Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 171723
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jan 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
Gale force winds are expected to develop this evening offshore of
Tampico, Mexico, with gales expanding into the central basin and
western Bay of Campeche overnight, in the wake of a cold front
moving southeastward over the Gulf. Very rough seas peaking near
13 to 15 ft are expected near these winds. Gales will end for most
areas Sun morning, but prevail through the day Sun offshore
Veracruz, Mexico. The hazardous seas will prevail into Sun night,
with conditions improving Mon as high pressure builds southward
into the region. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore 
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras:
Heavy rainfall is expected over the Gulf of Honduras Sun through
the middle of next week as a shear line or pre-frontal trough
interacts with low-level moisture in the region. The heaviest
precipitation is expected on Tue and Wed, with the most persistent
rain leading to totals of 8 to 12 inches over the southwestern
Gulf of Honduras, and local amounts over 12 inches will be
possible. Widespread amounts of 2 to 6 inches are expected over
the rest of the region. Please consult products from local 
meteorological services for additional information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
03N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17.5W to 02N37.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 07N east of 18W, and
from 03N to 05N between 30W and 35W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the 
Gale Warnings in the southwestern basin. 

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30.5N87W to 
northeastern Mexico near 25.5N97W. Scattered showers are noted 
along and ahead of the front in the central and northeastern 
basin. Recent scatterometer satellite data and METAR data show 
fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring in the wake of the 
front, and buoy data over the northwestern Gulf show 8 to 9 ft 
seas are accompanying these winds. Farther south, a surface trough
is noted in the west-central Gulf through the western Bay of 
Campeche, and locally fresh NW winds are noted west of this 
feature offshore of east-central Mexico. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh S to SE winds are noted in the northeastern basin, ahead of 
the cold front. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail 
over the rest of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE 
through the basin this weekend and exit Sun night. Strong to near-
gale force N to NE winds are expected behind the front through 
the weekend, with gales developing late this evening offshore 
Tampico, Mexico, and spreading SE into the central basin and 
western Bay of Campeche overnight. Gales will end for most areas 
Sun morning, but prevail through the day Sun offshore Veracruz, 
Mexico. Rough seas will accompany the strong winds, with very 
rough seas where gales occur. The hazardous seas will prevail into
Sun night, with conditions improving Mon as high pressure builds 
southward into the region. Looking ahead, building high pressure 
over the SE United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds
over most of the Gulf on Tue and Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An increasing pressure gradient between high pressure building 
north of the Caribbean and low pressure over northern Colombia is 
supporting widespread fresh to strong trade winds over the central
and eastern basin, as seen via recent scatterometer satellite 
data. Altimeter satellite data and buoy data show rough seas, 
peaking near 9 ft, over the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally
fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail over the northwestern 
basin. Elsewhere, an E swell over the central Atlantic is 
supporting rough seas of 8 to 9 ft east of the Lesser Antilles and
through the passages into the eastern Caribbean. 

For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central 
Caribbean this weekend, before becoming confined to the south- 
central basin next week, as they are disrupted by a cold front 
entering from the northwest. Offshore Colombia, these trade winds 
will pulse to near gale each night through early next week. The 
aforementioned cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Sun 
night, then stall front central Cuba to Honduras Mon night. This 
will lead to showers and thunderstorms over Honduras and adjacent 
waters early next week, with fresh to strong NE winds behind the 
front through Tue night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A decaying stationary front extends from the central Atlantic 
near 31N56.5W to the southern Bahamas, and recent scatterometer 
data show moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring north and west 
of this feature as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. 
Rough seas occurring in this region are noted via SOFAR buoy data.
Farther west, a surface trough has been analyzed offshore of 
Florida through the Florida Straits, and locally fresh SW winds 
are occurring offshore of northern Florida ahead of a cold front 
moving through the southern U.S. Elsewhere, a 1037 mb high 
building near 34.5N33.5W is supporting fresh to strong NE to E 
winds along the periphery of the ridge, generally north of 15N. 
Rough seas cover much of the open Atlantic as per altimeter data 
and SOFAR data. Farther east, a cold front extends from northwest 
Africa to 25.5N30W, and fresh to strong NE winds and rough to 
locally very rough seas are occurring near this front. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a building Bermuda-Azores High will
enhance the trades up to fresh to locally strong east of 65W for 
the next few days. A cold front will emerge off the SE United 
States coast Sun morning accompanied strong winds north of 27N. 
Winds with the front will diminish on Mon. Looking ahead, building
high pressure over the SE United States on Tue and Wed will boost
NE winds to fresh to strong in the vicinity of the Bahamas and 
Florida Straits.

$$
ADAMS