Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 130431
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous scattered to isolated strong
convection is occurring over NW Colombia and Panama along the
southern portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N35W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N35W to the coast of Guyana near 08N60W. A few
showers are found from 07N to 14N and east of 31W. Similar
convection is present from 06N to 14N and between 49W and the
Lesser Antilles.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft supports a few showers over the north-central and
NE Gulf waters and while similar convection is noted off Veracruz.
A 1022 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf sustains mainly
fresh easterly winds south of 24N and between 87W and 95W. This 
was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in 
these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area
through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern
Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to
strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting 
gentle to moderate SE winds. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central
Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up
to 32 kt off NW Colombia. Seas of 7-10 ft are occurring in the 
central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft
are noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident
in the eastern Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will continue
to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central
Caribbean into mid-week. East winds will pulse strong each 
evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of
the SE Bahamas and between 71W and 75W. Moderate easterly winds
and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and west of 40W.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh
trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing 
strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in 
the Windward Passage.

$$
Delgado