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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;065318
AXNT20 KNHC 201038
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 20 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from
03N to 16N. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 07N
to 13N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm west of the wave from 07N to 11N.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
02N to 16N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm either side of
the wave from 02N to 06N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 18N
to inland Suriname. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within
120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 12N and close to the wave axis
near 05N56W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W south of 19N. It
is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. An upper-level low west
of the wave near 18N84W is providing upper divergence. This is
helping to fire-up scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection west of the wave to near 81W from 15N to 18N. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave over
Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of
Mauritania, and continues southwestward to near 08N27W, then
westward to 07N41W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N46W
and to 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N
between 23W and 33W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Relatively weak high pressure ridging stretches westward from the
western Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf. A
1018 mb high center is along the ridge near 27N84W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge, and a trough that extends from 25N88W
to 22N92W and to inland Mexico at 18N92W has induced mostly fresh
southeast winds offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula, reaching
north to near 26N and between 88W and 92W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with
these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
are over most of the basin west of 88W, while gentle to moderate
or weaker winds remain east of 88W. Both buoy and satellite
altimeter data indicate seas of 4 to 6 ft across the basin, except
for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft over the north-central and
NW sections.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore the Texas coast
from just northeast of Padre Island to near Matagorda Island. This
activity extends east to near 96W. Meanwhile, isolated showers and
thunderstorms, albeit less in coverage than a few hours ago, are
over the southeast Gulf and near the lower Florida Keys.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high pressure
ridge and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern
Mexico will generally support mostly fresh southerly winds over
the western and central Gulf through the weekend. These winds are
expected to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds early next
week. Slight to moderate seas will accompany these winds. Weak
high pressure over the eastern Gulf will support light to
anticyclonic winds and slight seas there through late Mon. A new
high center will become established over the central Gulf by
midweek, with similar conditions expected over much of the basin
at that time.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central
Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over a good portion of
the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds are in the range of 6
to 9 ft as detected by earlier satellite altimeter data passes
across that portion of the sea. Fresh to strong trade winds are over
the Gulf of Honduras surrounding waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over
this area. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7
ft in east swell are over the eastern section of the basin. Gentle
to moderate east to southeast trade winds are over the north-central
and northwestern portions of the sea along with seas of 4 to 6 ft,
except fluctuating at times to 5 to 7 ft over the waters between
Jamaica and 15N and from 18N to 15N between 70W and 76W. Mostly
gentle trade winds are elsewhere along with seas of about 3 to 4 ft.
An area of recently developed scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is southwest of Jamaica from 15N to 17N between
77W and 81W. This activity is developing under upper divergence
provided by an upper-level low near 18N84W as seen in water
vapor imagery. Similar convection is confined to the southwestern
section of the Caribbean south of 11N to along the coasts of Costa
Rica and Panama, primarily due to the close proximity of the eastern
segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area
into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central
Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas
expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
nightly well into the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are
expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the
middle portion of next week. A tropical wave currently east of
the Lesser Antilles near 56W will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sun through late Mon, and across the rest of the basin
through late Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
near the wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Three tropical waves are moving westward between West Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Tropical Waves section for
details on these features.
High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1022
mb high center analyzed near 27N57W. The pressure gradient
between the high and relatively lower pressure to the south,
including near the tropical waves, is sustaining mostly moderate to
fresh trade winds over the majority of the waters south of about 22N
as well as over the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and
Hispaniola. A satellite scatterometer data pass from yesterday
evening revealed fresh to strong north winds over the far eastern
Atlantic between the coast of Africa and 20W from 18N to 24N as a
tight gradient exists there between low pressures over Africa and
the southeast periphery of Atlantic high pressure. Seas are in the
range of 5 to 6 ft over these waters as suggested by a satellite
altimeter pass from last night. Latest scatterometer satellite data
passes indicate that light to moderate winds are elsewhere across
the domain.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed over and near
the central Bahamas and between southeast Florida and Andros
Island. Similar activity is seen north of 29N between 74W and 80W
as a mid to upper-level trough slides eastward east of northern
Florida. Isolated weak showers are north of 29N between 43W and
57W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the relatively weak high pressure
will continue over the basin at least into the early part of next
week. A weak frontal boundary will move offshore northeast
Florida today, then stall and lift north as a warm front tonight
into Sun. Fresh southwest winds north of 29N and between 65W and
74W will diminish this afternoon. Moderate to fresh trade winds
will pulse to strong south of 22N into early next week, then be at
mostly fresh speeds through the rest of the forecast period.
$$
Aguirre
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