Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 152312
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 999 mb low 
pressure located near 32N72W to the northern Bahamas and western 
Cuba. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas 
Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will 
stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany
the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force 
tonight on either side of the front N of 29N. Rough to very rough
seas are also expected ahead and behind the front through Fri. 
Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming 
weekend. 

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends 11N15W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N18W to 02N35W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 01N to 05N between 10W and 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 2100 UTC, high pressure of 1022 mb located over the NW Gulf
extends a ridge across the basin in the wake of a cold front that
has shifted southeast of the area. Fresh to strong NW to N winds
and seas of 8 to 12 ft dominate most of the basin. Cold air
stratocumulus clouds are noted covering the waters S of 27N due
to the advection of cold air over relatively warm waters. A cold
weather advisory has been issued for most of South Florida between
3 am and 9 am. Very cold wind chills in the lower 30s are expected.

For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE
across the Gulf region tonight. A reinforcing front will bring a
surge of fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas over 
the basin this weekend. Gales are possible off Tampico, Mexico 
Sunday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba across the NW Caribbean
into northern Belize and Guatemala. Fresh to strong NW winds and
building seas follow the front. A band of mainly low level 
clouds, with possible showers, is associated with the front in 
this area. Havana, Cuba reported gusty winds to 26 kt with the 
frontal passage. Except for some fresh E trades just north of 
Colombia and Venezuela, winds across the Caribbean are moderate 
or weaker. Seas across the Caribbean are in general 3 to 5 ft. An
band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is noted over the 
central Caribbean, roughly extending from southern Haiti to 
12N79W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this 
convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms are flaring up 
over northern Colombia and parts of Panama.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong offshore of 
NW Colombia Fri night, reaching near-gale force at night starting
Sat night and into early next week. The cold front over the NW 
Caribbean will stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate
on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the 
front later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading 
to increasing winds and building seas across the basin. A reinforcing
front and surge of winds will arrive in the NW Caribbean early 
next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from a 999 mb low pressure
located near 32N72W to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba. A
well defined band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with
the front. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are noted on
either side of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder 
of the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1035 mb center located W
of the Azores. Under the influence of this system, an area of 
fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 12N to 23N and E of 30W 
to the coast of W Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas 
of 8 to 11 ft are within these winds based on a couple of 
altimeter passes. Moderate to locally fresh trades are observed 
across the tropical Atlantic with moderate to rough seas. Gentle 
to moderate winds, and moderate seas are elsewhere. An upper-level
low remains over the east-central Atlantic near 23N40W generating
abundant cloudiness and isolated showers and thunderstorms. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 
31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. 
Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through
Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force tonight on either 
side of the front N of 29N. Another cold front may impact the 
basin late in the upcoming weekend. 

$$
GR