Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;914801
AXNT20 KNHC 042230
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28N, south of 20N, 
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
depicted from 08N to 12N between 27W and 30W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, 
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 12N between 54W and 57W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave along 71W, south of 19N, moving
west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated 
with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues 
southwestward to 07N35W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W 
to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 
10N between 20W and 40W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
over the central. A ridge dominates most of the Gulf region from 
east to west along 27W, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas 
are generally 1 to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the waters
into the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with 
moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a 
diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low is maintaining fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas 
offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E winds 
and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin, 
except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are 
present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over 
portions of central America. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along
with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. Winds over these
waters will briefly diminish this weekend, then increase to 
strong speeds early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail through early next week.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1014 mb low pressure is centered off northeast Florida near
30N78W, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
northern Bahamas. Additional showers and thunderstorms along with
moderate winds are active along a trough reaching from 24N65W to 
north of Hispaniola, and near another trough southeast of Bermuda 
extending from 31N58W to 29N64W. 1018 mb high pressure is between 
these features between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda near 
30N72W. Gentle breezes and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W.
A ridge extends from the Azores to 25N55W, and this supports
gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere east of 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across 
the area into early next week, generating a weak pressure pattern.
This will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
across the area. A weak cold front may approach the northern 
waters, then stall along 31N for the first part of next week.

$$
Christensen