Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 020944
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0925 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 10N and east of 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present south
of 12N between 45W and 58W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated 
with this wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Western Sahara near 23N16W and continues southwestward to 07N35W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 04N to 10N and between 27W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting
moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across the basin. 
Divergence aloft is producing a few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the basin through the
forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will 
pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week 
due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western
half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected 
elsewhere E of 90W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered
north of the islands and lower pressures in northern Colombia
supported fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds
and seas of 6-11 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate 
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the lee of Cuba and
off Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge
north of the islands and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong
trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean
through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through Sun. Expect winds
to reach near gale-force each night offshore of Colombia and in 
the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will 
continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds 
will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and 
thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through
Fri night as an upper-level trough sinks across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1034 mb high pressure system centered north of the Azores
extends a ridge southwestward to the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N and west
of 35W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
present north of 20N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. A surface trough extends
from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and a few showers are evident in 
the NW Bahamas and off SE Florida. Similar convection is occurring
north of 27N and between 50W and 62W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will 
gradually dissipate today while drifting northwestward toward the 
southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly
westward into central Florida through early next week. This 
pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E-SE trade winds S 
of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to 
locally strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening 
hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. 

$$
Delgado