Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 110315
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon May 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0305 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between 
broad western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower 
pressure in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong 
trades along with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean 
Sea during the next several days. These trades are forecast to 
reach near-gale to gale-force tonight off northwest Colombia with
seas building to a peak of 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 21W, south
of 10N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed south of 05N and between 20W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 57W, south of 
10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is enhancing
convection in NE South America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 12N16W to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to
04N20W and then from 02N22W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 05N and between 25W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is producing widespread cloudiness, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western and northern
Gulf waters. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends
westward into the Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 3-5 ft south of 25N and between 86W and 93W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front will move off the Texas coast early Mon
morning, with thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will move SE
and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then
stall over the far SE basin Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to
locally strong SE winds will pulse tonight and Mon night
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a surface trough moves 
offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about expected gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight.

Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. The
subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to near gale-
force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, a tight gradient between strong high pressure 
centered over the north Atlantic and low pressure over NW 
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean 
through Fri night, except Wed when winds are forecast to be 
moderate to fresh. However, gale-force NE winds are forecast to
pulse tonight offshore Colombia. In the Gulf of Honduras, E to SE
winds will pulse at night tonight and Mon night. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trades are forecast across the eastern Caribbean through
the period with moderate or weaker winds prevailing elsewhere.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft and a weak surface trough result in scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 74W. The remainder of
the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an extensive
subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft south o 25N and west of 40W. Moderate to fresh N-NE
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found east of 40W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is expected to reach
the waters off NE Florida Mon and move eastward while weakening 
Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will 
follow the front before it weakens and conditions improve Tue 
night. Along and ahead of the front, thunderstorms, some strong, 
are expected. Starting mid-week, high pressure building over the 
central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and 
moderate to rough seas E of 70W. 

$$
Delgado