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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;618262
AXNT20 KNHC 081117
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jul 08 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South
America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over
the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should
pulse to gale-force just north of Colombia tonight before
diminishing to just below gale-force Wed. These winds will again
pulse back up gale-force at night over these same waters through
the rest of period, except on Thu and Sun. Seas are expected
to peak around 13 ft. Gale-force winds are also expected in the
Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from
03N to 16N, and is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the axis from 07N
to 09N, and within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 08N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of
17N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers
are within 60 nm west of the axis from 08N to 10N.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W south of 19N. It
is moving westward at 15 kt. Only a few weak showers are near the
axis from 12N to 15N.
A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W south of 19N.
It is moving westward at an estimated motion of 10 kt. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are along the axis from 15N to
17N, and extend westward to inland the coast of northeast
Honduras.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 11N24W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N28.5W. It resumes at
08N30W and continues to 07N40W and to 07N52W. A small ITCZ segment
extends from 07N53W to the coast of South America at 07N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of
the ITCZ between 34W and 39W. Similar convection is well south of
the trough from 07N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1020 mb high is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near 27N87W. This
high is along the western extension of a broad Atlantic ridge axis
that extends westward across south-central Florida and across the
central Gulf. The associated pressure gradient is generally allowing
for light to gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N and for
gentle to moderate easterly winds south of 26N, except for mostly
moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are of slight state,
except for moderate state seas in the Bay of Campeche.
Meanwhile, an upper-level low and mid-level trough over the NW
Gulf is acting on a very unstable and moisture-laden atmosphere.
This has lead to the development of scattered showers and numerous
thunderstorms over much of the west-central and southwestern
portions of the basin, south of about 25N and west of 93W.
For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the basin will
change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the
northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. Little overall changes
are expected with the winds and seas. Fresh to strong northeast
to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night
due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan
peninsula. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the west-
central and southwestern Gulf is expected to perhaps last through
Thu, or possibly a little longer.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia.
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
lower pressures over northern South America is bringing fresh to
near gale trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds
are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong east winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
in the Gulf of Honduras while fresh to strong northeast winds are
funneling into the Windward Passage. Seas there are also 4 to 6 ft,
except 6 to 8 ft in the Atlantic entrance to the passage. Elsewhere,
mostly fresh trades are over the basin south of 18N east of 84W.
Seas are 6 to 8 ft between 67W and 84W, and 5 to 7 ft east of 67W.
The southern portion of an upper-level trough extends from the
central Gulf of America to the northwestern Caribbean. Upper
divergence to its east is helping to sustain isolated showers and
thunderstorms over this part of the sea, and the same for similar
activity that is along the coast of Honduras and just offshore that
coast between 85W and 87W, and likewise for the activity that is
along the southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic
high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America will
continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central
Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds to gale- force just
north of Colombia will diminish to just below gale- force this
morning. These winds will again pulse back up gale- force at night
over these same waters through the rest of the period, except on Thu
and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela
Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse
to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings
through the weekend. A fast-moving tropical wave should reach the
Lesser Antilles this evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over
the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms may accompany this wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 27N, anchored
by a 1027 mb high center at 26N44W. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is producing
fresh to strong trades south of about 23N and between 70W and 75W as
noted in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas of 5 to
7 ft are with these trades. Farther east, fresh to locally strong
trades are southeast of a line from 28N19W to 22N40W to 22N50W to
22N65W to 23N70W, except southeast of the line east of 31W where
light to gentle southerly to variable winds are present Seas are 6
to 8 ft over these waters, except 4 to 6 ft southeast of the
aforementioned line east of 31W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and seas of about 4 to 6 ft remain.
A weak trough is analyzed from 30N49W to 32N61W. Isolated weak
showers are near the trough. A cold front extends from 32N45W to
33N54W. Earlier scattered moderate convection noted to the south
of this boundary has significantly weakened.
For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge axis along 27N will
change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward.
The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh
trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N,
except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest
winds will exist. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas
are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to
the Windward Passage through the weekend.
$$
Aguirre
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