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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 101718
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jan 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: As of 15Z, a strong cold front extends
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near-gale force
N winds and building seas are following the front. As this system
continues to move through the basin, winds will rapidly increase
to gale force near Tampico early this afternoon, and in Veracruz
adjacent waters this evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45
kt near Veracruz tonight. Seas will quickly build and likely peak
at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front
will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel
to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the
SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
07N12W, then runs westward to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W to 04N30W to 05N40W to near the equator at 50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 10W and 44W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western
Bay of Campeche. Please read the Special Features section above
for details.
As previously mentioned, a strong cold front is moving across the
Gulf region. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead
of the front. The remainder of the area is under the influence of
a ridge, that extends from near Bermuda, across Florida into the
Gulf region. Mainly gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft are ahead of the front, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft
within about 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula. Areas of dense fog
were observed this morning ahead of the front, and mainly over the
north-central Gulf and along west Florida.
For the forecast, outside of the strong cold front, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the
basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the
basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America
results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of
these winds. Seas in these waters are 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail, except
locally fresh to strong in the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba.
Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers.
For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the
pressure gradient between building high pressure N of the region
and low pressure over northern Colombia. Seas to 12 ft will occur
within these winds. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds
will prevail there. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast
elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will
be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of
Hispaniola through tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
will prevail. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far
NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad 1028 mb high pressure system centered north of Bermuda
near 34N64W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, Florida
and the Bahamas. A 1018 mb low pressure system is analyzed near
27N53W. A surface trough extends from 31N42W to the low center,
then continues SW to near 21N58W. N of this low, a stationary
front is noted, and runs from 31N50W to 28N58W. This weather
patter supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas
across most of the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. An area of showers
and thunderstorms is on the E side of the low and associated
trough. This convective activity covers roughly the waters from
21N to 27N between 43W and 55W. Farther E, high pressure of 1032
mb located near the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of
the Atlantic forecast region. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the Monsoon
trough/ITCZ is generating a large area of fresh to strong NE to E
winds from 07N to 25N E of 35W to the coast of west Africa with
seas of 8 to 11 ft per altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are observed over the remainder
of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds across
the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the
approaches to the Windward Passage are forecast to persist through
Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward Passage. A new
cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to
strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is
forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon
morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it
dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next cold front may enter the
NW waters by Wed night.
$$
GR
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