Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 072315
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Mar 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to 
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will 
pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours tonight. Seas of 
8 to 11 ft are expected with the strongest winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N23W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of 05N between 05W and 16W, and
S of 04N between 28W and 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 
moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, including the 
Straits of Florida. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near SE Louisiana, and
over parts of western Florida.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward 
from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek 
next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low 
pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and strong near 
the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and 
slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will
be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front may impact the 
northwestern and north-central Gulf Wed night and Thu with 
increasing winds and seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean,
with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are across the east and central 
Caribbean, in the Gulf of Honduras, and also through the Windward 
Passage. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind
speeds. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range in the south-central 
Caribbean, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central 
parts of the basin. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
prevail elsewhere across the area. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted over the Greater Antilles. Low-topped 
trade wind showers are observed elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High 
and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades 
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds 
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force this 
evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Sun night, then moderate to
fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical
North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through
Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1027 mb 
high pressure located just E of Bermuda, and another 1027 mb high
pressure situated N of the Madeira Islands near 37N18W. Fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas are observed N of 20N and E of 
20W, including the Madeira Islands. Fresh to strong trades are 
also noted from 10N to 25N and W of 55W along the southern 
periphery of the ridge. Seas are 7 to 10 ft with these winds. 
Moderate to fresh winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with 
moderate to rough seas, highest just E of the Lesser Antilles. 
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted across the 
remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong
speeds north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. 
Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the 
central and southeast Bahamas through Mon. Moderate or weaker 
winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly 
fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night 
ahead of a potential cold front. 

$$
GR