Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;739919
AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south 
of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N 
to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of 
18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible 
near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the
wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between 
58W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to 
inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east 
of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to 
05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02N44W. It continues 
from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to 
11N east of 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the 
western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019
mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is 
over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low 
and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds 
over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The 
Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from 
27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity 
is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to 
just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers 
are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21.5N and west of 93W. 

For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is 
not expected during the next day or so while the low remains 
inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next 
day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern 
Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal 
boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally 
conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low 
pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough 
seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered 
showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic
ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and 
combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern 
Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the 
western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through 
26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South 
America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and 
rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N. 
Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell. 
Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to
near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over 
just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion, 
where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern
part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland
the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to 
the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends
into the southwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in 
place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to 
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central 
Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of 
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will 
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly 
along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N-28N west of 43W, stretching 
across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high 
center near 29N32W, and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures 
in the tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along 
with moderate seas south of about 21N and west of 35W, except from 
13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to 35W where fresh northeast 
winds are present as noted in a satellite scatterometer data pass 
from this morning. Moderate seas are in this area as well. 
Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed from near 31N37W to to 26N46W. 
No significant convection is present with this feature. The latest 
satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate or weaker 
anticyclonic winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter 
satellite data passes along with recent buoy reports are indicating 
slight to moderate seas elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends 
westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America. 
The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then 
reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward
through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to 
southeast trade winds south of 22N, then become moderate to fresh 
through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through 
tonight then become gentle to moderate southeast to south winds Mon 
through Wed. Fresh southwest winds will develop across the NW 
forecast waters, namely north of 29N and west of 74W late Sun 
through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as 
a weak frontal system moves through the southeastern U.S. Expect 
fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across 
Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Aguirre