Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 200429
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W, south of 16N, 
and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 06N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1028 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends westward to
the Gulf waters supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds
and moderate seas south of 25N and between 88W and 94W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
Generally dry conditions are found across the basin, except for a
few showers in the nearshore waters of western Florida, Veracruz
and Tamaulipas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United
States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across
the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf,
pulsing to strong Wed night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Beginning Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and tranquil 
marine conditions should prevail through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the islands dominates
the Caribbean Sea. The tight pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the 
central Caribbean, with the highest winds occurring off NW 
Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong
easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north
of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong
trades over the S central Caribbean into the weekend. Fresh to 
strong trades will also occur over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. 
Large E to SE swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters 
tonight. Looking ahead, there will be a resumption of the fresh 
to strong trades over the Gulf of Honduras starting Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The interaction between an upper level low near 29N75W and a
surface trough in the area results in scattered showers between
70W and 78W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W,
is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge near Bermuda.
Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas are
occurring off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of 27N and west of
55W.

Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near
31N38W and continues southwestward to 27N59W. Moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas are present north of 28N and between 27W
and 45W. An expansive ridge dominates the rest of the central and
eastern Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8
ft are found south of 24N and west of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a deep layer trough E of the 
Bahamas will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms through 
Thu. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola 
afternoons and evenings into the weekend. Elsewhere, surface 
ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain 
quiescent through the weekend.

$$
Delgado