Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;067699
AXNT20 KNHC 121757
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest AL92:An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with 
a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a 
tropical depression will likely form while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the 
next 48 hours. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is east of the Cape Verde Islands, and is along 
22W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted ahead of this wave from 06N to 13.5N between 
20W and 28W.

See the Special Features section above for information on a
tropical wave along 38W. Low pressure near 10.3N38W associated 
with this wave is likely to develop into a tropical depression 
over the next couple of days. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 36W and 41W

The axis of a tropical wave is along 61.5W extending southward 
from 18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 60W and 63W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is along 71.5W S of 22N, crossing 
Hispaniola, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring NE of the Hispaniola coastal waters.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W, S of 21N, extending 
through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern 
Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 21.5N and W of 
85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends
southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10.3N38W to 10N48W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 11N59W. Aside from the convection 
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 44W and 47.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf 
region, where a 1019 mb high is found near 28N84.5W. A surface 
trough has moved westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into 
the central Bay of Campeche, and is supporting scattered moderate
convection over the western half of the Bay of Campeche south of 
19.5N. Light winds prevail across the NE Gulf near the high 
center, while gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas 
are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned Atlantic ridge will change 
little through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with 
pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as 
a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula 
westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected 
through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
impacting the basin. 

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the
area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean south of 17N, with associated rough 
seas to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds
are also funneling through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. 
The ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave
currently moving across the eastern Caribbean by night, leading 
to a significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over 
the central and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds 
may increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia Fri night and Sat 
night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central Atlantic.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 14N, anchored by a 
1021 mb high centered near 27N50W. Light to gentle winds prevail 
over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate 
seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N, with 
moderate seas. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds 
extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate across 
the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across this 
area. Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin N of 14N
between Africa and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will sink 
slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, 
before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W,
and south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave 
moving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in 
the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds 
each night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a tropical wave is located about 900 miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic.

$$
KRV