Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 300951
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0935 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall across the NE Caribbean: A strong tropical
wave, associated with the remnants of Dolly, is moving across the
northern Leeward Islands producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, especially from 15N to 22N and between 56W and 
65W. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there 
are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is
unlikely while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at 
about 25 mph. The system could bring locally heavy rains and gusty
winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the next couple of days. The wave is expected to
bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the 
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the adjacent 
waters over the next several days. Rainfall amounts and the 
location of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as
local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the 
heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for 
specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. 

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm on both sides of the
trough axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 21N, 
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Fresh to locally near gale-force 
winds and rough seas are associated with this wave. Recently a 
buoy north of the Leeward Islands reported winds gusts to 41 kt 
and gusts to 43 kt has been reported in the northern Leewards. See
the Special Features section above for more information on this 
wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving
westward near 20 kt. No significant convection is noted over 
water.

For information about the tropical wave crossing Central America,
please read the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 11N29W. The
ITCZ extends from 12N31W to 11N37W and then from 09N40W to 07N47W
and to 10N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present within 150 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1015 mb low pres south of the mouth of the Mississippi River is
producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the 
north-central Gulf waters. A surface trough is noted in the
eastern Gulf, also supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. A weak high pressure system dominates the 
remainder of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds 
and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the north-central and eastern Gulf
waters, especially east of 90W and eastern Bay of Campeche. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, some slow development of this system 
(aforementioned low pres) is possible during the next few days as 
it drifts westward across the northern Gulf. Regardless of 
development, mariners over the northern Gulf waters can expect 
thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas over the 
next few days. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through 
the forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and 
slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off 
western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface 
trough moving west off the peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall
information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across 
the northern Leeward Islands. 

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is helping to enhance a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean
waters, especially off Panama. High pressure north of the islands
sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft
in the central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms, strong winds and rough seas 
today to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and nearby waters 
south of 23N, and then Hispaniola and SE Bahamas on Mon. 
Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will
aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early this week. To
the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to 
locally strong off northern Hispaniola through tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across
the Leeward Islands.

Abundant moisture, a surface trough and divergence aloft associated
with an upper level trough over the eastern United States combine
to generate numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms west of 
70W. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and 
higher seas near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, a broad 
subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic
between Africa and the Bahamas. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail across the area, outside of the influence of
the remnants of Dolly. However, fresh northerly winds and seas of
5-9 ft are found off Morocco and northern Mauritania.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly 
will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, strong winds and 
rough seas today to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and nearby
waters south of 23N, and then Hispaniola and SE Bahamas on Mon. 
Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough 
will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early this 
week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting
mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will 
pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through tonight..

$$
Delgado