Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 100959
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun May 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0955 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure 
well north of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern 
South America will lead to gale force winds off northwest Colombia 
through early this morning and then again on tonight along with 
rough seas. This gradient will weaken some early this week as a 
cold front moves into the western Atlantic allowing for the 
pulsing gale conditions to end Mon. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 18W,
south of 11N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is evident near the trough axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 53W,
south of 10N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is present near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N19W to 00N30W and to 01S46W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted south of 08N and between 30W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche, western and northern Gulf
waters. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are
occurring north of Yucatan and off SE Texas. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to strong speeds near the 
Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through tonight. A cold front 
will move into the northern Gulf waters early Mon morning, and 
reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, 
followed by moderate to locally strong N to NE winds. Fresh NW 
winds are expected off Veracruz Mon night into Tue morning. 
Scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are 
possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the 
Gulf Tue night into Wed as the front weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features for information on an
ongoing gale warning for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the gale warning, the pressure gradient between broad 
high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics results in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds 
and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high 
pressure system over the N Atlantic and lower pressures in the 
deep tropics will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through late next 
week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours 
through tonight, these winds are expected to reach gale-force off
NW Colombia. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and 
rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through 
Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the 
remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, 
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and
west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh 
NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 are noted south of 25N and east of 55W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the much of
the basin, supporting fresh to locally strong winds off northern 
Hispaniola through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front is 
expected to reach the waters off NE Florida late Mon and move 
eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong 
winds and rough seas will follow the front, diminishing quickly 
Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to 
marginally severe, are possible near the front. Building ridge 
over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S 
winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W late next week.

$$
Delgado