Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;295551
AXNT20 KNHC 161556
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from
07N to 19N with axis near 33W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 30W and 35W.

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic central waters, extending 
from 04N to 20N with axis near 51W, moving west at 15-20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 47W and 
52W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 72W 
south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is active from 12N to 18N between 68W 
and 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends 
southwestward to 13N25W to 12N31W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W 
and continues to 13.5N45W to 12N50W. No significant covection is
evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves
section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb 
high pressure center over the northwest Gulf near 28N91W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the west-
central Gulf, west of a trough that extends across the southwest 
Gulf along 94W from 24N94W southward to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico 
along the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting moderate SE 
winds and 3-5 ft seas east of the trough, and light to gentle 
breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters
through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly 
gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally 
induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong 
winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds
will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough
migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected 
through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the
central Caribbean between northwest Venezuela and Hispaniola,
along a tropical wave moving through the region. The pressure
gradient between this feature and the Atlantic ridge centered east
of the Bahamas is supporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas 
over the north-central Caribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9
ft elsewhere east of 85W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9
ft are also active through the Windward Passage to the north coast
of Jamaica. Fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted in the lee of
Cuba, with moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge N of 
the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean though Mon. The tropical wave in the 
central Caribbean is accompanied by active convection which will 
create locally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue 
westward across the western Caribbean Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered
east of the northern Bahamas near 26N73W. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are active between this ridge and Bermuda, on
the southern end of a stationary front north of the area along
32N. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted between
the ridge and front, specifically from 28N to 30N between 55W and
70W. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of
the ridge, specifically south of 22N and west of 55W, with strong
winds and rough seas near the northern approaches to the Windward
Passage. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge 
anchored by 1027 mb high pressure centered over the Azores. Light
to gentle SE to S breezes are evident along the ridge axis from
the Azores to the Bahamas, with 3-4 ft seas. A band of moderate 
NE winds and 4-6 ft seas from off northwest Africa to the eastern
Caribbean, except fresh trade winds and 5-7 ft seas in the deep
tropics east of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft
seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 
ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central 
Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds 
south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the 
northern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move across
the northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by 
Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front
and E of 70W today and tonight. 

$$
Christensen