Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 111700
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic west-
northwestward to north Florida and the NE Gulf of America, and 
lower pressures over northern South America, will continue to 
support strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds over the 
south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, into 
early next week. Morning satellite scatterometer data showed 
winds near gale-force off the north coast of Colombia, where 
satellite altimeter data showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. Winds and 
seas have since diminished slightly across that area. Winds are 
forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia again 
tonight through Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 
ft are expected with these winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has entered the Caribbean, along 61W-62W, south 
of 18N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered squalls and moderate
thunderstorms are seen moving across the SE Caribbean, Windward
Islands, and adjacent Atlantic waters south of 14N between 
between 55W and 64W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has entered the Yucatan Peninsula and 
is now along about 88W, south of 21N and into the eastern Tropical
Pacific, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is south of 20N, extending from 84.5W westward across 
the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent waters and well inland.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N31W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N32W to 06N51W to the coast of Guyana near 
07.5N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
occurring from 08N to 12N and between 15W and 27W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 31W and 57W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward
across north Florida and the Florida Big Bend today. Associated 
southeasterly low level flow continues to transport areas of 
abundant low level moisture into the basin. Clusters of scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms extends from the SE Louisiana 
southward to near 26N, and area also about the Texas coastal 
waters. Overnight convection across the Florida Straits and SE 
Gulf has diminished in intensity, however scattered moderate 
showers persist there. The subtropical ridge is supporting light
to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft across the waters east of 88W.
Gentle to moderate SE to S winds generally prevail west of 88W,
where seas are also 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary will approach the northern 
Gulf coast this weekend, enhancing thunderstorm activity across 
the area into early next week. Mariners should expect gusty 
winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas near the strongest 
thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate into next 
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate SE winds. However, 
fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan 
Peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. The pressure
gradient south of the western Atlantic ridge to the north is 
supporting mostly strong trade winds south of 17.5N between 67W 
and 80W, based on morning satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8
ft 15 ft across this area. Fresh to locally strong E-NE trade 
winds accompany the tropical wave entering the Caribbean this 
morning, and extend to the east of the wave axis and into the 
Tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. Squalls and 
thunderstorms are ahead of the tropical wave in the SE Caribbean. 
Seas across this area are 6-8 ft.

Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture accompanying
the tropical wave continues to producing scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean west of 84.5W. Similar 
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from western Panama to
southeast Nicaragua.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the islands and lower 
environmental pressures over northern South America combine to 
support strong to near gale-force easterly trades and rough seas 
over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. This 
pattern will persist into next week. Winds will pulse to gale- 
force off Colombia tonight. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will
pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period. 
Finally, moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate 
seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A persistent upper level low pressure system over the SE Bahamas
and eastern Cuba is combining with abundant tropical moisture 
surging northwestward across the Bahamas and into south Florida  
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW 
Bahamas, The Florida Straits, and nearby waters. A squall line is
seen northeast of Abaco moving northeastward. Farther east, 
divergence aloft and a frontal trough just north of our area
extending southwestward to near 27N60W support scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and between 53W and 61W. 
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 
broad subtropical ridge that sustains fresh to strong easterly 
trade winds and moderate seas, except for locally rough seas to 8
ft off Haiti and eastern Cuba, and across the waters east of the
Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper level low pressure
currently over the NW Bahamas will move westward through the 
weekend, supporting thunderstorms with locally strong winds, 
frequent lightning and higher seas. Meanwhile, the subtropical 
ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate
to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the 
north. Pulsing strong and locally rough seas winds are expected 
each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

$$
Stripling