Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;729697
AXNT20 KNHC 101058
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to 
gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela 
tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around 
14 ft off Colombia Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from near 16N46W to
03N51W. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are 
seen within 120 nm west of the wave from 07N to 09N, and near 
its northern portion.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N 
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is 
observed near the wave.

Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W south of 19N
moving westward also at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are near its northern portion from 17N to 19N
and between 80W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N21W and 
west-southwestward to 10N29W, where it transitions to the ITCZ 
to 09N36W and to 08N47W. It resumes at 08N50W and to near the 
coast of Guyana at 07N57W. Dry air in place is keeping the 
tropics free of deep convective activity. Only a few showers are 
near the ITCZ between 32W and 35W and between 53W and 56W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge axis extends from Atlantic high pressure westward across 
the basin along 28N. The related pressure gradient is generally 
allowing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of 
26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N. 
Seas are of moderate state south of 26N, and of slight state north
of 26N.

Clusters of numerous to isolated strong convection are increasing 
over the SW Gulf and central Bay of Campeche. This activity is
generally lifting north in response to an inverted mid-level
trough that is over northeast Mexico near the Texas border.

For the forecast, the ridge will change little through the next 
few days keeping similar marine conditions as are initially being
observed. Winds become mostly light and variable starting Mon 
over the north-central and NE Gulf. Occasional fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan 
peninsula at night into next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Venezuela tonight and on Sat night.

The pressure gradient between a nearly stagnant high pressure
over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over 
northern South America continues to drive the trade throughout 
the basin. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes show 
strong to near gale-force easterly trades across the majority 
of the central portion of the sea. Moderate seas are being 
produced by these trades. Fresh trades along with slight to 
moderate seas are in the Gulf of Honduras, also south of 
Cuba to near 20N and between 78W and 81W and across the 
eastern portion of the basin. Moderate or lighter winds along 
with slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere over the 
basin.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over some areas of 
the western portion of the basin as well between Cuba and Jamaica
and the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will 
support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for 
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia,
and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Fri night and Sat night. Trades 
over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to occasionally 
strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early 
next week. A pair of tropical waves will move across the basin 
through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A plume of Saharan dust and dry mid-latitude air cover much of 
the tropical Atlantic, suppressing the development of showers and 
thunderstorms. 

An expansive high pressure area, with its associated ridge axis 
near 27N is anchored by a 1022 mb high center near 27N59.5W The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the 
deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south of
about 24N and between 72W and 77W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are over 
these waters as depicted by overnight altimeter data passes. 
Moderate to fresh westerly winds along with moderate seas are 
north of 29N and west of 50W. Fresh to locally strong easterly 
breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 23N and east of 45W.
Moderate to fresh northeast to east trades are present south of 
21N between 41W and the Lesser Antilles while fresh to strong 
northeast winds are seen from 19N to 27N east of 33W to the coast 
of Africa. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in east swell from 07N to 18N 
between 49N and the Lesser Antilles, 5 to 7 ft south of 23N east 
of 49W, except 6 to 8 ft in northeast swell from 19N to 27N east 
of 33W to the coast of Africa. Moderate or lighter winds and along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere.

A large upper-level low over the central Bahamas is attendant by 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters 
from 21N to 25N between 72W and 76W. The low will continue to 
track westward toward South Florida and the Keys through Sat. The 
shower and thunderstorm activity may produce strong gusty winds 
and frequent lightning.

An expansive dense plume of Saharan dust along with dry mid-
latitude air is suppressing the development of deep convective 
activity over the tropical Atlantic region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge near 28N 
will change little through the period. The weather pattern will 
generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light
to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate 
to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night. 
Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at 
night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through early next week. 

$$
Aguirre