Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150410
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jul 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 15N and east of 27W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 09N35W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N35W to 04N52W. See the Tropical Waves section
for details on the convection near these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stalled frontal boundary draped across the southern and 
southeastern United States, from eastern Texas to off the Georgia
coast. An east to west upper trough across this same area is 
combining with plenty of low level moisture and diurnal heating to
support scattered moderate isolated strong convection across much
of the northern Gulf waters north of 25N. The strongest convection
is found in the NE Gulf waters. Similar storms are see in the
eastern Bay of Campeche.

Outside of convection, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida 
and into the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to 
fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas off Yucatan and in the Bay of 
Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the 
area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern 
Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, 
and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between the persistent subtropical 
Atlantic ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern
South America continue to support strong to near gale-force 
easterly winds and rough locally rough seas in the south-central 
Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up
to 32 kt. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas 
are occurring in the remainder of the central Caribbean. Meanwhile,
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in 
the eastern Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and the Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent. 

Divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough and 
abundant tropical moisture continue to support scattered moderate 
to strong convection covers the area between west of Jamaica and 
south of 20N. The strongest storms are along the NE coasts of 
Honduras and Nicaragua. These storms can produce gusty winds to
near gale-force, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will
support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central
Caribbean through the remainder of the week and weekend. Rough
seas will prevail with these winds. East winds will pulse fresh
to locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and
Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary frontal boundary extends from the central Atlantic to
the coast of Georgia, within 30N to 32N. Scattered showers are
noted north of 27N and between 55W and 65W. Moderate to locally
fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present in those waters.
Convection is suppressed elsewhere across much of the basin due to
a large plume of Saharan dust and mid-latitude dry air.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists across the basin,
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE
Bahamas and between 70W and 77W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and
west of 35W to the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far eastern
Atlantic, fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are
evident south of 10N and east of 27W. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will 
support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds 
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night 
offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
Delgado