Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 090931
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat May 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0925 UTC.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...
A broad subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will force fresh
to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south- 
central Caribbean through midweek next week, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. During the nighttime hours through Sun night, these 
winds are expected to reach gale-force off NW Colombia. Winds will
decrease below gale early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 10N with 
axis near 44W, moving west at 5-10 kt. There is no deep convection
associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 04N17W to 01S49W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 10N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to SE
Louisiana and a few showers are noted across the northern Gulf
waters. Moderate to fresh easterly SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are
evident north of 28N and north of the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, isolated to scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are possible over the northern Gulf waters today and
Sun as the weak stationary front lifts northward. Winds will 
pulse to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through
Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the 
northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from northern Florida to 
the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to locally 
strong N to NE winds. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected off 
Veracruz Mon night. Scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Conditions will 
improve across the basin Tue night into Wed as the front weakens. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features for details on the Gale Warning
off NW Colombia.

Broad high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force easterly 
trade winds and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and 
Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean
will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas 
in the south-central Caribbean through midweek next week, 
including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours 
through Sun night, these winds are expected to reach gale-force 
off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds 
and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras 
through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across 
the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic waters near 31N64W and
continues southwestward to 30N71W, followed by a stationary front
to NE Florida. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
near this boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west
of 55W, is dominated by a weak pressure gradient that supports
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

Meanwhile, broad surface ridging also dominates the central and
eastern Atlantic. In the far NE Atlantic, a wakening cold front 
extends from 31N11W to 24N24W to 29N35W. Moderate to fresh winds 
and moderate to rough seas up to 10 ft are occurring behind the 
front. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the
rest of the central and eastern Atlantic east of 55W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will gradually weaken today as the cold front portion shifts 
eastward and weakens. A stronger cold front is expected to follow 
a similar path Mon through Tue, followed by fresh to locally 
strong winds and rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 
some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible near both 
fronts. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic
will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern 
Hispaniola through Mon night. 

$$
Delgado