Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191708
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue May 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 24W has 
weakened and dissipated, and thus has been removed from the 1200 
UTC surface analysis.

An Atlantic tropical wave along 60W is approaching the Windward
Islands S of 16N, and is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted mainly behind this wave, S of 09N between 50W
and 60W. 

The Caribbean tropical wave previously analyzed near 85W has moved
inland over central America, and is now analyzed at 87W with the
south end of the wave axis extending into the Pacific. Please see
the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific for 
information on this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W, then runs southwestward to 05N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 00N to 05N between 23W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the
Gulf waters forcing fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of a 
line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in the Florida
Straits. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions dominate 
the basin, although some weakening thunderstorms are ongoing in
the far W/NW Gulf waters along the coasts of TX and NE Mexico.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United 
States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the
Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to 
strong each evening through Wed night offshore the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Beginning on Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and 
tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring in
the far SW Caribbean, as the eastern extension of the East 
Pacific monsoon trough reaches across the basin along 10N. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing 
across the Windward Passage as well as the waters near Hispaniola 
and Cuba. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high 
near Bermuda and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades 
across the central to SW Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. 
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern 
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The remainder of the Caribbean
is seeing gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to 
strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several 
days. Fresh to strong trades will also occur over the Gulf of 
Honduras today and tonight before weakening tomorrow. Large E to 
SE swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters today and 
tonight before diminishing tomorrow.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection NE of the Bahamas and scattered 
showers across the southern Bahamas are associated with a weak 
surface trough and upper level low in the region. To the east, a 
cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N43W and extends to
29N64W. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally 
fresh N to NE winds behind the front. Otherwise, subtropical 
ridging dominates, resulting in fresh to locally strong trades and
moderate seas prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 23N. 
Areas N of 23N and away from any aforementioned features are 
seeing gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low will continue to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along a surface 
trough to the east of the Bahamas through Thu. SE winds will pulse
fresh to strong north of Hispaniola afternoons into the evenings 
for the next several days. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of our
waters should cause winds and seas to remain quiescent through 
the weekend.

$$
Adams