Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;470432
AXNT20 KNHC 130500
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 36W from 03N to 14N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Most of the nearby convection is 
associated with the ITCZ as described below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 11N15W and continues SW to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 50 nm of the 
coast of Africa between 05N and 11N. Scattered moderate 
convection is present S of 02N and W of 21W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay to a 1013
mb low near 29N86W. A cold front then extends from the low into
the SE Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring between the cold front and the W 
coast of Florida N of 24N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are N
and W of the fronts and surface low, while gentle or weaker winds
prevail to the S and E of the fronts. Localized areas of strong E
to NE winds in the far NE Gulf are confirmed by scatterometer 
data. Slight seas prevail across the basin, except for locally 
moderate seas near Veracruz.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends across central 
Florida to a 1013 mb low near 29N86W from which transitions to a 
cold front that extends SW to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The 
cold front will stall briefly tonight and exit the SE Gulf by Wed 
night. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side 
of the front, except in the vicinity of the low where fresh to 
strong winds are likely as indicated by recent scatterometer data.
High pressure and quiescent conditions will build behind the 
front on Wed and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter
the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. 
Otherwise, southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong 
trade winds and 5-7 ft seas across the south-central to southwest
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and 
eastern Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the 
remainder of the waters including the majority of the western 
Caribbean. No significant convection is noted in the basin, except
just offshore Panama and Costa Rica near the monsoon trough 
extending along 10N from the eastern Pacific Ocean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to 
strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, 
with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the 
remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong 
in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with 
rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from midweek
through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N68W to central Florida with 
fresh to strong NE-E winds and 5-9 ft seas in N-NE swell N of the
front. Scattered moderate convection is seen N of 25N and W of 
60W, enhanced by an upper level trough. The remainder of the 
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge 
anchored by high pressure located well N of the discussion waters.
Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail S and E of a 
line running from the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Canary 
Islands. Areas N and W of this line and away from the stationary 
front are seeing moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas 
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
31N68W to just south of Cape Canaveral, Florida will lift north of
the area by Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
expected west of the front with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms along the front. Another weak cold front will move 
off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W 
Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the 
area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of 
the front. 

$$
Adams