Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 190019
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue May 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high
near 31N35W and lower pressures over northern Africa supports
strong to near gale force NE winds generally E of 20W and N of
17N. Winds are expected to increase today and accordingly, Meteo-
France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone through at
least 19/00 UTC. Rough seas will accompany these winds as well.

For more information, please read the Meteo-France warning text 
and High Seas forecast at:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 11N
southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Patchy showers are 
seen from 02N to 06N between 20W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands
near 56W from 14N southward to over Suriname, and nearly 
stationary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen 
across Suriname and French Guiana.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 16N southward
across the western Panama and nearly stationary. Convection is 
addressed in the monsoon trough section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast just
north of Conakry, then runs southwestward to 05N19W. Farther west,
an ITCZ reaches westward from 04N25W to 02N43W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough
near the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia. Scattered moderate
convection is present up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end fo the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering 
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica
and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the Florida
Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico. A thermal trough is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just off 
central and southwestern Florida. Otherwise, the ridge is
supporting gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the northeastern
and east-central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with
3 to 5 ft seas exist north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain across the northern Gulf 
through the week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the 
western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower 
pressure over Mexico. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the 
northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings through midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough reaches southeastward from a low east of the
northwest Bahamas at 28N74W to southeast of Puerto Rico. It is
enhancing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms across Cuba and Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean
waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for 
additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E 
trade winds continues across the south-central basin, and in the 
Gulf of Honduras. Seas at the south-central basin are from 8 to 10
ft, and 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE 
to ESE winds with 2 to 5 ft seas are present at the lee of Cuba 
and, near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds 
and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf 
of Honduras into Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the 
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas can be expected in the
central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in 
rough seas will impact the Atlantic waters near the Lesser
Antilles into Tue night, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough meanders west-southwestward from 32N49W to 
28N73W. Coupling with an upper-level low east of the northwest
Bahamas near 28N74W, scattered moderate convection is occurring 
north of 21N between 66W and 73W, and over the northwest and
central Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident north of
20N west of 68W, except moderate to fresh winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas off northern Hispaniola. To the east, a subtropical ridge
extending west-southwestward from a 1027 mb Atlantic High near
31N32W to north of the Lesser Antilles near 27N60W is sustaining
gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 25N between 35W and
68W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 6 to 9 ft
seas dominate from 04N to 25N between 35W and 68W/Lesser Antilles.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will support 
fresh trade winds and rough seas with E swell east of the Leeward 
Islands and north of Hispaniola Thu. A surface trough from south 
of Bermuda to around 29N73W will dissipate tonight, leaving tranquil
marine conditions in place through mid-week. 

$$

Chan