Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 051707
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 25W from Cabo Verde southward to 03N, 
and is moving west at 15 kt. Convection is described in the 
Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35N from 04-17N, moving W at 15
kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section 
below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 02-17N, moving W at 
around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ 
section below.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75-76W, south of 20N, moving W 
at at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues 
southwestward to 10N19W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N19W 
to 08N25W, from 08N27W to 09N34W, from 09N37N to 09N43W, and from
09N46W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 
05N to 12N between 25W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and 
across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a 
weak trough is positioned over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern 
is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. 
Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are 
generally 1-3 ft across the basin. Widely scattered moderate
convection is active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an 
upper trough that extends over the Mississippi River valley. 

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to 
moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds 
over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds 
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed. These winds are the result 
of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to 
moderate seas are expected basin-wide. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the
western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
across the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of
Honduras, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and 
northwest Venezuela, as confirmed in a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. 
Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to 
upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across 
eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level 
divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow 
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coasts
of Nicaragua and Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through Thu night. The aerial extent of
these winds will increase tonight into Mon. Expect winds to reach
near- gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela from today through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will 
continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds 
will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of 
Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night
tonight through Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along 
75W will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms 
over the central Caribbean waters today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is
anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N38W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed
from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis,
and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east 
and south of the ridge axis. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
build westward into central Florida through Thu. This pattern 
will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and 
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are 
likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the 
Windward Passage, beginning tonight.

$$ 
Adams