Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 262303
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Feb 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING
for the Canarias Offshore Zone. The forecast calls for N to NE 
winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts 
between the Canary Islands through at least 28/0000 UTC. Seas 
currently range from 12 to 14 ft based on a recent altimeter 
pass. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas remain
8 to 11 ft in NW swell across all central and eastern Atlantic 
waters east of 60W based on several altimeter passes. One of them,
shows seas of 10 to 14 ft N of 14N and E of 20W. Another swell 
event with very rough seas will reach the Madeira and Canary 
Islands early next week. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds, 
with surges to near-gale force, will sustain 8 to 11 ft seas 
elsewhere, as strong subtropical high pressure maintains a tight 
pressure gradient across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 
the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from the Equator to 08N between 
05W and 20W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

The Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge across Florida into
the Gulf of America, and provides for moderate to locally fresh 
SE to S winds across the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the 
NW Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft
in the Bay of Campeche, and offshore Florida S of 29N. 

For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow across the West 
and central portions of the Gulf will gradually diminish into 
this evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the 
NW Gulf early Fri. This cold front is expected to sink slowly 
southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night
and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will build 
back across the basin Sun into early next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low
supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt offshore Colombia. Seas 
are 8 to 9 ft with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh trades 
and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean while mainly 
moderate SE winds with moderate seas are noted over the NW part 
of the basin. Seas are locally higher, to 8 to 9 ft, within 
Atlantic Passage between the Lesser Antilles and the Mona 
Passage, due to long period northerly swell from the Atlantic.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the area and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh
to strong winds across the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, mainly 
moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Rough seas in mixed swell 
will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic through early next week. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W, and a Significant Swell
Event continues to affect the waters over the central and 
eastern Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for
more information. 

High pressure dominates the entire Atlantic forecast waters with
a 1033 mb center located W of the Azores. Under the influence of
this system, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted
across most the waters E of 60W with moderate to fresh winds W
of 60W. A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary is
analyzed from 28N62W to the central Bahamas. A few showers are 
near the trough axis. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell dominate 
the waters S of a line from 31N62W to 22N72W to 19N68W. Seas of 
4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will remain in control of
the weather pattern across the region through Fri. The areal 
coverage of the rough seas over the SE waters will gradually 
decrease through Thu night, with a smaller area of rough seas 
continuing over portions of the SE waters through the end of the 
period. A weak front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat 
and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 
65W through Sun night before dissipating. 

$$ 
GR