Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 261641
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the
Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia and over the
Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force tonight through
early Sat morning, and Sat night through Sun morning again. Seas
under these winds are expected to peak between 12 to 15 ft north 
of Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters 
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis from 01N30W to 
10N26W. The wave is moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 25W 
and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis from 04N51W to
17N44W. The wave is moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 14N between 43W
and 53W.

A tropical wave is located along 78W from 10N southward, moving 
westward at around 20 kt. The wave appears to be enhancing strong
convection over Panama and Colombia as well as the adjacent
waters.

The wave in the western Caribbean that was previously mentioned 
in this discussion has since crossed over into the Eastern 
Pacific. Please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion for information on that wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends 
from 05N29W to 03N46W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for
details on convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Bay of 
Campeche as well as along the coast of FL from the Keys to the FL
Panhandle, while generally dry conditions prevail in the rest of 
the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are found in
the Gulf W of 90W, as well as the Florida Straits. Seas in these 
waters are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight 
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist over the Gulf region 
through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except 
for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the 
northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to locally 
fresh SE to S winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the 
weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink 
southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Warning off Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the
Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh
to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas in the 
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the islands combined with the 
Colombian Low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
and rough to locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean 
through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force 
offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the 
nighttime and early morning hours tonight and again Sat. 
Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally 
rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through 
Sat night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
are forecast across the remainder of the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level shortwave north of the Leeward Islands is 
enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 
24N between 56W and 62W. Elsewhere, a broad Atlantic ridge 
anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure system near 34N49W supports 
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of
the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge will 
persist across the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected 
offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage,
each late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north-
to-south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will 
shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by
Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing 
winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into 
the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

$$
Adams