Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241034
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea 
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N26W. The ITCZ 
extends from 00N26W to 02S40W to 00S50W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 10N between 06W
and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08S to 04N between
25W and 38W, and from 02S to 12N W of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered to isolated showers continue to move eastward away from
the Florida Straits this morning while dense fog was repored over
the NW Gulf offshore waters. A 1019 mb high NE of the northern
Bahamas extends a ridge across Florida and into the western Gulf.
A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, satellite
images indicate that smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico 
is affecting the SW Gulf waters. Mariners may experience 
diminished visibility in the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. 
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas 
basin-wide through Mon. The exception will be off the Yucatan 
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to 
fresh during the evenings. Southeasterly winds are forecast to 
reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of Gulf Mon 
night into mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the lee
side of central and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage 
due to the tail of a dissipating stationary front that extends
across Hispaniola to the offshore waters of southern Cuba.
Otherwise, a 1019 mb high is NE of the northern Bahamas and is 
supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
basin-wide. 

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will 
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal 
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, 
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This 
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire 
basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over 
the central and eastern Caribbean Mon night through mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N39W to 26N47W where it becomes
a dissipating stationary front to Hispaniola near 19N69W. The
front is supporting scattered showers in the Great Bahama Bank
while an area of showers continue to migrate from the Florida
Straits to the northern Bahamas. Between the front and the areas
of showers is a 1019 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas, which is
supporting moderate or lighter E to SE winds and slight to 
moderate seas across the SW N Atlantic waters. Another 1019 mb
high is E of the front over the E subtropical Atlantic waters,
which is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front
to 30W and N of 26N. Seas with these winds are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate
to fresh NNE winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands, 
and the coast of NW Africa with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will 
dissipate today and the remnant moisture will lift northward as a 
trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along the trough 
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast 
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are 
expected beginning today as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun.

$$
Ramos