Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 021605
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present from
07N to 12N and between 28W and 36W.

A tropical wave has been repositioned along 61W, south of 17N,
based on surface observations, satellite and wave guidance data.
The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted south of 14N and between 58W and 64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are seen near the northern
portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low
pres near 14N27W and then to 10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10N45W
to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 
12N between east of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends across
the Florida Straits into the Gulf waters and along with a frontal
boundary to the north, sustain moderate to fresh westerly winds
and moderate seas north of 27N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight seas prevail. The aforementioned frontal boundary and
an upper-level trough over the eastern United States maintain
unstable conditions across the area, producing scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms over the northern half of the Gulf. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that stronger winds
are occurring near the stronger convection.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in
control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle 
to moderate winds into the upcoming week. The exceptions will be 
fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan 
peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern 
Gulf, where an inland cold front will induce moderate to fresh W 
to SW winds through Mon. Scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are expected over the eastern Gulf, and over the 
central Gulf N of 25N between 87W and 90W into the upcoming week 
as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the northern Caribbean waters, especially
near Puerto Rico, eastern Hispaniola and south of eastern Cuba. A
few showers are also seen in the SW Caribbean. The westward-
building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the 
central Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and 
rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean
will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin through
much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, near 
79W is accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms between 
Jamaica and eastern Cuba and near the Windward Passage. The wave 
will continue quickly moving westward across the remainder of the 
basin through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture
combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W. The tropical Atlantic
is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure system centered near
33N55W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and
seas of 4-7 ft north of 28N and west of 75W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the
remaining tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from
the central Atlantic to South Florida will change little through 
Tue, then lift N to central Florida on Wed and N of 31N on Thu. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary 
just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to 
strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area 
into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just 
north of Hispaniola at night through the period. 

$$
Delgado