Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 010439
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 21W from 04N 
to 19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
evident from 10N to 19N between 16W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
wave's environment.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 12N to 17N between 64W and 69W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident 
near this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and dives 
southward to a 1010 mb low pres near 16N24W and then continues 
southwestward to 07N43W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N47W to
06N53W. No significant convection is noted at this time. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends into the 
Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to  
moderate seas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level 
trough north of the area is producing a few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, mainly along the coast, 
while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the remainder of 
the basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate 
winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh E to
NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula 
nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend and into next 
week as an upper-level trough and cold front at the surface drop
southward toward the Gulf states. Fresh southwest winds look to 
develop ahead of the front over the far northern Gulf late this
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin forces fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central 
Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off 
NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas 
are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the 
lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, rough seas offshore Colombia will slowly 
subside through Sat. A persistent enhanced pressure gradient 
across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades in the 
central basin through this weekend and much of next week. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then 
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds for the remainder of the 
period. A tropical wave, currently over the eastern Caribbean near
66W, is accompanied by increasing showers and thunderstorms along
with gusty winds. The wave will quickly move westward across the 
remainder of the basin through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 28N and 
west of 70W. Fresh SW winds are evident in this area, with 5-7 ft
seas. Elsewhere, the remainder of the subtropical and tropical 
Atlantic is influenced by a 1025 mb high pressure area centered 
near 33N50W. This pattern is supporting mostly moderate NE to E 
winds and 4-6 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge will lift N
to near 28N by Sun and change little through next week. The 
gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the 
forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds 
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and 
west of 70W through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse
just north of Hispaniola at night through the period. 

$$
ERA