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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 091016
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb 
Bermuda High and lower pressure in northern South America will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central 
and portions of the SW Caribbean through the middle of next week, 
with gale-force winds occurring through this morning offshore of 
Colombia, and near gale-force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. The
ridge N of the region will shift southward to along 28N through 
Tue and maintain strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia and 
in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas to 13 ft are expected 
during the time of the gale-force winds, and then peak at 10 to 
11 ft each of the next few nights.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 37W from 08N to 17N, moving west near 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between
32W-44W.

A tropical wave is along 46W from 13N to 24N, moving west at 10 
to 15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant
convection currently accompanies the wave.

A tropical wave is along 64W and S of 20N, moving west at 10 to 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis and N
of 14N.

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west 
coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will 
be possible during the middle to latter part of the week while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. 
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17N and continues 
southwestward to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 12N64W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted alond the ITCZ between 48W
and 54W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A low level trough over the northeastern Gulf extends from the 
Florida panhandle area to near 26N92W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted with this trough. A 1023 mb Bermuda High 
extends a weak ridge westward along 32N and inland across the 
northern Gulf states, and drapped across the trough. This weak 
pressure pattern across the Gulf is supporting mostly light to 
gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are occurring across the western coastal waters of the 
Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a thermal trough there. Diffluent flow
aloft is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms 
across the central portions of the basin, and along the Mexican 
coast between Cabo Rojo and Veracruz.
 
For the forecast, the surface trough will support scattered 
showers and thunderstorms through today as the trough moves 
inland. Similar activity is noted in the Bay of Campeche and SW 
Gulf with the passage of a diurnal surface trough. The surface 
ridge will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will
support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight
seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and 
night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan 
Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect
for the waters north of Colombia and the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located just west
of Bermuda and a 1008 mb Colombian low continues to support fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean south of 16N 
and between 68W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 11 ft across much of this 
area. Fresh to strong trade accompany a tropical wave across the 
eastern Caribbean, to the N of 14N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. 
Active weather near the wave is described above. Moderate to fresh
trades are over the remainder of the E Caribbean while gentle to 
moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 5 ft with 
these winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and regional 
waters, including the Yucatan Channel, and are supported by upper 
level troughing extending from the NE Caribbean west- 
northwestward to the Yucatan channel.

For the forecast, the ridge N of the basin will gradually shift 
southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near 
gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela 
each night. Winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds during the 
evenings and nights in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage 
through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades 
will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther 
southward later this week, which may combine with an approaching 
tropical wave to increase easterly trade winds again across the 
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered showers continue off northeast Florida, N of 29N and W
of 80W, to the east of a low level trough moving across the NE 
Gulf of America and extending into SE Georgia. A broad ridge 
dominates the waters north of 25N across the basin, broken only by
a trough reaching from 31N49W to 27N56W. Saharan air and 
suspended dust is evident east of this trough, north of 13N. The 
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N 
and west of 55W into the E Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. 
South of 22N and east of 55W gentle to moderate trades prevail to 
the Cabo Verde Islands, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Fresh to strong 
NE winds and 5-8 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands 
southwestward to 20N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers across the NW 
zones off of Florida will diminish today as the surface trough 
over the northeastern Gulf of America, continues to move NW away 
from the area. The Bermuda High will shift southward to along 28N
through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in 
the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing 
to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic ridge will 
drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in 
stronger easterly winds. 

$$
ERA


 

 



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