Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 012257
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 29.9N 94.0W at 01/2100
UTC or 30 nm W of Cameron Louisiana, moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 10 
ft and rapidly subsiding as Eduard pushes inland. Edouard is 
moving toward the northwest near 5 kt, and this motion is 
expected to continue for the next day or so. Continued weakening 
is expected during the next day or so, and Edouard is forecast to 
weaken to a tropical depression tonight and dissipate by Wednesday
night. The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Edouard NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present within 120 nm on both sides of the trough.

A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 
51W, south of 23N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is
interacting with an upper level trough and producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 15N to 24N and between 48W
and 53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 09N49W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N53W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is occurring from 04N to 10N between 38N and 46W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Edouard located over SW Louisiana.

Away from Tropical Storm Edouard, a weak pressure gradient results
in moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen in the eastern Gulf as storms 
that previously formed over Florida and western Cuba push offshore.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Edouard is near 29.9N 94.0W, or about 
35 nm W of Cameron, Louisiana at 5 PM EDT. It is moving northwest
at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, 
and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Edouard will move 
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 30.7N 94.8W late 
tonight, then move farther inland to near 31.6N 95.7W Wed 
afternoon and dissipate Thu morning. In the wake of Edouard, 
relatively weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low centered west of the Cayman Islands, a surface
trough across Central Cuba and diurnal heating combine to produce
showers and isolated thunderstorms over Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica
and surrounding waters. Similar activity is present in the SW 
Caribbean. High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to 
strong easterly winds and moderate seas across the south-central 
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate 
seas are evident in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will continue moving 
WNW through Thu. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient
between the subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in 
northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong 
trades along with moderate to rough seas over the central and 
eastern Caribbean through the next few days while moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain over the remainder
of the basin. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and
South Florida. This feature is interacting with an upper level low
over the Florida panhandle and combined with a divergent flow
aloft, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are present
north of 25N and west of 70W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge centered southwest of the Azores. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found between 20W and
55W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
occurring west of 70W. However, stronger winds and higher seas are
likely occurring near the strongest convection by the Bahamas.
Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough
seas are present north of 18N and east of 20W off Morocco and NW
Mauritania and the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from the
central Bahamas to central Cuba. Moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds are over the waters south of about 26N between 67W
and 77W. The trough will continue moving WNW through Thu. 
Elsewhere, abundant deep tropical moisture will continue to help 
sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 63W 
through Wed. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate, 
supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over 
the forecast waters. 

$$
Delgado