Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 291117
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and 
continues south-southwestward to 04N20W and then to 01S31W, where 
overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates that it transitions 
to the ITCZ and continues to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 16W-20W, within 180 
nm north of the trough between 31W-35W and within 60 nm south of the 
trough between 29W-34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure is over the eastern and central
Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and low 
pressure in central Mexico is allowing for moderate to fresh 
southeast winds over most of the western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft 
over the NW Gulf per recent satellite altimeter data passes and buoy 
observations. Farther south, the diurnal Yucatan Peninsula trough 
has pushed into the eastern Bay of Campeche, where its related 
gradient is bringing fresh east to southeast winds over that part of 
the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle Southeast to south winds are 
elsewhere across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, with the 
exception of lower seas of 1 to 3 ft over the far eastern Gulf.
 
Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern 
Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western 
Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the eastern and 
central Gulf will generally maintain gentle to moderate southeast 
to south winds across the basin, except for light to gentle 
variable winds over the NE Gulf through Fri. Moderate seas will be
over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas will be elsewhere 
through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and at night through 
Fri. A weak cold front will move into the far northern Gulf Thu 
and begin to stall Thu night into Fri, perhaps over waters further
south. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas 
coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay 
of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to the 
Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to 
strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force 
offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build 
to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the 
gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to 
precede the front. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest
forecast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia 
and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. An overnight 
scatterometer satellite data pass shows fresh northeast winds in the 
Windward Passage. Fresh east winds are in the Gulf of Honduras as 
noted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Gentle to 
moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin 
along seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for lower seas of 1-3 ft over the 
northwestern Caribbean north of 18N west of 80W. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to 
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun, 
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, 
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected 
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night and diminishing on Sun. A Gulf of America weakening cold 
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to near 26N69W, where it 
transitions to a stationary front to the central Bahamas. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed from 26N61W to 22N66W. A broad mid to 
upper-level trough has shifted to the east of these features as seen 
in water vapor imagery. It is sustaining an area of moderate rain 
with embedded numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 
27N between 44W and 49W. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are seen from 24N to 27N between 44W and 50W. 
Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes reveal moderate to 
fresh west to northwest winds behind the front to near 68W and north 
of 29N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 9 in northwest swell. Gentle 
to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere west of 
55W. Over the eastern part of the area, a cold front is analyzed 
from near 31N27W to 23N35W. Behind it, another cold front extends 
from 31N33W to near 29N40W. Moderate northwest winds are north of 
27N between the first front and 34W. Moderate winds are elsewhere 
within 120 nm north of the first front. Seas with these winds are 
about 5 to 7 ft as noted by several Sofar Spotter observations. For 
the remainder of the basin, the overnight satellite scatterometer 
data passes reveal moderate to fresh trades south of 20N between 34W 
and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate north to northeast winds 
south of 20N east of 34W, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds 
north of 20N east of 46W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in these areas as 
noted by overnight altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front that extends from 
31N58W to near 26N69W will shift E of 55W late this afternoon. 
Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida 
on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the
area through Fri afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening.
A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on 
Sat, and reach from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early 
on Sun and stall into Sun night. Low pressure is expected to ride 
up along the front at that time. 

$$
Aguirre