Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 090946
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to 
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through the early part of the week. Winds 
offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force Tue night. Seas of 
8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to
02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil at 
03.5S39W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is 
noted S of 03N between 18W and 31.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An old frontal boundary remnant is near the coast of Texas and 
Louisiana, continuing to trigger showers and thunderstorms in the
NW Gulf early today. Areas of dense fog with reduced visibilities
is present in much of the N-central and NE Gulf coastal waters
with nearshore and offshore observations reporting such. Light to
gentle winds are found N of 26N and E of 90W along with seas of 3
ft or less, with moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and 3 to 5
ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the 
basin will prevail through midweek. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to between 
fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in
the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the 
northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A 
cold front may impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, 
before moving across the basin through Fri night with increasing 
winds and seas behind it. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a developing
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. 

A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high
pressure to the north is supporting fresh to strong trade winds 
over the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds are moderate to 
fresh across much of the remaining basin. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail 
in the central Caribbean per a pair of altimeter passes. Seas are
moderate in the eastern and SW Caribbean, except locally rough
near Atlantic passages, while slight to moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High 
and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed 
night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the night-time hours Tue night. Fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage through 
mid-week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade- 
wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas 
near the Lesser Antilles through Wed night. Marine conditions will
improve slightly by the end of the week as the pressure gradient 
weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical 
Atlantic, supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds 
south of 27N. Pockets of locally strong trade winds are noted east
of the Lesser Antilles. Rough seas in E swell are noted in this 
region as well as east of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, the 
remnants of a frontal boundary are analyzed as a surface trough, 
extending from 31N33W to 24N39W. Fresh to strong NE winds are 
occurring N of 28N between the trough and 45W. Associated remnant
rough seas are found N of 28N between 27W and 47W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible N of 23N between 32W and
43W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in NE 
swell prevail off the coast of northwest Africa, supported by a 
strong pressure gradient between a high to the north over the 
Azores and lower pressures over northwest Africa. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest 
of the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 25N through midweek, reaching strong north 
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will 
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast 
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected 
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may 
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold 
front. That front may move offshore Thu with fresh to strong winds
and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near 
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night. 

$$
Lewitsky