Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 301649
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Recent scatterometer and
altimeter passes confirmed a large area of fresh to strong
easterly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in a long plume across the
eastern and central Atlantic from roughly 20N to 28N between 15W 
and 50W. These winds and seas are between strong high pressure 
north of the area and a trough near 51W extending from 15N and 
25N. Scatterometer data also indicated locally near-gale force
winds near the trough. The trough will continue to move to the 
W-NW at 20 to 25 kt and pass north of the Leeward Islands by mid 
week. Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given 
the long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will 
support seas building to 12 to 13 ft today and Mon over an area 
from 22N to 28N between 45W and 55W. Winds and seas will diminish 
after late Tue, but 8-10 ft seas will persist across tropical 
Atlantic waters east of 60W through the latter part of the week.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and 
continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 03N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 07N between
10W and 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A new cold front has entered the NW Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, the
front extends from Vermilion Bay, LA to Padre Island, TX. Fresh to
strong NE winds are behind the front, with building seas of 5-7
ft. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. A surface
trough is analyzed in the east central Gulf, from 23N to 27N along
88W. Locally fresh E winds, and seas to 6 ft, are analyzed near
the trough. Scattered showers and tstorms are also near the 
trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E winds and 3-5 ft seas 
prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to stall Mon night into 
Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas and move 
northeastward across the southeast U.S. into the northwest 
Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther 
into the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf through
mid-week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead, 
expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low 
pressure moves northeastward. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15N between 72W and 
76W, ahead of a broad upper trough reaching from the Windward 
Passage to southern Nicaragua. The latest satellite scatterometer 
data indicates fresh to strong NE winds within the Windward 
Passage. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, moderate or weaker trades
and 3-6 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will 
support moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds across most of
the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will
diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking ahead, 
expect fresh NE winds again over the north-central Caribbean and 
off Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds over the eastern 
U.S. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a 
Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front from 31N60W to 26N74W, just east of the
northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 31N
between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are north of 25N
between 60W and 80W. The latest satellite scatterometer
data indicates fresh to strong NE winds on approach to and within
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, outside of the area described in
SPECIAL FEATURES, moderate or weaker trades and 4-7 ft seas 
prevail across the Atlantic Basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will 
dissipate later today, and high pressure north of the front will 
shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak 
front will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas 
north of 29N and west of 75W late Mon and Tue as low pressure 
moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, 
these strong southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into 
Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast 
Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from Bermuda to 
South Florida by late Wed, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by late
Thu. Meanwhile, as described in SPECIAL FEATURES, strong winds 
and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the 
waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue night. 

$$
Mahoney