Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 260439
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue May 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 38W
from 11N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. 

An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 15N southward
across western Venezuela, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 
14N to 16N between 63W and 70W.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves 
southwestward to 06N25W. An ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 04N35W,
then resumes from 02N41W to 02N49W. No significant convection is
evident at this time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A sharp mid/upper trough reaches from northeast Texas across the
western Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula. Abundant moisture and
divergence aloft ahead of the trough is supporting scattered moderate
to strong convection in the southerly flow across the central 
Gulf. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas are 
likely near these thunderstorms. Weak ridging extends from north- 
central Atlantic to Florida, supporting fresh SE winds across the 
Florida Straits, and moderate SE winds over the eastern Gulf where
seas are 3-5 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere across the 
central and western Gulf is supporting light to gentle breezes 
with 1-3 ft seas. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sustain gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds through Thu. The exception will be evening 
pulses of fresh to strong winds off the northern Yucatan. An 
upper-level trough across the western Gulf should continue to 
couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered heavy 
showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and northeastern
Gulf through at least Wed. These thunderstorms are capable of 
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and
locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with 
the latest forecast.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the far
northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel due to divergent flow
aloft ahead of a sharp mid/upper trough northwest of this area.
Elsewhere, no significant convection is active at this time 
across the basin. Strong ridging over the Atlantic along with 
lower pressure far south over Colombia is supporting fresh to 
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, with near-gale 
force winds possible off the coast of central Colombia. Moderate E
to SE winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central 
Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure 
in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean with 
rough seas through Thu night. These winds are expected to pulse to
near-gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and
morning hours into Thu. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and north 
of Jamaica will reach fresh to strong each evening through the 
same period. By Fri, most of the basin should experience moderate 
with locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south- 
central basin which fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 
remain through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from 31N35W to 26N41W, then becomes 
stationary to 30N63W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 10 ft 
seas are present near and behind the front. Farther south, fresh 
to strong SE winds and 8-10 ft seas are active from 15N to 26N 
and west of 58W into the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trade
winds and 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere south of 18N. Gentle breezes
and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate
to rough seas will prevail across waters south of 25N through 
Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as Atlantic high pressure 
shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. As the 
high weakens Wed night, winds and seas will diminish. The front  
will slide SE tonight and out of the region by Tue. Fresh NE winds
and rough seas N of it will diminish Tue. 

$$
ERA