Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;305295
AXNT20 KNHC 022304
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2220 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 16N, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06.5N to 11N between 20W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 53W and 61W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W-85W, south of 20N and
extending into the tropical eastern Pacific, moving westward at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection 
is along the monsoon trough near the coast of Costa Rica, and 
extends ahead of the wave across Central America and into the 
adjacent Pacific waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16.5W and continues southwestward to 06.5N35W.
The ITCZ extends from 06.5N35W to 06N45W to 9.5N53W. Scattered 
moderate convection is evident from 06.5N to 12N E of 19W and into
western Africa, and from 06N to 10N and between 30W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic southwestward
across the SE U.S. and the northern Gulf waters, supporting 
moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across the entire 
basin. Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over the western Bay of Campeche and Mexican coastal
waters south of Tampico. Similar activity is also noted weakening
across the NE Gulf. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms across
southern Florida are moving westward and reaching the coasts
between Tampa Bay and Naples.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin 
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will 
pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week
due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western 
half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected 
elsewhere E of 90W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure across the NE Atlantic extends southwestward through
30N39W and then west-southwestward to the NW Bahamas. The pressure
gradient across the basin has tightened behind a tropical wave
move moving into Central America, and supports fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and seas of 8-11 ft in the central to SW 
Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are 
occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring ahead of a tropical wave approaching
the Lesser Antilles, and are weakening as they cross the islands
and encounter SW wind shear. Scattered thunderstorms are along the
monsoon trough S of 10N across the coastal waters of western
Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical 
ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish 
slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near-gale 
force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in 
the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail 
over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms 
are expected across the SE Caribbean tonight through Fri night as 
an upper-level trough sinks across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening front remains stationary along about 31N, from 55W to 
1017 mb low pressure near 31.5N73W, then becomes a surface trough
extends from 31N74W to the upper Florida Keys. Low level
convergence south of the front, and along the trough are aiding 
in the development of scattered moderate convection between the NW
Bahamas and SE Florida, and S of the front to 28N between 47W and
72W. A 1033 mb high pressure system centered NE of the Azores 
extends a ridge southwestward through 30N39W then west-
southwestward to the waters east of the Bahamas. Moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N 
and west of 35W to the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds 
and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 20N and east of 35W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending from 
31.5N73W to the Upper Florida Keys will gradually dissipate 
tonight while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. 
coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly from the central
Atlantic westward into central Florida through early next week. 
This pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 
22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to 
strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near
the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. 

$$
Stripling