Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 171015
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01S35W and to 00N50W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of 
the ITCZ between 23W-26.5W, also within 120 nm south of the ITCZ
between 29W-31W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 38.5W-41.5W
and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 46W-48W. Similar 
activity is just west of the ITCZ from 01S to 02N between 50W-52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1020 mb centered over the NE Gulf at 29N85W 
basically dominates the weather pattern across the area, providing 
for light to gentle winds in the basin, except for gentle to 
moderate north to northeast winds in the eastern Gulf south of 29N 
and east of 85W. Seas over the Gulf are in the range of 2 to 3 ft 
west of 89W and 3 to 4 ft east of 89W as seen in overnight altimeter 
satellite data passes and as recorded in the latest buoy 
observations.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the area in 
the wake of the recent cold front maintaining rather tranquil 
conditions. The high pressure will slide eastward through Wed 
night in response to a deepening low pressure system in the upper 
U.S. Midwest region that will be moving eastward. As this happens,
the pressure gradient will tighten over the western half of the 
Gulf leading to moderate to fresh return southerly flow over those
waters. These winds will expand to the western part of E Gulf Thu
through late Fri. The low pressure will pull a cold front into 
the NW Gulf on Sat and Sat night, followed by fresh to strong 
northerly winds expected behind it Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A trough extends from central Cuba near 21N78.5W to 18N83W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from 20N to 21N 
between the trough and 81W. Isolated showers are possible 
elsewhere near the trough. High pressure across the central Atlantic 
is controlling the trade wnd regime throughout. The associated 
gradient is allowing for fresh to strong trades to exist in the 
south-central sections of the basin, including offshore near the 
coast of Colombia, where an overnight scatterometer satellite data 
pass confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas with these winds 
are in the range of 6 to 9 ft. Overnight scatterometer satellite 
data passes indicate that moderate to locally fresh trades are 
elsewhere south of about 17N and east of 81W while light to gentle 
trades are north of 17N and east of 81W, and light to gentle north 
to northeast winds are west of 81W. Seas elsewhere across the basin 
are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft 
in northeast swell south of 11N between the coast of Colombia and 
80W. Lower seas of 3 to 4 ft are north of 18N and west of 76W. Seas 
of 2 to 3 ft are near the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east winds
will continue offshore Colombia through the forecast period. 
These winds are expected to expand in coverage starting late on 
Thu, with the possibly of near gale-force speeds Fri and Sat night
as Atlantic ridging noses westward tightening the pressure 
gradient. Fresh northeast winds will develop in the Windward 
Passage and in the lee side of Cuba today through Wed evening. 
Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through the rest of the
forecast period, and trades elsewhere will generally remain at 
moderate to fresh during this same time. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has recently passed Bermuda, where northwest winds 
are gusting to 30 kt. It is analyzed from near 31N66W 
southwestward to 26N70W and to the coast of central Cuba at 22N78W. 
Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are ahead of the front to 
near 56W and north of 27N as depicted in overnight scatterometer 
satellite data passes. Seas with these winds are in the range of 7 
to 10 ft. Mostly fresh north to northeast winds are behind the front 
north of about 27N along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in a long-period 
north to northeast swell.  A trough is out ahead of the front from 
28N66W to 22.5N70W. In addition, a deep layer trough is shifting 
eastward between 57W and 73W. Latest satellite imagery shows very 
active convection in the form of scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the waters generally north of about 22N between 
55W and the front/trough. This activity may be accompanied by strong 
gusty winds as it translates in a general eastward motion.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the rest of the tropical 
Atlantic, sustaining moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas south of about 20N and west of 25W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
reach from near 31N59W to 26N66W and to the southeastern Bahamas 
this afternoon. It will cross 55W tonight into early Wed. Fresh 
to strong south to southwest winds ahead of the front N of 28N 
will diminish to fresh speeds as the front crosses 55W. Fresh to 
strong north to northeast winds behind the front will become north 
to northeast fresh winds this morning. Elsewhere, long-period 
northerly swell will continue to support rough seas over the waters 
E and NE of the Bahamas through Thu night. Looking ahead, fresh 
southwest winds are expected to develop over the far NW part of the 
area beginning Sat ahead of an approaching cold front, and as a high 
pressure ridge noses westward toward Florida roughly along 26N. 
Active convection is over a good portion of the eastern half of the 
offshore zones N of 22N due to an upper-level trough in the area, 
the approaching cold front and a surface trough, remnants of an old 
frontal boundary, that extends from 23N55W to 23N60W and to near 
22N65W. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest 
forecasts.

$$
Aguirre