Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;800159
AXNT20 KNHC 022249
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 21N, 
moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
depicted from 13N-16N between 38W-43W. 

A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 
59W, south of 23N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. The wave 
is interacting with an upper-level trough to its west, and 
producing scattered moderate convection from 19N-23N
between 55W-60W.  

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania
near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 10N48W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N48W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is 
depicted from 06N-10N between 15W-33W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1018 mb high centered over the N central Gulf near 29N88W
is leading toward gentle winds across the entire Gulf today.
Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 24N-27N east of 87W
due to an upper-level low.

For the forecast, weak high pressure in place over the region 
will generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas across the Gulf through the next few days. The 
presence of abundant tropical moisture will favor scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf 
through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area 
to a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to locally strong 
trades only in the S central Caribbean with seas 5-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 1-4 ft. A 
surface trough extends from central Cuba to near 20N80W with 
isolated showers and thunderstorms near the trough and over E 
Cuba.

For the forecast, he trough will continue moving WNW through Thu 
night while becoming diffuse. Elsewhere across the basin, the 
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and relatively 
lower pressure in northern South America will maintain mostly 
fresh trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean, 
and over the western portion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat 
night. These trades are forecast to increase to fresh to strong 
speeds while expanding in coverage over the south-central portion 
of the basin beginning Sun. Winds reaching near gale are expected 
Mon night and Tue night near Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Fresh to strong east winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Honduras Fri night and Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the 
remainder of the basin during the period.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a weak 1019 mb Bermuda High at
33N72W and lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is
forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades with seas 3-6 ft. 
The only exceptions are fresh to locally strong NE winds with 
seas 6-8 ft off of the coast of Western Sahara and the Canary 
Islands. In addition to the convection noted over the Atlantic due
to the two tropical waves, a surface trough interacting with an
upper-level low is forcing scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 25N-30N between 74W-79W.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the waters W of about 70W through the rest of 
the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift 
westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains
in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW Sat through
Sun night enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms
over the NW portion of the area. Moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds are over the waters south of about 27N between 70W
and 77W. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will provide for 
generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the 
forecast waters. 

$$
Landsea/Aguirre