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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;761113
AXNT20 KNHC 180959
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon May 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 11N,
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 07N and between 19W and 25W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 13N,
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is
observed near the wave axis.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present
near the wave axis in the Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then continues
southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 01N41W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 28N
and 37W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge over the
Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico sustain fresh SE winds
and moderate seas over much of the western and south- central Gulf
waters. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail. No convection is present in the basin.
Agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America are causing
hazy conditions in the western Gulf waters, with the worst
conditions occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Mariners are advised
to use caution due to decreased visibilities in these waters.
For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend
a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through late week. Expect
moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week
between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also
expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan
peninsula during the evenings through mid-week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Divergence aloft is sustaining scattered moderate convection in
the vicinity of Hispaniola, the Windward Passage, and in the
waters between Cuba and Jamaica. A tight pressure gradient between
the subtropical high to the north and low pressure over Colombia
is supporting strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft in the central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Wed, with moderate to
fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough
seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time.
Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical
Atlantic waters into Tue night, then begin to subside.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends southwestward from 31N59W to 25N71W.
Coupling with an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic,
scattered moderate to isolated convection is occurring north of
21N and between 65W and 73W. Most of the basin is dominated by an
extensive subtropical ridge centered near 31N36W. The pressure
gradient between this high and low pressure along the monsoon
trough and ITCZ is leading to fresh trades S of 23N, with gentle
winds to the north. Moderate seas generally prevail, although an
area of rough seas exist from 05N to 22N W of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and rough seas
with E swell east of the Leeward Islands and N of Hispaniola
today. A weak surface trough from E of Bermuda to around 25N72W
will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place
through mid- week.
$$
Konarik
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