Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 230611
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has it axis along 21W, south of 16N. The wave is 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 01N to 16N between 13W and 29W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 15N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant deep convection is 
occurring at this time in association with the wave.

A tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south of 16N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 06N to 11N between 49W and 59W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 81W, south of 18N, moving 
westward at 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring at 
this time in association with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues
SW to 06N26W to 04N35W. See the tropical waves section for
information about convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the offshore waters SW of the
Tampa Bay area contributing toward moderate or weaker winds 
E of 89W while a tighter pressure gradient with low pressure over
Mexico supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds W of 89W. Seas 
are 1-3 ft over the eastern half of the Gulf and moderate to 6 ft
in the western half of the basin. Otherwise, scattered showers are
ongoing over the Bay of Campeche and over the northern Yucatan
peninsula adjacent waters associated with a surface trough coming
off the peninsula into the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure south of the Florida Panhandle 
will dominate the Gulf through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to 
E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula nightly through Tue 
night, then mainly fresh afterward. A moderate pressure gradient 
will maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western 
and south-central Gulf through early Tue morning before 
diminishing to gentle to moderate by late Tue morning. Slight to 
moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with 
slight seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf through the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a broad ridge N of the area
extending to the northern Caribbean and a 1008 mb Colombian Low 
is forcing strong to near gale-force NE to E winds over the 
central Caribbean and fresh trades over the Gulf of Honduras. 
Seas offshore Colombia are the highest in the 10 to 13 ft range
while 8 to 10 ft seas are elsewhere in the central basin. Over 
the E Caribbean, the trades are moderate to fresh and seas are 
moderate to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also observed in
the Windward Passage with 5 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. Otherwise, heavy
showers are offshore eastern Panama and Colombia associated with
the E Pacific monsoon. Scattered showers are ongoing in the Gulf
of Honduras associated with a surface trough coming off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge of high pressure will 
prevail north of the area near 29N. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong 
trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central basin 
through Wed morning. These winds are expected to peak at near-gale
force offshore of northwestern Colombia, south of 14N tonight and
Tue night. For Wed and Thu, fresh to strong trades should 
confined to the south-central basin before expanding northward 
again on Fri. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly. 
Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of
the Caribbean through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores 
High near 34N38W to about 17N across the Atlantic. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon 
trough is forcing a large area of moderate to fresh trades south 
of 22N. North of Hispaniola, however, the trades are fresh to 
strong. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to
moderate.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
western Atlantic through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades 
with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles until 
Wed morning, then moderate winds and seas afterward. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected off 
northern Hispaniola each night through Sat night. Moderate or 
lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 

$$
Ramos