Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 162150
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwest N Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure is forecast to 
develop along a frontal boundary, extending from 31N49.5W to 
25.5N60.5W where it continues southwestward to the Turks and 
Caicos near eastern Cuba as a stationary front, over the far NE 
offshore zones on Thu. Gale force winds are expected in the NW 
quadrant of the low center Thu through Fri as it lifts N of the 
forecast region, along with building very rough seas. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more information this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and 
continues southwestward to 04.5N11W. The ITCZ extends from 
04.5N11W to 03.5N35W to offshore of northern Brazil at 02N47W. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01N
to 07N between Africa and South America. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 24W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1026 mb is over the southern border of Alabama
and Georgia, controlling conditions across the Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida
due to a diffuse surface trough near 87W, locally strong near the
Straits. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of
the waters. Seas are 5-8 ft in the SE Gulf, 4-7 ft elsewhere S of
26N in residual NE swell, and 2-5 ft N of 26N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across 
the SE waters, including the Straits of Florida, will gradually 
decrease by early Wed. A ridge will dominate the Gulf region 
through Thu, with winds veering to the S and SW ahead of the next 
cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf Wed evening. This 
front will reach from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri evening, then 
begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica
with scattered moderate convection noted inland and just offshore
Nicaragua, as well as offshore of northern Honduras. Similar
convection is over the remainder of the SW Caribbean due to
the combination of low-level convergence of the trade winds along
with instability provided by the close proximity of the eastern 
Pacific Ocean monsoon trough that extends eastward across southern
Costa Rica and across Panama.

A frontal system just N of the basin has allowed for a slightly 
weaker pressure gradient than normal with moderate to fresh winds 
in the central Caribbean, highest offshore northern Colombia with 
1009 mb low pressure near the coast, and moderate to fresh trades 
elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 5-8 ft in the S-central portion, 
and 3-6 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 ft N of 17N between 64W and 84W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas will prevail over the south-central 
Caribbean through Thu as high pressure shifts eastward into the 
western Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds 
and rough seas in large E swell will persist over the tropical 
Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the 
eastern part of the basin through Thu night. High pressure will 
strengthen north of the basin Fri into the weekend to bring a 
return to fresh to strong trades across the central and southwest 
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on a
developing Gale Warning in the Southwest N Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N49.5W to 25.5N60.5W where it
continues southwestward to the Turks and Caicos near eastern Cuba
as a stationary front. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted S of 27N
and W of the front, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere W of
the front. Seas of 8-12 ft in NW-N swell is noted W of the front
to 77W, with 5-8 ft offshore northern Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 300 nm NW of the front. Strong 1030 mb
high pressure is noted just N of the eastern Atlantic waters near
33N23W with a ridge reaching SW of the high and ahead of the front
to 25N55W. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and the
ITCZ supports a large area and fetch of fresh to strong winds S of
25N and E of 60W with resultant 8-12 ft seas. Fresh to strong
winds are noted S of 31N to the and through the Canary Islands to
the E of 20W with gale-force N of 31N offshore of the Iberian
Peninsula, supporting seas of 8-16 ft. Refer to the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast listed on their website at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. Mainly moderate winds 
and 5-8 ft seas are across the remainder of the waters which is 
primarily between the front and the ridge axis. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 30N50W to 
near 26N60W where it becomes a stationary front that continues SW 
across the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail north
of the front to about 28N, and these winds will generally persist
through Wed before diminishing. Large N swell will continue to 
build across the regional waters behind the front through tonight 
before subsiding. The front will remain nearly stationary, 
extending from 26N55W to near 21N70W by Wed morning. A low 
pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary, and 
over the far NE offshore zones on Thu. Gale force winds are 
expected in the NW quadrant of the low center Thu through Fri as 
it lifts N of the forecast region. The next cold front will move 
into the NW waters Fri, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of 
Florida Sat morning, and from 31N55W to the central Bahamas on Sun
morning. Another cold front may move off NE Florida by Sun night.

$$
Lewitsky