Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160425
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Mar 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Storm Warning: A strong cold front is expected to
enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, then move southeastward 
across the Gulf through Mon night. Widespread strong to near-gale 
northerly winds will follow the front, peaking to gale-force off 
coast of Texas tonight through early Mon morning. Expect strong 
gales off the Mexican coast between Tampico and Veracruz Mon, with
frequent gusts to storm force at times. Seas will peak to 15 ft 
with the strongest winds. Both winds and seas should gradually 
subside from north to south starting Mon evening.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues 
to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 04S38W. Scattered 
showers prevail along the ITCZ. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a storm warning.

Moderate to fresh SW to S return flow prevails along the western 
edge of the subtropical Atlantic ridge, with locally strong winds
noted in the far NW Gulf off the coast of Texas. Scattered
moderate convection is evident on satellite along and west of a
trough reaching from the Yucatan Channel to just southwest of
Apalachicola, Florida. 

For the forecast, aside from the storm and gale warnings described
above, the front will move southeastward away from the Gulf late 
Mon night through Tue, and conditions in the Gulf will gradually 
improve from north to south. In the wake of the front, high 
pressure will build across the region into midweek. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure continues to build in the central Atlantic 
and reaching the Caribbean basin. Latest scatterometer data 
depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across the eastern half of 
the basin, while moderate to fresh E winds are noted W of 73W. The
exception is in the offshore waters N of Colombia, where strong 
winds are currently pulsing with rough seas. Another area of rough
seas is moving across the far eastern Caribbean, mainly E of 64W.
Moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure at the north Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas 
across the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and 
central Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages 
through Tue. On Tue evening, a cold front is expected to enter the
northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Then, it will 
slow down and possibly stall from western Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras by early Wed morning. This should allow winds and seas 
across the central and eastern Caribbean to gradually subside 
through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

An expansive subtropical Atlantic high pressure extends across
much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 25N and
west of 50W, including between the islands of the Lesser 
Antilles. The persistent strong trades have built seas of 8-10 ft 
in E swell within an area from the equator north to 22N between 
45W and 65W. Another area of fresh to strong trades is in the far 
eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands, where seas are 8-9 ft. 
Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge will continue to 
support fresh to strong winds and rough seas south of 25N, 
including the southeast Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank through Tue.
By Tue evening, the ridge will retreat eastward in response to 
the cold front moving off the U.S. southeastern coast. This front 
will slow down and stall from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas 
and to central Cuba on Wed. Fresh to strong southerly winds and 
rough seas will develop north of 28N starting this evening ahead 
of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front 
through early Tue. The front will remain nearly stationary through
Thu. At the same time, a low pressure may develop along the 
frontal boundary and move quickly northeastward.

$$
ERA