Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;685549
AXNT20 KNHC 270919
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis across the Cabo 
Verde Islands near 25W, extending from 09N to 18N, and moving W 
at 10-15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted 
near the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, extending from 09N to 
21N, and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
along the southern end of the wave from 05N to 09N between 52W and
57W, and across the N end of the wave from 16N to 21N between 57W
and 61W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 71W 
southward from 18N into Venezuela, and moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 12.5N near the 
wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 78W, from 
18N southward to E Panama, and moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 14.5N between 78W and 82.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.5N17W and 
continues to 11N39W. The ITCZ extends from 11.5N40W to 06N57.5W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the coast
of Africa from 05.5N to 13.5N E of 19W. Similar convection is present
from 08N to 11.5N between 29W and 36W, and from 08N to 12.5N
between 45W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
extends southwestward to northern Florida, and supports a surface
trough across the NE Gulf along 29.5N into the Florida Big Bend.
Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorms area south of this
surface trough and along the W coast. Narrow lines of moderate
convection extend SW to NE across the Straits of Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the SW Bay of
Campeche, ahead of the Yucatan trough shifting westward off the 
peninsula. High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 25N88W and 
is supporting light to gentle variable winds, except gentle to
moderate W to NW winds along the northern Gulf coastal and 
immediate offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are 
also ongoing in the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface 
trough that is coming off the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are 3 to 4
ft ahead of this Yucatan trough, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will meander about the central Gulf
and weaken through Wed, leading to gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas. The high will then reorganize over the SE
Gulf Thu through Fri. Pulsing fresh NE to E winds are likely each
afternoon and evening along and just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Looking 
ahead, showers and thunderstorms are expected to become active 
across the NE Gulf Wed afternoon through Thu as a frontal boundary
sinks to just N of the area. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge extends westward along 24N-25N, to the north of
the basin, and is supporting only fresh trade winds and seas of 
5-7 ft across the central Caribbean S of 16N. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. An upper
level low is centered just N of the Virgin Islands, and
supporting convection described above over the Atlantic, just
ahead of an approaching tropical wave. Scattered heavy showers
area across much of the NE Caribbean E of 67W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic
ridge along 24N-25N and the Colombian low will support fresh to
locally strong trade winds with moderate to locally rough seas 
across the south-central Caribbean S of 15N through Tue, with 
fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will strengthen N 
of the basin Tue night through Fri, leading to increasing winds 
and seas across central and west-central portions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extending from a 1024 mb center of high pressure
near 32N42W extends southwestward to near 25N67W, and then
westward to the Straits of Florida. To the N of 27N and west of 
67W, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring 
ahead of a stalling cold front along 31.5N and offshore of the
Carolinas. Moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds prevail ahead 
of the front are moderate to fresh from the SW extending to 63W 
and N of 27N. Elsewhere N of 22N and W of 40W, moderate or 
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Across the tropical
Atlantic S of 22N moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail,
with seas of 4-7 ft. 1024 mb high pressure near the Azores is
promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from the Canary Islands
to 40W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current ridge in place from the 
Central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will persist through 
Tue. Expect fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas 
across the northern waters, mainly N of 28N, most of the week as 
sinking frontal boundaries remain just to the north of area. The 
Atlantic ridge will building modestly westward and into the 
central Bahamas Tue night through Fri. 

$$

Stripling