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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;438921
AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Feb 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell ranging
from mainly 12 to 16 ft with 12 to 18 second periods covers much
of the area north of 20N between 22W and 57W. A Sofar buoy
indicated 16 ft near 26N41W. The swell is the result of both storm
and gale force winds associated with two low pressure systems across
the north-central Atlantic. The swell will continue to decay
slowly from west to east, allowing for these seas to drop below
12 ft (4 m) for most areas by early Wed evening. Mariners are
urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.
South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tightening pressure
gradient between building high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and Panama is
supporting fresh to near gale-force winds across most of the
central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters
south of Hispaniola into Wed night. Winds will pulse to minimal
gale-force tonight and again on Wed night offshore Colombia. Seas
with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 12 ft (2.5 to 3.5
M) range.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and
continues to 01N15W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to
00N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 02S
to 08N between 06W and 17W, and from 01S to 06N between 39W and
52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends across the Gulf, anchored by a 1025 mb
high pressure that is centered northeast of the Bahamas near
28N72W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively
lower pressure along Mexico is generally allowing for gentle to
moderate SE flow across the basin, with the exception of locally
fresh SE winds offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula and
Veracruz. Seas basin-wide are 2 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate the Gulf
waters through the end of the week, bringing mainly gentle to
moderate southerly flow and slight to moderate seas. Locally
fresh winds are expected tonight just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Southerly winds are likely to increase this weekend ahead of an
approaching cold front that is forecast to move across the western
Gulf Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will
follow this front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.
Strong high pressure anchored by a 1025 mb high NE of the Bahamas
is building a ridge southward into the northern Caribbean, which
is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE winds over the central
Caribbean, Windward Passage, lee side of Cuba and NE Caribbean.
Seas across the central Caribbean are 8 to 11 ft, mainly due the
winds, but with also a component of northerly swell slipping
through the Mona Passage from the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and moderate seas to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support fresh to strong winds across most of the central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between
Cuba and Jamaica, into Wed night. Winds will pulse to gale-force
tonight and possibly again Wed night offshore Colombia. Meanwhile,
large NW to N swell will continue to impact the Mona Passage,
Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters through Wed
creating hazardous marine conditions. Late this week into the
weekend, the pressure gradient will relax, leading to moderate to
fresh trade winds dominating the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
central Atlantic significant swell event.
Surface high pressure and associated ridging continue to dominate
the subtropical western and eastern Atlantic waters. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas are present over the
waters S of 22N and W of 55W, except for locally strong winds in
the approaches to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds
and moderate to rough seas are also present N of 29N, in the
periphery of the high center. Between the two ridges, a cold front
extends from 31N36W SW to 21N63W with a pre-frontal trough
extending further SW to just N of the Gulf of Venezuela in the
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front to
30W while NE winds of the same speed are ongoing between the coast
of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Otherwise, long-period and
large NW swell continue to affect the tropical Atlantic waters
with rough seas to 12 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure NE of the Bahamas
will shift NE and exit the region by Wed evening. Moderate to
fresh SW winds over NE Florida offshore waters will reach fresh to
strong speeds by Wed morning ahead of the next cold front forecast
to exit the Carolinas. The tail of the cold front will reach the
northern offshore waters Wed night, supporting the continuation of
fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough seas as the front extends
from 31N61W to the northern Bahamas Thu evening before moving E of
55W by Fri night. Looking ahead, more strong SW winds are possible
offshore the SE U.S. starting Sun, ahead of a trailing cold front.
$$
Ramos
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