Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160408
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 996 mb low 
pressure located near 35N70W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed winds to gale 
force both ahead of and following the front north of 28N, 
embedded in an area of strong to near-gale force conditions north 
of 25N and west of 65W. The front will reach from near Bermuda to
the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning
where it will stall and weaken. Winds will diminish below gale 
force accordingly through early Fri. Elsewhere, widespread fresh 
to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Rough to 
very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind the front 
through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the 
upcoming weekend. 

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends 09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 02N to 04N between 10W and 15W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

1022 mb high pressure is centered over the western Gulf near
24N96W, following a cold front that is now moving through the
northwest Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds across the far eastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida. Moderate N winds extend across the
central and southwest Gulf, and light to gentle breezes are noted
elsewhere over the west-central and northwest Gulf. Rough seas in
the form of northerly swell with 8 to 11 ft wave heights are
noted across much of the southern Gulf, with 5 to 7 ft seas
elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft near the northern Gulf coast.

For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE 
tonight. A reinforcing front will bring a surge of fresh to near-
gale northerly winds and rough to locally very rough seas over the
basin this weekend. Gales are possible off Tampico, Mexico 
Sunday. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon. However, the 
pressure gradient will tighten again Tue into Wed, resulting in 
fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across much of 
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba across the northwest 
Caribbean into central Belize and northern Guatemala. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong N winds
following the front over the northwest Gulf and Yucatan Channel. A
plume of rough seas follows the front as well through the Yucatan
Channel, with buoy 42056 in the northwest Caribbean reporting wave
heights to near 8 ft. Farther east, the subtropical ridge extends
from the western Atlantic to north of Hispaniola. There is enough
of a gradient south of the ridge to support fresh to locally 
strong trade winds across the southern Caribbean south of 15N.
Wave heights in this area are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Gentle to
moderate breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active along and within 90 nm west
of a surface trough reaching from off central Hispaniola to the
central coast of Colombia. 

For the forecast, the front is expected to stall from E Cuba to 
Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may 
tighten later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading 
to increasing winds and building seas across the basin ahead of a 
reinforcing front. A front will arrive in the NW Caribbean early 
next week and the tight pressure gradient behind it will sustain 
fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas during most of
next week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore 
of NW Colombia Fri night, reaching near-gale force at night 
starting Sat night and into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Outside of the area of gales described above in the Special
Features section, a ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic
to north of Hispaniola. Farther east, a broad upper low is
centered near 22N37W. An associated weak surface trough may be 
starting forming along 27N between 20N and 25N. Fresh to strong
winds and 8 to 9 ft seas cover a large area north of 12N and east
of 55W, south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach
from near Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas Fri morning, and from 
31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. 
Widespread fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough 
seas are found ahead and behind of the front. Gale force winds are
occurring north of 29N. These winds will shift eastward through 
Fri, before lifting north of our area Fri afternoon. Seas will 
gradually diminish into the weekend. Another cold front may impact
the basin late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, 
supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas.

$$
Christensen