Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 020957
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 21N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along 
the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the wave axis. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 73.5W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring near the Windward Passage and over the waters between
Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti as well as in the lee of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and dives 
southwestward to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 10N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ, as well as
from 07N to 10N between 30W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across much of the eastern Gulf. A 1015 mb surface 
high pressure is centered near 25N85W. This pattern is supporting
fresh to locally strong W to SW winds and 3-6 ft seas off the 
northern Gulf coast, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 
1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in 
control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle 
to moderate winds for the next several days. The exceptions will 
be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan 
peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern 
Gulf, where an inland cold front will induce moderate to fresh W 
to SW winds through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
will continue over much of the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W into 
the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front 
approach the Gulf coast. 


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over Costa Rica, 
Panama, and southern Nicaragua. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient 
between the subtropical ridge situated in the central Atlantic and
lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong E
winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. Winds are near
gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela, confirmed by scatterometer
data from earlier this evening. Moderate to fresh easterly trade 
winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the eastern 
Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an enhanced pressure gradient across the 
Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin
through much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave,
currently over the central Caribbean near 73W, is accompanied by 
scattered moderate convection near the Windward Passage and the 
nearby waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola as well as in 
the lee of Cuba. The wave will continue quickly moving westward 
across the remainder of the basin through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs
result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much
of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the 
subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high
pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of 
the basin. Fresh to strong trades continue pulsing along the
northern coast of Hispaniola. In the waters offshore the SE US
coast, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring in advance of a cold
front currently inland.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending 
from the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will change 
little through Tue, then lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the 
forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds 
ahead of the front, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to 
strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through
the period. 

$$
Adams