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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;807916
AXNT20 KNHC 080503
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to
strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin
through next week. The ridge N of the region will shift
southward over the weekend, increasing the pressure gradient and
accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough
seas will prevail in this area, building to very rough at times
coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands, with
axis along 26W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted S of 10N.
A tropical wave is near 46W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of
10N.
A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 58W,
extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted S of 10N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues
westward to near 11N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N49W to 09N57W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection prevails within 300 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The Atlantic ridge extends across the Carolinas and into the
north-central Gulf. A surface trough is moving westward across
Florida. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and 1-3 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active across the central Gulf.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate most of the
Gulf basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate
E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds
will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a surface trough
migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the waters N of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.
The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located NW
of Bermuda near 33N67W and the Colombian low continues to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, along
with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades are over the
E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed
elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW
basin through next week, with gale-force winds occurring tonight
and Saturday night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of
Colombia. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift
slightly southward, and maintain near gale-force winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will pulse fresh to
locally strong during the evenings and night in the Gulf of
Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the northern
Bahamas and off the northeast coast of Florida, following a trough
currently moving across the Florida peninsula. Broad ridging
dominates the Atlantic north of 25N, supporting E to SE winds and
4-6 ft across the basin, except for fresh to strong NE winds near
the Canary Islands. Saharan dust covers the Atlantic north of 15N
and east of 50W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will shift W-NW
and inland through Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
occurring E of the trough to 76W will shift northwestward behind
the trough through Sat, then persist N of 30N through Sun. Fresh
winds and moderate to rough seas N of the Bahamas and W of 76W
will gradually subside by Sat morning. Otherwise, the Bermuda
High will shift slightly southward through early next week. Fresh
E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the
Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each
evening and night.
$$
ERA
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