Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 261735
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1732 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure,
associated with a tropical wave, is located a few hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and 
thunderstorms associated with this system have changed little in 
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
are somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of 
days, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or 
two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become less conducive by this weekend, 
potentially ending its chances for development. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend, 
potentially ending its chances for development. Formation chance 
through 48 hours and 7 days is medium.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on
this feature.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea and lower 
pressures in northern Colombia will support fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. 
Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas.

Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 21N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is 
occurring in association with this wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are depicted
over the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 17N16W to 09N33W to
10N43W. The ITCZ continues from 10N43W to 11N57W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 
13N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted 
from 10N to 15N between 50W and 57W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers prevail north of 25.5N, while generally dry 
conditions are present in the remainder of the Gulf waters. A weak
high pressure system over the NE Gulf maintains moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will persist across the
Gulf waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally
strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings
due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula 
each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela.

Divergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of
Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. Dry conditions 
prevail elsewhere. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to 
strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted in the 
north- central and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas 
through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force 
tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, 
along with locally very rough seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low 
pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic 
has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. 
The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the 
Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a high chance of
development.

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of 70W, affecting the Florida coast and NW
Bahamas. Farther east, a weak surface trough along 58W is 
producing scattered showers between 56W and 60W and north of 23N.
The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are 
noted east of 60W. Meanwhile, moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas are found west of 60W. However, gusty winds and 
higher seas are likely near the stronger storms.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge, and 
associated weak pressure gradient, will dominate the SW N Atlantic
waters through the next several days. This will support mainly 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will 
pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night.
An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the 
eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over 
the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to
portions of the southeast waters this weekend. 

$$
KRV