Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;962727
AXNT20 KNHC 262347
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over 
Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force tonight 
through early Sat morning, and again Sat night into Sun morning. 
Latest scatterometer satellite data is already depicting trade 
winds of near gale-force over these waters. These winds are 
forecast to produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft north of 
Colombia. Latest altimeter satellite data is already indicating 
seas peaking there to about 13 ft. In addition, buoy 42058 at the
location of 15N75W is currently reporting seas of 13 ft. Please 
refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 
01N31W to 10N26W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Increased
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
05N to 08N between the wave and 39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 
05N53W to 12N50W and to 18N44W. It is moving westward near 15 
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 
05N to 13N between the wave and 55W, and also east of the wave 
to near 49W from 06N to 10N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W south of 18N to 
the eastern Pacific near 06N80W moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
The wave appears to be enhancing numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection over northern Panama and its adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W, and extends southwest to 10N22W and to 
06N27.5W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 03N40W and to 03N46W. 
Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A rather weak and broad Atlantic high pressure ridge extends 
westward across central Florida, and west-northwestward to 
the north-central Gulf. The associated gradient is generally 
providing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
throughout the basin, except for fresh east winds over 
the central portions of the basin and in the eastern Bay 
of Campeche. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft east of 91W 
and 3 to 5 ft west of 91W.

Isolated showers are over some areas of the Bay of Campeche and 
eastern Gulf while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
moving to the northwest are over the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will persist over the 
Gulf region through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during
this time, except for fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, 
and moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds across the
NW Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal 
boundary will sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night 
and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about upcoming gale
conditions offshore of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the
Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics and in northern
South America is bringing fresh to near gale-force trade winds 
and rough seas in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds and moderate seas are present over the eastern 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter 
winds and slight seas prevail throughout the basin.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge north of the islands 
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the 
central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse 
to gale-force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela
during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and again 
Sat. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly 
through Sat night. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with 
moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward 
Passage late Sat afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or lighter 
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the 
remainder of the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is analyzed from near 31N58W to 26N60W and to near 
19N59W. An upper-level low dropping southward is near 29N61.5W 
as seen in water vapor imagery. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are evident north of 24.5N between 56W and 62W. 
Otherwise, the pressure gradient between a rather broad high 
pressure ridge that is anchored by a 1031 mb high analyzed north 
of the area near 35N49W and relatively lower pressure in the deep
tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with
moderate seas over most of the tropical Atlantic as captured in 
the latest scatterometer and altimeter satellite data passes.
In the far eastern Atlantic, a tight pressure gradient between
the high pressure and lower pressure in West Africa is bringing 
fresh to strong winds to the waters offshore the coast of Africa 
from 18N to 22.5N between the coast and about 22W. Seas are 6 to
8 ft with these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the broad high pressure ridge will
remain across the area through the weekend. Fresh to strong 
easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore 
Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each 
late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north to
south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will 
shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W 
by Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge resulting in 
diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slip 
southward over the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

$$
Aguirre