Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 040900
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1031 
mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower
pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- 
force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- 
force winds are expected from 04/1500 to 05/0000 UTC with severe 
gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions 
will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the 
Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave was analyzed near 17W south
of 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 06N to 09N between 13W and 18W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 13N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough 
axis. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 08N to 11N between 47W and 55W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the
Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing the shower and 
thunderstorm activity across NE South America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 02N to 05N between 21W and 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front extends from southern Florida to SE 
Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 27N89W to the eastern 
Bay of Campeche. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces
fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are 
present across the southeast Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and plenty of 
tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf waters, east of 90W. 
 
For the forecast, pressure is falling over the
central Gulf along the trough, and low pressure weak may form 
later today near 26N90W even as the front dissipates. This will 
enhance the strong winds and rough seas over the north-central 
Gulf this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, scattered 
thunderstorms will continue today over the south-central and 
southeast Gulf, south of the front. Winds and seas will diminish 
starting Fri as the low dissipates to a remnant trough as it moves
onshore over southwest Louisiana, and as a ridge builds from the 
western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. Looking ahead, this 
pattern will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight 
to moderate seas into early next week, except for occasionally 
fresh to strong pulses off northwest Yucatan during the evenings. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure system centered 
southwest of the Azores southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, 
supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in 
the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern 
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean, while 
fast- moving showers are passing across the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and
shift east through Thu, allowing moderate to locally fresh trade
winds and moderate seas to dominate much of the the Caribbean by
Fri morning. The exception will be pulsing fresh to strong winds
off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild north
of the area by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas 
across the central and northwestern Caribbean by Sun night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the far northeast Atlantic.

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near 32N71W to 
the central Bahamas and southern Florida. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are present along of the front. Moderate to 
fresh N-NE winds and rough seas in NE swell are found behind the 
front. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are evident wihtin
240 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. In the remainder of the 
tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated by ridging 
centered around a 1031 mb high located at 34N33W, leading to 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally 
rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will stall today 
then dissipate Fri into Sat, as high pressure builds across the 
area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft 
seas into early next week.

$$
Christensen