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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241553
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest-AL95): A broad 1016 mb area
of low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles east-
southeast of Bermuda near 30.5N60.5W continues to show signs of
organization. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 20N to 31N between 48W and 61W. Fresh to strong winds
are noted mainly on the NE side of the low, north of 29N between
55W and 61W where seas are 5 to locally 8 ft just north of the
area. Additional development of the low is possible, and this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
during the next couple of days while it moves northward and north-
northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours
and through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has emerged off the west
coast of Africa near 18W south of 22N, moving westward 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 17N between 15W and 25W. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter portions of the week while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41.5W south
of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Please refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section below for details on any nearby convection as
it is elongated along the ITCZ axis.
A Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters tropical wave has its axis
along 59W south of 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection
near the wave is limited however some isolated to widely scattered
showers near the axis are possible.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W south of 21N across
central portions of the Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 17N to 18.5N between 69W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 14.5N17W and continues west-soutwhestward to 12N33W.
The ITCZ extends from 12N133W to 10N40W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 08N42W to along the coast of northern South
America to 06N50W, with another segment to the west just inland of
the Caribbean coast. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between
33W and 54W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak surface ridging that is anchored by a 1017 mb high center
located near 26N89W is generally allowing for anticyclonic light
to gentle winds across the basin, except moderate in the eastern
Bay of Campeche to the western Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of slight
state remain over the basin per buoy observations. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined the Bay of
Campeche south of 21N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over
portions of the N-central and NE Gulf due to a weak low level
trough.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge building
westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas this week. A surface trough
will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula in the early evenings through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
continues to allow for fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW
Venezuela and northern Colombia. Seas up to 7 ft are with these
trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere
from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas
elsewhere, except slight north of 20N in the lee of Cuba.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
09N to 15N between 78.5W and 85W including over portions of
northern Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and low pressure in northern South America will
continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough
seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside
from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the
basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following
passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will
quickly move west across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical
cyclone formation, and on a tropical wave that has recently
emerged off Africa.
A couple of weak surface troughs are analyzed off the coast of the
SE United States and Florida with isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N between 73W and
79W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted from the southern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the approach to the Windward
Passage with low level troughing in place. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Slight to
moderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W.
Another pair of weak surface troughs are in the NE portion of the
basin from near the Canary Islands westward as the remnants of an
old frontal boundary. No significant convection is noted near
these features. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Winds are
mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure of 1016 mb
centered near 29N62W is producing scattered moderate convection
and strong winds E of its center to about 52W. This low is
expected to move N and out of the area by tonight, and is showing
signs of tropical organization. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a short- lived tropical depression or
storm could form during the next couple of days well E of Bermuda.
Regardless of development, conditions will improve over area
waters by Tue as the system moves away. Elsewhere,moderate to
fresh trades will prevail S of 23N, with slightly higher winds
pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most
westward across the far southern waters this week.
$$
Lewitsky
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