Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 301833
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is 
occurring near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 63W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed south of 12N between 60W and 65W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is evident west of 87W and S of 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 13N25W and
then to 10N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N 
to 16N and east of 20W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing S of 11N between 75W and 82W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is draped across the northeastern Gulf, producing
scattered moderate convection across areas N of 26N between 85W
and 95W. A surface trough is also analyzed from the south-central
Gulf into the Bay of Campeche, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms occurring near the surface trough. Otherwise at the
surface, weak ridging prevails, supporting moderate or weaker 
winds and slight seas.
  
For the forecast, a stationary front from the Florida Big Bend to
near the mouth of the Mississippi River will linger over the NE 
Gulf into early next week, leading to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms, capable of inducing locally hazardous winds and 
seas. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place will maintain mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas 
through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
details on convection in the basin.

The subtropical ridge north of the islands continues to sustain
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the 
central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are evident elsewhere in the Caribbean. 

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving into the Gulf of 
Honduras will bring showers and thunderstorms along with locally 
strong winds and higher seas to the gulf and adjacent waters of 
the NW Caribbean this weekend. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure 
in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia will 
maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally 
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through early next
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches from 31N70W to NE Florida. This
feature and an upper level trough to the north combine to produce
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms west of
74W and N of 22N. Farther east, a couple of surface troughs also 
produce scattered showers N of 23N between 63W and 68W. The 
remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a 
subtropical ridge that maintains generally moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a 1029 mb high
pressure system between the Azores and Nova Scotia. This ridge
forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas
north of 20N and east of 60W. Strong NE winds and rough seas are
evident off Morocco due to a tighter pressure gradient in the
region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.
 
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 
just W of Bermuda to just N of Daytona Beach, Florida, with a 
surface trough extending southward offshore the Florida coast. 
These features are leading to scattered thunderstorms northward 
from the NW Bahamas, which will continue through Monday, as low 
pressure forms along the front near the Florida coast and tracks 
ENE along it. Behind the low, NE to E winds will increase to fresh
to strong N of the boundary, mainly N of 29N and W of 77W Sun 
night into Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain in control of
the general weather pattern providing for a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic wind flow.

$$
Adams