Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 171013
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun May 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 14N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 10N
and E of 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 11N southward, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection associated with this
wave has dissipated overnight. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from S of Haiti to
the Colombia-Venezuela border, moving W at around 15 kt. Most
associated convection is inland over Venezuela and Colombia, but
scattered moderate convection has developed early this morning in
the Windward Passage and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then curves 
southwestward to 03N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N28W to 01N42W. 
Convection near the area is covered in the Tropical Waves section
above. 

Convergent winds north of the eastern end of the East Pacific
monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection in the
Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to the western Gulf. This feature is supporting mainly 
gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the Gulf.
In the western Gulf, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over Texas is leading to moderate to locally fresh
SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western 
Atlantic to the northern Gulf through mid-week. Expect moderate to
fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the 
high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to
strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the
evenings. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
information on convection in the basin. A tight pressure gradient
between a surface ridge along 30N and a 1006 mb low pressure over
far northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds
and 7 to 10 ft seas in the central and part of the southeastern 
basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted at
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of
3 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 
strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras into Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across the 
remainder of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough
seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue, then 
begin to subside.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends SE from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas. 
Scattered moderate convection extends up to 150 nm N of this 
boundary. Otherwise, broad ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high 
centered near 33N30W dominates. This is inducing gentle winds and 
moderate seas N of 27N, with mainly E winds and seas between 20N 
and 27N, then fresh trades and rough seas S of 20N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central 
Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough 
seas with E swell into tonight north of the Leeward Islands. A 
weak trough extending from 31N60W to the Bahamas will dissipate 
today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid-
week. 

$$
Konarik