Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 282245
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will 
approach waters east of the Leeward Islands Sat as a strong 
tropical wave, bringing gale conditions and very rough seas. 
Strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms will spread into the 
far NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico late this 
weekend into early next week in association with this tropical 
wave.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, moving westward at 
10 to 15 kt. Only a few showers are near the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is along 48W, south of 20N, moving westward around
15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure, remnants of T.S. Dolly, is along 
the wave axis near 15N48W. A cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection is within about 150 nm NW quadrant of low center.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are noted on either side of
the wave axis per scatterometer and altimeter data covering the 
waters from 13N to 20N between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 78W, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection
over parts of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W
to 10N23W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 09N45W.
Convection is limited.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting the
norther Gulf waters, mainly N of 26N. This convective activity 
is ahead of a surface trough, that extends from a 1014 mb low 
pressure located near 29N87W to 27N90W to 28N94W. A weak ridge
dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle
to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 
Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the 
Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or 
lighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with 
moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a 
diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. 
A nearly- stationary front will meander near the northern Gulf 
waters during the next few days producing a few thunderstorms. 
Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with 
the stronger thunderstorms. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores supports fresh to
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas 
are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and Windward
Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
occurring in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will 
approach waters east of the Leeward Islands Sat as a strong 
tropical wave, bringing gale conditions and very rough seas. 
Strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms will spread into the 
far NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico late this 
weekend into early next week in association with this tropical 
wave. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will 
support strong trades and rough seas over the south-central 
Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish some early next
week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure 
gradient, but will increase again by the middle of next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in affect in association the remnants of Dolly.
Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. 

Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, dot the waters 
between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly N of 22N and W of 
65W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this 
convective activity. A ridge dominates the remainder of the 
Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a 1029 mb high pressure 
located SW of the Azores near 36N32W. The ridge supports moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of
the SW North Atlantic. Aside from the winds and seas associated 
with the remnants of Dolly, fresh to strong northerly winds and 
moderate to rough seas are evident N of 20N and E of 18N to the 
coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere under the
influence of the ridge. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the strong tropical wave associated
with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will bring strong 
winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms across the waters S of 22N 
as it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late this 
weekend and spreads toward Hispaniola early next week. Elsewhere,
the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters 
over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off 
northern Hispaniola each night. 

$$ 
GR