Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 300950
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, from 02N to 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of 10N between 28W-33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are seen from 07N to 13N between 46W and 57W.

An eastern to central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south
of 20N near Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving 
westward at around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is seen 
near this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 19N16W 
to 13N38W. The ITCZ extends from 13N38W to 13N49W where it is 
broken by a tropical wave. Aside from the convection described
in the section above, no significant convection is noted along
these boundaries at this time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A persistent surface trough is from near Naples, Florida to the 
eastern Gulf near 26N87W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
are noted N of 26N and E of 86W. Otherwise, 1015 mb high pressure
near 26N89W controls the basin with gentle to moderate or weaker 
winds prevailing across much of the Gulf and away from areas of 
convection, except for the SW Gulf where a surface trough is 
driving moderate to fresh E winds. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the 
basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula
nightly into the weekend. A trough extends from Tampa, Florida
to 26N86W, while a mid to upper level broad trough north of the
area is slowly advancing southward toward a very moist and
unstable Gulf airmass. This set-up will maintain scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the NE Gulf through the
rest of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper level feature is supporting moderate convection in
the NW Caribbean just southeast of the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise,
high pressure at the surface over the central Atlantic and low
pressure over northern Colombia supports the typical fresh to 
strong trades across the basin from 11N to 18N including the Gulf
of Honduras, except near gale force near northern Colombia. 
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from 
10N to 18N to the east of 80W, and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere 
except lower in the lee of Cuba. Seas are locally 8-10 ft offshore
N Colombia.

For the forecast, the coverage area and strength of the trades will
continue increasing today as the pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low increases. Expect fresh to 
strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern
and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds to near gale, or 
possible brief gusts to gale and highest seas offshore Colombia. 
Fresh winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly 
through Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas.
Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of
our waters supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
N of 28N and W of 75W. The remainder of the basin is under the 
influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high
pressure system near 31N51W. 

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and frontal
trough support fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft 
north of 28N and west of 65W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds 
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough to 20N and west of 40W, with strong E winds E of the 
Lesser Antilles to about 60W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh 
to strong N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident from 15N
to 30N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
ridge farther south than usual, roughly along 25N, through Fri. 
This, in combination with a frontal trough over the western 
Atlantic, will support fresh to strong SW winds along with 
scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and 
west of 65W for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will
pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings 
through the upcoming weekend. 

$$
ERA