Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 250543
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N16W and 
continues southwestward to 11N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from 
11N18.5W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
east of 30W from 05N to 20N, with fresh to strong NE winds
occurring in the strongest convection. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are also occurring W of 50W between 15N and
the coast of South America.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Big Bend of Florida to
near 29N86W, where it transitions to a warm front that extends
into SE Louisiana. No significant convection is seen with these 
fronts.

For the forecast, a cold front is approaching the NW Gulf waters,
along with strong showers and thunderstorms. A warm front is 
lifting northward over the NE Gulf ahead of the aforementioned 
cold front. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast 
tonight supported by the gradient between low pressure over 
northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds 
will diminish Tue ahead of the aforementioned cold front. A 
stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary
early Wed, then move into the NW Gulf. The cold front will then 
sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, 
followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into
the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany 
the frontal boundary. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft continues to support widely scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as 
off Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. This latter area of
convection is likely enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough
which also extends across the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE 
winds prevail in the central Caribbean, strongest offshore 
northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as confirmed 
by an earlier altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E 
winds and mainly moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of 
the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh 
to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean 
through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and 
highest seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly 
at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will 
support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through 
the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW 
Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N60W to near 27N77W, where
it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral,
FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft follow these fronts. Farther 
east, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is near 30.5N48W. A surface 
trough extends from this low to 21N48W. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are present north of 21N between 43W and 
49W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from 
29N21W to 26N25W to 21N26W to 16N30W. More scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and the west 
coast of Africa. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to 
locally strong winds N of the trough, driven by the pressure 
gradient between the trough and high pressure to the north.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned
features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two 
regions, one north of 20N between 35W and 65W, and the other in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients
in these areas.
 
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 
31N60W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 31N52W to 27N63W by 
Tue morning, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north. 
High pressure located off the Carolinas will shift eastward 
following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to 
east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger 
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed 
night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building 
seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure 
gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing 
winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during 
the upcoming weekend.

$$
Adams