Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;509710
AXNT20 KNHC 101652
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, S of 15N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed S of 10N between 53W and 58W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, S of 18N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated 
with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W 
and extends SW to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 02N51W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is along and within 150 nm
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 30W eastward. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 100 nm of 
the remainder of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds persist over the Gulf south of 
25N, driven by the pressure gradient between a weak subtropical 
ridge and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific near the coast of 
El Salvador. Seas are 5-7 ft in the south-central Gulf, and 2-5 
feet elsewhere. A surface trough is analyzed from the Bay of 
Campeche along the Mexican coast from near Veracruz to Tampico, 
and is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection. Another 
surface trough analyzed along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula 
supports scattered moderate convection near the Yucatan Channel.
Lastly, another surface trough extending off the southern FL
Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection in the FL
Straits.

For the forecast, a modest surface ridge will continue to support
gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north- 
central Gulf into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure 
center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of 
Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through 
the weekend. It will enhance the gradient with the surface ridge, 
causing fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and 
northwestward Gulf. It will also trigger scattered to numerous 
thunderstorms and rough seas across the west-central Gulf into 
Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

At 1200 UTC, T.S. Cristina was located in the Eastern Pacific 
near the coast of El Salvador. A surface trough analyzed along 
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula is interacting with moisture from 
T.S. Cristina, and supports scattered moderate convection N of 15N
and W of 80W to the coasts of Belize and Mexico, including the 
Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is also ongoing in
the SW Caribbean along the East Pacific monsoon trough. The 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. Cristina 
supports moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas from the 
central Caribbean to the northwest Caribbean. Winds are locally 
fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia, 
as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge of high
pressure at the western Atlantic and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern
Pacific offshore of El Salvador will sustain fresh to strong E to
SE winds with moderate to rough seas from the south-central to 
northwestern Caribbean into early week. During the weekend, the 
high over the western Atlantic is expected to strengthen further, 
and cause fresh E trades to expand northward into the north- 
central basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1017 mb low at 25N64W and surface trough extending from 
31N56W through the low to 22N67W are helping to develop scattered
moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 60W and 65W. To the
northwest, a weak cold front is analyzed along 28-29N between 60W
and 79W. Another surface trough extending off the southern FL 
Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection in the waters SW
of the Bahamas and the FL Straits. These features are also 
helping to maintain a weaker pressure gradient across much of the 
Atlantic N of 20N and W of 40W, where gentle to moderate trades 
and 3-6 ft seas prevail, except for 1-3 ft seas from the Bahamas
to the FL Straits. Ridging from the Azores high expands across 
the rest of the Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas across much of the basin S of 20N. Scatterometer 
data indicates fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas across 
areas N of 20N and E of 40W, with the strongest winds occurring in
between the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, thunderstorms persist near a weak 
1017 mb low pressure at 25N64W on the southern end of a surface 
trough extending to 31N56W. The low pressure will dissipate as it
moves northeastward along the trough through Thu. Meanwhile, a 
weak frontal boundary currently between northeast Florida and 
Bermuda will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. 
The Atlantic ridge will build across the region late Thu through 
Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern will support 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from 
Fri night through Sun night. 

$$
Adams