Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 112215
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient 
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower 
pressure in Colombia and Panama will support fresh to near gale- 
force winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the 
Windward Passage, and the water between Cuba and Jamaica, into 
tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore Colombia.
Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 12 ft (2.5 
to 4 m) range.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell of 12 to 13 ft
persists north of 26N and east of 50W, with 12 to 16 second 
periods. Seas are forecast to slowly decay to less than 12 ft (4 
m) from SW to NE through early this evening as the swell loses 
energy.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and 
continues southwestward to 02N25W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 01N35W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
from 03N to 07N between 13W and 17W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is moving across the Texas coast into the northwest 
Gulf this afternoon. A surface ridge extends from 1024 mb high
pressure over the northern Bahamas, across central Florida and
through the northern Gulf. This pattern will support gentle 
breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas persist across the Gulf ahead of the 
front.

For the forecast, the front will enter the northwest Gulf, but
then lift north of the basin. This will leave high pressure in 
control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the 
end of the work week, bringing mainly gentle SE winds. Southerly 
winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds this weekend ahead
of a cold front that will moves cross the west and central waters
Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are possible in the northern 
Gulf with this frontal system. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

See the Special Features section above for details on a gale 
warning in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.

1024 mb high pressure is analyzed over the northern Bahamas. The 
gradient between it and relatively lower pressure to the south is 
supporting fresh to near gale-force northeast winds over the 
central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and waters south of the 
Greater Antilles. Seas over the central Caribbean are in 8 to 10 
ft range. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with 
seas of 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell are over the eastern
part of the basin while seas of 4 to 6 ft are west of about 80W, 
except for slightly lower seas of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Large, long- period northwest to north swell is bringing
seas of 7 to 8 ft through the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over
the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support
fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean, including
the Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, 
into tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore 
Colombia. Seas, associated with a northerly swell event, will 
begin to gradually subside across the Mona Passage, Anegada 
Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters tonight into Thu. Late 
this week into the weekend, the pressure gradient will relax, 
leading to moderate to fresh trade winds dominating the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
significant west to northwest swell that is impacting portions
of the central subtropical Atlantic. 

Recent scatterometer satellite passes confirmed part of an area of
fresh to strong SW winds north of 28N between northeast Florida 
and Bermuda, ahead of a cold front moving through the southeast 
U.S. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. Farther 
south, the scatterometer pass also showed calm to light breezes 
along a surface ridge reaching along 25N/26N west of 55W, to 
include 1024 mb high pressure over the northern Bahamas. Moderate
trade winds are noted south of the ridge. Farther east, a 
stationary front extends from the central Azores southwestward to 
21N50W, then continues as a trough to the northern Leeward 
Islands. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted east of the front,
north of 27N. Over the eastern Atlantic, a surface ridge extends
from 1025 mb high pressure over the Canary Islands to 25N40W. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted southeast of the ridge,
from off the coast of North Africa to the tropical Atlantic. In
addition to the large swell, 8 to 11 ft NW swell dominates the 
waters east of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the 
forecast region. On the NW side of the high, southwesterly winds 
are on increase across the northern forecast waters. These winds 
are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds by tonight, ahead of 
the next cold front. This front will enter NW waters Thu, then 
cross the area through through Fri night. Looking ahead, more 
strong S to SW winds are likely offshore the SE U.S. starting Sun,
ahead of another cold front. 

$$
Christensen