Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 121754
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 03N to 16N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 05N
to 19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The wave axis is 
clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby 
convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W south of
16N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant 
convection is presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W south 
of 18N, moving westward near 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible 
near its axis. This wave is likely to merge with the one ahead 
of it in the near future.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 76W south 
of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection
is presently occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 
15N12W, and extends southwestward to 07N20W and to 06N25W, then
ITCZ to 06N29W. It resumes at 06N39W to 06N31W and to inland
French Guiana at 04N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection 
within 240 nm northwest of the trough between 16W-20W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 
38W-46W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche, with a 
1007 mb low analyzed near 20N94W. A trough extends from the low 
to 22N96W, and another trough extends from the low to inland 
Mexico just south of Veracruz and continues to inland Mexico near 
19N99W. Increasing moderate to strong convection is seen from 19N 
to 22N between 92W and 96W. Moderate to fresh east to southeast 
winds are within about 300 nm northeast of the low along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic has 
a ridge axis that extends westward across Florida and into the NE
Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the 
ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft over this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate southeast winds 
prevail across the western Gulf along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 
Mostly gentle southerly winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas 
of 2 to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to be 
only marginally conducive for development of the broad area 
of low pressure before it moves inland over eastern Mexico late 
Sat or Sun. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary, but 
there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive
for any development. The pressure gradient between the low 
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to 
strong southeast winds along with moderate to rough seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively weak high pressure is over the western Atlantic while
a pair of tropical waves are moving rather quickly across the 
central Caribbean. Latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate fresh to strong southeast winds across the far northwest
Caribbean west of about 80W. These winds are occurring between 
the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over 
northern Central America. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over this part of
the basin. This pattern is also supporting fresh to locally
strong trades over the south-central and southeastern portions of
the basin, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and 
northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh 
trades are elsewhere along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over 
the northwest part of the sea from 18N to 21N between 82W and 87W,
and over the eastern portion of Hispaniola. 
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will generally remain 
in place through early next week, with its associated gradient 
supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun, 
as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region. 
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to 
strong southeast winds and rough seas will also persist over the 
northwestern Caribbean, mainly west of about 83W, including the 
Gulf of Honduras through Sat evening. Expect active showers and 
thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent 
Yucatan waters through early Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1020 mb over the western Atlantic is near 
27.5N68W, a with a broad ridge stretching westward toward Florida.
A weak trough extends from near 23N69W to the southeastern Bahamas 
and to the northeast tip of Cuba. No significant convection is
near the trough. To the northeast, a stationary front enters the 
area through 31N39W and continues to 29N45W, where it begins to
dissipate to 29N49W, then continues as a trough to 29N52.5W and 
to a weak 1019 mb low near 30N57W. A trough extends from the low
to near 28N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 27N to 
29N between 53W and 56W, and along a line from 27N57W to 25N62W. 
An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is southeast of 
a broad mid to uppe-level trough roughly from 19N to 24N between
62W and 69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of 
26N between 72W and 79W.
 
Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 31N31W. High 
pressure covers the area north of 18N between 18W and 50W. The 
related pressure gradient is generally maintaining moderate to 
fresh trades south of about 21N and between 34W and 61W. Seas 
are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Mostly gentle trades along 
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 21N and east of 55W while
light to gentle south to southwest winds and low seas of 2 to 4 
ft are north of 21N and west of 55W. Satellite scatterometer data
passes detected these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge 
will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak 
low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the 
forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to 
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern 
will support moderate east to southeast trades south of 22N and 
gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh southwest 
winds will develop across the northwest forecast waters north 
of 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal
system moves across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong 
winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Aguirre