Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 180319
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0315 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N35W and to 01S49W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 03N
and west of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A subtropical ridge centered between the United States and Bermuda
extends to the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to fresh
southerly winds over the western Gulf waters and moderate seas.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
noted north and west of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge extends from the western 
Atlantic to the central Gulf. The combination of the ridge and 
broad low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico associated with 
a trough will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient over 
the western and central Gulf waters starting tonight causing 
moderate to fresh south return flow over those waters through 
early Fri evening. Looking ahead, that low pressure will pull a 
cold front over the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed by fresh to
near gale north to northeast winds expected Sat night through Sun
night. Gale conditions are possible offshore Tampico on Sun and 
offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon and Sun night. Mariners are urged 
to stay up to data with the latest forecasts. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of
the Caribbean and lower pressures in NW South America sustain
strong to near gale-force NE winds off NW Colombia and the Gulf 
of Venezuela. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found in the 
north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in 
the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers are affecting
the Leeward Islands, SE Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the combination of Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue
to result in fresh to strong northeast to east trades in the
south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds
may pulse to near gale-force off Colombia at night on Fri and 
Sat. Fresh northeast winds will pulse in the Windward Passage 
through Thu. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through 
Sat night, while trades elsewhere will generally remain moderate 
to fresh. Additionally, large north swell is expected to impact 
the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Anegada/Mona Passages 
beginning on Thu and likely subsiding on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a hurricane-force extratropical low well
south of Newfoundland, enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N55W 
and continues southwestward to 26N63W, where it becomes a 
stationary front to the NW Bahamas. Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted ahead of the cold front to 51W and 
north of 24N. Moderate to locally fresh winds and rough seas are
found behind these frontal boundaries. Moderate to fresh SW winds
and moderate to rough seas are evident ahead of the cold front to
49W and north of 27W. 

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and
moderate to rough seas south and east of a line from 31N25W to 
the Leeward Islands. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found in the deep tropics near 07N45W. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and moderate seas are present. Saharan dust is evident in
the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N59W
to the N Bahamas this morning will move from 28N55W to the 
central Bahamas Wed morning, then dissipate by Thu. Fresh to 
strong SW winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N will pull 
north of our waters by this evening. In the wake of the front, 
large to very large N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas 
sliding eastward north of 28N through Wed night. 8 ft seas will 
progress equatorward reaching 20N by Thu before diminishing on 
Fri. Winds will become quiescent over forecast waters from Wed 
through Sat, as a high pressure ridge settles in along 27N. 
Looking ahead, a strong cold front should emerge from the SE 
United States coast on Sun, followed by increasing NW winds and 
building seas. 

$$
Delgado