Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 260550
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the
Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia and over the
Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force Fri night through
early Sat morning, and possible on Sat night again. Seas under 
these winds are expected to range from 12 to 15 ft north of 
Colombia and 4 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please refer to 
High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W 
from 10N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 23W and 31W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 16N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 08N to 15N between 38W and 48W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from Haiti southward
to the Colombia-Venezuela border. It is moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the border.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from 19N southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua into Costa Rica. It is moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
over Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then 
curves southwestward to 07N19W. An ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 
04N24W, then from 04N25W westward to near the coastal border of
French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is evident
near the monsoon trough, near the coast of Gambia and southern 
Senegal. Similar convection is noted up to 200 nm along either
side of the second ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection in
the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diurnal trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the southeastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 
surface ridge running southwestward from a 1018 mb high at the 
northeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico dominates much of the
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are found at the
northeastern Gulf, and the western Bay of Campeche. Moderate to 
fresh with locally strong NE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas exist at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E 
to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the 
Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will 
generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern
Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds 
across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking 
ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east- 
central Gulf Mon night and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Warning.

Convergent trade winds are occurring near Jamaica and near the
southern coast of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for 
additional convection in the basin. Tight pressure gradient 
between a broad Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low supports
strong to near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft at the
south-central basin. Fresh to strong easterly trades and 6 to 8 
ft seas dominate the north-central and part of the southwestern
basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are
noted at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle winds
with 1 to 3 ft seas near Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to 
strong easterly trade winds, and moderate to locally very rough 
seas in the central basin through early next week. Elsewhere, 
pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas 
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. 
Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast
in the remainder of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level shortwave near 31N61W is enhancing scattered 
moderate convection north of 25N between 55W and 65W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad Atlantic
Ridge stretching west-southwestward from a 1032 mb high near
34N47W across 31N68W to beyond central Florida is supporting 
gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas, north of 
25N between 35W and the coast of Floria/southern Georgia. From 07N
to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to 
locally fresh ENE to E trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to 
moderate NE to E to SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate 
swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge will 
continue to dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. 
Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are 
expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward
Passage, each late afternoon and night through Fri night. A 
nearly north-to-south aligned surface trough across the central 
Atlantic will shift westward across the region Fri through Sun, 
reaching near 70W by Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and 
lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will 
sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

$$

Chan