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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 050931
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb
high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores near 34N36W
and lower pressures in northwest Africa supports strong to gale-
force northerly winds in the marine zone of Agadir. Scatterometer
data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds off the coast of
Morocco. Gale-force winds are expected to occur through 05/0000
UTC, with severe gusts. These winds will create rough seas of 10
ft and higher. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend.
For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 20W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 08N between
18W and 25W.
A tropical wave is along 45W, south of 12N, moving westward at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident from 04N to 09N between 40W and 50W, more concentrated on
the east side of the wave axis. Moderate to fresh winds are
associated with the wave.
Another tropical wave is along 57W, south of 16N, moving westward
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis S of
11N. This tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands
tonight into Sat increasing the likelihood of showers.
A tropical wave is over the eastern caribbean along 70W, south of
15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited over the
Caribbean waters. Currently, the wave appears to enhance convection
over Lake Maracaibo in western Venezuela.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N27W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N27W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. The convection
in this area is mainly associated with the tropical waves previously
mentioned.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong E to
SE winds over the eastern Gulf and north of a stationary front
that extends across western Cuba into the SE Gulf to near 23N87W.
Similar wind speeds are also noted over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, and in the NW Gulf north of 28N between 92W and 95W.
Moderate to rough seas are within the strongest winds, except in
the Bay of Campeche where slight to moderate seas are noted.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the frontal boundary.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong E to SE winds over the
eastern Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later
today as the Atlantic ridge builds westward across the Gulf
region. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
diurnal trough will allow moderate winds to pulse to fresh,
occasionally strong, during the evenings.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure located
near 34N36W, reaches the NE Caribbean. The ridge, combined with
the Colombian low, supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds
and moderate seas in the south-central Caribbean. Meanwhile, a
stationary front extends across western Cuba and the SE Gulf of
America. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the
front. Farther south, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate
to rough seas are observed in the Gulf of Honduras likely due to
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE of the
United States and a broad are of low pressure in the eastern
Pacific, offshore of Central America. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and
moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the
Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The
exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight. Then, winds will begin to increase again over the central
Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early
next week as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds north of area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the Meteo-France forecast region.
A frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas
and western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are along the front, particularly north of 27N. High pressure
located over the SE of the United States follows this system. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow N of 20N E of front to about 30W. Fresh to strong N to NE
winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 30W.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are S of 20N between
the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate late today
into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern
will allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early
next week.
$$
GR
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