Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 090600
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Dec 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward 
from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula and southern
Mexico. Near-gale to gale force northerly winds behind this front
near Veracruz, Mexico will gradually decrease to between fresh 
and strong after midnight tonight. Seas at 10 to 12 ft will also
subside and become 7 to 9 ft by Tue afternoon.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. 
An ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W to 02N46W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 00N to 03N 
between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning. 

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Straits to 
the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 50 nm
south of the front. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong
northerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the
southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle N
to NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate N to NE swell are noted
across the Florida Straits and near the Texas coast. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from 
the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Fresh to 
strong N to NE winds outside the Gale Warning area behind the 
front will diminish to between moderate and fresh over the
southeastern and south-central Gulf on Tue, with light to gentle 
winds expected over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas will also 
subside on Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan Peninsula and 
eventually dissipates around midweek. Looking ahead, weak high 
pressure will build over the basin later this week, supporting 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel and near western Cuba. A 
1021 mb high at the central Atlantic near 24N45W sustains a fair 
trade- wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to 
fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the south-central 
basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas stay at the 
northwestern basin and near Costa Rica and Panama, including the 
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 
to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern basin 
through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic. 
Winds may pulse to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore 
of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas may 
develop near and to the west of these winds. A tightening pressure
gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the 
northwestern basin and low pressure in the south-central basin 
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the 
central basin beginning on Wed and into the upcoming weekend. 
Winds may approach near gale-force offshore of Colombia late Wed. 
Elsewhere, a persistent E swell will continue to lead to rough 
seas over the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles 
into early Wed before seas slightly subside. New mixed N and E
swell is expected to bring rough seas over these same waters 
starting late Wed night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front runs southwestward from a 1006 mb low 
south of Bermuda across 31N65W to the central Bahamas. Widely
scattered moderate convection is evident near and up 40 nm south 
of the boundary. Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered
moderate convection from 08N to 10N between 32W and 38W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin. 

Fresh to strong SW to NW winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are seen
near and behind both cold fronts, north of 27N between 52W and 
the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia coast. Otherwise, a 
1021 mb high near 24N45W is dominating the Atlantic north of 23N 
between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast with gentle to 
moderate clockwise winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to 
large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 23N 
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh with 
locally strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are present. For 
the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found.

For the forecast west of 35W, the cold front will continue 
eastward through late Tue night, preceded by fresh to strong 
SW winds north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas in W swell east of 
73W will continue to expand toward the central Atlantic into early
Tue as very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible north of 30N 
and east of 64W by Tue morning. A second and stronger cold front 
extending from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida 
will quickly shift eastward through Tue night overtaking the first
front. The front will be followed by fresh to strong NW winds, 
north of about 26N and west of 68W into late tonight. A new set of
N swell will support rough seas over the northwest tropical 
Atlantic by late tonight, before merging with the aforementioned 
rough seas in the central Atlantic on Tue. Winds will diminish 
from west to east through Tue night, with rough seas slowly 
subsiding through late week. Looking ahead, fresh to locally 
strong SW winds and rough seas may develop offshore northern 
FLorida starting Wed as a low pressure system moves off the east 
coast of the U.S.

$$

Chan