Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 192038
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jan 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1034 mb 
high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These 
two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, 
before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage 
flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force 
tonight, Tue night and Wed night. Rough to locally very rough seas
are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern 
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are 
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf 
of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW 
Caribbean in the wake of the front. This will result in the 
continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf 
of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 
inches will be likely. Please consult products from your local 
meteorological services for additional information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 03S38W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 08N east
of 26W, and from 05S to 00N between 26W and 36W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail SE of a line from central
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Mainly gentle to moderate 
winds, and seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds and 
rough seas across the SE and SW Gulf, including the Yucatan 
Channel, will diminish tonight. However, strengthening high 
pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to 
locally strong NE winds and building seas, mainly over the eastern
Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, late tonight through Wed.
Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf
Fri night followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. 
Gale conditions are possible over the west- central waters, 
including the Tampico area by Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a gale 
warning offshore Colombia.

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras. A tight pressure gradient behind the front is
supporting fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas W
of the front. Fresh to strong winds prevail off Colombia, where 
seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 4-7 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, frequent gusts to gale force are forecast at 
night and early morning hours offshore Colombia through Thu. A 
stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras will gradually dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and rough seas will persist over the NW Caribbean W of the 
front. By late Tue, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the
United States will reinforce the northerly winds over the NW 
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. These marine conditions
will improve by Wed. In addition, the NE winds will continue to 
transport abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras 
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through mid-week. Looking 
ahead, an area of moisture, currently located over the central 
Atlantic, will reach the Leeward Islands on Wed, and Puerto Rico 
on Thu increasing the potential for showers and isolated 
thunderstorms. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Cuba. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 5-7 ft are found W of the front. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by high pressure. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 7-12 ft prevail E of 60W, with moderate winds and seas of
6-8 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will 
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W 
through Thu. A cold front extends from near Bermuda to 26N73W 
where it transitions to a stationary front. This feature will 
stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Tue, then lift N
while dissipating on Wed. High pressure building over the SE of 
the United States will reinforce the NE winds to fresh to strong 
speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of the Bahamas 
and the Straits of Florida through Wed. 

$$
AL