Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 242302
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low pressure located in 
the NW Gulf near 28N95.5W will deepen as it tracks NE into 
Louisiana by early Sun. The associated cold front will move SE 
across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing
arctic high pressure behind the front is expected to produce 
near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun 
night, gale force winds over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun 
night into Mon morning, and gales over the waters offshore 
Veracruz Mon and Mon night. Seas are expected to quickly build 
across the basin starting Sun reaching 16 or 17 ft over the SW 
Gulf late on Mon. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE 
Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and 
high pressure builds across the region. Mariners are advised to 
keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 01N25W to 02N40W to 
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 06N
between 15W and 21W. Similar convective activity is near 06N35W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A warm front extends from N Florida westward to a 1012 mb low 
pressure located near 28N95.5W. A strong arctic cold front 
extends from the low center southward to inland Texas near 
Brownsville. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the low
center and N of the warm front W of 90W. This convective activity
is affecting southern Louisiana. Fresh to strong easterly winds
are N of the front W of 90W based on scatterometer data with seas
of 3 to 5 ft. South of the front W of 90W, moderate to fresh SE 
to S winds with moderate seas are W of 90W while gentle to 
moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas are E of 90W. 

For the forecast, the low pressure will deepen as it tracks NE 
into Louisiana by early Sun. The associated cold front will move 
SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Please, see
the Special Features section for more information about these
features.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to
locally fresh trades across most of the basin, with seas of 3 to
5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near the coast of Colombia. A surface 
trough is analyzed over eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This trough is 
generating some convective activity over eastern Cuba. Patches of
low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving 
across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. 
Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic is bringing seas of 6 
to 8 ft across the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, broad high pressure over the east central 
Atlantic will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and 
central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters 
through early next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia 
pulse to strong at night through Sun, then to near gale force 
afterward into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic
will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering to
8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening to a shearline Thu. 
Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly 
diminishing to mostly fresh speeds on Wed, and increasing back 
to fresh to strong on Thu as stronger high pressure builds 
southward toward the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda westward to inland north 
Florida just N of Cape Canaveral, FL. A surface trough is 
analyzed E of the front and runs from 31N60W to just E of the NW
Bahamas. Some shower activity is associated with trough. The 
cold front, that yesterday crossed the Canary Islands has 
dissipated, but lingering N swell, with seas of 12 to 16 ft  
persists near the Canary Islands. High pressure of 1030 mb 
located W of the Madeira Islands near 31N24W dominates the 
remainder of the forecast region. Under this weather pattern, 
a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is noted from 10N 
to 25N E of 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N 
to 23N between 30W and 50W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are within these 
winds. Moderate to fresh trades are occurring from 10N to 20N W 
of 50W to the Lesser Antilles. An altimeter pass indicates seas
of 8 to 9 ft just NE of the Leeward Islands. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. A band of transverse 
high clouds associated with very strong southwesterly winds aloft
persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from NE South 
America all the way to W Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough and ridge will shift 
slowly NE through tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will 
develop over the NW forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon 
in advance of a strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move 
offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale force 
will develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach
from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon 
evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue 
evening, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N51W to 26N60W then
stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Wed afternoon. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of 
the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon, becoming mostly 
fresh NE winds Tue night and Wed within about 180 nm NW of the 
frontal boundary. The frontal boundary will become nearly 
stationary from near 29N55W to 25N66W and to near 20N70W by late 
Thu as another strong cold front moves over the NW forecast 
waters.

$$
GR