Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 130615
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Mar 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward
from off the Carolina coast across 31N75W to beyond Jupiter
Island, Florida. Strong to gale-force N to NE winds and 7 to 10 
ft seas are found behind this front, off the Florida east coast.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near and
up to 110 nm southeast of the front. As the front continues to 
sink southward and gradually weaken overnight, both winds and seas
are going to slowly subside.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of 
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 06N20W. 
Farther south, an ITCZ extends from 01N15W across 01S30W to beyond
Fortaleza, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed south fo the monsoon trough from 03N to 07N
between 13W and 21W, and also up to 100 nm north and 200 m south
of the ITCZ east of 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The southwestern portion of a cold front reaches southwestward
from near Marco Island, Florida to beyond northwestern Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 70 nm
southeast of the front. Fresh N to NE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft
are noted at the Bay of Campeche and the northeastern Gulf. 
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for 
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will stall and significantly weaken 
over the southeastern Gulf into early Fri, dissipating by Fri 
night. Marine conditions will improve significantly early Fri 
through the weekend as weak high pressure settles just north of 
the basin. The next cold front is expected to move into the
northwestern Gulf Sun night and reach the southeastern Gulf by 
Mon night. Strong to near gale-force N winds will follow the front
along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale force winds will be 
possible in the northwestern Gulf, and offshore Tamaulipas and 
Veracruz, Mexico on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Slightly weaker pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge 
and the Colombian low has allowed trades to subside a bit across
the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 
to 8 ft still found off northeastern Colombia. Mostly gentle 
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are seen at the northwestern basin. 
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere near the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will remain strong enough
to support pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central 
basin through the morning hours. The high pressure will shift 
eastward through Fri night, causing fresh to strong winds 
to be confined to the south-central Caribbean, south of 13N 
during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve across
the region as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will 
build across the Atlantic to the north Sat night through Mon, 
leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from
the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.

Besides the cold front mentioned in the Special Feature section,
two surface troughs are triggering isolated thunderstorms from 25N
to 30N between 51W and 63W. Farther south, another surface trough
embedded within the trade-wind flow is bringing scattered showers
from 10N to 16N between 40W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, mainly gentle winds and seas
of 4 to 5 ft dominate north of 20N between 60W and the cold
front/Bahamas. To the east, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and
6 to 9 ft seas in large NE swell exist north of 18N between 35W 
and 60W. For the tropical Atlantic from 00N to 20N/25N between 35W
and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas
of 6 to 9 ft seas existed.  

For the forecast west of 55W, hazardous marine conditions will 
improve overnight. The front will rapidly weaken and begin to 
stall as it reaches from near 31N70W to extreme South Florida Fri 
morning, then dissipate by Fri evening. Central Atlantic high 
pressure will build west-southwestward toward the Bahamas through
the weekend before it begins to retreat eastward early next week 
in response to the next cold front that will be moving off the 
U.S. southeastern coast late Mon, then slow down and stall from 
near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late 
Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop 
over the NW forecast waters starting late Sun afternoon or early 
evening ahead of the front. These conditions will shift eastward 
to the north-central waters by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest
to north winds will follow the front. To the S, rough seas 
produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of the 
Bahamas early next week.

$$

Chan