Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 290233
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0325 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south
of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near
the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of
13N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
found south of 10N and between 50W and 58W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, south of
20N, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 17N to 22N and between 59W and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 06N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 05N53W. Isolated showers are present
within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward
into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to locally strong NE-E
winds and moderate seas south of 23N and between 90W and 95W. 
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas west of
93W and north of 23N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E 
to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the 
remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected 
elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE 
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low moving across the Florida Keys and diurnal heating
combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across Cuba and nearby waters. Scattered showers are also
affecting the NE Caribbean due to another upper level low north of
the area and a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. 

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to near gale-force force easterly trade winds across much of the 
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest
winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to 
locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the 
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined
with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds
over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching
near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or 
lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin 
during the next several days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low centered north of the Leeward Islands combine
with a surface trough along 61W to produce scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 26N and between 57W and 66W.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 25N and east of 30W. 

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly 
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds up to 31 kt 
between Gran Canaria and Tenerife in the Canary Islands. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin 
will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of 
Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for 
the next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push off 
of the SE United States coast and extend from approximately 31N73W
to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold 
front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure 
area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal 
system on Monday or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it drifts westward over our NW waters 
north of 28N.

$$
Delgado