Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 200429
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jan 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1034 mb 
high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These 
two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, 
before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage 
flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force 
at night through Thu. Rough to locally very rough seas are 
forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern 
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are 
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a dissipating stationary front extending from eastern Cuba 
to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over 
the NW Caribbean in the wake of the front. This will result in the
continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf 
of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 
inches will be likely. Please consult products from your local 
meteorological services for additional information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas across
much of the basin. The dry continental airmass moving across the
Gulf water suppresses the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the region. The pressure 
gradient between this system and a frontal boundary located over 
the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong northerly winds and 
rough seas across the SE and SW Gulf, including the Yucatan 
Channel. These marine conditions will continue to diminish 
tonight. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the 
United States will bring fresh to strong NE winds and building 
seas, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of 
Florida, tonight through Wed. The next cold front is slated to 
enter the NW Gulf Fri night followed by fresh to strong winds and 
building seas. Gale conditions are possible over the west-central 
waters, including the Tampico area by Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a gale 
warning offshore Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front extends from Camaguey, Cuba to the
Bay Islands and northern Honduras. Scattered showers are evident 
in the Bay Islands and ahead of the front. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured fresh to strong northerly winds behind the
front. Seas in these waters are moderate to rough. The remainder 
of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over 
the central Atlantic. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, 
moderate to fresh easterly and moderate to rough seas prevail 
across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate on Tue.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will persist over 
the NW Caribbean W of the front. By late Tue, strengthening high 
pressure over the SE of the United States will reinforce the 
northerly winds over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Honduras. These marine conditions will improve by Wed. In 
addition, the NE winds will continue to transport abundant 
tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of 
heavy rainfall through mid-week. An area of moisture, currently 
located over the central Atlantic, will reach the Leeward Islands 
on Wed, and Puerto Rico on Thu increasing the potential for 
showers and isolated thunderstorms. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and then to Camaguey, Cuba. A few showers are seen near
this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate to
rough seas are noted behind this boundary. The rest of the basin
is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge near the Azores.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics supports fresh to near gale-force easterly winds
east of 60W and south of 28N. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft.
Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are also
occurring off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail. Divergence aloft is sustaining a few
showers east of the Lesser Antilles, especially south of 21N and
between 40W and 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W 
through Thu. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the 
coast of central Cuba. This feature will prevail in the area, 
then lift N while dissipating by midweek. High pressure building 
over the SE of the United States will reinforce the NE winds to 
fresh to strong speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity 
of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed. 

$$
Delgado