Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150431
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: the pressure gradient has tighten between
the surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low. 
This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean, 
reaching gale-force off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela 
through tomorrow morning, then again on Sat night through Sun 
morning. Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and 
downwind of these winds. 

Please see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 05N to 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
wave environment.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 37W, from 05N to
20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted W of the wave to 42W. While environmental 
conditions are conducive for some development over the next few 
days, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds 
next week, decreasing its chances for development. There is a
medium chance for tropical development of this system in the next
7 days.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W
from 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered 
showers are noted in the wave environment.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, moving 
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted 
with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends 
southwestward to 08N58W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical 
Waves section above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W, 
leading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the 
forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to 
28N82W.

For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the 
north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening 
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds will be occurring
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of 
Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to 
moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. By 
midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW 
and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between 
the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning 
in effect for the south-central basin tonight.

Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 16N west of 
81W in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over most of the east and
central Caribbean will prevail through this weekend. Peak winds 
to minimal gale force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A tropical wave, with 
axis along 58W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands 
tonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely, 
strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are 
possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on 
Saturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward 
toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater 
Antilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. 
Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high at 
26N63W. Winds associated with a tropical wave, Invest AL92, are 
fresh to strong from 10N-19N between 51W-63W with seas 8-12 ft. 
Fresh to strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola with
seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the 
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft. 
Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined 
with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea 
will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun 
night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate 
for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across 
the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind 
shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds 
on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday 
before dissipating by midweek. 

$$
ERA