Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 050949
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Aug 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 26W from 07N to 17N, moving west at 
around 5-10 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave
has diminished early this morning.

A tropical wave is along 43W from 08N to 18N, moving west at 5-10
kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this
time. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 82W,
extending southward from the Cayman Islands, and moving west at 
10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from the lee of Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues 
southwestward to 10N26W to 08N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W 
to 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N 
between 30W and 40W and from 06N to 10N between 44W and 51W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 26N86W, supporting light
to gentle winds across most of the basin. A surface trough in the
Bay of Campeche is producing moderate NE to E winds over the SW 
basin. Seas basin-wide are 1-4 ft. A mid- and upper-level trough
is leading to scattered moderate convection offshore western Cuba,
and the aforementioned trough is causing scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz. 
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting
gentle winds and slight seas through the weekend. Pulses of fresh
winds will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, along 
with moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in
the basin. 

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas persist across 
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high 
pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South 
America. Moderate E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted in the E 
Caribbean and NW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
will continue to support strong trades in the south-central basin,
and as the gradient tightenings into the weekend, winds will 
increase to near gale. Fresh winds will also pulse in the Gulf of 
Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or 
weaker winds and seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extending from 27N63W to 21N64W is generating
scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 57W and 66W.
Fresh E winds and seas to 8 ft area also occurring in this zone. 
 In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near- gale N-NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages
of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, with 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a mid- and upper-level trough along
the SE U.S. coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing 
offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas today. A 
westward moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and 
Hispaniola into tonight, then approach the Bahamas before shifting
west of the area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and 
locally rough seas. Weak ridging settles across the northern and 
central waters this weekend, bringing tranquil marine conditions. 

$$
Konarik