Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 180411
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jun 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is centered near 29.7N 94.5W at
18/0300 UTC or 30 nm NNE of Galveston Texas, moving NE at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present well east of the center. 
Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. A northeastward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast Thursday through Friday. On the forecast 
track, the remnants of Arthur should move farther inland over 
southeastern Texas and western Louisiana tonight, then cross the 
southeastern United States Thursday through Friday. While 
additional weakening is expected as the system moves inland, the 
remnants of Arthur will continue to produce widespread heavy rains
across the southeastern United States during the next few days.
Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, 
with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday 
from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern 
and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along
with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This 
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Arthur NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present south of 10N and east of 29W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 
17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 02N to 09N and between 30W and 42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are seen near the 
trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are evident near the 
trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N23W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 05N37W and then from 05N40W to 00N50W.
See the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur impacting portions of the NW Gulf 
and adjacent land areas.

Outside of the influence of ex-Arthur, the remainder of the Gulf 
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the western 
Atlantic. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are 
occurring off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
southerly winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, Post-Tropical Storm Arthur remains along the Texas
coast near 29.7N 94.5W at 11 PM EDT, moving northeast at 8 kt. 
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Minimum 
central pressure is 1000 mb. The weakening remnants of Arthur 
will move northeastward and into SW Louisiana tonight and 
dissipate. Strong thunderstorms occurring well to the E of Arthur 
are offshore of SE Louisiana and will shift NE tonight through 
Thu. S to SW swell generated by Arthur and associated 
thunderstorms are likely to cause large and dangerous surf and 
life-threatening rip current conditions along the northwestern and
north-central Gulf Coast for the next day or two. Otherwise, a 
tightening pressure gradient will develop over the basin tonight 
and sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and 
central Gulf tonight through Thu night, and moderate to fresh 
winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas will begin to diminish
late Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over 
the eastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic forces 
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in
the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate easterly 
winds and 4-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.  

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge will remain in place
along 27N-28N through the upcoming weekend while weakening 
slightly Fri night through Sat night, as a frontal system clips 
the waters off NE Florida. The pressure gradient south of the 
ridge will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast 
period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of 
Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through 
Mon, pulsing briefly to near gale-force tonight, Thu night and Fri
night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere 
across the northwestern Caribbean through Mon. Active showers and 
thunderstorms are expected across SW portions Wed through Fri as 
an upper-level trough digs into the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge dominates the tropical
Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 
4-7 ft are found south of 23N and west of 35W. In the far east, 
fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present from 17N
to 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will
remain in place along 27N-28N through the upcoming weekend while 
weakening slightly Fri night through Sat night, as a frontal 
system clips the waters offshore of NE Florida. The related 
pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds 
south of 22N through the forecast period. Moderate to locally 
fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 72W will 
expand eastward to near 65W through tonight, as a weak frontal 
system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to
move slowly offshore early Sat and stall offshore NE Florida by 
Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late 
evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Delgado