Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 121014
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to gale-force off the 
coast of Colombia through this morning. Rough to very rough seas 
are expected with these winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 70W
south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are depicted along the wave axis from 
11N to 13N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 18N16W and 
continues southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W
to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ
and W of 47W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward
across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly 
low-level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture
into the basin. Scattered showers are noted over the central 
Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds 
east of 88W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail west of 
88W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain N of the area 
through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf 
waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and 
locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Elsewhere, 
high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE 
winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the 
Yucatan Peninsula each night.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. 

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the 
Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal gale-force 
offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with these winds. 
Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. 
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate the 
eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds in 
the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin where
moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with 
embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between 
high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern
South America supports gale-force NE winds and rough seas over 
the south central Caribbean through this morning, and strong to 
near-gale trade winds across the central portion of the basin 
through the weekend. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse 
to strong each evening through the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers 
and thunderstorms across the waters N of 24N between 53W and 64W.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 
broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh winds 
south of 23N and moderate seas, except for strong winds north of 
the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh
trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. 
Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola 
and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
ERA