Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 171729
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1651 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low 
will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central 
Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale- 
force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat 
night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during 
the times of peak winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A well defined eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 
22.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Recent satellite
imagery and scatterometer data suggest a 1012 mb surface low is 
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 09.5N to 14.5N between 19W 
and 25W. Significant development of this system is not expected before 
environmental conditions become even less favorable for development 
over the weekend, while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 
mph. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the 
next 7 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43.5W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is depicted
with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues 
southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 13N22W to 09N42W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N47W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate 
convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W. 
Similar convection is depicted from 07N to 10N between 49.5W and 
58W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds over the Bay of Campeche as shown by recent 
satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 6 ft across this 
area. Moderate E-SE winds are present in the remainder of the 
western waters, where seas are 2-5 ft. North and near the high, 
gentle to moderate NW winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail. 
Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Upper 
level low pressure across the east Gulf is supporting a cluster 
of moderate to strong convection along the W coast of Florida from
25N to 28N and west of 85.5W.  Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are also across the Mexican coastal waters from Cabo
Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.

For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern 
Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse 
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail 
elsewhere. Upper level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will 
support thunderstorms across portions of the NE Gulf through Sun.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this 
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual 
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the 
northeastern Gulf, northern Florida, or the extreme western 
Atlantic near northeastern Florida early next week. The chance of 
formation through the next 7 days is low.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are estimated at 10 to 14 ft in the
area presently. Please refer to the Special Features section for 
more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists north of the Caribbean 
Sea, forcing strong to near-gale easterly trade winds across the 
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found 
in these waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in 
the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge oriented along 27N and the Colombian low will 
support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of 
Colombia tonight and Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near- gale 
force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of 
the central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south 
of 15N through Tue. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong 
each evening in the Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge persists across the tropical 
Atlantic north of 24N, anchored by 1025 mb centered near 28N49W 
and extends westward to the Bahamas. Saharan dust and mid- 
latitude dry air continue to dominate the basin, suppressing the 
development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh easterly trade 
winds and moderate seas are occurring off the SE Bahamas, Haiti 
and eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent south of 24N and west of 30W to the 
Lesser Antilles. Scattered clusters of moderate convection are 
noted from offshore of Cape Canaveral northeastward toward 
Bermuda.

Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough 
and east of 32W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 
ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical 
ridge axis extends westward along 27N and will drift slightly 
northward through Sun night, then weaken early next week as a 
broad surface trough develops between 50W and 60W and shifts 
westward through mid week. This weather pattern will support 
moderate to fresh trades south of 24N Sun night, and gentle winds 
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each evening and 
night across the waters N of Hispaniola and in the Windward 
Passage. 

$$
KRV