Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 161007
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, from 12N 
southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection previously
associated with this wave has waned overnight. 

An Atlantic tropical wave is crossing the Windward Islands this
morning along 62W, from 13N southward into Venezuela, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly
inland over Venezuela. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves 
southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ is noted from 01N40W to 01N47W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is present along and S of
the monsoon trough E of 24W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Ridging anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure centered just offshore
the Carolinas is dominating the basin, with weak diurnal troughs
along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and in the Bay of
Campeche. Fresh SE winds are E of the trough in the Bay of
Campeche, and also in the NW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2 to 5 ft in 
the western basin, and 2 ft or less in the east. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into the middle of 
next week. With the high pressure centered NE of the region and 
lower pressure over Texas, the pressure gradient will support 
fresh SE winds over the western Gulf through early next week. 
Evening pulses of strong winds are expected to move offshore the 
Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge oriented
along 31N and a 1008 mb low over far northern Colombia is 
sustaining strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in the 
central basin. Mainly fresh winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean, except for gentle to moderate E winds
with slight seas in the NW basin. Scattered moderate convection
has developed within 90 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica,
and Nicaragua due to converging low-level winds and the influence
of the East Pacific monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades 
across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue, 
with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast
waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the 
tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon night, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough extends from near 31N62W to the central
Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong convection has increased in
coverage overnight in association with this trough in the vicinity
of the central Bahamas. N of 30N between 52W and 62W, moderate SW
winds are ahead of the trough. Otherwise, much of the basin is 
dominated by a 1031 mb Azores high. This is leading to widespread
moderate to fresh easterly winds, with moderate seas. S of 21N,
rough seas in a mix of wind waves and easterly swell prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will dissipate today, 
leaving tranquil marine conditions in place into the middle of 
next week. Moderate to fresh east winds and mainly moderate seas 
will prevail. 

$$ 
Konarik