Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;177334
AXNT20 KNHC 111646
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jan 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
Tampa Bay, FL to eastern Veracruz, Mexico. NW winds to 45 kt, with
seas to 22 ft, continues in the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz,
Mexico. Gale conditions are forecast to continue in this region 
through Monday. The front will weaken and stall from near western 
Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon 
evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon 
night into Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Liberia near 05N10W and
continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 25W and
50W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

As previously mentioned, strong cold front extends from
Tampa Bay, FL to eastern Veracruz, Mexico. Outside of the GALE
WARNING, strong to near-gale force northerly winds are behind the
front across most of the basin, with seas ranging from 8-11 ft.
Scattered showers are along the front. Moderate NE winds and
slight seas are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf
and the Straits of Florida. 

For the forecast, the front will continue to move across the basin
today, bringing strong to near-gale force northerly winds and 8-11
ft seas to the SE Gulf. The front will then weaken and stall from
near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of 
Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually 
improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight 
to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. 
The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds 
and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting 
SE of the basin Thu. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest satellite scatterometer data indicates strong trades in
the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, a result of
the tight pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic ridge
and lower pressures over South America. Seas are 8-10 ft in these
strong trades, as captured in recent satellite altimeter data. 
Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the 
central Caribbean, with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through tonight due to the pressure 
gradient between high pressure N of the region and low pressure 
over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. After tonight, 
fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Pulsing moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and 
SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola 
adjacent waters through at least the early part of the week. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A decaying cold 
front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early this week 
where it will stall and wash out. Another cold front may move into
the NW part of the basin Thu. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1028 mb high pressure is centered north of the area, and provides
for moderate to locally fresh trades across the tropical and
subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Seas are 4-7 ft, except south of 20N
and east of 40W where seas are 8-9 ft. Weak surface troughs are
from 20N57W to 28N54W and from 29N37W to 26N46W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure N of the area will 
continue to move eastward ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge
off the NE Florida coast later today. Fresh to strong NW winds 
and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach 
from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, 
the front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into 
Tue. The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, 
reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night, with 
associated gale winds possible N of 29N Thu night. 

$$
Mahoney