Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 071052
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Feb 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A
cold front that extends from 31N51W to the Mona Passage is
inducing gale conditions on both sides of the front along and
north of 30N. Scattered moderate convection is also present in
this area. These gales will diminish this morning as the front
weakens. Another cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast early
this morning will move into area waters today, inducing a broad
area of gales N of 27N between 77W and 50W as the front tracks
eastward through Mon. Winds close to 30N Sat night into Sun night 
may be near storm-force to the S of Bermuda. Very rough seas
generated by these gales combined with swell from storm-force low
pressures to the north will propagate southward to impact most
waters N of 18N into the middle of next week, with peak seas of 30
to 35 ft possible Sun through Sun night closer to 30N to the SE of
Bermuda. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends 
southwestward to 05N17W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward to 
00N32W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1024 mb high centered near 24N91W continues to dominate the 
entire Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are seen across the north-central and eastern Gulf, including the 
Florida Straits. Gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the 
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds in the NE Gulf will diminish as 
high pressure settles over the waters. This high will dominate the
weather through the middle of next week, bringing quiescent 
conditions to the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weakening cold front extends from the Mona Passage to offshore
Panama. Convection associated with this front has dissipated early
this morning. Strong N winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present
behind the front in the SW basin. In the NW basin, moderate to
fresh N winds and moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere, the tradewind
regime has been disrupted by the cold front, leaving light to
gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft remaining. 

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually dissipate into 
tonight. Strong N winds and rough seas will prevail in the SW 
basin behind the front through dissipation. In the wake of the 
front, fresh to strong trades will develop offshore Colombia and 
Hispaniola Sun night, then increase and expand through the central
basin into the middle of next week as high pressure builds N of 
the area. Rough seas will develop in this area of strong winds. 
Additionally, large N to NW swell will impact the Mona Passage, 
Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters beginning on Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale 
Warning and on areas of significant swell.

Outside of the gale warning areas, strong SW winds are ahead of
the central Atlantic cold front, N of 25N and W of 40W. Rough seas
are present in this area. Strong W winds are also present N of 25W
behind the cold front, with rough to very rough seas. Moderate to
fresh trades dominate waters S of 22N and E of 50W, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Rough seas are impacting waters N of 15N
and E of 40W, and S of 10N between 35W and 50W. Elsewhere,
moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds along and N of 30N on
both sides of a cold front that extends from 31N51W to just NW of
Puerto Rico are diminishing early this morning. New gales are 
developing on either side of a reinforcing front that is entering 
the NW waters this morning, and widespread gale-force to near 
storm-force winds will impact waters N of 27N E of 77W this 
weekend as the combined front reaches 31N47W to the Leeward 
Islands Sun. The front will continue moving east through the SE 
waters early next week, with gales gradually subsiding in NE 
waters late Mon. Very rough seas generated by the gales, and 
storm-force winds to the north of the waters, will propagate SE 
and impact much of the waters into early next week, with peak seas
of 30 to 35 ft possible SE of Bermuda Sun. The very rough seas 
are likely to finally depart the region to the east Wed.

$$
Konarik