Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 220933
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 39W/40W, south of 11N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited. 

A tropical wave is moving westward across the central Caribbean.
Its axis is along 77W, south of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. 
The southern portion of the wave extends into the EPAC along the
coast of Colombia where it is enhancing some shower and thunderstorm
activity. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N24W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed south of 07N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of 03N between 20W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region.
This system supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the
Straits of Florida with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, a gentle to
moderate wind flow, with slight to moderate seas prevail. A narrow
band of showers and thunderstorms is noted in the eastern Gulf 
near 87W from 24N to 28N. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic
to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period.
The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures 
over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to
moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the
weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off 
NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours 
due to local effects associated with a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds based on altimeter
data. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between
high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low. Moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms are affecting portions of Cuba, the area 
between Cuba and Jamaica, and Hispaniola, including nearby waters.
Pockets of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, 
are affecting the remainder of the basin generating isolated to 
scattered passing showers. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north
of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America
will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean
into early next week. These trades will continue to bring rough 
seas, particularly offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong trades will 
also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate
trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large mid to upper-level low located NE of the Bahamas continues
to support the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across the waters from 23N to 28N between 65W and 75W. A surface
trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, is analyzed from
31N23W to 23N50W. High pressure of 1025 mb centered E of Bermuda 
dominates the remainder of the forecast region. Under this weather
pattern, fresh N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed between
the W coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that winds 
are pulsing to strong force off northern Hispaniola. Elsewhere, a 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid to upper- 
level low will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms mainly NE of the Bahamas between 65W and 75W. 
Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and locally 
heavy rain reducing visibility. The low is forecast to lift N of 
the area by early this evening. East winds will pulse fresh to 
strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings 
going into early next week. A cold front will clip the NE waters 
by Sun night into Mon followed by fresh NE winds and moderate to 
rough seas. At the same time, expect increasing winds roughly 
across the area S of 24N and W of 60W, including the waters 
between Cuba and the Bahamas as the pressure gradient tightens 
there.

$$
GR