave.
Otherwise, high pressure centered near 26N89W dominates. This is 
supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds through the 
basin, with slight seas. Some seas to 4 ft are ongoing in the Bay 
of Campeche.


For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast 
period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of 
the basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong 
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early 
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in
the basin.

The pressure gradient between general higher pressure to the
north and low pressure centered over northern Colombia is
supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin,
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW
basin. Seas are moderate, except rough in the south-central and
slight in the NW. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force
fresh to locally near gale-force trades and rough seas across the
south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. 
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the 
north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into 
early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the tropical 
Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical 
wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter 
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep
tropics. 

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and
continues westward to 30N58W, where it devolves into a surface
trough and continues to 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection us 
noted N of 26N between 47W and 65W and in association with these 
features. The rest of the basin is under the influence of 
subtropical ridging, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas,
except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades between 12N and 
24N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will 
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N going into the upcoming weekend and into early next week. 
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of 
about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period. 

$$
Konarik