Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 010414
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Edouard: Satellite and radar presentation of
Tropical Depression Five have improved this afternoon and evening,
and advisories have been issued for newly upgraded Tropical Storm
Edouard. At 01/0300 UTC Edouard is centered near 28.6N 91.8W, or 
145 nm SE of Cameron, Louisiana, moving W-NW at 6 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt and peak seas to 13 ft. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm across 
the northern semicircle. A west-northwestward to northwestward 
motion is forecast during the next couple of days. Edouard will be
moving through a favorable environment, and strengthening is 
expected until landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border late Tue. 
A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning have been issued for a 
portion of the northwest Gulf coast.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Edouard NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W-29W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 12.5N between 24W and 32W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is 
noted in from 13.5N to 17.5N between 45W and 48W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is 
noted moving into NE portions of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 10N24W to
07.5N31W to 12N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N51W to 08N59W 
along the coast of Guyana. Scatted to locally numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 09N between 
32N and 44W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 09N to 
11N between 49W and 52W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Edouard.

Away from this feature, weak high pressure dominates, supporting
gentle or weaker winds and slight seas, except for moderate to
locally fresh NE winds along the western coastal waters of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered evening thunderstorms across 
northern and central Florida are shifting westward into the 
coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend and up to 75 nm offshore 
from Venice to Fort Meyers.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Edouard will move to near 29.2N 
93.0W Tue morning, inland to 30.1N 94.3W Tue evening, then move
further inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.1N 
95.4W Wed morning, before dissipating Wed evening. In the wake of
the tropical cyclone, relatively weak high pressure will prevail 
allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The low level remnants of former Dolly, now a surface trough, are
moving across Haiti and the adjacent Atlantic waters tonight, 
with a surge of E to SE winds across the NE Caribbean and the Mona
Passage, as recently depicted by satellite scatterometer data. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from the 
Windward Passage eastward across portions of Hispaniola, Puerto 
Rico and the northern Leeward Islands and the adjacent Caribbean 
waters N of 16.5N. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the 
Azores High and associated ridge and lower pressure across 
northern South America is leading to fresh to locally strong 
trades across the central and eastern basin S of 16N and E of 73W,
with highest winds offshore western Venezuela. Seas in this 
region are 5 to 7 ft. To the W of 73W, and the low level remnants 
of Dolly, winds and seas are moderate across the SW Caribbean, 
with gentle trades and slight seas in the NW Caribbean. Isolated 
showers accompany the northern portion of the tropical wave along 
81W. 

For the forecast, A surface trough, remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,
will continue to move W-NW and impact the Turks and Caicos, Cuba 
and some portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas Tue into
Wed. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between 
the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to induce 
fresh to strong easterly trades and moderate to rough seas over 
the central and eastern Caribbean through the rest of the period, 
with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevailing for the remainder of the waters. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level trough extending from south Florida E-NE to just SW
of Bermuda continues to promote scattered moderate isolated strong
convection across this area, north of 26.5N. A deep layered upper
trough extends from 30N46W to Puerto Rico and is also promoting
scattered moderate convection nearby, with more concentrated
convection across Puerto Rico coastal waters, and near 30N46W. At
the surface, a 1028 mb Azores High near 33N35W extends a ridge
westward to near 66W. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are 
found S of 25N between 73W, the surface trough and remnants of 
Dolly, and Puerto Rico, where seas are to 6 to locally 8 ft, and 
accompanied by scattered moderate convection. South of the ridge, 
fresh NE to E trade winds prevail S of 24N between 25W and the 
tropical wave along 48W. Seas in this zone are 5 to 6 ft. 
Elsewhere west of 35W, winds are moderate or less, with seas 3 to
5 ft. Fresh to locally strong NNE winds are noted off the African
coast and near the Canary Islands, south and southwestward to 
near 17N and E of 25W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough, remnants of 
Tropical Storm Dolly across Haiti and adjacent waters tonight  
will continue to move W-NW and impact the Turks and Caicos, Cuba 
and some portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas Tue into
Wed, bringing fresh to locally strong SE winds and scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters S of about 24N. 
Elsewhere, abundant deep tropical moisture will continue to help 
enhance scattered thunderstorms W of 65W into Florida through 
Wed. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting 
mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the 
forecast waters. 

$$
Stripling