Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 071713
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jan 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to
06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N25W to 04N36W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N 
between 10W and 14W, and from 06N to 09N between 49W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with a 1020 mb high pressure
located over SW Florida. This system supports a light to gentle 
anticyclonic flow over much of the basin, with the exception of 
gentle to moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf, and gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 1 to 3
ft prevail over the basin. 

For the forecast, widespread fresh SE to S winds and moderate 
seas are expected to develop west of 90W tonight as the pressure 
gradient increases between the ridge over the eastern Gulf and a 
developing storm system in the central United States. Strong winds
will pulse offshore of south Texas and northeastern Mexico tonight
through Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these winds. 
Moderate to fresh SE winds will expand eastward over much of the 
Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking 
ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early this 
weekend. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are 
expected in the wake of the front as it sweeps over the basin into
early next week. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of 
Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Sat into early Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low is
producing fresh to strong trade winds with rough seas over the 
south-central Caribbean. Locally fresh N winds are occurring south
of Hispaniola, and in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands. Seas of
3 to 5 ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Patches of low level 
moisture, with possible showers, are affecting the NW Caribbean, 
and parts of the Yucatan peninsula, Belize and Honduras. Shallow 
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E 
winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this 
weekend. Rough seas will occur near and to the west of these 
winds. Strong winds are also expected each afternoon and evening 
in the Gulf of Venezuela starting on Thu afternoon. Fresh NE to E 
winds will occur over the central Caribbean tonight, including 
through the Windward Passage, with widespread fresh winds expanding
over much of the basin through late week as the pressure gradient
increases between the Colombian low and high pressure to the 
north. Pulsing strong winds are expected through the Windward 
Passage and south of Hispaniola nightly starting on Thu.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low pressure located N of area
near 33N45.5W southwestward to 26N50W where it transitions to a 
stationary front to a 1014 mb low pressure situated near 21N59W 
based on latest visible satellite imagery. A swirl of mainly low 
clouds is related to this low. An area of showers, with embedded 
thunderstorms is occurring E of the low center, and mainly from 
17N to 23N between 50W and 57W. Recent scatterometer data indicate
fresh to strong winds associated with this convective activity. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere along 
the frontal boundary. A ridge extends across the western Atlantic 
and Florida into the Gulf of America. Strong high pressure of 1037
mb located between the Azores and the Madeiras Islands dominates 
the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong NE 
winds are evident N of 15N E of 20W, and from 21N to 30N between 
20W and 30W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft within these winds. Moderate to 
fresh trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are observed over the 
tropical Atlantic E of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas, in long period NE swell, are seen E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW to W 
winds and moderate seas occurring east of 67W and north of 29N 
will slowly diminish this afternoon as a surface trough moves 
eastward. Gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
then expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic on Thu as a 
weak pressure gradient develops. High pressure building off the 
coast of the eastern United States on Fri will support moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the region 
through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated move 
off the coast of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, leading to fresh NW
winds and building seas in the wake of the front. 

$$
GR