Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 232100
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front will move 
eastward across Central Atlantic waters through Wed, with strong 
to near gale-force N winds behind it. Significant NW to N swell, 
with period of 8 to 12 seconds, generated by gales north of the 
region is combining with wind-waves to induce very rough seas 
southeast of Bermuda that will spread to the southeast across 
waters north of 22N into Wed night. Widespread seas of 12 to 17 ft
can be expected from 35W to 67W during this period. Another cold 
front may bring similar conditions late this week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W and 
extends southwestward to 04N19W and then to 04N25W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N25W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 00N to 06N between 04W and 15W, and from 02S to 02N 
between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula in
the SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are over the SE Gulf, with
moderate winds elsewhere E of 93W. W of 93W, gentle winds are
noted. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf through early 
Wed, then mainly fresh winds will prevail through Wed night. A 
ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the 
Gulf region the remainder of the week, with a high pressure center
located over the NE Gulf Thu through Sat. This system will 
produce mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow with slight to 
moderate seas. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW 
Gulf on Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central
Caribbean as well as in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range W of 70W and 4-6 ft E of 70W. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western 
Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support 
fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, 
and the central Caribbean through Thu night, except through Sat 
night off Colombia. Otherwise, long period northerly swell will 
reach the NE Caribbean and the waters just E of the Leeward 
Islands, including the Atlantic passages, by Wed morning and 
gradually subside late Thu into Fri. Additional pulses of 
northerly swell will reach the same region late Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell that will bring very rough seas to parts of the central 
Atlantic into mid-week. 

A frontal boundary extends from 31N47W to the Turks and Caicos 
Islands. Strong to near gale winds are W of the front to 57W, and
within 120 nm N of the front W of 57W. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere W of the front. Aside from the very rough seas greater
than 12 ft, seas 8 ft or greater are found over much of the waters
N of the bahamas as well as N of a line from 20N70W to 30N47W.
Farther east, high pressure dominates the waters, anchored by a
1025 mb high centered near 34N26W. Fresh winds, and seas of 7-9 ft
are from 07N to 17N off the coast of Africa to 25W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually dissipate 
over the SE waters tonight into Wed. Strong winds and rough to 
very rough seas follow the front. These marine conditions will 
move E of the area on Wed as another cold front reaches the north 
waters. This second front will extend from 31N55W to the NW 
Bahamas by Thu morning. Strong winds and rough seas are also 
expected behind the front. A third cold front will move across the
northern offshore waters on Fri. 

$$
AL