Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 310451
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW
South America will support strong to near gale-force winds and 
rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next several days.
A scatterometer pass from 0106 UTC confirmed gale-force winds
occurring in the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will increase to gale- 
force in the offshore waters of Colombia tonight. Seas are 
expected to build to around 14 ft with these winds. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website - https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHFSAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern to central Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south 
of 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 08N to 11N between 33W and 37W.

A tropical wave has been relocated to near 56W, south of 20N and 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 12N to 15N between 54W and 58W.

An western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 20N 
and moving quickly westward at around 15-20 kt. Any nearby 
convection is currently observed in the far eastern Tropical 
Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from the northern coast of 
Mauritania at 21N16W to 08N30W and then to 12N42W. The ITCZ 
extends from 12N42W to 13N57W. In addition to the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is occurring along the W coast of Africa, and also from
065B to 08N between 28W and 32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1016 mb is remaining over the central Gulf near
26N86W within a broad ridge. As a result, gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas prevail across the Gulf. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring in the far NE Gulf, generated by a frontal
boundary N of the region. Isolated moderate convection is also
occurring ahead of a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to 
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be 
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula 
nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend as a frontal 
boundary remains just N of the area, and a very moist and unstable
airmass prevails over region. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale-
force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 12 ft 
occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and
moderate seas are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N. Across the 
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
locally moderate seas prevail. Some convection is present near
eastern Honduras and Nicaragua due to the proximity of a tropical
wave and lower to mid level support.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect tonight for the 
offshore waters of Colombia and for the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas 
are expected to build to around 14 ft with these winds. Elsewhere 
across the central Caribbean, fresh to near-gale trades will 
continue to expand in coverage through early Fri as the pressure 
gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in 
northern Colombian tightens. Mostly fresh trades will continue 
elsewhere south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast 
period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras 
tonight and Fri night, then to fresh speeds for the remainder of 
the period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is just north of the discussion waters. 
Associated scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north 
of 27N and west of 70W. Fresh to near gale force SW winds and 5 
to 9 ft seas are in this region as well, highest winds and seas in
areas of convection. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is
analyzed from 29N54W to 21N58W. Upper level divergence in the 
same region as this trough is leading to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms generally from 20N to 30N between 50W and 60W. 
Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate much of
the tropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh trades 
are noted north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N, except 
fresh to strong N to NE winds from offshore Africa to the Cabo 
Verde Islands, as well as along the northern coast of Hispaniola 
and immediately east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6 to 9 ft 
across the areas of fresh to strong winds. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge extending from near
25N65W to the Straits of Florida will change little through Sat 
night before it shifts northward to near 28N into early next week.
The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of 
the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW 
winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N 
and west of 65W for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 
Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at 
night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend. 

$$ 
Adams