Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 181438
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1430 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly over west Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 05N17W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N
to 05N between 17W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh S winds and 3-5 seas across
the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere with
1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds 
and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf 
through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally 
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin, north 
of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as 
a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a strong 
cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this weekend 
and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale force winds
and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Tampico and 
Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the 
front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The gradient between 1025 mb high pressure over Bermuda and 1011
mb low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE
winds and 7 to 10 ft seas off the coast of Colombia, along with 
fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere across the central
Caribbean. Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
elsewhere. No major thunderstorm activity is observed currently,
although isolated showers are likely over the northeast Caribbean
and off Panama. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the 
south- central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and 
the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night 
offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near 
and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of 
Honduras this afternoon into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to 
occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the 
basin through the forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may 
develop east of the Lesser Antilles late this week as a N swell 
progresses through the central tropical Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force 
extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to 
the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues southwestward to 
26N60W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central 
Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity has ceased along the front,
although showers are likely ongoing. A broad ridge is building in
the wake of the front, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure area
west of Bermuda near 31N68W. Moderate to fresh are active near 
the front west of 65W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere 
west of the front. Rough to very rough combined seas primarily in 
NW swell persist west of the front to 70W as well, with wave 
heights as high sas 15 ft near 31N55W. Farther east, a ridge
extends from high pressure near the Azores southwestward to
roughly 22N55W. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas are along the ridge
axis, with moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted
southeast of the ridge over the remainder of the Atlantic
discussion area. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic 
east of about 35W. Surface observations from the Cape Verde 
Islands are reporting dust. 

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 75W 
will prevail today, in the wake of a weakening front extending 
from the central tropical Atlantic through the central Bahamas. 
Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of 27N and 
east of 62W through late tonight. Seas will slowly subside from 
west to east tonight into early Fri. Otherwise, moderate to 
locally fresh E to NE winds will continue through tonight over the
central basin as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. 
Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. 
Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to push offshore of 
the southeastern U.S. on Sun, and increasing winds and rapidly 
building seas are expected in the wake of the front through early 
next week. 

$$
Christensen