Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 212304
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues 
southwestward to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 07N40W 
and to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 16N
and E of 20W, and from 05N to 12N between 26W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over the W Atlantic dominates the Gulf 
region producing a gentle to moderate SE to S wind flow, with the 
exception of light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf. Moderate seas
prevail across most of the area, except for slight seas over the
NE Gulf.
 
For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds 
are expected each afternoon and evening in the Bay of Campeche and
north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough develops and 
moves westward over the region. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through much of 
this weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds are 
expected to develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico late this
weekend into next week, with locally fresh SE to SW winds 
expanding over the central and eastern Gulf by midweek, as a cold 
front moves over the southern U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low
is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with 
moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas 
are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along 
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
are confined to the southwestern Caribbean likely associated with
the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Low-topped
trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with isolated thunderstorms
in the regional waters of Jamaica.

For the forecast, strong E to NE winds will pulse offshore of northern 
Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week as
low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean. Rough 
seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Otherwise, 
high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will support 
moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the rest of 
the basin through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N66W and continues 
SW to near 28N76W. No significant convection is noted along the 
frontal boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the 
western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure located near 30N72W.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and 
Cuba while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder
of the area N of 20N W of 55W. Slight to moderate seas are within
these winds. To the E, a 1011 mb low is centered near 23N55W. An
surface trough is from 31N52W to the low to 20N57W. A surface 
trough is analyzed from 30N28W to 22N28W. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the trough. The pressure gradient 
between this trough and high pressure of 1033 mb located NE of 
the Azores is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E 
winds N of 27N between 25W and 35W. Rough seas are within these 
wind speeds. Mainly moderate trades with moderate seas dominate 
the tropical Atlantic.
 
For the forecast west of 55W, locally fresh NE winds are expected
over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward Passage 
through Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south-central 
Caribbean. Farther north, moderate to fresh W to SW winds will 
occur offshore of northern Florida by Sat morning, with winds 
expanding farther east into the central Atlantic through Sun 
morning, ahead of a cold front pushing off the east coast of the 
United States. The cold front is slated to move southeastward 
along the Florida Peninsula and into the northwestern waters this 
weekend into early next week, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and building seas expected in the wake of the front. Looking 
ahead, widespread moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over 
much of the western Atlantic by midweek as high pressure builds 
off the coast of the eastern U.S. 

$$
ERA