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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;954705
AXNT20 KNHC 051613
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and is
along 18.5W, south of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 11N to 13N and west of 20W.
A tropical wave is along 32.5N, south of 20N, moving W at around
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03N to 10N
between 26W and 35W.
A tropical wave is along 62.5W, south of 20N, moving W at around
15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N
between 58W and the wave axis.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 76W,
and extends from eastern Cuba to near western Colombia. No
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 11N59W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between
38W and 48W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region supporting light
to gentle winds, except gentle to moderate winds over the Bay of
Campeche likely due to the pressure gradient between the ridge
and a surface trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. Isolated
showers, with embedded thunderstorms, dot the central and north-
central part of the basin.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters through the
middle of next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas
off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface
trough moving west off the peninsula each night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low is maintaining fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas
offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind
speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong
trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. This
gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of
strong, with locally near-gale force winds and rough seas, early
next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail into the middle of next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from near 30N78.5W to southern Florida.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with this
feature. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active along a
trough reaching from 28N68W to just north of Hispaniola. Another
surface trough is supporting scattered moderate convection north
of 26N between 45W and 55W. A 1019 mb high pressure remains over
the Atlantic and is centered near 24N40W. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region is also under the influence of a ridge,
with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located midway
between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. Under this weather
pattern, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally
prevail across the area through early next week, supporting
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A weak cold front is
likely to approach the northern waters, then stall along 31N for
the first part of next week.
$$
KRV
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