Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 041638
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic. Its axis 
is along 27N, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 07N between 26.5W and 
29W. 

A tropical wave is along 53.5W, south of 20N, moving W at around 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern 
end of the wave axis and mainly from 15N to 19N between 47W and 
56W. 

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 69W, south of 19N, moving west at around 15 kt. No 
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to 05N41W. The ITCZ extends from 05N41W to
09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 4N to 19N
and east of 23W.  
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
over the central and NE Gulf. A ridge dominates most of the Gulf 
region supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas are generally 1 
to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the 
waters through early next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with 
moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a 
diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low is maintaining fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas 
offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E winds 
and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin, 
except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are 
present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over 
portions of central America. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical 
ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades 
along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. Winds over 
these waters will briefly diminish this weekend, but increase to 
fresh to strong speeds early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through 
early next week.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails north of 27N 
and west of 77W in association to a mid level trough. A weak low 
pressure of 1016 mb is located near 33N57W. A surface trough 
extends from the low center to near 29N64W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are near these features. A 1019 mb high pressure 
remains over the western Atlantic and is centered near 30N71W. Its
associated ridge reaches the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds are seen over the waters west of 74W. The 
remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence 
of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located 
SE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate 
seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and away from 
any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across 
the area through early next week, generating a weak pressure 
pattern. This will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas across the area. 

$$
KRV