Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 122342
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Mar 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has exited the
southeastern coast of the United States. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and moderate seas are occurring behind the front. Fresh to
strong southerly winds and moderate seas are found ahead of the
front, especially north of 28N and west of 75W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection are evident ahead of the 
front. A Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the NW waters 
for tonight. Peak winds should reach around 35 kt with peak seas 
around 10 ft tonight. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin
to stall as it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida 
tomorrow morning, and conditions will gradually improve tomorrow.

For the gale events above, please read the latest High Seas and 
Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 02N21W. The ITCZ 
continues from 02N21W to 01S30W and to 02S43W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed south of 07N and between
11W and 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Tampa Bay area to 
18N94W in SE Mexico. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 6 
to 9 ft are behind the front. Near gale-force NW-N winds are found
in the western Gulf and off Veracruz. Elsewhere across the Gulf 
ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, the front will stall and significantly weaken 
over the southeastern Gulf tonight into early Fri, dissipating Fri
night. Marine conditions will improve significantly early Fri 
through Sun as weak high pressure settles just N of the basin. 
Another strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun
night and reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon night. Strong to 
near gale-force winds will follow the front along with seas 
rapidly becoming rough. Gale force winds will be possible in the 
NW Gulf, and offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico Mon and Mon 
night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower
pressures in NW Colombia support fresh to strong NE trades just 
north of Colombia, moderate to fresh E trades over the eastern, 
central and SW Caribbean, and moderate or weaker in the NW 
Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft just north of Colombia, 5-7 ft over 
the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, and 2-5 ft over the NW 
Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are affecting the 
Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba, with some of the convection 
over the coastal waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central 
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia 
will support fresh to strong trades across the central basin through 
the rest of this morning. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will also 
pulse near the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and the Gulf of 
Honduras also through the rest of this morning. The high pressure 
will shift eastward today through Fri night, leading to fresh to 
strong winds becoming confined to the south- central Caribbean S of 
13N during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area-
 wide as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will build 
across the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh 
to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N 
Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.

In the western Atlantic, aside from the cold front mentioned in
the Special Features section, a subtropical ridge dominates the
region maintaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. 
Elsewhere, ridging extends west-southwestward to 27N80W from a 
1033 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 36N30W. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is causing 
widespread moderate to fresh trades over the forecast waters with 
seas 4-8 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds are
E of northern Florida ahead of an approaching cold front. That 
front will move offshore of NE Florida by this evening, with fresh
to gale-force winds and quickly building seas behind it Thu 
night. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin to stall as 
it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida Fri morning, then
drift to the NW and dissipate Fri evening. High pressure ridging 
will then prevail across the northern waters Sat and strengthen 
Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to locally strong winds 
and rough seas nearly basin-wide. The next cold front may move 
into the waters off Florida Mon night. 

$$
Delgado