Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 310426
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
A 1012 mb low pressure system is located over the north-central
Gulf of America, south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, near
28N 89.5W, and drifting westward near 5 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of
this low. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data
indicate that this system has become better organized since
yesterday, 20 to 25 kt winds occurring across the NE semicircle. 
Additional development is possible as the low moves slowly west- 
northwestward, and a short- lived tropical depression or tropical 
storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or 
southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests 
along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the 
progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or 
southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. In 
anticipation of this intensification occurring, a Gale Warning has
been issued. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through 7 days.

Near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):
A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is
producing sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms from the
Mona Passage east and southeastward across portions of Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent NE Caribbean and 
Atlantic waters to the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data 
and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a 
closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during 
the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west- 
northwestward at about 20 kt. This system will bring locally heavy
rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple 
of days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by
the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern 
Gulf of America. Currently, scattered to numerous moderate to 
strong convection extends from the St Croix area southeastward to 
the waters just W of the northern Leeward Islands. Strong winds 20
to 30 kt accompany this wave, with seas to 8 to 11 ft across much
of the nearby Atlantic waters, and 6 to 9 ft in the Caribbean 
Passages. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals 
from this broad system will vary from island to island, as local 
topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest 
rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific 
rainfall forecasts for your local area. 

Please, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, along 22W 
south of 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated shower 
activity is near the wave axis.

Another Atlantic tropical is along 42W-43W, south of 21N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 15.5N between 38W and 47W.

A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,
extends from the Atlantic near 22N66W south-southwestward through
the Mona Passage then southwestward to NW Venezuela. Scattered to
numerous strong convection is occurring ahead of the wave across
northern Colombia. Please, see the Special Features section for 
more details.

Another tropical is over the western Caribbean near 82W, south of
19N, moving westward near 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance 
convection over the SW Caribbean, south of 15N and west of 80W,
especially over northern Costa Rica and coastal sections of 
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from Gambia at 13N17W 
southwestward to 08.5N25W. The ITCZ begins near 10N27W and 
extends to 12.5N43W, then resumes at 10N46W and continues 
westward to coastal Venezuela at 10N63W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 08N to 11N east of 20W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N 
between 26W and 38W and from 07N to 11N between 47W and 59W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection has
become concentrated within 90 nm of a 1012 mb low pressure (AL97)
south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, near 28N 89.5W. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds are occurring across the N and E portions
of this low, where seas are to 5 ft. Scattered weak to moderate
showers dot the eastern portions of the Gulf, and have diminished
in intensity and coverage in recent hours. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient prevails across the basin, producing moderate 
or weaker winds with seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, Invest AL97 has become better defined and 
continued gradual development is expected as the low moves slowly 
west- northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or 
tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the 
Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday or Tuesday
night. A Gale Warning has been issued in anticipation of this
intensification. There is a high chance of tropical formation of 
this low pressure over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high 
pressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining 
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to 
fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings 
due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the Yucatan 
Peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall
information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across 
the NE Caribbean. 

The pressure gradient between a weak Bermuda High north of the 
area and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong 
trades over the south-central Caribbean south of 14N with seas of
5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds have shifted across the SE
Caribbean where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate
or weaker with seas 5 ft or less.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, a strong tropical wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will
move westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then 
eastern Cuba into Tue with strong gusty winds, rough seas and 
periods of heavy rainfall. Elsewhere across the basin, the 
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low 
will continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and
moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern 
Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the 
waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across
the NE Caribbean.

The Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1027 
mb center at 34N34W extending westward to 75W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure near the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades S
of 24N between 30W and 60W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters N of 24N and
W of 60W, including the NW Bahamas, as a middle level trough 
continues across this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly 
will move W to W-NW and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, 
then eastern Cuba into Tue, bringing strong gusty winds, rough seas 
and periods of heavy rainfall to waters S of 23N through early 
this week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer 
trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. 
To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting 
mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. 

$$
Stripling