Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 022322
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Feb 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front in the central
Atlantic extends from 31N53W to 21N63W where it then continues as
a stationary front across Puerto Rico and into the central
Caribbean Sea. Widespread very rough seas in N to NW swell cover 
the northwest tropical Atlantic in the wake of the front, and 
locally very rough seas in mixed swell are noted to the east of 
the front north of 28N. Peak seas of 18 to 24 ft are expected 
north of 26N and east of 67W through late tonight. Seas in excess
of 12 ft will slowly subside from west to east, and will move east
of 35W Thu night into early Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and 
extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N36W to
northern Brazil at 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring from 01N to 05N east of 28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure located over the N-central Gulf near 29N89W 
dominates the basin. Fresh to strong winds are diminishing over
the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
elsewhere in the SE Gulf, with moderate to fresh SE return flow
over the western Gulf W of 94W, and gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds elsewhere and between. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in
remnant northerly swell across both the SE and SW portions of the
Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere south of 26N, and mainly 3 ft 
or less north of 26N.

For the forecast, the high pressure will move toward the NE Gulf 
tonight allowing a fresh to strong southerly return flow to 
develop over the western Gulf. These winds will persist through 
late Tue. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Wed 
morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through Thu 
evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will 
follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the
Gulf area Thu night into Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A stationary front extends from Puerto Rico to northern Colombia 
where it is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms. This boundary is forecast to support an elevated to
significant flood risk across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands through at least mid-week. Please refer to
https://www.weather.gov/sju for the latest from the NWS San Juan
Weather Forecast Office. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas 
are noted in the west of the front, forecast to dissipate by Tue 
night into Wed. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are east of
the front. Seas are 8 to 13 ft S of 19N between 70W and 86W, with
7 to 10 ft seas also spreading through the Mona Passage. Seas are
4 to 7 ft elsewhere west of the front, and 3 to 5 ft east of the
front. To the east of the Lesser Antilles, rough seas in E swell
have mainly subsided and are now confined along 55W and eastward. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the 
central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the
E as high pressure settles N of the area. An area of moisture 
associated with this frontal boundary will remain and move 
westward across the central Caribbean on Tue, reaching the coast 
of Nicaragua on Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected
to reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu, bringing fresh to strong N
winds and building seas. The front will move quickly across the 
basin, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu 
night into Fri while weakening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the 
significant swell event occurring over portions of the northwest 
tropical Atlantic. 

A cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N53W to 
21N63W where it then continues as a stationary front across Puerto
Rico and into the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds 
are on either side of the front north of 23N, with similar winds
south of 20N including through the Windward and Mona Passages. 
Very rough seas, in long period NW swell, are found in the wake of
the front as described above. Rough seas are ahead of the front 
to the north of 28N. Another cold front is well to the east, 
extending from the coast of Morocco at 25N15W to 25N32W. High 
pressure of 1024 mb dominates in the wake and across the remainder
of the open waters. Rough to very rough NW swell covers the 
waters north of 25N and east of 40W in the wake of this cold 
front. Fresh to strong NE-E trades are found south of the front to
10N between Africa and 45W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail across the remainder of the open waters. Seas are 6 to 9 
ft across the remainder of the open waters including across the 
fresh to strong trades.

For the forecast west of 55W, the north part of the front will 
continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will 
remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the 
northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will 
begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast 
to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong 
winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front. 

$$
Lewitsky