Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 111655
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1655 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N47W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted from 0.5N to 08N, and east 
of 38W. Isolated convection is also noted from 02N to 06N between 
37W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Saint Petersburg, FL to near 25N96W.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front along with seas 
3 to 6 ft. A surface trough is generating isolated convection over
the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending 
southeastward from central Texas is dominating the rest of the 
Gulf. Therefore, light to gentle N to NE winds prevail across the
remainder of the basin along with 2 to 3 ft seas, except for 
moderate winds over the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are 
expected over the northern Gulf into this afternoon, in the wake 
of a cold front extending from central Florida to near the Texas- 
Mexico border. The front will progress southeastward through 
tonight before dissipating. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally 
fresh E to NE winds will occur in the eastern Bay of Campeche and 
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected 
over the remainder of the basin through Sat. Looking ahead, the 
next cold front is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sun, and 
increasing winds and building seas will occur in the wake of the 
front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Channel and is
supporting scattered moderate convection. Fresh to strong ENE to 
E winds and rough seas are evident at the south- central basin. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds with moderate seas are present
over the north- central and eastern parts of the basin. Light to 
gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over 
the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a 
moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and 
high pressure to the north. Strong E winds will pulse in the 
central basin, and winds may reach near-gale force at times 
offshore of northern Colombia. Rough seas are expected near and to
the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade
winds and rough seas in E swell will prevail over the Atlantic 
waters and through the passages into the eastern basin through 
this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the 
northwestern Caribbean by early next week, and increasing winds 
and building seas will be possible behind the front. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N62W to the Bahamas. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the 
trough between 61W-77W. To the W, a cold front extends from 31N71W
to 28N75W, while a second and stronger cold front extends from 
31N76W to Cocoa Beach, FL. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge 
prevails, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 27N44W.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds and moderate seas are noted 
ahead of the fronts north of 27N, and between 57W and 71W. In the
wake of the front north of 28.5N, and between 71W and 80W, fresh 
to strong NW winds and rough seas prevail. At the central 
Atlantic north of 27N between 35W and 48W, light to gentle winds 
and rough seas prevail in large mixed swell. For the tropical 
Atlantic, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are 
present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, 
gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and moderate seas exist.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold fronts will rapidly 
progress eastward into the central Atlantic through Fri, and 
widespread strong to locally near-gale force SW winds will occur 
ahead of the front, generally north of 28N and east of 70W into 
Fri afternoon. Near and to the west of the cold fronts, fresh to 
locally strong W to NW winds are anticipated, north of 28N from 
offshore of Florida to 70W through late tonight. Rough seas 
associated with this storm system are expected north of 27N, with 
seas slowly subsiding from west to east into this weekend. 
Elsewhere in the central Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE 
swell will prevail through Fri morning, with a new mixed swell 
reinforcing rough seas this weekend. Looking ahead, the next cold 
front is slated to push off the coast of the southeastern United 
States on Sun, and increasing winds and building seas will occur 
in the wake of the front.

$$ KRV