Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 280952
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jul 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 35W, 
extending from 07N to 16N, and moving westward at around 15-20 
kt. Widely scattered showers are ahead of this wave, from 11N to
13.5N between 34W and 36W. A small 1013 mb low center remains a 
few degrees ahead of the wave, along the monsoon trough near 09.5N
37.5W. 

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the
E Caribbean with axis near 61W-62W, extending from 08N to 19N, 
and moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated showers not the NE 
Caribbean waters ahead of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis along 82W, from 
10N to 18N, and moving westward at around 10-15 kt. A cluster of 
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted about the wave 
from 09N to 14N between 79W and 84W, while isolated showers are
noted near the northern portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues 
to 13N26W to 1013 mb low pressure near 09.5N37.6W to 09N39W. The 
ITCZ begins near 09N39W and continues to 07.5N45W to 08N59W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present offshore
Africa, from 05N to 13N between the African coast and 20W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05.5N to 10N 
between 20W and 58W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ongoing over the
NE Gulf, from the coastal waters of Panama City to between Cedar
Key and Tampa Bay, and is associated with low level convergence
occurring north of a surface trough that extends eastward across 
central Florida. Similar convection is along the coast on either
side of Veracruz, Mexico. The remainder Gulf is under the 
influence of a 1016 mb high centered near 24.5N90W, which is 
supporting light to gentle variable winds over the central and SE 
basin along with slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
prevail in the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. 
Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are also W of 95W while moderate 
or weaker NW winds are over the NE Gulf N of 28N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the central Gulf
to promote generally quiescent marine conditions for the next 
several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the 
northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next
couple of days over the NE Gulf due to an approaching weak cold 
front across the SE U.S. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on associated convection. Isolated moderate convection extends
from western Cuba southwestward to the entrance to the Yucatan
Channel. Strong upper level SW wind shear dominates much of the N
half of the basin, occurring the to south of an upper trough
across NW portions.

Atlantic ridging dominates the region north of the basin, 
extending W-SW along 24N-25N and into the central Bahamas, while 
1010 mb low pressure is analyzed over northern Colombia near 
09N74W. The pressure gradient between the two features supports 
on;y moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean along 
with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the 
remainder of basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the increasing pressure gradient between western 
Atlantic high pressure along 24N-25N and the Colombian Low 
will strengthen trade winds to strong over the S central 
Caribbean this afternoon through Fri evening before diminishing. 
Trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh 
each evening and night beginning Wednesday night through Sat. A 
tropical wave entering the E Caribbean this morning will enhance 
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the E and SE Caribbean 
through Wed morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is moving slowly southeastward across the SW N 
Atlantic waters from 31N75W to central coastal Florida, supported
by a sharp upper trough along the east coast of the U.S. 
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead of this boundary, 
extending from the waters of the Upper Florida Keys northeastward
to near 31N69W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also within 90 nm east of a second trough that extends from 
31N66W to 26N72W. affecting the northern offshore waters N of 27N 
between 66W and 78W. 1024 mb high pressure near 28N44W dominates 
the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters and provides moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas N of 22N and W of 30W. The 
gradient of pressure between the ridge and the front over the SW 
waters supports moderate to fresh SW winds W of 60W, where seas
are 4 to 7 ft. South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic S of
22N, where seas are 5 to 8 ft W of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This 
in combination with a stationary front offshore of the Carolinas 
will force fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 60W for the next several 
days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from Wed afternoon through Sat. 

$$
Stripling