Sandy Bay Weather Center
Weather Center


 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;271232
AXNT20 KNHC 091030
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 09 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal 
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and continues southwestward
to 05N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to near 
03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm south 
of the ITCZ between 33W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida southwestward to
the Yucatan Peninsula and to extreme southern Mexico. High 
pressure is building across the area behind the front. Fresh to 
strong winds offshore Veracruz and over the far SW Gulf will 
diminish to fresh speeds by early this afternoon. Seas of 8 to 10 
ft with these winds will subside to 6 to 8 ft in north swell by 
early in the afternoon. Mostly fresh north to northeast winds are
elsewhere southeast of a line from 29N91W to 26N95W and to 20N96W.
Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall today 
from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. The fresh
north to northeast will diminish late tonight into early on Wed as 
the front weakens further, and at which time light to gentle 
winds are expected over most of the basin. Seas throughout will 
subside today. Weak high pressure will slide eastward across the 
northern Gulf later this week in the wake of a cold front that 
will be clipping the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds will be 
near the high while gentle to moderate winds will be elsewhere 
over the Gulf. Slight seas are expected for the remainder of the 
period after today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough is analyzed from near western Cuba to 20N85W and to 
inland central Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are noted west and northwest of the trough to the 
Yucatan Channel and near western Cuba. The pressure gradient 
between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower 
pressures in northern south America and in the south-central and 
southwestern Caribbean is generally allowing for moderate to fresh
trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft to exist east of about 79W. 
Slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of 15N between 64W and
68W. Light to gentle winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over 
the northwest portion of the basin and near Costa Rica and Panama,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds 
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the sea.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate 
seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue today 
as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic. Winds will 
begin to pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and 
offshore of northern Colombia starting this evening. Locally rough
seas may develop near and to the west of these winds. A 
tightening pressure gradient between a weakening cold front 
approaching the northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the 
south-central basin will support fresh to strong trade winds and 
rough seas in the central Caribbean beginning on Wed and into the 
upcoming weekend. Winds may approach near gale- force offshore of 
Colombia late Wed. Elsewhere, a persistent east swell will 
continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters and 
passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas 
slightly subside. New mixed north and east swell is expected to 
bring rough seas over these same waters starting late Wed night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends southwestward from a 1004 mb low north 
of the area near 33N61W to 31N64W to 26N71W and to 25N76W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the front to
near 60W and north of 28N. A stronger cold front extends from
near 31N69W to 27N75W to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of 
Florida. Fresh to strong southwest winds are ahead of both fronts 
while similar wind speeds from the  northwest in direction are 
behind the stronger front. These winds are occurring roughly north 
of about 27N between 51W and the northeastern Florida/southern 
Georgia coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. Otherwise, a 
1020 mb high center near 25N46W is dominating the Atlantic north of 
23N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, with gentle 
to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to 
large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 23N 
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh, to at times, 
locally strong trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft seas are present. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas are 
present over the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, rough seas in west swell east of 68W will be 
reinforced by additional large northwest swell today through late 
tonight following in behind a stronger cold front that will 
quickly move eastward overtaking the aforementioned cold front 
tonight. This next front is followed today by fresh to strong 
northwest winds north of about 28N between 67W and 80W. By late 
this afternoon these winds are expected to be north of 29N between
60W and 66W before shifting northeast of the area late tonight as
the front begins to stall. The northwest swell gradually subside 
Wed and Wed night as it shifts to the NE forecast waters. At that 
same time rough seas in long period east swell will begin to move 
into the southeast forecast waters and linger through the 
remainder of the forecast period. Looking ahead, fresh to locally 
strong southwest winds and rough seas may develop offshore 
northern Florida starting Wed as a low pressure system moves off 
the east coast of the U.S. Its associated cold front should move 
across the waters east of Florida from Wed night through the end 
of the weak as it weakens, and eventually stalling over the NE 
offshore zones Sat and dissipate Sat night. Fresh west to 
northwest winds will follow the front through late Thu.

$$
Aguirre


 

 



Copyright © Sandybay.net   ::   All rights reserved.