Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 281543
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1543 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Tropical Storm Dolly no longer has a closed 
circulation and is now a tropical wave. Remnants of Dolly is 
centered near 15.0N 46.9W at 28/1500 UTC or 870 nm E of the 
Leeward Islands, moving W at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with 
gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, the remnants should be 
nearing the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday. The winds 
associated with the remnants of Dolly are expected to decrease 
below tropical-storm force on Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward 
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This 
heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain 
of the Leeward Islands.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
depicted in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is approaching the Leeward Islands and is along 
60.5W, south of 21N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
showers are found over the Leeward Islands. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 21N, 
moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are found near the northern portion of the 
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 10N27W to 08N37W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 10N to 13N and east
of 19W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1014 mb low pressure along with a surface trough has
developed over the northern Gulf ahead of a stationary front over
the southern and SE United States. This complex system continues 
to supports scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern 
and eastern Gulf waters. Moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 
ft are present in the Bay of Campeche, while a weak pressure 
gradient elsewhere maintains light to gentle winds and slight 
seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
waters into early next week, supporting moderate or lighter winds
and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off
western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface 
trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A nearly- 
stationary front will meander near the northern Gulf waters during
the next few days producing a few thunderstorms. Mariners can 
expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with the stronger 
thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores supports fresh to
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas 
are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and Windward
Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
occurring in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Dolly no longer has a closed
circulation and is now a tropical wave. At 11 AM EDT, the Remnants
of Dolly are near 15.0N 46.9W, moving west at 22 kt. Maximum 
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum 
central pressure is 1008 mb. Dolly will move to 15.6N 50.3W this 
evening, 16.4N 54.7W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. These
remnants will bring gale conditions to Atlantic waters E of the
Leeward Islands Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure north of the 
islands will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and 
rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through the 
weekend. Winds will diminish some early next week, before 
increasing again midweek as the ridge builds back in. Winds will 
freshen up in the eastern Caribbean early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
the remnants of Dolly centered well east of the Leeward Islands.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters
between Bermuda and the Greater Antilles, especially between 62W
and 73W associated with an upper level low moving across the
Bahamas. At the surface, a broad subtropical ridge supports
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across
much of the SW North Atlantic.

Aside from the winds associated with Tropical Storm Dolly, trades
are moderate to locally fresh across the central and eastern tropical
North Atlantic with moderate seas. However, a tighter pressure
gradient sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-8
ft north of 19N and east of 22W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Dolly no longer has a closed
circulation and is now a tropical wave. At 11 AM EDT, the Remnants
of Dolly are near 15.0N 46.9W, moving west at 22 kt. Maximum 
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum 
central pressure is 1008 mb. Dolly will move to 15.6N 50.3W this 
evening and 16.4N 54.7W Sat morning. For waters N and E of the
remnants of Dolly, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N 
Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to 
locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. $$ KRV