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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;546905
AXNT20 KNHC 031000
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Aug 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 20N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 07N to 11N between 32W and 37W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, from Puerto Rico
southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 62W and 70W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, southward from the
Gulf of Honduras into Central America, moving westward at around
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Cayman
Islands through the Gulf of Honduras and into Central America.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low
pressure near 15N33W and then to 09N45W. The ITCZ has formed from
09N46W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 11N E of 19W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf
coast. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the basin N of
26N. The Atlantic ridge extends east to west along roughly
23N, from the Florida Straits westward. This pattern is
supporting moderate SW winds in the NE basin north of 25N where
seas are 3-5 ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas
elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate,
promoting gentle winds and slight seas this week. Pulses of fresh
winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night.
Thunderstorms will prevail into mid-week in the northeast basin as
a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid- and
upper-level trough sets up over the region.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
impacting the basin.
The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned
over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central
basin this week. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds
ands seas will prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A deep-layer trough extending down the eastern United States
toward western Cuba is leading aiding in broad ascent, combining
with abundant tropical moisture to induce scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection N of Cuba and W of 70W, including
waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered
near 33N56W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds
and seas of 4-6 ft north of 29N and west of 76W. Another area of
fresh to strong NE winds is in the vicinity of the Canary Islands.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas prevail across much of
the tropical Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds offshore
NE Florida will continue into tonight before diminishing as high
pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough
along the eastern coast of the U.S. will prolong scattered
thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas
early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to
pulse each night offshore Hispaniola.
$$
Konarik
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