Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 301057
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Oct 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea Bissau near 11N16W and continues southward to 08N25W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N40W, where it is broken by
a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes at 07N45W to 08N61W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough
between 19W-21W and within 30 nm south of the trough between
25W-31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern 
United States, low pressure over the Bahamas and a trough over 
the central Gulf that extends southeastward across the northern 
Yucatan Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to 
east winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf. Moderate
seas to around 7 ft are with these winds. Moderate, or weaker 
winds are elsewhere as noted in overnight Ascat scatterometer 
data passes.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east winds 
over the northeast and north-central Gulf waters will be supported 
by the gradient in place into early next week. Looking ahead, 
expect fresh southeast to south winds over much of the northwest 
Gulf by Tue night between high pressure over the western Atlantic 
and a cold front that will be moving through the Southern Plains. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal boundary along with a couple of troughs that are over the 
western Atlantic generally maintain a weak pressure gradient over 
the Caribbean waters west of about 76W, thus leading to light to 
gentle winds and slight seas there. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas are elsewhere. A trough analyzed from just east of 
Jamaica to just inland Colombia near 09N74W is supporting an area of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters from 15N to 19N 
between 72W and 77W. Similar activity is seen from 09N to 14N 
between 78W and 80W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the central and 
eastern Caribbean will continue through Mon night, then diminish 
to light to gentle. The exception is in the south-central 
Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela, where fresh to strong 
trades will begin Fri night and continue into Sun morning. Light 
to gentle breezes are forecast elsewhere into early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from low pressure of 1012 mb near 32.5N25W, 
south-southwestward to a warm front near 27N28W, and it connects to 
a 1013 mb low pressure near 27N30W. A cold front extends from the 
low pressure to 25N35W and to 27N46W, then becomes a stationary 
front to 29N55W. It transitions to a warm front to 31N60W, to a 1011 
mb low pressure near 31N69W. A cold front extends from the low 
pressure to 28N75W, then becomes a stationary front to near South 
Florida. A trough extends from near 30N67W to 23N68W. Overnight 
Ascat scatterometer data passes depicted fresh to strong northeast 
to east winds north of the frontal boundary west of about 58W. 
Recent altimeter satellite data and buoy observations show seas of 9 
to 11 ft with these winds. Fresh to strong northeast winds are also 
north of the frontal boundary portion east of 58W, with seas of 9 to 
10 ft.

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh northeast winds are present 
from 15N to 22N between the coast of Africa and 21W, and from 
14N to 18N between 21W and 25W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these 
winds. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N west of 50W, 
and from 10N to 19N between 35W and 50W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with 
these trades. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere as seen in the 
overnight Ascat scatterometer data passes. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with
the light to gentle winds, except less than 3 ft southwest of the
Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds along with rough seas to around 11 ft will persist north of 
the front into next week as the low pressure moves northeastward 
past Bermuda, and the reinforced cold front moves southeastward 
and stalls near, or along 24N. 

$$
Aguirre