Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;917131
AXNT20 KNHC 302236
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters
between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A 
tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either 
side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of 
Bermuda to near 29N, and between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- 
gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to 
numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of
the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front
weakens and high pressure builds in its wake.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 19W, south of 
16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 11W and 22W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 17N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is observed S of 12N to well inland across Venezuela, between 57W
and 65W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W-76W, south of 
16N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen S of 11N between 73W and 79W. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15.5W and continues southwestward to 
05.5N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N22W to the coast of Brazil
near 04N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
seen from 02N to 09N between 11W and 27W and from 05N to 10N
between 27W and 61W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A deep-layered upper level trough from the north-central to the 
southwestern Gulf continues to support scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over the eastern half of the basin. At the surface,
a weak pressure gradient prevails. with a surface trough extending
from offshore of SE Louisianan to the central Bay of Campeche,
with Atlantic high pressure extending into south Florida. Recent
satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate SE to S
winds east of the trough, and light and variable winds to the
west. However, fresh SW winds were noted offshore of the Florida
Panhandle where active convection was occurring. Recent buoy and
satellite altimeter data show seas mainly 3 ft or less across the
basin, and likely higher near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue to extend into
the eastern Gulf and dominate the area waters through midweek, 
supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. 
The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the 
same period. A deep-layered upper-level trough across the western
Gulf will combine with very warm, humid and unstable air to yield
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, across the central and 
eastern Gulf through at least Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty 
winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms.
Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms are active 
over the far southwest Caribbean near the eastern extension of the
East Pacific monsoon trough. In the NW Caribbean, scattered 
moderate to strong convection is developing along a surface trough
analyzed near the eastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection occurring near a
tropical wave across the SE Caribbean is impacting the waters
there south of 12N. A strong Atlantic ridge extends southwestward
to the central Bahamas, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade
winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 
confirmed by recent scatterometer and altimeter data. Moderate to
fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the 
basin away from the south coastal waters of Cuba, where light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will combine with the 
Colombian low to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds 
across most of the basin through the early part of the next week, 
with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central 
Caribbean. Looking ahead, the area of fresh to strong winds and 
rough seas will expand across the east and central Caribbean Mon 
night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends along 30-31N from near 55W to a 1011 
mb low near 31N76W, with a dissipating stationary front between 
the low and the GA coastal waters. A surface trough extends from 
the low to the NW Bahamas, and is supporting scattered moderate 
convection along and east of the trough to 70W. Moderate to
locally fresh S to SW winds prevail E of the trough, generally N 
of 22N between 60W and 77W, and increase to fresh to strong 
speeds near the surface low. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these
waters, North of the ridge axis, between 40W and 68W, moderate to
fresh S to SW winds prevail, producing seas of 6 to 10 ft in NW
swell. The ridge is anchored by a 1029 mb surface high near
30N34W, and dominates the remainder of the basin E of 40W with 
fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas. Saharan air following
the tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean extends from the
coast of Africa to near 59W, to the south of 24N. The remainder 
of the basin away from any fronts or other features is seeing 
gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers with embedded 
thunderstorms are occurring ahead of a 1011 mb low pressure area 
located near 31N76W. A surface trough extends from the low center
to the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds S to SW winds and 
moderate to rough seas will develop N of 26N and E of the trough
and low, as the low shift E-NE and out of the area tonight 
through early Mon. A reinforcing cold front will move into the 
area behind the exiting low. This cold front will also shift 
eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by 
early Sun. Expect strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to 
very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 29N Sun 
afternoon into Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from 
31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the
front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and 
Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and 
accompanying front may move off northeast Florida on Mon and shift
eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied by fresh to
strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N.

$$
Stripling