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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;251203
AXNT20 KNHC 260906
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1031 mb centered near Savannah, Georgia and low
pressure across NW Colombian will continue to support fresh to
strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean
early this week. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force early
this morning along the coast of Colombia, and then again tonight
through into early Mon morning. Seas are forecast to build to 12
or 13 ft during these periods of strongest winds. Please refer
to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia
near 06N10.5W and continues SW to near 03N19W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N19W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N50W. Widely scattered
moderate convection can be found from 01N to 05N between 10W and
30W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure of 1031 mb located near Savannah, Georgia extends a
ridge across the SE of the United States into the Gulf region
while low pressure of 1022 mb is located near the Texas Hill
Country along a slow moving front. This pattern supports fresh to
strong return flow in the western Gulf with moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds in the SE and south-central Gulf, including the
Straits of Florida. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NE and
north-central Gulf. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the western Gulf west
of 94W, 4 to 7 ft in the central Gulf between 85W and 94W, and 3
to 5 ft elsewhere, except 3 ft or less in the NE coastal waters.
Lingering cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the
central Gulf. Low level clouds, with patches of light rain are
noted over the NW Gulf.
For the forecast, low pressure over the Texas Hill Country and
high pressure extending from near Savannah, Georgia to southern
Louisiana will support fresh to strong return flow in the western
Gulf with moderate to locally fresh winds in the eastern Gulf
through today. A weak front will move into the NW Gulf late
tonight into early Mon, stalling and dissipating over the NW Gulf
coastal waters through Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the basin for the end of the weekend through
early next week, increasing to moderate to fresh mid-week as the
pressure gradient tightens, then fresh to locally strong by the
end of the week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh seas in the
SW half of the Gulf will subside by Mon, with slight to moderate
seas elsewhere into the early part of the week. Seas may build
back late in the week with the increasing winds.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters near the coast of
Colombia through early Mon morning. Please refer to the Special
Features section for more details.
Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central
Caribbean, fresh to strong winds dominate the majority of the
remainder of the basin, including the Windward Passage, the Lee of
Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and the offshore waters of Nicaragua.
Seas are 7 to 11 ft in the south-central Caribbean spreading into
the SW Caribbean in NE to E swell, 5 to 8 ft elsewhere west of
72W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 72W. Patches of low level clouds,
embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the eastern
Caribbean, and also extend from south of Jamaica to coastal
Nicaragua, producing isolated to scattered passing showers.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the majority
of the basin through the remainder of the weekend will decrease in
coverage during the early part of the week, being more confined
to the central part of the Caribbean basin by around midweek.
Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force just offshore northern
Colombia early today and again tonight. Meanwhile, long-period
east swell will continue to produce rough seas through the
Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early part of the
week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weakening cold front from 30N55W to 24.5N68W is stalling to
eastern Cuba near 21.5N77W. The front is followed by fresh to
strong north to northeast winds and rough seas immediately behind
it, with gentle to moderate winds and subsiding seas offshore
northern Florida and NE of the Bahamas under 1031 mb high pressure
centered near Savannah, Georgia. A band of low level clouds, with
areas of light to moderate rain, is associated with the front.
Cold air stratocumulus clouds are seen behind the frontal boundary
over the western Atlantic reaching parts of the E coast of
Florida. East of the front, a 1027 mb high pressure situated near
28N38W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. A
band of fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail across the southern
periphery of the ridge over the Tropical Atlantic mainly south of
23N/24N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these winds per earlier
observations. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across
the waters north of 23N/24N under the influence of the ridge,
with moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the open
Atlantic. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft north of 23N and east of the
cold front, except 8 to 10 ft in long period NW swell east of
about 37W to the Canary and Madeira Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will completely stall and
weaken from near 29N55W to 25N59W to the SE Bahamas later this
morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected at that time
to be south of about 27N and west of the front. Meanwhile, fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas will remain in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south
of 22N through the early part of the week with rough seas. Fairly
tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere for the early
part of the week as weak high pressure settles in over the region.
Moderate to fresh west winds along with building seas may be seen
in the far northern forecast waters Tue through midweek in
advance of a pair of cold fronts. The first front may remain north
of the area, while the second front may reach from near 31N70W to
the NW Bahamas Thu.
$$
Lewitsky
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