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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;675665
AXNT20 KNHC 161030
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends
from near 31N55W to the SE Bahamas and across western Cuba and the
Yucatan Channel. Strong high pressure across the SE U.S. is
building in behind the front. Winds behind the front have
diminished significantly in the past 12 hours, with fresh to
strong N to NE winds now prevailing north of the front to 28N.
Large NW to N swell generated behind the front continues to spread
into the area waters behind the front, producing seas of 12 to 16
ft at 11 to 13 seconds, to the north of 26N and between the front
and 73W. The large northerly swell will reach the islands of the
northeast Caribbean this evening and tonight as it merges with
easterly trade wind swell moving through the regional waters. Seas
will begin to gradually subside from NW to SE during the middle
of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.
East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period north
to northeast swell mixed with northwest swell continues to affect
most of the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Seas of 12
ft or greater are currently from 10N to 21N between 32W and 50W,
peaking around 13 ft per recent satellite altimeter data. Global
wave models show northerly swell of 12 to 15 seconds mixing with
northeast swell of 9 to 10 seconds across this area. With
persistent fresh to strong northeast trade winds, the area of 12
ft or greater seas is expected to persist this morning before
they slowly subside from NE to SW later today. For information
east of 35W please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo- France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2. For
information west of 35W, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07.5N12.4W and
continues southwestward to 05N22W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 03.5N38W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from the Equator to 06N east of
20W to inland over portions of western Africa. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen from 01.5N to 06N between 03W and
41W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends southeastward across western Cuba, the
Yucatan Channel and into the central Yucatan Peninsula. A
somewhat tight pressure gradient remains over the E and SE part of
the basin where fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail.
Strong to near-gale NE to E winds were present over the Straits
Florida and across the SW Florida coastal waters overnight
according to recent ASCAT data. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are present over all but NW portions of the basin along with
moderate seas. Scattered showers continue along and north of the
front across the Straits of Florida.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will drift southward today.
Fresh NE winds and rough seas across much of the southern half of
the basin will gradually decrease by early Wed. High pressure
will dominate the Gulf region in the wake of the front today
through Thu. The next cold front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf Thu evening and reach from SW Florida to SE Texas Fri
evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front moving through the western Atlantic has begun to
stall from 25N65W through the SE Bahamas, across western Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel and into the central Yucatan. A broad area of
strong high pressure is building in behind. This front has
weakened the pressure gradient south of it, with mainly moderate
to locally fresh trades noted across most of the basin, highest in
the S-central portion where the pressure gradient is the tightest
due to low pressure near the northern coast of Colombia. Seas are
5-8 ft in the central Caribbean due to the persistent fetch of
the trades, and 4-6 ft elsewhere except slightly lower between
Cuba and Jamaica including the approach to the Windward Passage.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is confined to the
far western section of the basin, due to the combination of low-
level convergence of the trade winds along with instability
provided by the close proximity of the eastern Pacific Ocean
monsoon trough that extends eastward across southern Costa Rica
and across Panama. Similar convection is also noted in the Gulf of
Honduras due a surface trough.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and
moderate seas will prevail over the south central Caribbean
through Thu as high pressure shifts eastward into the western
Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough
seas in large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic
waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of
the basin through Thu night. An Atlantic cold front has become
nearly stationary from western Cuba across the Yucatan Channel and
into the central Yucatan and is accompanied by fresh winds and
building seas. This front will drift southward today then stall
and gradually dissipate Wed. High pressure will strengthen north
of the basin Fri into the weekend to bring a return to fresh to
strong trades across the central and southwest Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for more information on
two significant swell events, one for a portion of the northwest
Atlantic waters, and the other in the eastern Atlantic.
A cold front extends from near 31N55W to 25N65W then has begun to
stall through the SE Bahamas, and across W Cuba and the Yucatan
Channel. 1029 mb high pressure across the SE U.S. coast extends a
ridge eastward behind the front, and is forcing fresh to strong N
to NE winds between the front and 28N. Large N swell behind the
front is producing seas of 12 to 16 ft east of 73W and 8 to 12 ft
in N to NE swell to the west of 73W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms continue within 150 nm N and NW of the
front and extend into the Straits of Florida. To the east, high
pressure of 1030 mb is N of the area near the Azores, with an
associated ridge bridging across a dissipating front that extends
from the Iberian Peninsula through 31N17W to 29N34W. This high
combined with lower pressures to the S with the monsoon trough and
ITCZ supports a large area of fresh to strong trades S of 26N and
E of 55W where large NE to E swell prevails as detailed above.
Mainly moderate winds and 6-10 ft seas are present across the
remainder of the open waters N of 26N and E of 60W.
For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds
prevail north of the front to 28N this morning and will generally
persist through Wed before diminishing. The front will drift
southeastward to the east of 65W through Wed, and remain nearly
stationary west of 65W before dissipating late Wed. Large N swell
will continue to build across the regional waters behind the
front through Tue night before subsiding. The Bermuda High will
briefly dominate the regional waters Wed through Thu night as the
front dissipates. Low pressure is forecast to develop along the
frontal remnants Thu, across the far NE offshore zones, and move
northeastward and exit the area Fri. The next cold front will move
into the NW waters Fri, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida Sat morning, the quickly weaken and dissipate Sat night.
$$
Stripling
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