Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion Check the date
Expires:No;;271232
AXNT20 KNHC 091030
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 09 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and continues southwestward
to 05N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to near
03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm south
of the ITCZ between 33W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida southwestward to
the Yucatan Peninsula and to extreme southern Mexico. High
pressure is building across the area behind the front. Fresh to
strong winds offshore Veracruz and over the far SW Gulf will
diminish to fresh speeds by early this afternoon. Seas of 8 to 10
ft with these winds will subside to 6 to 8 ft in north swell by
early in the afternoon. Mostly fresh north to northeast winds are
elsewhere southeast of a line from 29N91W to 26N95W and to 20N96W.
Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall today
from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. The fresh
north to northeast will diminish late tonight into early on Wed as
the front weakens further, and at which time light to gentle
winds are expected over most of the basin. Seas throughout will
subside today. Weak high pressure will slide eastward across the
northern Gulf later this week in the wake of a cold front that
will be clipping the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds will be
near the high while gentle to moderate winds will be elsewhere
over the Gulf. Slight seas are expected for the remainder of the
period after today.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A trough is analyzed from near western Cuba to 20N85W and to
inland central Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted west and northwest of the trough to the
Yucatan Channel and near western Cuba. The pressure gradient
between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower
pressures in northern south America and in the south-central and
southwestern Caribbean is generally allowing for moderate to fresh
trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft to exist east of about 79W.
Slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of 15N between 64W and
68W. Light to gentle winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over
the northwest portion of the basin and near Costa Rica and Panama,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the sea.
For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue today
as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic. Winds will
begin to pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and
offshore of northern Colombia starting this evening. Locally rough
seas may develop near and to the west of these winds. A
tightening pressure gradient between a weakening cold front
approaching the northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the
south-central basin will support fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas in the central Caribbean beginning on Wed and into the
upcoming weekend. Winds may approach near gale- force offshore of
Colombia late Wed. Elsewhere, a persistent east swell will
continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters and
passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas
slightly subside. New mixed north and east swell is expected to
bring rough seas over these same waters starting late Wed night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak cold front extends southwestward from a 1004 mb low north
of the area near 33N61W to 31N64W to 26N71W and to 25N76W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the front to
near 60W and north of 28N. A stronger cold front extends from
near 31N69W to 27N75W to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida. Fresh to strong southwest winds are ahead of both fronts
while similar wind speeds from the northwest in direction are
behind the stronger front. These winds are occurring roughly north
of about 27N between 51W and the northeastern Florida/southern
Georgia coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. Otherwise, a
1020 mb high center near 25N46W is dominating the Atlantic north of
23N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, with gentle
to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to
large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 23N
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh, to at times,
locally strong trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft seas are present.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas are
present over the remainder of the Atlantic.
For the forecast, rough seas in west swell east of 68W will be
reinforced by additional large northwest swell today through late
tonight following in behind a stronger cold front that will
quickly move eastward overtaking the aforementioned cold front
tonight. This next front is followed today by fresh to strong
northwest winds north of about 28N between 67W and 80W. By late
this afternoon these winds are expected to be north of 29N between
60W and 66W before shifting northeast of the area late tonight as
the front begins to stall. The northwest swell gradually subside
Wed and Wed night as it shifts to the NE forecast waters. At that
same time rough seas in long period east swell will begin to move
into the southeast forecast waters and linger through the
remainder of the forecast period. Looking ahead, fresh to locally
strong southwest winds and rough seas may develop offshore
northern Florida starting Wed as a low pressure system moves off
the east coast of the U.S. Its associated cold front should move
across the waters east of Florida from Wed night through the end
of the weak as it weakens, and eventually stalling over the NE
offshore zones Sat and dissipate Sat night. Fresh west to
northwest winds will follow the front through late Thu.
$$
Aguirre
