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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;065725
AXNT20 KNHC 120839
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the
Carolina and Georgia coast this afternoon. Expect fresh to strong
S winds to become W to NW at near-gale to gale-force by late
this afternoon into the overnight hours. Seas will follow and
rise to between 8 and 11 ft by late tonight. As the cold front
pulls farther southeastward into the western Atlantic and weakens,
conditions will gradually improve on Friday.
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between an
Atlantic Ridge N of the Caribbean and a Colombian Low will cause
near-gale to gale-force easterly winds along with 8 to 11 ft seas
at the waters off Barranquilla through the early morning hours
today. Afterward, both winds and seas should gradually subside
through Friday morning.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving into
the NW Gulf, extending from SE Louisiana to near Brownsville,
Texas early this morning, with fresh to strong winds and building
seas behind it, gale-force winds in the coastal waters. The front
will quickly reach from the mid-Florida Panhandle to just SE of
Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon, then will stall and significantly
weaken over the SE Gulf tonight into early Fri, dissipating Fri
night.
For the gale events above, please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and refer to the
latest local NWS Weather Forecast Office for more information.
Gale Warning E of 35W: The Meteo-France issued Gale Warning for
the Agadir marine zone was in effect until 12/03 UTC. Please
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast and border
of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to near
04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W across 00N25W to near
the coast of Brazil at 03S39W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough S of 05N to
the E of 16W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present near the ITCZ from 04.5S to 03.5N between 17W and 35W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.
A strong cold front is moving into the NW Gulf, extending from SE
Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas early this morning, with
fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, gale-force
winds in the coastal waters. An outflow boundary or pre-frontal
trough is ahead of the front reaching from the western Florida
Panhandle to the SE tip of Louisiana to Mexico near 24.5N97.5W
with a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
it. Special Marine Warnings are in effect for parts of the NE Gulf
coastal waters. Meanwhile, a Dense Fog Advisory is once again in
effect for the NE Gulf, for the Apalachee Bay waters to 60 nm
offshore. Refer to your local NWS Weather Forecast Office for
more details on both. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending
southwestward from central Florida to just north of Tampico,
Mexico is dominating the rest of the Gulf with gentle to moderate
mainly SE-S winds and seas of 3-5 ft, except lower in the eastern
Gulf coastal waters of Florida.
For the forecast, the front will quickly reach from the mid-
Florida Panhandle to just SE of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon,
then will stall and significantly weaken over the SE Gulf tonight
into early Fri, dissipating Fri night. Marine conditions will
improve significantly early Fri through Sun as weak high pressure
settles just N of the basin. Another cold front will move into the
NW Gulf Sun night and reach the SE Gulf by Mon night. Strong to
near gale-force winds will follow the front along with rough seas,
with possible gales in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tamaulipas and
Veracruz, Mexico Mon and Mon night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.
A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin.
Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and
seas of 7-9 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to
moderate E-SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted at the northwestern
basin and off the coast of Costa Rica. Moderate to fresh E-SE
winds and seas at 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea,
including the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, S of Hispaniola, and
the Windward Passage. No significant convection is evident on
satellite imagery.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High
and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
central basin through this morning, gale-force just offshore
Colombia until around sunrise. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will also pulse near the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and
the Gulf of Honduras this morning. The high pressure will shift
eastward today through Fri night, leading to fresh to strong winds
becoming confined to the south-central Caribbean S of 13N during
that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area- wide as
the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will build across
the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to
strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N
Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.
A cold front is moving through the SE United States and fresh to
strong S-SW winds have developed ahead of it offshore northern
Florida. Ridging extends from high pressure near the Azores
through near Bermuda to near Cape Canaveral, Florida ahead of the
incoming front. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted
N of 27N between 60W and 77W under the ridge. A persistent
trough is near 53W to the N of 20N, drifting W with some isolated
to widely scattered showers with it. Moderate to fresh NE-E trades
dominate a large portion of the tropical Atlantic across the
remainder of the waters W of 20W to the Caribbean Islands and the
SE Bahamas. A tight pressure gradient remains over the waters off
northern Africa with fresh to strong NE winds N of 25N and E of
20W. Associated seas of 8-11 ft are N of 22N and E of 30W, except
locally higher off Morocco. Seas are 5-8 ft across the remainder
of the open waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move offshore
of NE Florida by this evening with fresh to gale-force winds and
quickly building seas behind it Thu night. The front will then
rapidly weaken and begin to stall as it reaches from near 31N71W
to extreme S Florida Fri morning, then drift NW and dissipate Fri
evening. High pressure ridging will then prevail across the
northern waters Sat and strengthen Sat night through Mon, leading
to fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas nearly basin-wide.
The next cold front may move into the waters off Florida Mon
night.
$$
Lewitsky
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