Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Check the date

Expires:No;;930312
AXNT20 KNHC 260959
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0955 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the
Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia and over the
Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force tonight through
early Sat morning, and Sat night through Sun morning again. Seas 
under these winds are expected to range from 12 to 15 ft north of 
Colombia and 4 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please refer to 
High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 10N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present south of 10N and between 23W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 17N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 17N and between 40W and 53W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
evident near the trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from
07N19W to 04N26W and then from 04N29W to 02N51W. Please read the
Tropical Waves section for details on the convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Isolated showers are noted in the Bay of Campeche, near the coast
of Veracruz, while generally dry conditions prevail in the rest of
the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are found in
the NW, south-central and SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits.
Seas in these waters are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will persist over the eastern Gulf
through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, 
except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the 
northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE 
to S winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. 
Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into 
the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Warning off Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the
Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics results fresh to
near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas in the 
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the broad subtropical ridge north of the islands
will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to
locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean through the 
forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force during the 
nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Sat. Elsewhere, 
pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas 
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. 
Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast
in the remainder of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level shortwave north of the Leeward Islands is 
enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 55W 
and 63W. Elsewhere, a broad Atlantic ridge anchored by a 1030 mb 
high pressure system near 34N49W supports moderate to locally 
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge will
persist across the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected 
offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage,
each late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north-
to-south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will 
shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by
Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing 
winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into 
the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

$$
Delgado