Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 260428
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jul 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb
Azores High and lower pressures over northern Africa currently
support strong to near gale-force NE winds between the Canary 
Islands and the coast of Morocco. These winds were confirmed by 
scatterometer data from 0200 UTC tonight. Winds are expected to
remain at or near gale-force for the next few hours before
diminishing later tonight. Accordingly, Meteo France has issued a
Gale Warning for the Agadir Zone until 26/03 UTC. 

For more details, please refer to Meteo-France's website at: 
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 45-46W, from 
08N to 22N, moving W at 12-20 kt. A broad mid level cyclonic
circulation can be seen in PW animations. Convection near this 
wave is discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean with axis 
along 62W-63W, moving W at 15-20 kt. An upper level low is
centered to the NW and is shearing associated convection to the E
of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to
19N between 55W and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has been added to the 0000 UTC
surface map, along 73W, moving westward at 15-20 kt, and is well
depicted in PW animations. The wave is moving through a zone of 
dry and sinking air across the central basin, and no associated 
convection is seen over water at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave previously along 75W is racing westward
and has nearly merged with the tropical wave ahead of it across
Central America along about 90W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues 
to 12N23W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N38W to 07.5N44W to 
05.5N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is exiting
Africa from 10N to 17N E of 20W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring from 08.5N to 14N between 20W and
27W, and 08N to 12.5N between 29W and 40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N between 40W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28.5N88W.
Evening thunderstorms across central Florida have shifted westward
to the coast near Tampa Bay and adjacent coastal waters within 60
nm and are weakening quickly. An upper level low is centered over
the Bay of Campeche N of 20N, and is supporting a cluster of
moderate to strong convection shifting westward off the Yucatan
Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The surface high
is promoting light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin N
of 21N, where seas are 3 ft or less. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds are occurring along the W coast of the Yucatan, in associated
with the evening thermal trough there. Seas there area 3 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will
promote gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin 
through early next week. Fresh winds will continue offshore the 
western Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and then will pulse to moderate
N winds each evening and night through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection dots the waters of the NW Caribbean
from western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel southward across the
Gulf of Honduras, to just offshore of NE Nicaragua. This activity
is occurring behind a tropical wave now across the eastern
Pacific along about 90W.

The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and 
the western Atlantic ridge extending into central Florida is 
forcing fresh to strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean,
generally S of 16N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft between 72W and 80W.
Across the eastern basin, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
prevail, with moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft. Across the NW Caribbean, 
NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with slight seas. The
exception there is fresh E wind across the interior Gulf of 
Honduras, where seas are locally 6 to 8 ft. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central 
Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds will continue 
across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The ridge will weaken and 
shift east by Mon, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the 
central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas 
will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as 
the ridge builds north of the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough in the W Atlantic combined with upper level
divergence from an upper level trough N of the region are aiding 
in persistent scattered moderate convection from 28N to 31N 
between 68W and 72W. Isolated moderate convection dots the 
central and northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is 
also occurring from the E coasts of the Lesser Antilles to 54W,
behind a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean
described above. Another upper low and surface trough extends 
into the north central waters, and is promoting scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection from 25N to 29N between 47W
and 59W. Elsewhere at the surface, the pressure gradient between 
the Azores High and lower pressure along the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough is producing moderate to fresh trades along with moderate 
seas across much of the Atlantic S of 26W. E of 33W, the pressure 
gradient tightens and is producing fresh to strong NE winds along
with rough seas of 8-10 ft impacting waters N of 18N, including 
near the Canary Islands where NE winds are strong to near-gale 
force. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will 
shift southeastward through early this week, allowing a cold 
front to move offshore the SE U.S. Sun, then stall along about 31N.
SW winds will increase and producing building seas N of 25N 
through the middle of next week between this stalled front and 
the Atlantic ridge to the east. 

$$
Stripling