Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150013
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu May 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from 12N 
southward, and moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a 
very dry surrounding environment marked by a dense area of Saharan
Air Layer (SAL) as seen in the GOES-E dust and GEO color imagery.
Widely scattered moderate convection are seen within 30 nm of 
05N26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 13N southward, 
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident
from 02N to 04N between 46W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near coastal border of
Mauritian and Senegal, then curves southwestward to 06N24W. An 
ITCZ runs westward from 04N28W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The southeastern end of a cold front reaches southwestward from
Great Bahama Bank across the Florida Straits to the northern 
coast of western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are occurring near the northern coast of central 
Cuba and adjacent Florida Straits. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high at 
the northwestern Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf with gentle N
to NE to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft, except moderate winds 
near the coast of western Florida, northern Yucatan Peninsula and 
southeastern Texas/northeastern Mexico. 

For the forecast, a weak cold front is forecast to enter the
northeastern Gulf tonight and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on 
Fri. SE winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh over the 
western half of the basin this weekend and into early next week as
the pressure gradient tightens between the western extension of 
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in west 
Texas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tight gradient between a strong ridge at the western Atlantic near
23N and lower pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh
to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central
basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Light to gentle winds and
1 to 3 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate with
locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades across the central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia will persist
through Mon. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the 
remainder of the Caribbean Sea, except pulsing to strong in the 
Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Rough seas in large E 
swell will continue to impact Atlantic waters near the Lesser
Antilles through late Sun, then begin to subside on Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from northwest of Bermuda
across 31N70W to beyond the Great Bahama Bank. Scattered moderate
convection is evident near and up to 250 nm southeast of this
boundary, including the northwest and central Bahamas. A weak
stationary front near 31N between 46W and 56W is triggering patchy
showers north of 30N. Convergent trade winds are producing
scattered moderate convection off the coast of Suriname and 
French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the 
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found
near the cold front, north of 28N between 61W and 70W. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate NE to SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas exist north
of 27N between 35W and the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia
coast. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are
noted near the Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Moderate to fresh
with locally strong NE to E trade winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
sink a bit southward, and reach from near 31N69W to 26N72W to the
northwest Bahamas Fri. Afterward, it should become a weak 
stationary front from near 31N62W to 26N70W early on Sat, and then
dissipate by late Sat night. High pressure north of the area 
will shift eastward while it strengthens some. This will cause 
fresh to strong southerly winds over the central and eastern 
waters north of 27N through Fri while gradually lifting north of 
the area.

$$

Chan