Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 051631
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Aug 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 27W from 06N to 17N, moving west at 
around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from
06N to 11.5N between 25W and 29W. 

A tropical wave is along 43.5W from 08N to 18.5N, moving west at 
5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this 
wave at this time. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 82.5W,
extending southward from west of the Cayman Islands, and moving 
west at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is 
noted along and to the west of the wave axis from 09N to 19N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues 
southwestward to 10N27W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W 
to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N 
between 29W and 34W and from 07N to 10N between 36.5W and 42W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 28.5N85W, supporting 
light to gentle winds across most of the basin. A surface trough 
in the Bay of Campeche is producing moderate E to SE winds over 
the SW basin. Seas basin-wide are 1 to 4 ft. A mid- and upper-
level trough is leading to scattered moderate convection over the 
eastern Gulf, and the aforementioned trough is causing scattered 
moderate convection over the western Bay of Campeche. 
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, 
promoting gentle to occasionally moderate winds, and slight seas 
through the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur 
west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, along with moderate 
seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in
the basin. 

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas persist across 
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high 
pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South 
America. Moderate E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
will continue to support strong trades in the south-central basin,
and as the gradient tightenings into the weekend, winds will 
increase to near gale. Rough seas will prevail there, building to 
very rough at times this weekend. Fresh winds will also pulse in 
the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly 
moderate or weaker winds and seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid- and upper-level trough along the SE U.S. coast is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida 
and in the vicinity of the Bahamas. A surface trough extending 
from 24.5N63W to 19N67W is generating scattered moderate 
convection from 19N to 27N between 56W and 67W. Fresh to locally
strong E winds and seas to 8 ft area also occurring in this zone.
In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near- gale N-NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages
of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, with 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid- and upper-
level trough along the SE U.S. coast will keep scattered 
thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the 
Bahamas through at least today. A westward moving surface trough 
will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into tonight, then 
approach the Bahamas Thu before shifting west of the area by late 
Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough 
seas. Weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters 
during the upcoming weekend, bringing tranquil marine conditions. 

$$
KRV