Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 012246
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NE Atlantic Significant Swell: Residual NW swell will maintain 
seas near 12 ft in the NE Atlantic north of 28N and E of 40W. 
These seas will subside below 12 ft tonight.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends just offshore Africa along 10N to 
around 15W. The ITCZ stretches along 06N from 11W to 42W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 
04N to 07N between 11W and 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convection associated with a weakening surface trough in the
western Bay of Campeche diminished this afternoon, leaving the
basin dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 26N91W.
This is inducing mainly gentle anticyclonic flow basin-wide, with
slight seas. 

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will 
prevail over the basin through Fri morning as high pressure builds
over the central Gulf of America. Fresh to locally strong SW to W
winds and moderate seas will develop over the northern Gulf on 
Fri as a warm front, associated with a low pressure system moving 
through the southern U.S., lifts northward. A cold front trailing 
the low is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sat, leading to 
moderate N winds behind the front. High pressure will build over 
the basin in the wake of the front Sun into next week

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough that extends from just south of Haiti to just
offshore Colombia is inducing scattered moderate convection within
150 nm S of Hispaniola. Earlier convection in western Caribbean 
waters has diminished this afternoon. 

The dominant winds over the basin are fresh NE, but strong N winds
are ongoing offshore Nicaragua, and strong E winds are present
offshore western Venezuela. In addition, gentle to moderate winds
are present in the NE basin, near the Yucatan Peninsula, and in 
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 8 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the 
NE Caribbean. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate 
seas will prevail over the central and western Caribbean, 
including through the Windward Passage, through Fri as high 
pressure builds over the Gulf of America. Locally strong N winds 
will be possible offshore of Nicaragua through late this evening. 
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the
south-central basin through Sat as low pressure anchors over 
northern Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
then expected over much of the Caribbean Sun into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on very 
rough seas in the NE Atlantic.

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic across 
31N54W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection is along and up to
90 nm E of this boundary, with more scattered moderate convection
being caused by converging low-level southerly winds from 22N to 
28N between 54W and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section 
for additional convection in the Atlantic basin.

Behind the cold front, N of 26N, fresh W winds are ongoing, with
ahead of the cold front, N of 25N and E to 50W, moderate to fresh
SW winds are present. Rough seas are occurring in both areas of 
higher winds. In the NE Atlantic, another cold front extends from 
the Canary Islands to just NW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Fresh to 
strong NW winds and rough seas follow this front to the N of 25N. 
Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail, and winds are moderate or 
weaker, except for a zone of fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas from 
05N to 15N between 30W and 55W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will progress east
through the evening, with moderate to fresh SW winds E of the
front, and N of 28N. Rough seas associated with this front, north
of 27N and east of 60W, will slowly subside from west to east by 
late tonight. Elsewhere, fresh W winds and locally rough seas 
occurring well offshore of northern Florida will expand eastward 
today as a cold front passing north of the waters moves eastward. 
Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are 
expected to develop offshore of northern and central Florida on 
Sat, ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. 
The front is forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic 
later this weekend, supporting fresh N winds and locally rough 
seas behind the front. These winds and seas will expand 
southeastward into early next week. 

$$
Konarik