Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 090411
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jul 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to gale-force NE winds over the south
central Caribbean tonight, Fri night, and Sat night off Colombia.
Gale-force winds are also possible in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri 
night and Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft on 
Sat. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed 
near the trough axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is present from 11N to 16N and between 60W and
66W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the 
trough axis over the Caribbean. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 10N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N26W to 09N32W, then continues from 08N35W to
03N51W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture combine to
produce showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the basin
south of 25N and east of 85W, with the strongest convection 
occurring in the Bay of Campeche. A 1020 mb high pressure over the
eastern Gulf results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas south of 25N and east of 96W. Elsewhere, moderate 
or lighter winds and slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure extending westward
across the basin from the Atlantic will change little through
Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast
Fri through Sat night. The weather pattern will support gentle
to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of
about 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of
about 26N. The exception will be occasional fresh to strong
northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night.
A mid to upper- level low along with a moist and unstable
airmass will generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the SW Gulf, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin south of about
28N through Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.

Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and the western Greater 
Antilles. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic 
continues to dominate the Caribbean. Outside of the Gale Warning 
area, strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough 
seas are found across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally
strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras, lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage and the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through
early next week. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is 
accompanied by fresh to strong trades along with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms that are currently present from 13N to
16N between 62W and 65W. These trades will combine with those 
already present in the central Caribbean beginning Thu night as 
the wave advances westward. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper level low near the SE Bahamas is enhancing some 
shower and isolated thunderstorm activity north of Hispaniola. 
Meanwhile, an expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 
27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high center at 27N47W. The pressure 
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds off northern 
Haiti. Seas of 6-8 ft in these waters. 

Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are 
found south of 23N and east of 35W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds 
and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ to a line from 30N20W to 25N35W and east of 35W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will
change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. 
The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of
23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N 
where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail. 
Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at 
night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through early next week.

$$
Delgado