Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 240558
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues 
southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 05N35W, and then runs west-northwestward to the coast
of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
E of 31W between 03N and 13N, and also near the coast of Guyana.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows a fog bank forming along the Gulf coast of
Florida from the Big Bend down to near Venice, FL as of 0550 UTC.
Mariners should be aware of the potential for reduced visibility
within 20-30 nm of the coast in these aforementioned areas. A 
weak stationary front extends from near Apalachicola, FL across 
the N Gulf to the TX coast near Port Aransas. Widely scattered 
showers are seen near and in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise,
weak ridging continues to dominate the basin. Recent 
scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh SE to E winds 
across much of the Gulf W of 90W, and gentle to moderate E to NE 
winds E of 90W. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary remains stationary from the 
Florida Panhandle to Lake Jackson, Texas. The front will lift 
northeastward as a warm front tonight as low pressure develops 
over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the 
Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by the gradient 
between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off 
the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal 
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger 
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early 
Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then 
sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh
to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial 
frontal boundary. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level trough and convergent surface winds in the NW
Caribbean is leading to scattered moderate convection near the
coasts of Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, as well as more isolated
convection near the SW coast of Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean, the
East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting more scattered moderate
convection generally S of 12N and W of 75W. Outside of convection,
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE US and the
Colombia low sustains fresh to strong NE winds off the NW coast of
Colombia, with rough seas also analyzed in the region. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas persist across the remainder of 
the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force 
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas offshore of 
northern Colombia each night and morning through mid week. In the 
remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will also support 
moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas through the 
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated surface trough persists over the central Atlantic
from 31N48W to near 20N50W. A broad upper level low is also
centered near 26N49W, and is aiding in the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 31N
between 42W and 51W. A pair of surface troughs are also analyzed
over the eastern Atlantic, one from 28N21W to 18N27W and the other
from 31N10W to near 17N22W. Another upper level low appears to be
centered near 24N25W, with these three features resulting in
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 28W
between 13N and 29N.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a cold front enters the discussion
waters near 31N71W and extends to the FL coast near Cape
Canaveral. No notable convection is associated with this front.
Otherwise, a trade wind regime persists across much of the
Atlantic, with recent scatterometer data indicating moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas confirmed by altimeter data
prevailing across much of the Atlantic E of 50W, as well as S of
20N between the Lesser Antilles and 50W. Gentle to moderate NE
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. 
 
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 
31N73W to Palm Bay, Florida and will reach from near Bermuda to 
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the 
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by 
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina 
coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast 
to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, 
winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a 
stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast 
Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of 
Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and 
building seas through Fri night. 

$$
Adams