Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;378152
AXNT20 KNHC 150825
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW waters later
this morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri 
morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it 
will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough 
seas will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to 
reach gale force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by this 
evening. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the 
upcoming weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and 
rough seas.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the 
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed 
by fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per 
recent buoy and platform observations, and earlier ASCAT 
scatterometer data, along with building and rough seas. Frequent 
gusts to gale force are expected across the coastal waters of the 
NE Gulf, particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL 
through much of today. Conditions will improve across the Gulf 
region Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to
strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend, 
potentially developing northerly gale-force winds near Tampico and
Veracruz on Sun.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 08N15W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N12W to 02N30W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 00N to 
02N between 14W and 20W, and from 01.5N to 04N between 21W and 
26.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special 
Features section for more details. 

As mentioned, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 
near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed by fresh to near 
gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per recent buoy and 
platform observations, and earlier ASCAT scatterometer data, along
with building and rough seas. Multilayer clouds, with possible 
showers, are noted over most of the Gulf waters and Florida. 
Mainly moderate SW-W winds with a pre-frontal trough are noted 
across the remainder of the basin ahead of the front. 

For the forecast, a cold front from the Florida Big Bend to near 
Tampico, Mexico will move rapidly across the basin, shifting 
southeast of the area by this evening. The front is followed by 
increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve from 
NW to SE tonight into the weekend. A reinforcing front and surge 
of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin this 
weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean early this
morning, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are 
noted over the remainder of the east and central parts of the 
basin S of 20N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
dominate the western Caribbean, except in the far NW Caribbean
where a pre-frontal trough reaches from the western tip of Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras with moderate NW winds to the W of it. Some 
shower activity is observed near the trough. Elsewhere, patches of
low level moisture, with possible showers, prevail.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds 
offshore of NW Colombia early this morning, then return Fri night 
through the weekend and into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds will prevail through early today, except moderate 
to fresh across the remainder of the central Caribbean S of 20N. A
cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today, stall 
from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure
gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the 
upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds 
and building seas across the basin, while a reinforcing front and 
surge of winds also arrives in the NW Caribbean by early Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale 
Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida where 
it has stalled, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N
and W of 68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up 
near this boundary. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and W of 
68W, along with locally rough seas, mainly N of 30N.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic 
forecast region. Under the influence of this system, an area of 
fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 12N to 26N and E of 35W to
the coast of W Africa, including near the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within these winds. Moderate to locally 
fresh trades are observed across the tropical Atlantic with 
moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly 
moderate seas are elsewhere. An upper-level low in the central 
Atlantic near 23N38W is triggering some shower activity, while
moist southerly flow in the wake of a warm front now well N of 31N
supports additional shower activity N of 27N between 46W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing front will move off 
Florida later this morning and merge with the leading front, 
reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and 
extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall 
and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the 
front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force Thu 
night east of the front and N of 29N. Another cold front may 
impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky