Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;715146
AXNT20 KNHC 011045
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Edouard: Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 
29.0N 92.8W at 01/0900 UTC or 60 nm SSE of Cameron Louisiana, 
moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt and 
peak seas to 13 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted within 90 nm across the northern semicircle. A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next 
couple of days. Edouard will be moving through a favorable 
environment, and strengthening is expected until landfall near the
Louisiana-Texas border tonight. A Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm
Warning, and Storm Surge Warning are in effect for portion of the
northwest Gulf coast.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Edouard NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 05N to 14N between 26W and 33W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 23N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted along the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 10N44W. The 
ITCZ extends from 10N51W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is occurring from 03N to 10N between 31N and 42W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Edouard.

Away from this feature, weak high pressure dominates, supporting
gentle or weaker winds and slight seas, except for moderate to
locally fresh NE winds along the western coastal waters of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered evening thunderstorms across 
northern and central Florida are shifting westward into the 
coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend and up to 75 nm offshore 
from Venice to Fort Meyers.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Edouard will move to 29.7N 93.8W
this afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression 
near 30.6N 95.0W Wed morning, inland to 31.7N 95.9W Wed afternoon,
and dissipate Thu morning. In the wake of the tropical cyclone, 
relatively weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The low level remnants of former Dolly, now a surface trough, are
moving across Haiti and the adjacent Atlantic waters, with a 
surge of E to SE winds across the NE Caribbean and the Mona 
Passage, as recently depicted by satellite scatterometer data. 
Scattered moderate convection extends from the Windward Passage 
eastward across portions of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the 
northern Leeward Islands and the adjacent Caribbean waters N of 
16.5N. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the Azores High 
and associated ridge and lower pressure across northern South 
America is leading to fresh to locally strong trades across the 
central and eastern basin S of 16N and E of 73W, with highest 
winds offshore western Venezuela. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 
ft. To the W of 80W, winds and seas are moderate across the SW 
Caribbean, with gentle trades and slight seas in the NW Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection accompany the northern portion of 
the tropical wave along 81W. 

For the forecast, the remnants of Dolly will continue moving WNW 
through midweek. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient
between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to 
induce fresh to strong easterly trades and moderate to rough seas 
over the central and eastern Caribbean through the rest of the 
period, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevailing for the remainder of the waters.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level trough extending from south Florida E-NE to SW of 
Bermuda continues to promote scattered moderate convection across
this area, north of 26N. A deep layered upper trough extends from
30N46W to Puerto Rico and is also promoting scattered moderate 
convection nearby, with more concentrated convection across Puerto
Rico coastal waters. At the surface, a 1026 mb Azores High near 
35N32W extends a ridge westward to near 66W. Fresh to strong E to 
SE winds are found S of 27N and W of 70W, and S of 25N and E of
50W. Moderate seas prevail across the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the remnants of Dolly will continue
moving WNW through midweek. Elsewhere, abundant deep tropical 
moisture will continue to help enhance scattered thunderstorms W 
of 63W through Wed. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will 
dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas over the forecast waters. 

$$
ERA