Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 061617
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Mar 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force 
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through early next
week. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during 
the overnight hours through Sat night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are 
expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 11N15W, then extends southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 
00S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N 
between 17W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed over western Gulf from 24N92W to 
20N95W. Outside of a few shallow showers along the northern 
portion of the trough axis, there is no notable convection 
associated with this feature. Across the basin, moderate to fresh 
E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad 
ridge southwestward into the Gulf through early next week. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico 
will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, 
pusling to fresh to strong near the northern Yucatan in the 
evenings. Seas will be slight to moderate through the forecast 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

Fresh to strong trades and rough seas to 12ft are noted in the 
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas 
offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
dominate the eastern Caribbean with moderate to locally fresh 
winds and moderate seas over the northwestern Caribbean, 
including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are 
filtering through the Windward Passage from the Atlantic. 

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will prevail north of 
the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force 
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through early next
week. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during 
the overnight hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds 
will pulse in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through 
Sat evening. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will 
pulse at night through Sun night, then moderate to fresh 
thereafter. Rough seas in fresh easterly trade wind swell over the
tropical N Atlantic will continue through Tue. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1035 mb 
high pressure located northeast of the Azores, and a 1029 mb high
pressure situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. Under the influence
of this ridge, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough 
seas are observed in both scatterometer and altimeter passes this 
morning across much of the waters south of 25N. Moderate or weaker
NE to E winds and moderate seas dominate the area north of 25N. 
With the exception of fresh to strong NE winds noted from northern
Morocco to just north of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southern 
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected 
elsewhere across the region.

$$
Nepaul