Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 251024
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Oct 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0900 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 16.3N 75.0W at 25/0900
UTC or 140 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica, moving NW at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are active within 60 nm of the center of Melissa,
and from 12N to 17N between 69W and 72W. Melissa is developing
into a very dangerous storm. It is forecast to rapidly intensify
into a major hurricane by late this evening, and drift toward Jamaica
through Mon. Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall to Jamaica beginning 
tonight, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous 
landslides. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm 
surge early next week. 

Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across 
southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive 
infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of 
communities. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula. In addition, heavy rainfall 
could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides in southern regions of the Dominican Republic. 

An increase in forward motion is expected Tue and Wed, with 
Melissa accelerating northeastward across eastern Cuba, the 
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. There is 
an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, 
and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week for these areas. In 
eastern Cuba, the risk of life- threatening flash flooding and 
landslides is increasing.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total 
Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf 

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of 
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several 
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details

For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is extends from 19N45W to 08N48W,
and is moving northwest at 10 to 15 kt. A sharp upper trough 
above the tropical wave is enhancing clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms within 360 nm east of the wave axis from 08N to 22N.
A scatterometer satellite pass from around 00 UTC indicated a 
small area of gale- force winds following the wave, associated 
with a clusters of thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, fresh 
to strong E to SE winds follow the tropical wave along with rough 
seas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal Coast near
Dakar, then extends southwestward to 10N20W. A segment of the 
ITCZ curves westward from 10N20W to 06N35W, then to 12N42W.
Another segment extends from 09N49W to 08N56W. In addition to the
showers and thunderstorms discussed in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the ITCZ
between 25N and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A line of thunderstorms is moving along the central and northern
Texas coasts toward the far northwest Gulf. A few thunderstorms
are also active near a trough off near the Yucatan Channel. 1029
mb high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is supporting fresh
to strong NE to E winds and associated rough seas over the 
Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E winds are 
expected over the eastern Gulf, including through the Florida 
Straits, into Sun as high pressure strengthens over the eastern 
United States. Locally rough seas may accompany these winds, 
especially over the Florida Straits. Winds and seas diminish 
through the early part of the week as low pressure moves from 
Texas across the northern Gulf coast toward the Carolinas. Looking
ahead, a strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue 
night and sweep through the southeast Gulf by Thu night. Strong 
winds and rough seas will follow the front, and winds may reach at
least near-gale force along the coast of Mexico off Tampico and 
Veracruz Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Melissa. 

Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are active south of
central Cuba. Fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are also active
over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate breezes and moderate seas are
noted elsewhere outside of the central Caribbean where T.S.
Melissa is active. 

For the forecast, Melissa will strengthen to a hurricane near 
16.5N 75.3W this afternoon, then strengthen further to a major 
hurricane near 16.7N 75.9W by Sun morning. Melissa will move to 
16.8N 76.5W Sun afternoon, 16.9N 77.1W Mon morning, 17.2N 77.4W 
Mon afternoon. Melissa will be near 17.8N 77.2W late Mon night to 
Tue morning and will start moving across Jamaica through late Tue 
and reach a position between Jamaica and Cuba by late Tue into 
early Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from Bermuda to South Florida. The
gradient between high pressure over the Ohio Valley and T.S.
Melissa in the Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas east of 65W, with seas to 8 ft near the
northern Bahamas. A few showers and thunderstorm are active near
23N67W. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active
along a trough extending southwestward from a complex low 
centered near the Azores to 22N45W. Other than the winds and seas
described in the Tropical Wave section, gentle to moderate breezes
and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail east of 65W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between 
high pressure north of the front and Tropical Storm Melissa will 
support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas north of the front
and off the central Bahamas through Sun as the front lifts north 
of the area and dissipates. Strong southerly winds and rough seas 
will follow the dying front between northeast Florida and Bermuda 
late Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Melissa, currently
south of Haiti and Jamaica, is forecast to intensify to a major 
hurricane and move across Jamaica and eastern Cuba Mon and Tue. 
Looking ahead, Melissa will impact Atlantic waters around the 
southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Tue night and Wed. Farther 
north, a weak cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
Mon night, then stall and dissipate. A stronger reinforcing cold 
front will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Wed. 

$$
Christensen