Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Dec 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: 

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N50W to 28N70W. A new set of large NW swell 
behind the front is producing 12 to 17 ft seas north of 28N 
between 50W and 63W. Expect this area of rough to very rough seas
to progress eastward through Sat night. Afterward, another set of 
NW swell will arrive and sustain very rough seas through early
next week.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near
Freetown, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. An ITCZ continues
west-southwestward from 06N18W to 03N30W to 01N42W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed up to 80 nm
along either side of the ITCZ. Widely scattered showers are seen
south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 06N between 10W and 16W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers at the
western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high over the
northeastern Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf with light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas north of 23N. South of 23N, gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail,
including the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the 
Gulf through late Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter 
the northwestern Gulf early Mon, followed by fresh to strong 
northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions will be 
possible in the far west-central and southwestern Gulf by Mon 
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds continue to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the western Gulf of Honduras, and off
the Nicaragua coast. A broad subtropical ridge in the western 
Atlantic sustains a trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are present 
at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 
to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central and part of the 
southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 
3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical 
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds off
Colombia through mid week, with moderate to fresh trade winds 
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about 
the ongoing significant swell.

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N50W to 28N70W, then continues northwestward as
warm front to beyond 31N74W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident near and up to 80 nm southeast of the cold front east of
54W. Patchy showers are seen up to 50 nm south of the rest of the
cold front. At the central Atlantic, convergent southerly winds
near a surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection
north of 22N between 37W and 41W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside of the large swell area described in the Special Features
section, moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to NW winds and
8 to 11 ft seas are noted north of 25N between 35W and 65W. West
of 65W and north of 25N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh SW
to W winds and 4 to 8 ft seas exist. To the south from 13N to 25N
between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, a broad subtropical 
ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in 
large NW swell. For the tropical Atlantic from 00Z to 13N and west
of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft in
mixed moderate swell prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move east of 35W 
through early Sun. Fresh to strong winds near the front will 
diminish through tonight. Large N swell following the front will 
mix with earlier large swell still covering the area east of 65W. 
Another cold front will move into the waters between northeast 
Florida and Bermuda by late Sat, and move east of 35W by early 
Mon, leaving a trailing stationary front to dissipate along 21N. 
Strong winds and additional large N swell follow this front across
waters east of 70W into early next week. A third cold front will 
move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, and will reach 
from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by late Tue, and from 
31N60W to central Cuba by late Wed. 

$$

Chan