Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141708
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jul 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the far eastern Atlantic along 
20W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is seen from 04N to 15N and E of 25W, likely
enhanced by the Atlantic monsoon trough.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88-89W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is found south of 17N and west of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N40W. The
ITCZ then continues from 06N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the monsoon trough between 25W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary draped across the southern and southeastern
United States, along with diurnal heating and plenty of moisture
combine to support scattered moderate convection across much of 
the northern Gulf waters, especially north of 27N. A surface
trough in the Bay of Campeche supports scattered moderate
convection across the far SW Gulf. Outside of convection, the 
Atlantic ridge extends across Florida and into the Gulf. This 
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate 
seas off Yucatan and in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh 
westerly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 29N. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the 
area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern 
Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, 
and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the persistent subtropical ridge
anchored north of the islands and lower pressures in northern
South America continue to support strong to near gale-force 
easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. 
Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate seas are occurring in the
remainder of the central Caribbean, Windward Passage and the Gulf
of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean, the Windward 
Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America
will support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the 
central Caribbean through the week. Rough seas will prevail with 
these winds. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each 
evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE
Bahamas and between 70W and 80W, along with fresh NE winds E of
Cabo Verde between 15N and 25N. Moderate easterly winds and 
moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and west of 30W. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

A surface trough is analyzed from the central and northern 
Bahamas to near 31N74W. Another surface trough is analyzed from
22N68W to 29N54W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring along and within 100 nm of both trough axes. Convection
is suppressed elsewhere across much of the basin due to a large 
plume of Saharan dust and mid- latitude dry air.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will 
support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds 
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night 
offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
Adams