Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 080526
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Feb 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A
cold front is analyzed from near 31N59W to the central Bahamas,
the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of America. Combined seas 
with northwest swell behind the front is resulting in seas of 16 
to 28 ft primarily north of 26N west of the front to near 74W per
buoys and ships observations. Gale-force west to northwest winds 
of 30 to 45 kt are behind the front to near 74W and north of 27N 
as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data passes, and gale- 
force southwest winds of 30 to 35 kt are ahead of the front to 
near 54W and north of 28N. Seas with these winds are 19 to 27 ft 
in west to northwest swell. Widespread gale-force to near storm- 
force winds will impact waters north of 27N and east of 76W 
through Sun night, as the front reaches from near 31N48W to the 
northern Leeward Islands NE offshore waters by Sun morning, then 
begins to weaken from 31N43W to 20N53W Mon night. Gale-force 
winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to strong speeds 
by early Tue morning. Very rough seas generated by these winds 
will propagate SE and impact much of the waters into mid-week, 
with peak seas of 36 ft possible from 30N to Bermuda on Sun. The 
very rough seas are likely to finally depart the region to the 
east by Wed evening. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 08N13W and extends southwestward to near 04N19W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 00N30W and to 
02S43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 02N 
between 28W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba NW to the coast of central
Texas where it then stalls while a 1025 mb high is located over 
the SW Gulf near 22N94W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are
behind the front over the far eastern basin E of 87W. Moderate or
weaker winds are elsewhere across the Gulf with mainly slight 
seas, except for moderate seas over the SE Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through 
the middle of next week, bringing quiescent weather into late next
week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A stationary front extends from the northern Puerto Rico offshore
waters across the Dominican Republic to just offshore Colombia.
Surface ridging building in the wake of the front tightens the
pressure gradient and is currently supporting moderate to fresh
NNE winds per recent scatterometer data. Seas behind the front are
moderate, except rough to 9 ft offshore Panama and Colombia.  

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate 
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
across the SW basin behind the front will diminish Sun, then 
develop offshore Colombia and Hispaniola Sun night. These winds in
the central basin will increase and expand in coverage as high 
pressure builds southward toward the region into the middle of 
next week. In addition, large NW to N swell will impact the Mona 
Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night
through Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Gale 
Warnings and areas of significant swell in the western and central 
Atlantic.

Outside of the Special Feature warning areas, a reinforcing cold 
front has entered the SW N Atlantic waters and extends from 31N66W
to 31N78W. Ahead of the Special Features cold front, a stationary
front extends from 31N44W SW to 22N59W to the Dominican Republic
to the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the
stationary front. The remainder basin is under the influence of a
broad surface ridge, which is anchored by a 1028 mb high near
27N25W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are south of the high
center along with rough seas to 9 ft affecting the waters E of
34W and N of 13N, including the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are ongoing elsewhere across the tropical
Atlantic waters.  

For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds N of 27N and behind
the cold front will spread east as the front progresses, and 
continue to impact the northern waters through Mon. This front 
will merge with the stationary front that is over the SE waters 
by Mon, then move E of the area by Mon night, allowing winds to 
gradually diminish. Very rough seas will impact most of the waters
E of 77W into Tue night, with peak seas along 30N, SE of Bermuda,
exceeding 30 ft Sun and Sun night. 
 
$$
Ramos