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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 152327
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten 
between surface ridging over the western Atlantic and relatively 
lower pressure in northern South America. This will again favor 
increasing winds in the south-central Caribbean, supporting gale-
force northeast to east winds off Colombia this evening and into
early on Sun morning. Expect rough to very rough seas to near 15
ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml 
for further details.

Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two 
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days. The wave will interact with enhanced divergence 
aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first tropical wave is 
located over eastern Honduras and western Nicaragua, or near 86W.
As this wave continues westward, expect heavy precipitation to 
continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region and into Choc-Colombia 
on into Sun. On Sun, the second tropical wave will enter the 
western Caribbean and strengthen the cyclonic rotation over 
Panama and Colombia that will favor an increase in available 
moisture into Colombia and moist easterly flow into the eastern 
portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest precipitation is expected in 
Costa Rica through the rest of today and into early on Sun, while
the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, the 
Darien Region, and Choc-Colombia Sun into Monday. There is some 
uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach, 
particularly due to how far south the available moisture and the 
westerly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC 
International Desk and local weather services for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W from
05N to 21N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is ahead of the wave to near 33W from 09N to 11W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from
04N to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers 
and thunderstorms are west of the wave to near 47W and from
09N to 15N.

An eastern Caribbean strong tropical wave is along 66W/67W south
of 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 14N to 18N
between 64W and 70W.

A far western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W south of 
22N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is increasing over the southwestern 
portion of basin in the wake of the wave, where the eastern 
segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough is present. The 
convection is of the numerous moderate to isolated strong type 
confined to south of 13N from 80W westward to over most of Costa 
Rica and Panamas as well as southern Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and 
extends southwestward to 15N21W, and to 12N27W to 13N37W and 
southwestward to 08N47W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 
08N53W and to near 09N60W. Convection is discussed in the 
Tropical Waves section above. In addition, numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is just inland the coast of Africa
from 07N to 15N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near 
29N92W. Its related gradient is generally supporting gentle to 
moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas over the 
basin are 2 to 4 ft. A trough extends from near 22N94W to 
18N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen 
west of the trough to 97W from 20N to 23N. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are over some sections of the Gulf from 22N to 26N 
east of 96W. A westward moving mid to upper-level disturbance is 
helping to sustain this activity.

For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the 
north-central Gulf through Mon, then move toward the 
southeastern part of the Gulf by Tue while weakening some. This 
pattern will continue to support mostly gentle to moderate east 
to southeast winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds 
occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the 
Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the southwestern Gulf. Slight 
to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning 
that is in effect for the waters offshore Colombia.

Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and 
rough seas are over most of the Caribbean south of about 
18N. Moderate to locally fresh trades continue over the 
remainder of the waters along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the combination between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in northern South
America will continue to support fresh to strong winds over most
of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to 
minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight.
The tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 86W will 
continue across some sections of Central America tonight, moving
west into the Pacific on Sun. A strong eastern caribbean 
tropical wave, with its axis along 66W/67W will continue to 
impact the eastern Caribbean through Sun, with numerous showers 
and thunderstorms, some heavy with strong gusty winds. These 
weather conditions are forecast to shift westward to the western 
Caribbean Sun through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high center south-southwest of 
Bermuda near 26N69W continues across the basin. Latest satellite 
Ascat scatterometer data indicates fresh northeast winds along the 
coast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands. Seas are 
around 6 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, latest satellite 
scatterometer data passes reveal moderate or weaker trades.
Seas are about 4 to 6 ft with these trades.

Scattered moderate convection is seen from 29N to 30N between 
66W and 71W, and from 30N to 31N between 61W and 66W. The base 
of a broad upper-level trough translating eastward is north of 
31N between 50W and 70W, with impulses riding along it from west
to east. This activity is also south of a stationary front that 
is well north of the area.

Of note: An extensive plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is
spreading westward across most of the basin south of about 28N 
and just east of South Florida and the Keys as noted in the GOES-
derived Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product. From climatology,
the SAL usually becomes evident around the middle of June, peaking 
from late June to mid-August, then begins to rapidly diminish after 
mid-August.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined 
with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will 
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the 
approaches and in the Windward Passage from late this afternoon 
through Sun night. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push 
across the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, and 
move across the northern forecast waters on Mon while dissipating
into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds 
are expected ahead of the front and east of about 70W on Sun and
Sun night. 

$$
Aguirre


 

 



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