Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 030446
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are present from 06N to 12N and between 30W and 
37W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active over northeastern Venezuela and the Lesser Antilles.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are active S of 15N and W of 75W, including over Panama, Costa
Rica, and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low 
pressure near 16N30W and then to 09N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is active off the coast of Africa, generally from 04N
to 11N and E of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf
coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across much
of the Gulf N of 24N. The Atlantic ridge extends east to west 
along roughly 23/24N, from the Florida Straits to the coast of 
Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. This pattern is supporting 
moderate to fresh SW to W winds north of 25N where seas are 3-5 
ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in 
control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle 
to moderate winds through the week. The exceptions will be fresh 
NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula 
nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, 
where a cold front approaching the coast will help to induce 
moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Mon. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern Gulf, and
over the central Gulf N of 25N between 87W and 92W early this 
week as a mid to upper-level trough and a cold front approach the 
Gulf coast. 
 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned
over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade 
winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate 
to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are impacting the NW Caribbean waters as well as
near the Windward Passage as they propagate southwestward off of 
Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central 
basin through much of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A 
tropical wave, near 82W is helping to enhance thunderstorms over 
the southwestern Caribbean. The wave will move inland Central 
America late tonight into early Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture
combine to produce scattered moderate convection from Cuba across
the Bahamas to Bermuda. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is 
dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N56W, 
supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6
ft north of 28N and west of 75W, as well as along the northern 
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Another area of fresh to 
strong NE winds is confirmed by scatterometer data in between the 
Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds and 
moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining tropical 
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending 
from the central Atlantic to South Florida will change little 
through Tue, then lift N to central Florida on Wed and N of 31N on
Thu. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front 
moving through the southeastern U.S. will continue to support 
fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered 
thunderstorms over the majority of the area. Fresh to strong 
trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the 
period. 

$$ 
Adams