Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 282107
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15W and continues 
south-southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues 01N23W to
00N35W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 90 nm on 
either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between 1022 mb high pressure centered near
the Florida Big Bend and a surface trough over the Bay of 
Campeche is leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most
of the Gulf, except gentle within 120 nm of Florida. Locally
strong winds have developed near the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the western basin and 2 to 4 ft
in the east. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support moderate to 
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of 
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate 
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning. 
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off 
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds 
through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern 
portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A strong cold front 
will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from 
northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from 
central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with near 
gale winds possible over the west- central and SW Gulf sections on
Sat. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with these winds Sat and
Sat night, then slowly subsiding Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with upper-level troughing has diminished 
in the eastern basin this afternoon. Moderate to fresh trades
dominate across the eastern, central, and SW basin, with locally
strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Gentle winds prevail in the NW basin, except for pulsing fresh
winds in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to 
fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean through 
Sunday, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected 
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night before diminishing Sunday. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the NW Bahamas, with a pre-
frontal trough to its east from 31N58W to 25N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted ahead of the trough N of 25N and E to
54W. Fresh S winds are noted in this region, with seas of 6 to 9
ft. Beyond the front, fresh NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate N
of 28N, with gentle to moderate mainly N winds and moderate seas
elsewhere W of the front as high pressure centered over Florida
gradually settles toward the waters. 

A weak cold front also is present in the eastern Atlantic from
around 31N28W to 22N38W. Only gentle NW winds are W of this
boundary, with light winds to the E. S of 20N, moderate to locally
fresh trades dominate. Seas over the majority of open Atlantic
waters are moderate, ranging from 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N61W 
to just east of the central Bahamas will move E of 55W on Wed. 
Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida 
on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the
area through Fri afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat. A 
third cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida on 
Saturday. This front will reach from 31N73W to central Florida on 
Sun. 

$$
Konarik