Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;492004
AXNT20 KNHC 162352
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau just south of Bissau and extends south-southwestward
to 05N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to south 
of the Equator at 43W and to near the Amazon Delta region. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 
19W-23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends southwestward from a 1023 mb high near the 
Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh 
southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are present in the 
eastern Bay of Campeche and extending northward to near 24N. Latest 
scatterometer satellite data indicates gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the rest of the basin, 
except for slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southeastern part 
of the Gulf.

For the forecast a ridge across the northern Gulf will remain in
place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to moderate 
east to southeast winds across most of the basin. The exception will 
be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will allow fresh 
to strong winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking ahead, fresh 
to strong north to northeast winds and building seas will follow a 
cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the 
early part of the week. The front will stall from the Straits of 
Florida to South Texas by late Mon and dissipate through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level low dropping southward over the north-
central Dominican Republic is helping to sustain scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic 
and ABC Islands as well as over sections of the northeastern 
Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and vicinity waters. A surface 
trough extends from the western Atlantic to eastern Haiti. 
Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is present across most of the 
sea. Moderate to locally fresh east-northeast to east-southeast 
winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the lee of Cuba, near the 
Windward Passage and near the ABC Islands. Latest scatterometer 
satellite data shows gentle to moderate east-southeast winds 
elsewhere across the basin. Seas are about 2 to 4 ft with these 
winds.

For the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper-level low is 
expected to become absorbed into a trough by early on Fri as the 
trough shifts eastward toward the northeastern Caribbean. The 
surface trough will disrupt the typical pressure pattern across the 
basin during this time. Expect fresh trade winds and moderate seas 
off the coast of Colombia overnight, then mainly gentle to moderate 
winds are expected there during the remainder of the week. Winds and 
seas will generally diminish across the basin as the trough passes 
north of the area Fri through the weekend. Looking ahead, expect 
fresh northeast winds early next week across the Windward Passage 
associated with a late-season cold front moving across Cuba.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough curves southwestward from southeast of 
Bermuda to 24N60W, to a mid to upper-level low over the north-
central Dominican Republic, and southwestward from there to the 
southwest Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 31N63W to the 
Turks and Caicos and to eastern Haiti. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are seen from 20N to 22N between 67W and 71W, 
and from 22N to 24N between 65W and 69W. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in 
the Atlantic Basin.

A 1023 mb high center is analyzed north of the area at 34N68W
while a 1025 mb high center is just north of the area at 32N49W.
High pressure continues to dominate the wind flow pattern 
across the basin, generally north of about 18N and east of the 
Lesser Antilles and also north of 21N and west of 61W. The related 
gradient is providing for light to gentle winds north of 26N between 
35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over 
these waters. Farther south from 20N to 26N and between 35W and the 
Bahamas, gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are present 
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft mainly in an east swell prevail for the 
remainder of the Atlantic Basin. 

Three other surface troughs are analyzed over the basin, however, no 
deep convection is presently occurring with these features.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending from 
eastern Haiti to the Turks and Caicos to southwest of Bermuda will 
move little through Fri, then dissipate through Sat. High pressure 
will build into the area from the east following the trough. Looking 
ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast 
Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building 
seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the 
Straits of Florida by late Mon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by 
late Tue. 

$$
Aguirre