Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;585922
AXNT20 KNHC 311015
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Large Swell: 
A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N46W to 23N63W. A shear line curves
westward from 23N63W to 24N78W. Near-gale NE winds prevail in the
vicinity of the front. These winds will continue to weaken as the
front dissipates gradually today. Large, long-period northerly
swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 18 ft up to 450 nm northwest of
the boundary. This northerly swell will steadily decline over the
next couple of days, allowing seas to gradually subside, possibly
dropping below 12 ft on Wed evening.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the following website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 02N28W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted S of 05N between 22W-33W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend
area to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas
at 4 to 6 ft are present across the Florida Straits, north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are 
expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half 
of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for 
strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen at the south-central basin,
in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and near the
Windward Passage. Seas range from 8 to 11 ft at the south-central
basin, up to 8 ft near the Windward Passage, and 4 to 6 ft in the
lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Mainly moderate NE to E 
winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the
area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period, 
pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will 
also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the large swell. 

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N46W to 23N63W. A shear line curves westward 
from 23N63W to over the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are 
found near and up to 220 nm northwest of the front. A pre- 
frontal trough is triggering similar conditions north of 25N 
between 45W and 49W. 

Outside of the very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features 
section, fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are evident 
behind the frontal boundary and shear line, except moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft north of 25N between 78W and 
the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther southeast, gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft in large N swell 
exist from 18N to the stationary front between 57W and the 
southeast Bahamas. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, 
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will dissipate on Tue. Strong high pressure building in the wake 
of the front should keep fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough 
to very rough seas across most of the western Atlantic for the 
second half of the week. 
 
$$
ERA