Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;321942
AXNT20 KNHC 140822
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jan 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of 
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 06N17W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N24W to 02N35W to the north coast
of Brazil at 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 07N between 39W and 50.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed from just offshore Texas near 28N97W to 
just inland Mexico at 18N94W. High pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed
in the NW Gulf offshore Texas at 27N94.5W. Winds are mainly gentle
to locally moderate in anticyclonic flow across the basin. Seas
are in the 1-3 ft range N of 25N, and 3-6 ft range S of 26N in
residual N-NE swell.

For the forecast, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across 
the basin through early this morning. The next cold front will 
move into the Gulf later today and tonight. The front will shift 
quickly southeast of the basin by Thu evening, and will be 
followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will 
improve Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh 
to strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the 
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad ridging NE of the basin and 1010 mb low pressure over
northern Colombian near 08.5N75.5W supports fresh to strong NE-E
winds in the S-central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere in the central Caribbean S of 20N, with seas of 5-8 ft,
highest near the N coast of Colombia. Winds are mainly moderate or
weaker across the remainder of the basin, locally fresh near the
Windward Passage., with seas in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, pulsing of fresh to strong winds offshore of NW
Colombia will diminish by Thu, then return this weekend. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail through tonight. 
A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E 
Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure 
gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the 
upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds 
and building seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N57W to the Central Bahamas and
the Straits of Florida at 24N80W. Some scattered moderate
convection is noted on satellite imagery N of 27N between 56W and
61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker W of a line from 31N53W
to Puerto Rico, except locally fresh near the Windward Passage.
Seas are in the 3-6 ft range W of 70W in N-NE swell, and 5-7 ft
between 55W and 70W. Moderate to fresh, locally strong trades are
noted S of 28N and E of 45W, where seas are 7-11 ft in mixed 
swell. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere with 5-7 ft
seas in mixed swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
31N62W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will gradually 
dissipate early today. A pre-frontal trough will emerge off the 
coast of NE Florida later this morning and quickly move eastward, 
accompanied by fresh to strong winds with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms north of 27N. The next cold front will enter the NW 
waters by Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE 
Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat 
morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong
winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to
reach gale force Thu night east of the front and N of 29N. A 
reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming 
weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky