Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 091020
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 15N to 05N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, from 15N to 05N, moving 
westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W, from 16N to 05N, moving 
westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in 
the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is along 81W, south of 18N to 10N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting 
with a mid-level trough, which is enhancing convection. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 
75W and 83W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N15W  
to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 04N51W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 240 nm N of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high pressure centered over the NW Atlantic. A surface trough
is analyzed from 30N84W to 25N83W. Scattered showers are noted
in the vicinity of the trough N of 25N and E of 90W. To the SW,
another trough is analyzed from 22N91W to 19N92W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection prevails across the Bay of
Campeche W if the trough and S of 20N. Moderate to fresh E to SE 
winds prevail over the Gulf waters W of 87W along with 3 to 6 ft 
seas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail elsewhere along 
with slight seas.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf region through the week, supporting gentle to moderate east 
to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh 
winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. 
The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal 
trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to 
speeds during the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low 
pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay
of Campeche, on Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous 
showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and 
building seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge, a tropical
wave with axis along 79W, and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern 
Pacific, offshore of Nicaragua, supports fresh to strong E to SE 
winds with moderate seas in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf 
of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned conditions will likely last 
through the forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low 
pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay
of Campeche perhaps later Thu through Fri night, maintaining a 
tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate 
seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 27N73W to 23N75W. Another trough is
analyzed from 31N62W to 27N70W. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are near and E of second trough mainly W of 57W. 
High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N 
of 20N, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered SW of the Azores near
36N34W. Moderate or weaker winds are N of 20N and W of 50W, 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 35W and 50W while 
fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere E of 35W along with rough 
seas to 10 ft. Across the tropical Atlantic waters, winds are 
moderate to fresh and seas moderate to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will 
remain nearly stationary through midweek. A weak cold front will 
move across the N waters Tue, then move very slowly or stall on 
Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of 
the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of
the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending 
toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure 
gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in 
unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western 
section of the basin during the week. 

$$
ERA