Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;266945
AXNT20 KNHC 130851
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jan 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of 
Guinea near 10N14W, and extends southwestward to near 07N16W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N26W to 01N34W and to near 
00.5N45W just NE of the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen near the ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 14W and 
45W, and also from 04N to 06N between 45W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across western Cuba to the Yucatan 
Channel to the Yucatan peninsula. Strong to near gale NW winds are
occurring over the SW Gulf off Veracruz, Mexico, with moderate to
fresh N to NE winds over the remainder of the SW Gulf. Mainly
moderate NE winds are across the remainder of the basin, except
gentle in the NW Gulf near the Texas coast. Seas are 2 to 4 ft N
of 28N, 4 to 7 ft N of 23N, and 7 to 10 ft S of 23N, highest off
Veracruz. Scattered showers are confined to the SW and west-
central Gulf zones. 

For the forecast, conditions will improve across the SW Gulf 
today. Otherwise, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across 
the basin through early Wed. The next cold front will move the 
Gulf Wed night into early Thu, followed by increasing winds and 
building seas, with the front shifting quickly southeast of the 
basin Thu evening. Looking ahead, conditions should improve Thu 
night into the weekend as high pressure shifts across the N Gulf. 
A reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds may impact the basin 
late in the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from across W Cuba to the Yucatan 
Channel and the N Yucatan peninsula while gradually dissipating.
A strong and broad surface ridge northeast of the Caribbean 
continues to support fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of
7-9 ft over the south-central portion of the basin. Mostly fresh 
northeast winds are in the Windward Passage and in the lee of 
Cuba. Seas are 4-6 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh
northeast to east winds and seas at 4-6 ft are elsewhere across 
the basin, with the exception of the northwestern Caribbean north 
of 20N, where mostly fresh northeast winds are found. Similar 
winds are over and near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are also 4-6 ft
with these winds, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft in a north 
swell over the waters north of 18N west of 85W, including near and
in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week and into 
the upcoming weekend due to the pressure gradient between high 
pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia. 
Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of 
Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba 
through to night or so. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will 
prevail. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move 
into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, 
and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the 
wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend leading to 
increasing winds across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N63W to the Central Bahamas
and western Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring along and near 
the front. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are behind the 
front, except for a swath of fresh northeast winds within 120 nm
or so immediate to the west of the front. Seas are 6-10 ft behind
the front east of 74W, and 5-7 ft west of 74W. To the east of 
the front, 1027 mb high pressure is analyzed near 34N37W with an
associated ridge stretching SW-W across the northern discussion
waters ahead of the front. A large area of moderate to fresh,
locally strong, NE-E trades is found south of 26N and east of 55W.
Seas are 6-9 ft with these winds. A cold front is to the NE
reaching from near the Iberian Peninsula to the Canaray Islands.
Rough to very rough swells are found behind the front to 40W,
along with moderate to fresh winds. Winds are moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
31N63W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will linger today, 
then dissipate tonight. High pressure will build eastward off of 
the SE coast of the United States behind the front. A strong pre- 
frontal trough will emerge off the coast of NE Florida Wed morning
and quickly move eastward, accompanied by fresh to strong winds 
with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. Looking 
ahead, the next cold front will enter the NW waters Thu morning, 
reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and 
extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall 
and weaken.

$$
Lewitsky