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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;176957
AXNT20 KNHC 221007
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1005 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic
along 15W, south of 17N, based on recent satellite imagery,
total precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 02N to 10N and east of 28W.
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W,
south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 04N to 10N and between
32W and 42W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W, south of
16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is
observed near this tropical wave.
A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south
of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are evident near
the trough axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 05N30W and
to 03N41W. Please read the Tropical Waves section.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores extends a
ridge to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin this week.
Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will pulse off Yucatan
nightly during the first half of the week. Meanwhile, a moderate
pressure gradient will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds
over the western and central Gulf through late tonight before
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas
will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will
be over the eastern Gulf through the week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The aforementioned subtropical ridge supports fresh to strong
easterly trade winds and moderate to roughnseas over much of the
Caribbean south, especially south of 18N. The strongest winds and
highest seas are found off NW Colomia. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present in the SW
Caribbean.
For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge north of the islands will
force fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much
of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. The trade winds are
expected to increase to near gale across the central portion of
the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting tonight
through Tue night and then late in the week. Seas are expected to
build to around 13 ft with these winds. Lastly, fresh to locally
strong easterly winds and seas to 9 ft are also forecast east of
the Lesser Antilles during much of this week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to locally
strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 22N and
east of 30W. Farther east, fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of
6-9 ft are found from 17N to 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
region through the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly fresh
to locally strong speeds off northern Hispaniola and seas may
build up to 8 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere.
$$
Delgado
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