Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 041725
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon May 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced near 20W  
based on an observed maximum in deep layer moisture as noted on 
the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery from CIMSS and on 
computer vorticity model guidance. It is moving westward around
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the
wave from the Equator to 02N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from near 12N49W to 
just inland Brazil near 01S47W. This wave was also inferred from 
computer vorticity model guidance, and further supported by a 
maximum in deep layer moisture that trails the wave axis as 
depicted on the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery from CIMSS.
It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is moving through
a very stable atmospheric environment. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave from the Equator 
to 02N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, and
continues southwestward to 07N23N and to the Equator at 27W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02S32W to 01S38W and to 
near 02S45W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection 
is seen south of the ITCZ between 27W-32W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within south of the trough to near 01N between 
21W-24W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 39W-44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida to just 
east of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula while a 
weak 1018 mb is centered over the far north-central Gulf just 
east of southeastern Louisiana. Isolated showers are near some
sections of the front. Latest scatterometer and buoy data indicate
mostly moderate northeast winds south of 28N east of 87W and 
south of 25N between 87W and 93W. Light to gentle anticyclonic 
winds are elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except 
for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will
weaken into tonight then dissipate by Tue. Moderate to fresh SE 
to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu as 
high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. By the end of the 
week, this high will settle over the entire basin, leading to 
tranquil conditions for regional waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central 
Caribbean per latest scatterometer satellite data, except for 
strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela as well as offshore 
Colombia. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Light and
variable winds are over the northwestern part of the sea along 
with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades across the
remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean for the rest of 
this week. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift across 
the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Light and variable winds are 
over the northwestern part of the sea along with seas of 2 to 4
ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N62W southwestward to 28N70W
to weak low pressure of 1014 mb near the northern Bahamas and 
southwestward to the Straits of Florida. A recent scatterometer
satellite data pass indicates fresh to strong northeast winds 
north of the frontal boundary to near 30N and between 72W and 80W.
Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds as seen in recent altimeter
satellite data pass. A large area of moderate to heavy rain, with 
embedded moderate convection is north of 27N between 70W and 74W 
and northwest of the frontal boundary to 70W. Mostly fresh 
northeast winds are elsewhere north of the frontal boundary along 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft. High is over the central Atlantic while a 
couple of weak troughs are over the eastern Atlantic: One extends 
from near 30N27W to 21N35W and the other one from 31N35W to a weak
1014 mb low at 28N33W and to near 25N34W. No significant 
convection is occurring with these features. However, the 
pressure gradient between these features combined with lower 
pressures in western Africa is sustaining moderate to fresh 
northeast winds from 19N to 28N between the wester African 
coast and 22W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
and 1014 mb low pressure will remain nearly stationary into Tue 
before the low moves eastward and the front transitions into a 
cold front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong northeast 
winds north of the front will slowly diminish through mid-week as
the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and 
Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu
night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week.

$$
Aguirre