Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 091706
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave was analyzed at 1200 UTC along 18W, from 06N
to 17N. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are seen near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 36/37W from 07N to 17N, moving west at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N 
between 33W-41W.

A tropical wave is along 47W from 12N to 23N, moving west at 
10-15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant
convection currently accompanies the wave.

A tropical wave is along 66W and S of 20N, moving west at 15 to 
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the eastern Caribbean
between 13N and the coast of Puerto Rico.

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west 
coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will 
be possible during the middle to latter part of the week while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. 
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16N and continues 
southwestward to 11N45W. The ITCZ extends from 11N45W to 12N62W. 
In addition to the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves
section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to
11N between 20W and 27W, as well as from 08N to 12N between 41W 
and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough over the northern Gulf supports scattered
moderate convection along the northern Gulf coast from SE
LA to the western FL Panhandle. More scattered moderate convection
is active over the Gulf W of 91W near the south end of this
trough, also enhanced by another surface trough in the SW Gulf and
a divergent pattern aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
also active over the FL Straits. A 1023 mb Bermuda High extends 
a weak ridge inland across the northern Gulf states. This weak 
pressure pattern across the Gulf is supporting mostly light to 
gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are occurring across the western coastal waters of the 
Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a thermal trough there. 
 
For the forecast, a surface trough extends from near Panama City,
Florida to 29N89W and to near 28N93W. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are near the trough. The trough will move inland the
northern Gulf coast this evening. Otherwise, a surface ridge 
extends from the Bermuda High westward across the northern Gulf, 
and will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will 
support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight 
seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and 
night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan 
Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located 
just west of Bermuda and a 1008 mb Colombian low continues to 
support fresh to near gale force trades over the south-central to
SW Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 11 ft across much of this area. Fresh
to strong trade accompany a tropical wave across the eastern 
Caribbean N of 15N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh 
trades are over the remainder of the E Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere.
Seas are 2 to 5 ft with these winds. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms continue between Cuba and Jamaica, across 
the Cayman Islands and regional waters including the Yucatan 
Channel, and are supported by upper level troughing over the W
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda
High and lower pressure in northern South America will continue 
to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and 
portions of the SW basin will into the week. The associated ridge 
will gradually shift southward to near 28N through midweek 
maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to 
strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the Gulf of 
Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The 
Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later next week, which
may act to increase the trades again across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 25N across the basin,
broken only by a pair of troughs N of 26N between 48W and 59W. 
Saharan air and suspended dust is evident south and east of these 
troughs to as far sout has the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The 
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N 
and west of 55W into the E Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. 
North of 22N and east of 55W gentle to moderate trades prevail to
the Cabo Verde Islands, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong
NE winds and 5-8 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands 
southwestward to 20N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak trough along the U.S. 
southeastern coast in combination with ample deep moisture in 
place will help maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms 
offshore northern Florida east to near 74W. Otherwise, the ridge 
associated to high pressure of 1023 mb will shift southward to 
along 28N through Tue. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola 
and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, 
pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic 
ridge will drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may
result in stronger easterly winds. Of note, a tropical wave is 
expected to move off the west coast of Africa early in the week. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development thereafter and a tropical depression could form during
the latter half of this week while the system moves generally 
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

$$
Adams