Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;545874
AXNT20 KNHC 130614
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Feb 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front curves
southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N62W to near Port
Pierce, Florida. Gale-force SW winds ahead of this front have 
decreased to between strong and near-gale this evening. However, 
the combination of wind waves and existing large NW swell will 
maintain seas at 12 to 13 ft, north of 29N between 57W and 63W 
through late tonight. As the front weakens further Friday morning,
it will allow seas to drop below 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast just
north of Conakry, then reaches southwestward to 05N19W. An ITCZ 
continues from 05N19W across 00N33W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 06N east of 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is present farther west near the 
ITCZ from 00N to 04N between 24W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front meanders northwestward from central Florida to
the Florida Panhandle, then turns westward across the coastal
areas of Mississippi, Louisiana, and southeastern Texas. Together
with a 1017 mb low pressure south of New Orleans, Scattered
showers are occurring north of 28N across the northwestern and
north-central Gulf. Confirmed by local observations, patchy fog is
seen along the coast of southern Bay of Campeche with local
visibilities down to 6 nm. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high at the
northwestern Gulf is providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 
ft seas for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high will remain in control 
across the Gulf through Fri, bringing in general light to gentle 
winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh easterly winds 
across the eastern Bay of Campeche through Sun. Southerly return 
flow will increase to between fresh and strong Fri night into Sat
ahead of a cold front that will move across the western and 
central Gulf Sat night and Sun. Strong S to SW winds and rough 
seas are expected in the north-central and northeastern Gulf with
this frontal system on Sun. Afterward, the front is forecast to 
move southeast of the area on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough is causing patchy showers at the central basin. A
trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin, with fresh
to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft at the south-central
basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate
the southwestern, north-central and eastern Gulf, including the 
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Mainly gentle NE winds and 3 to 
5 ft seas are noted at the northwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, pulsing winds to near gale-force are expected 
near the coast of Colombia again tonight due to the pressure 
gradient between existing large swell the Colombia/Panamanian low
and high pressure centered N of the region. Winds will continue 
to pulse to strong nightly thereafter, with moderate to rough 
seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will 
prevail through the upcoming weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for
Significant Swell. 

A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda 
across 31N62W to near Port Pierce, Florida. Scattered showers are
seen near and up to 100 nm south and east of this feature. Further
southeast, convergent southerly winds are aided by modest
divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms near the northeast coast of Hispaniola, and
northeast of the Leeward Islands. To the northeast, scattered
moderate convection is seen from 25N to 28N between 49W and 58W.
At the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front reaches
southwestward from near Madeira across 30N20W to near 25N43W.
Patchy rain is found near and up to 100 nm south of this boundary.
refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are evident
north of 28N between 48W and 63W. To the south, gentle to moderate
S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found from 20N to 28N
between 50W and 60W. Farther west from north of 20N and west of 
60W gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate NW swell exist.
For the central Atlantic north of 20N between 35W and 50W,
moderate to fresh E to SSE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft dominate.
For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N and west of 35W,
moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to near-gale winds will 
spread east through tonight, then diminish Fri as the front 
weakens. The front will reach from 31N53W to the Windward Passage 
by Sat morning. High pressure will follow the front. On Sun, S 
winds will increase to strong offshore northern and central 
Florida, in advance of another cold front that will move off the 
southeastern U.S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and 
building seas are expected in the wake of the front.

$$

Chan