Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;303623
AXNT20 KNHC 132318
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jan 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W then extends southwestward to 07N16W. An ITCZ 
continues from 07N16W to 01N31W to 06N57W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from the 
Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. Patchy showers are seen 
along this boundary. A surface trough is causing scattered 
showers at the far west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. 
Another surface trough is generating similar conditions off the 
Florida west coast. A developing 1026 mb high over New Orleans is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 
26N. South of 26N, gentle to moderate N to NE winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail, except fresh to strong NW to N winds with 6 to 8 ft
seas off Veracruz, Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across 
the basin through early Wed. The next cold front will move the 
Gulf Wed night into early Thu. The front will shift quickly 
southeast of the basin Thu evening, and will be followed by 
increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve Thu 
night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh northerly 
winds may impact the basin late in the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front along with a surface trough are
producing widely scattered showers in the northwestern basin. 
Convergent trade winds are causing similar conditions through the
central and eastern Caribbean. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to 
strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the south- 
central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to
6 ft seas dominate the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE
to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the 
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, pulsing of fresh to strong winds offshore of NW
Colombia will diminish midweek, then return this weekend. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A cold front 
will move into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E Cuba to Honduras
on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten 
in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend leading to 
increasing winds across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N64W and the Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Scattered 
showers are evident up to 150 nm northwest of this feature. to the
south, two weak but persistent surface troughs are sustaining 
patchy showers from 21N to 27N between 63W and the southeast 
Bahamas. At the central Atlantic, a robust upper-level low near 
24N50W is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
from 15N to 27N between 35W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic 
Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found near and N
of the stationary front. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge is 
providing light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N
and west of 55W. North of 24N between 35W and 55W, gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells
exist. For the central Atlantic from 04N to 24N between 35W and 
55W, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE winds and 7 to 9 ft 
seas are present. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N 
between 55W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate E winds 
and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted. For the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
31N63W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will dissipate 
tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. A pre-
frontal trough will emerge off the coast of NE Florida Wed 
morning and quickly move eastward, accompanied by fresh to strong 
winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. The 
next cold front will enter the NW waters Thu morning, reaching 
from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending 
from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. 
Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through 
Fri. Winds may reach gale force Thu night east of the front and N 
of 30N. 

$$
Adams