Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160424
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten 
between surface ridging over the western Atlantic and lower 
pressure in northern South America. This is supporting gale- 
force northeast to east winds off Colombia through Sun morning. 
Expect rough to very rough seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of
these winds. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two 
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days. The wave will interact with enhanced divergence 
aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located  
near 87W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy 
precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of
Panama and into Choco-Colombia on into Sun. On Sun, the second 
tropical wave will enter the western Caribbean and strengthen the 
cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia that will favor an 
increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly 
flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest 
precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through early on Sun, 
while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, 
the Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia Sun into Monday. There is 
some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could 
reach, particularly due to how far south the available moisture 
and the westerly flow enters the region. 

Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather 
services for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 
05N to 21N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is ahead of the wave S of 13N to near 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 04N 
to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the wave environment.

An eastern Caribbean strong tropical wave is along 67W south of 
21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis.

The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed along 87W
and south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. The convection 
related to this feature is confined to the EPAC waters. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and extends 
southwestward to 08N47W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 
08N53W and to near 10N60W. Convection is discussed in the 
Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near 
29N88W. Its related gradient is supporting gentle to moderate 
winds across the forecast waters. Seas over the basin are 2 to 4 
ft. Fresh winds are occurring north and west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche, as a surface trough 
extends across the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the north-
central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by Tue
while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with
pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as the diurnal surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning  
in effect for the waters offshore Colombia.

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and 
rough seas are over most of the Caribbean south of 18N. Moderate 
to fresh trades continue over the remainder of the waters along 
with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge N of the area combined with the 
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over 
most of the east and central Caribbean through Sun. Peak winds to 
minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight into 
early Sun morning. The tropical wave along 67W, will continue to 
impact the eastern and portions of the central Caribbean tonight. 
Fresh to strong winds, moderate to rough seas and heavy rain will
be associated with the wave, forecast to move across the central 
Caribbean through Mon, reaching the NW part of the basin Mon night
into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands
by Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high center south-southwest 
of Bermuda near 26N71W continues across the basin. Latest 
satellite Ascat scatterometer data indicates fresh northeast winds
along the coast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands.
Seas are around 6 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, latest 
satellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate or weaker 
trades. Seas are about 4 to 6 ft with these trades.

Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 28N and W of 53W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 31N59W to 27N64W. The base of a 
broad upper-level trough translating eastward is north of 31N 
between 50W and 70W, with impulses riding along it from west to 
east. This activity is also south of a frontal boundary well 
north of the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined 
with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea 
will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including 
the approaches and in the Windward Passage through Sun night. 
A cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border
east of 70W late on Sun, and move across the northern forecast 
waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. Fresh to 
strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 70W 
on Sun and Sun night.  

$$
ERA