Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 130520
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warnings:
MeteoFrance has issued Gale Warnings for their MADEIRA and
CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through
13/21Z, and for Canarias, the warning is valid through 14/00Z. 
Please visit website: 
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
05N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17.5W to 01N30W to 00N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 11N east 
of 29W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough has been analyzed over the central Bay of 
Campeche to 24N94W, and locally fresh E to NE winds are noted over
the eastern Bay through the Campeche Bank. Elsewhere, a 1021 mb 
high centered over northern Florida extends ridging through the 
Gulf, supporting moderate or weaker winds over much of the basin. 
Locally fresh E to NE winds, observed on recent scatterometer 
data, are noted through the Florida Straits as a moderate pressure
gradient prevails between the ridge and a surface trough over the
northwestern Caribbean. Seas of 1 to 2 ft are observed over the 
northern and northeastern basin via recent buoy data, with 2 to 4 
ft seas noted in the southern and western Gulf. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida 
and the adjacent Atlantic will slide northeastward and into the NW
Atlantic through Sat to produce moderate to occasionally fresh E 
to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the 
basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter the 
northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing strong N to NE winds and 
building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach the
south-central Gulf along 24N/25N by Mon morning, and move south 
of the basin Mon night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Widespread fresh trade winds are noted over much of the 
Caribbean, as a tight pressure gradient prevails between a 1007 mb
low over the south-central Caribbean, a surface trough over the 
northwestern basin and ridging to the north. Recent scatterometer 
satellite data show ongoing strong winds in the south-central 
basin, with locally near-gale force winds noted in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring in the central and 
west-central basin to the west of the strongest winds, with 6 to 8
ft seas noted in the eastern Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft in the 
northwestern basin. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds
and 8 to 11 ft seas, as noted via recent altimeter data, prevail 
over the Atlantic waters and through the passages. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough 
seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning 
due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a 
modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force
at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to 
locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will 
prevail over the Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages 
and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon. A cold front 
will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, accompanied by 
increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is
expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening, then
begin to stall and weaken. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
about the Gale warning in effect over the Eastern Atlantic. 

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N70W, where it transitions 
to a stationary front that continues through the central Bahamas 
and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and 
ahead of the cold front, north of 26N between 53W and 62W. 
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted via 
scatterometer data ahead of the front, while gentle to moderate 
winds prevail to the north. A NW swell associated with this cold 
front is supporting 8 to 10 ft seas north of 28N between 52W and 
70W. Farther west, a 1021 mb high centered near 30N77W extends 
ridging over the northwest tropical Atlantic. The pressure 
gradient between this high and the aforementioned cold and 
stationary fronts is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds north 
of the Lesser Antilles and through the Bahamas. Elsewhere, a cold 
front extends from 31N10.5W through northwestern Africa to 22N20W 
to 25N40W, and strong to gale force winds and 10 to 20 ft seas 
prevail north of the front. Widespread fresh to locally strong 
trade winds and rough seas prevail south of 25N. 

For the forecast, large NW swell is expected north of 28N between
70W and the aforementioned cold and stationary fronts through Sat
morning as the north portion of front drifts eastward. The front 
is forecast to become stationary Sat, then lift northward while 
dissipating. The next strong cold front is slated to move off the 
coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with strong to 
near gale-force winds and quickly building seas expected behind 
the front. The front is forecast to reach from just E of Bermuda 
to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, and from 29N55W to the SE 
Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning. 

$$
ADAMS