Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 301537
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall across the NE Caribbean: A strong tropical 
wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection from 15N-21N between
58W-67W, including Puerto Rico eastward across the Virgin Islands
and the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally near-gale winds and
8-12 ft seas are associated with this wave from 18N-22N between
60W-65W. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that 
there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and 
redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the 
wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 20 kt. The 
system should bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to 
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico over the next couple of days. Rainfall amounts and the 
location of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as
local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the 
heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for 
specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Conditions may 
become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week 
as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America and the 
system has a low chance of formation through 7 days

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 22N, 
moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is occurring from 13N-15N between 33W-40W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 23N, 
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is occurring from 15N-21N between 58W-67W. See 
the Special Features section above for more information on this 
wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 2-N, 
moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring south of 11N between 77W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania at
20N16W southwestward to 10N29W. The ITCZ begins there and extends
to 10N39W, where it breaks for the central Atlantic tropical wave.
The ITCZ resumes at 09N43W and extends westward to coastal Guyana
at 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-15N
east of 21W and from 07N-11N between 45W-57W. Isolated moderate
convection is also noted from 07N-10N between 15W-45W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1014 mb low pressure about 100 NM south of the mouth of the 
Mississippi River is producing a cluster of thunderstorms in the 
north-central waters. Aside from gusty winds in thunderstorms, peak
winds are around 20 kt and seas 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds across the
Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, slow development of the low is possible over 
the next couple of days as it moves west or west-northwest across
the northern basin. Regardless of development, mariners over the 
north-central and northwest Gulf can expect strong thunderstorms 
with gusty winds and locally higher seas early this week. There is
a low chance of tropical formation of this low pressure over the 
next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through 
the forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and 
slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off 
western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface 
trough moving west off the peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall
information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across 
the NE Caribbean. 

The pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area
along with the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong
trades over the S central Caribbean with seas 5-8 ft.
Additionally, seas of 5-8 ft in NE swell are impacting the 
Anegada Passage. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas
2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will move 
quickly westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then 
eastern Cuba into Tue. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure 
gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will 
continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and 
moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern 
Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the 
waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across
the NE Caribbean.

The Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1025 
mb center at 34N54W and a second 1026 mb center at 34N32W. The
pressure gradient from those to lower pressure over the ITCZ and
monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally strong trades
this morning with seas of 3-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted north of 25N between 73W-77W associated with a surface
trough extending from 28N76W to beyond 31N74W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly 
will move quickly westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and 
Monday, then eastern Cuba into Tue, bringing similar conditions to
waters S of 23N early this week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical 
moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered 
thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical 
ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off 
Hispaniola through tonight. 

$$
Landsea/Konarik