Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 040435
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0434 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced in the 00Z analysis along
22W, south of 17N. Isolated convection is depicted along the wave
axis. 

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31.5W, extending 
from 04N to 17N, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 12N between 27W 
and 38W. 

A tropical wave is across the eastern Caribbean, south of 19N,  
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 12N to 18N between 62.5W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
southwestward to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 10N34W to 
06N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
waves, scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06.5N to
08.5N between 37W and 49.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW 
across the SE U.S. and to the central Gulf waters, anchored by a 
1017 mb high in the central Gulf. This supports light to gentle 
winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle 
to moderate NE to E winds over the Bay of Campeche associated 
with a surface trough. Afternoon convection over Florida has 
drifted westward over the eastern Gulf as it weakens. 

For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will continue to 
dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting 
gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle
winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds 
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week. These winds are
the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. 
Slight to moderate seas are expected.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant tropical moisture accompanying the tropical wave along
66.5W has encountered favorable upper level conditions due to an 
elongated middle to upper-level low pressure N of the Greater 
Antilles, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across 
much of the eastern Caribbean east of 74W. Western Cuba and 
western Hispaniola afternoon convection has drifted offshore as it
weakens. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north
of the basin and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to 
strong easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW 
Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are 
occurring in the eastern Caribbean away from areas of convection 
associated with the tropical wave near 66.5W. Elsewhere, moderate 
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E 
Pacific extension of the monsoon continues to support scattered 
strong convection over the waters near the coasts of NW Colombia 
and Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through Wed night. Expect winds to 
reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will 
continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds 
will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and 
thunderstorms across the E Caribbean are being fueled by a 
tropical wave with axis along 66W. The wave and its associated 
moisture will reach Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters on
Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of
the area along 31N-33N between 57W and 70W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms previal across much of the central and 
northwestern Atlantic between the stalled front and 25.5N, from 
43W to 64W, and focused along another surface trough from 31N46W 
to 26N53W. Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge 
southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus 
supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
across much of the waters S of 22N. Moderate to fresh trades 
prevail across areas from 08N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser 
Antilles, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and 
3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
build westward into central Florida through early next week. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 
22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. 

$$
KRV