Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 222319
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Bertha's center made landfall on the eastern side of St. Bernard
Parish, Louisiana, around 2 pm CDT. At 22/2100, Tropical Storm 
Bertha is centered near 29.8N 89.8W or 20 nm SE of New Orleans 
Louisiana, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 
50 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring SW of the center of Bertha, particularly
N of 25N between 90W and 94W. On the forecast track, the center 
of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas 
coasts through Thursday, and then move farther inland into Texas 
Thursday night. Little change in strength is expected during the 
next day or so, and Bertha is forecast to maintain tropical 
storm intensity up until it reaches the upper Texas coast on 
Thursday. Bertha is expected to dissipate inland over Texas by 
Thursday night or Friday. Bertha is expected to produce total 
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals of
6 inches through Friday along the central to western Gulf Coast 
from Northwest Florida to southern Texas. This rainfall may 
produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells 
generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the 
northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is about to emerge off the west coast of Africa.
Its axis is near 17W based on wave diagnostics. A cluster of 
moderate to scattered strong convection follows the wave and is 
affecting mainly northern Senegal and the SW part of Mauritania.

A tropical wave is along 40W south of 20N, moving westward around
20 kt. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at 
this time.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of 16N, moving
westward around 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal at
13N17W and extends southwestward to 12N26W. The ITCZ starts at 
08N42W and continues westward to northern Guyana into eastern
Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
12.5N between 20W and 23W, from 06N to 11N between 32W and 36W
and in the vicinity of 07N50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on 
Tropical Storm Bertha located 20 nm SE of New Orleans, Louisiana.
Latest scatterometer data indicate that the fresh to strong 
winds outside of the circulation of Bertha cover the waters N of 
26N between 88W and 94W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft generating by Bertha 
are spreading across the NE Gulf based on a pair of altimeter 
passes. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bertha will move to 29.6N 91.3W
Thu morning, 29.5N 93.9W Thu afternoon, weaken to a remnant low 
near 29.4N 96.9W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Swells 
generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the 
northern Gulf Coast through Thu. In the wake of Bertha, weak high
pressure centered over the south-central Gulf will be replaced 
by ridging associated to a new high center that forms over the NE
Gulf providing for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin,
except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan 
Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast. These conditions
are expected to persist through the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is
reduced today due to a surface trough located just north of 
Hispaniola. As a result, fresh to locally strong winds are noted
in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela,
as well as over the SW part of the basin. Seas are 8 to 12 ft 
with these winds based on altimeter data. Moderate to locally 
fresh easterly winds are in the lee of Cuba, with seas of 2 to 4
ft. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker with seas of 2 to 5
ft. An upper-level low spinning over the SE Bahamas is helping 
to induce showers and thunderstorms over the SE Bahamas, the 
Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough 
seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast 
period. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Windward 
Passage will pulse tonight. Fresh winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Honduras from this afternoon into tonight. Moderate or 
weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf 
of Honduras Sat and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic and runs
from 29N66W to 21N70W. Fresh to strong winds are on either side
of the trough axis, with moderate seas. An upper-level trough
supports this trough, and is also enhancing convection across a
large area, mainly from 22N to 29N between 52W and 74W. Winds 
and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. High pressure 
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Its 
associated ridge combined with lower pressures over NW Africa is 
promoting fresh to strong northerly winds between the Canary 
Islands and downwind to about 26N. In addition, the moderate 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure with the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting only moderate to locally 
fresh trades and seas 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the 
waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough 
will continue westward reaching the Bahamas Thu afternoon and to
central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore
Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through
Sat night. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are
forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach 
the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night 
preceded by mostly moderate to fresh southwest to winds north of 
29N and east of 75W.

$$
GR