Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151743
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21W, south of 
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is observed from 04N to 10N between 14W and 26W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 15N, moving 
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 
03N to 08N and between 32W and 40W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving 
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is present S of 09N between 51W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N, moving 
westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the 
waters behind the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 05N38W and then resumes from 05N40W 
to 05.5N52W. In addition to convection described above in the 
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as well as 
in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsehwere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-4 ft E of 90W to 4-6 ft 
W of 90W.

For the forecast, a trough just inland northeastern Mexico will 
drift northward during the next couple of days. It is then 
forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly
re-emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time 
environmental conditions may support some development. Expect 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf 
during this time. Some of this activity may produce wind gusts to 
near gale force. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between a 
western Atlantic ridge that stretches west-northwestward to the NE
Gulf and the low pressure will sustain fresh to strong southerly 
winds over the western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and 
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the 
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas 
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean 
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater 
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong 
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the 
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected 
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle 
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N43W to 26N48W, with scattered
moderate convection seen E of the trough axis out to about 37W 
and N of 28N. Fresh SW winds are also confirmed by recent
scatterometer data E of the trough to about 40W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing along a surface trough
off the SE US coast. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas across much of the basin S of 22N, as
well as N of 22N and E of 35W. NE winds are locally strong in
between the Canary Islands, per recent scatterometer data. Gentle
to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area 
will change little through the period generally maintaining 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N throughout the 
week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds east of northeast Florida 
to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These winds will expand 
eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves 
across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each 
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto 
Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$ 
Adams