Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;422853
AXNT20 KNHC 042302
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 28N, south of 16N, moving W at 
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 04N to 11N between 21W and 27W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, south of 17N, moving W at 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05.5N to
11.5N between 33W and 39W. 

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, south of 20N, moving W at 
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 17N 
between 66W and 74W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues 
southwestward to 09N22W. The ITCZ is analyzed in two segments, 
from 08N27W to 08.5N36W, and from 09N38W to 06N55W. Aside from 
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 15W and 51W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW 
to Florida, while a weak ridge persists across the SE U.S. and 
extends south-southwestward across the north Gulf waters. This 
pattern supports light to gentle winds and slight seas across 
most of the basin, except for moderate NE to E winds along coastal
sections of the Yucatan Peninsula associated with afternoon
thermal trough. Convergent low level winds are leading to 
scattered showers across the SE Gulf, and scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms across the north central Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the Gulf waters through the forecast period, supporting gentle to
moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds 
over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds 
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through midweek. These winds are the 
result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight 
to moderate seas are expected. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

1025 mb high pressure is centered over the central Atlantic near
29N37W and extends a relatively narrow ridge westward to the NW
Bahamas and central Florida. The pressure gradient between this 
subtropical ridge and a 1010 mb Colombian Low continues to 
support fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft
in the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds 
and moderate seas are across the E Caribbean, behind the tropical
wave. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail NW portions. Broad middle to upper-level low 
pressure across the western half of the basin is supporting 
scattered strong afternoon convection across Hispaniola and Cuba,
and across the SW Caribbean south of 14N to the E Pacific 
extension of the monsoon continues, including inland over Panama, 
Costa Rica, and southeastern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge
north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
over the central Caribbean through midweek. The aerial extent of
these winds will increase Sun night into Mon, and then expand
across much of the basin east of 80W Tue through Thu as high
pressure strengthens north of the basin. Expect winds to reach 
near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela from Sun through Wed. Active thunderstorms across SW
portions of the basin will slowly shift northward into NW portions
Sun through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of
the area along 32N-33N between 56W and 74W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms persist between the front and 27N between 53W and
73W. Similar shower activity is farther east within 90 nm either 
side of a surface trough that extends from 30N46W to 26N53W. 
Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward into the
subtropical Atlantic waters, to 1025 mb high pressure near 29N37W,
then westward to the NW Bahamas and central Florida. This pressure
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across much
of the waters S of 22N between 25W and 70W, where seas are
generally 6 to 8 ft. North of 22N and W of 40W away from the 
front and surface trough, winds are moderate or weaker from the S 
to SE with seas slight.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will build 
westward into central Florida through midweek. This pattern will 
support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and 
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are 
likely each evening and night N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, 
including approaches to the Windward Passage, beginning on Sun.
Look for winds to strengthen to fresh to strong S of 23N Tue night
and Wed as a strong tropical wave moves approaches the region.

$$
Stripling