Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 062158
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean 
through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region 
will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and
accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at 
night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at 
times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 19W south 20N. Scattered to numerous 
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 20W and 25W.


A second tropical wave is along 39W S of 20N, and moving west at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N 
between 34W and 40W.

A third tropical wave is along 52W S of 20N, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at 
this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near Dakar and continues southwestward to near 11N35W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N40W to the coast of Venezuela near 09.5N61W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
limited convective activity is noted elsewhere. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak ridging extends from the western Atlantic to the west-central
Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
across the Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft over the southwest Gulf and 1-3
ft elsewhere. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving off
the Florida coast north of Tampa Bay into the far northeast Gulf.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active elsewhere north of
the Yucatan Channel, and off the coast of Veracruz.
 
For the forecast, the surface ridging will dominate across most 
of the Gulf through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to 
SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh 
winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into 
the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from 
the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf, locally strong tonight. 
Slight to moderate seas are forecast for this portion of the basin
through Tue night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high located near Bermuda
and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades
over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, 
along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades
are elsewhere over the E Caribbean, the Gulf of Honduras and in 
the lee side of Cuba. Seas are generally moderate. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active from Jamaica to Grand Cayman
to the coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, the ridge north of the region will shift 
southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and 
accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela to near gale- force speed and to gale-force speed at 
night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at 
times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through 
the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse 
to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies 
will prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off the central
Bahamas, and along a surface trough reaching from north of the
central Bahamas southward toward eastern Cuba. Farther north, 1027
mb high pressure is centered near Bermuda. Recent scatterometer
satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong E winds on the northern
end of the trough from 25N to 28N between 70W and 75W. A
concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed rough seas to 10 ft in
this area as well. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 5-7 ft
seas prevail elsewhere west of of 65W. Farther east, fresh to 
strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted across the Canary
Islands and off Western Sahara. Gentle to moderate easterly flow
and 4-6 ft seas are noted over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will induce 
additional shower and thunderstorm activity across the Florida 
seaboard and offshores Fri morning before shifting west of the 
area Fri night into early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the
surface trough will bring fresh to locally strong winds and rough
seas across the Bahamas offshores through tonight. Fresh E winds 
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward
Passage through the period, reaching strong speeds Sun night, Mon
night, and Tue night as the Bermuda High shifts southward.

$$
Christensen