Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;449233
AXNT20 KNHC 241703
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then curves 
southwestward to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S36W. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 
02N to 07N and east of 15W. Numerous moderate convection is from 
07S to 02S between 23W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move 
eastward into the Florida Straits. A 1017 mb high NE of the 
northern Bahamas extends a ridge across Florida and into the 
central Gulf. A weak pressure gradient over the region is 
supporting gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate 
seas. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. 
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas 
basin-wide through Mon. The exception will be off the Yucatan 
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to 
fresh during the evenings. Southeasterly winds are forecast to 
reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of Gulf Mon 
night into mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the lee side of 
central Cuba, and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage due
to a surface trough over the area. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high is 
NE of the northern Bahamas and is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas basin- wide. 

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will 
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal 
boundary, currently located north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and 
eastern Cuba, lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming 
weekend. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual 
pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in 
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across
the entire basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh 
speeds over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon night through 
mid-week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed 
from 24N53W to 21N70W to 22N78W. The trough is supporting 
scattered showers in the Great Bahama Bank while an area of 
showers and thunderstorms continue to migrate from the Florida 
Straits to the northern Bahamas. Between the trough and the areas
of showers is a 1017 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas, which is
supporting moderate or lighter NE to E winds and slight to 
moderate seas across the SW N Atlantic waters. A weakening cold
front extends from 31N39W and extends to 28.5N45W. East of this
front, a 1021 mb high is centered near 27N26W. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh 
SW winds ahead of the front to 40W and N of 25N. Seas with these 
winds are 5 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the 
Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and the coast of NW Africa with 
moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will lift
northward this weekend. A weak low may develop along the trough 
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast 
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are 
expected beginning today as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun. A third cold front will enter the waters off 
NE Florida by Sun night, and extend from 31N68W to South Florida 
by Mon night.

$$
KRV