Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;064469
AXNT20 KNHC 091709
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jan 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off 
the coast of Texas late tonight. Strong to near-gale force N winds
following the front will rapidly reach gale force near Tampico 
late Sat morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters 
Sat evening through Mon morning. Winds may peak around 45 kt near 
Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft 
offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and 
stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by Mon evening, and conditions in the SW Gulf 
will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at websites - 
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
07N12W, then runs westward to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues westward
from 06N17W to 02N35W to 02.5N51W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 01N to 05N between 15W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect. Please read the Special Features section
above for more information. 

A ridge dominates the Gulf region while a cold front is approaching
the coast of Texas. The pressure gradient between these two features
is supporting fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the southern
part of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted elsewhere.
Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the western part of the basin and 2 to 4 ft in
the eastern part, except less than 2 ft within about 120 nm of the
Florida Peninsula. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds across portions
of the southwest and central Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds today ahead of the next cold front. The front will move off the
coast of Texas late tonight. Please, see the Special Features section
for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the 
strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt offshore Colombia. Rough seas of up
to 11 ft are associated with these winds, that are the result of 
the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the 
Colombian low. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring
south of Hispaniola while moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
are blowing across the Windward Passage, between eastern Cuba and
Jamaica, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within 
these winds. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with 
slight to moderate seas. Patches of low level moisture, with possible
showers, are reaching Hispaniola and eastern Cuba under a NE to E
winds flow. Low-topped trade wind showers are moving westward across
the basin. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the 
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low 
pressure over northern Colombia, then fresh to locally strong 
there afterwards. Rough seas to 11 ft will occur within these 
winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in 
the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and 
Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely 
pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola 
through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba 
tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will 
prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of 
Honduras Fri night. A decaying cold front may move into or near 
the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash 
out. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge, anchored on a 1030 mb high pressure located well N of the
area near 40N67W, dominates the western Atlantic, the State of 
Florida and the Bahamas. A cold front enters the forecast region
near 31N58W and extends to 28N65W to 31N72W. Moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake of the 
front. Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring elsewhere W 
of 60W with slight to moderate seas. A surface trough is analyzed 
from 27N56W to the northern Leeward Islands. A few showers are 
near the trough axis. An area of showers and thunderstorms has
developed between the northern end of the trough and a stationary
front that runs from 31N40W to 28N50W. This convective activity 
covers the waters from 24N to 30N between 49W and 54W. A low 
pressure may develop in this area. Strong winds are observed 
within this convection per satellite derived wind data. Farther 
E, high pressure of 1034 mb located between the Azores and the 
Madeiras Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast 
region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating 
a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds roughly from 10N to 
25N E of 36W to the coast of west Africa with seas of 8 to 12 ft. 
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are 
observed over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Moderate 
winds and moderate seas, in NE swell, are seen in the vicinity of
the Lesser Antilles. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in 
the wake of a cold front with tail just into the NE waters will 
support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the 
Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward 
Passage through Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward 
Passage. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast 
Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this 
front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern 
Bahamas by Mon morning, dissipating Mon night into Tue. 

$$
GR